Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I agree with you, LJ, that the mill funding hasn't yet been clarified. However, the announcements on the Silver Wing and Champion mines in December used the words "CGFI has acquired". You don't make that kind of announcement unless the deal has closed. It seems pretty apparent to me that the funds were found. IMO I doubt that they would have used available funds to purchase new property unless they felt secure that they would have the funding to pay the mortgage and open the mill. I'm only speculating on the source but it seems logical. The 10Q should give us some answers there.
I would refer you back to my post #59843. I wouldn't expect any funding announcement. However, we're probably due for a progress report and there will be some SEC filing soon for the end of the quarter (Form 10Q).
I agree 567. Any targets I post are only opinions (although based on some known facts) meant to keep PPS expectations somewhat rational. When people speculate on $3 billion in reserves they are probably headed for some disappointment.
That said, I'm also very optimistic that my targets are achievable and may very well be surpassed.
I'm conservatively targeting about $7 or $8 within three years based on what we know today, Guyer's revenue and margin estimates, and assuming no further major dilution (see my post # 58965). Dilution isn't necessarily bad if it increases assets (e.g. ownership of additional reserves of ore). My calculation doesn't take into account speculation and the effect of reserve ownership but is based solely on mill operations. Consequently, actual pps could be much higher.
THE FINANCING IS A DONE DEAL! I think you folks are smoking something regarding this Jan 6 financing date. The transactions have already closed escrow (see 12/12/12 & 12/18/12 announcements). How many of you have closed escrow on a home without having the financing lined up? Anyone here sold a home without knowing how the buyer was going to pay you? January 6 was only a delivery date and target closing date on the offer to purchase. Chances are the funds and stock were delivered before the announcements in December.
Not sure about the source but the following should be a hint:
LAKEWOOD, CO -- (Marketwire) -- 07/12/12 -- Colorado Goldfields Inc. (OTCQB: CGFIA) (PINKSHEETS: CGFIA) announces that it has paid down a total of $450,000 of the existing promissory note on the Pride of the West Mill through the same funding facility announced in June 2010, leaving a balance of approximately $200,000 plus accrued interest. It is anticipated that this funding source will also assist the Company in funding operations through permit approval and into the construction phase of the Pride of the West Mill.
The Company has also received an extension until December 31, 2012 of the loan on the Company's Pride of the West Mill. The loan was originally due to expire on July 1, 2012, at which time Colorado Goldfields would have had to repay the balance in full.
1st SB Partners Ltd., a consulting firm providing strategic advisory services in the micro-cap realm, headquartered in New York City, was instrumental in arranging for and maintaining the financing facility for the Company.
I think we'll be at least $5/share within two years, probably more if there are significant proven reserves in the mines.
Hey, let him short for a while more. I've brought my average pps down to $.24 (112,000 shares and counting - had 160 million pre-split). Don't mind buying some more in the .02's and .03's. Pretty soon I'll be breaking even at $.10/share.
Good time to buy!
The incentives officers have is to grow their own equity. They can't do this if they are continually diluting shares. That's a no win game unless the share price eventually goes up. Their incentive is to maximize the number of equity shares they own when the share price starts rising. Keep in mind that the bulk of the shares they own are restricted and can't be sold at the time they are awarded. If the share price goes down they are loosing money and have no control over what the price will be when they eventually can sell.
Keep in mind that the B shares do not participate in the Earnings per Share calculation and do not impact the A share price. Voting power doesn't mean much for common stock holders in most companies. All you need is control of 51% of the votes for them to do whatever they want and most companies guard this control by making sure that it's held by insiders or, in many cases, one individual or family. Contrary to popular belief, corporations are not democracies.
What's Ruby Trust Mine got to do with CGFI?
I wouldn't read too much into this. It simply says that he failed to register with the state of Arizona before conducting business there and was slapped with a $2,000 fine. This happened in 2006.
More current info on his qualifications at the following link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Searchlight-Minerals-Corp-iw-2926403341.html
As I said before, see my post 59159. Financing seems to be in place. Also check post 56965*. After all planned shares are issued we should have in the neighborhood of 83,000,000 shares outstanding. This assumes all authorized stock options are issued to employees and contractors (40M shares) which is unlikely until production starts. Most of these are restricted shares. I agree with previous post that the float should be less than 15M shares.
*in post 56965 I inadvertantly used "K" instead of "M" to denote millions of shares.
The problem with your argument, Hemi, is that you would still own your home after your missed payments. Bank has to foreclose, you declare bankruptcy ... No indication that company is in any danger of not paying their bills. Sure it can happen. But by definition any pre-revenue company lives under that danger every day of it's existence. What's new that would make anyone believe that there's a problem?
LAKEWOOD, CO -- (Marketwire) -- 12/12/12 -- Colorado Goldfields Inc. (OTCQB: CGFI) announces that it has acquired the Champion Mine
LAKEWOOD, CO -- December 18, 2012 -- Colorado Goldfields Inc. (OTCQB: CGFI) announces that it has acquired the Silver Wing Mine
"has acquired" means "now owns".
The property has in effect closed escrow.
Plain english! Are you trying to argue that because there may be a mortgage that the mortgagee really owns it? If that's the argument few of us own our homes.
As for the funding source, see my post # 59159
"never shorted stock.hand on bible.I flip dips"
Same thing - sell high, buy back low, make money, repeat.
Gosh Hemi! You must sit up all night thinking of new ways to say the same old thing so you can scare some more fools into selling their shares. You must have enough to retire from all your shorts by now.
Anyway, "conditional" means "do x,y and z and you're good to go". Plan is in place to get it done by summer. Yes it's possible that it doesn't get done but it's also possible the world will end on Friday like the Mayan crazies predict. We have to deal in probabilities. Right now it's more probable the mill will open than not.
Only problem is that that would cause more dilution. It may be something to do, however, after revenue starts coming in(like a dividend).
The $3M was for the Champion Mine (and has already been consumated) not the Silver Wing mine.
Acquired = Bought
If terms of deal changed they have to amend their 10K and we should see a new filing soon. There is no indication that that is the case (just your speculation).
LAKEWOOD, CO -- (Marketwire) -- 12/18/12 -- Colorado Goldfields Inc. (OTCQB: CGFI) announces that it has acquired the Silver Wing Mine,
To me this is plain English - they own it!
Terms were announced on Form 10K on 11/16/12 (it's not nice to lie on a 10K - not to mention a violation of SEC regs)
- 12M shares of 4 year restricted stock
- $110,353 cash
- 5% smelter royalty for 99 years
Sounds like a good deal to me for a resource of $141M+
Does anyone seriously think the DRMS would even consider granting a permit if they could only store 2 months worth of waste? Get real! Somebody's arithmetic is off.
The funding has been there since July. See my post #59159. I think they're using some stock to pay salaries (last count about 4 employees) and small contractors but at the current PPS they would have to spend about $25 to $30 million before they would burn through 1 billion shares and need another reverse split.
Please check my post #58965. Even at 83 million projected shares (conservative estimate of current planned issues), our price per share should be between $.54 and $1.13 during first year of revenue (hopefully 2013). Price now is speculation, supply and demand and shorting.
It is very common for public companies to have AS of 1 billion or more shares when their OS are only a fraction of that. This simply gives them flexibility to take advantage of opportunities and funding needs as they arise and shorten the regulatory timeframe to get additional shares approved. In a typical company there is very little correlation between authorized shares and OS. There is no evidence or reason to believe that because 1 billion shares are authorized they will all be issued.
Yes, there may be more dilution before we see revenue, but anyone who says we're going through anything near 1 billion shares is merely speculating with a SWAG. Scottrade, Morgan Stanley and Quotestream all show current OS at 43.7 million. If TA tells us 53.4 they're probaly counting some additional reserved or restricted shares.
My own calculation (again counting restricted shares issued or in plan) comes to around 83,000,000. The actual float (tradable shares) is somewhere between 7 and 12 million. I agree with 567tbd in post #59160 what we're seeing is short sellers pushing the price down. The price today is purely a function of supply, demand and speculation.
Regarding all of the panicked discussion about funding, did all of you miss this:
LAKEWOOD, CO -- (Marketwire) -- 07/12/12 -- Colorado Goldfields Inc. (OTCQB: CGFIA) (PINKSHEETS: CGFIA) announces that it has paid down a total of $450,000 of the existing promissory note on the Pride of the West Mill through the same funding facility announced in June 2010, leaving a balance of approximately $200,000 plus accrued interest. It is anticipated that this funding source will also assist the Company in funding operations through permit approval and into the construction phase of the Pride of the West Mill[color=red][/color].
The Company has also received an extension until December 31, 2012 of the loan on the Company's Pride of the West Mill. The loan was originally due to expire on July 1, 2012, at which time Colorado Goldfields would have had to repay the balance in full.
1st SB Partners Ltd., a consulting firm providing strategic advisory services in the micro-cap realm, headquartered in New York City, was instrumental in arranging for and maintaining the financing facility for the Company.
and
LAKEWOOD, CO--(Marketwire - June 3, 2010) - Colorado Goldfields Inc. (OTCBB: CGFIA) announced today that the Company closed a funding arrangement with an institutional investor in the amount of $1 million. The financing will, over the course of the facility timeline, provide funding for the Company's aged debt and for working capital requirements including work detail on the reactivation of The Pride of the West Mill.
"This funding facility will support the execution of the Company's business plan, the re-activation of the Pride of the West Mill, while contemporaneously launching an aggressive exploration program at our Brooklyn and King Solomon Mines," said Lee Rice, President and CEO of Colorado Goldfields.
"There is no question that over the past few years the challenges surrounding capital availability has slowed our progress. Now, Colorado Goldfields has the financing vehicle to meaningfully begin executing our business model. Our shareholders to whom we owe much gratitude for their continued support and confidence should now have a comfort level that many, if not all, of our milestone objectives may soon be reached," stated C. Stephen Guyer, CFO for Colorado Goldfields.
I really don't think we'll see much price movement until late spring or summer unless there's some annuouncement about assay results confirming large mineral/ore resources. Perhaps we'll see some more dips but I only look at these as additional opportunities to buy.
I'm not focused on financing. Guyer seems to find it as he needs it. He probably doesn't want to give away the store unless and until he has to. I think the only additional dilution that occurs before production begins will be to acquire additional properties if there are any out there that can add significant resource.
I'm with you Johnnie. Folks, there are strict SEC regulations on what management can and cannot do regarding giving out information. It's one thing to do a press release but talking to any of you on the phone would be giving you insider information (completely illegal for both of you).
As for selling out and moving on, I just don't see it. Guyer and Rice are no spring chickens (both 60+). I could be wrong but they probably see this as their last hurah and chance to leave a mark on the industry. Being almost 62 myself I'm staring at retirement. I certainly wouldn't want to start all over with something new that could take another 5 to 10 years to develop.
Other than the PPS or timing of events which they can't really control, I haven't seen anything in the past two years to suggest they are misleading us. If our expectations haven't been met, maybe we've been expecting too much too soon.
Good points. But wouldn't converting debt to equity have a more or less neutral effect on the bottom line. You're eliminating payment on the debt which should actually improve profits.
In any event, barring a drop in PPS below .005, I doubt that all employee & contractor SOP stock will be issued, especially within the first year. Consequently, there should be a lot of slack in the prediction of shares outstanding.
All I'm trying to do here is get some rationality back into where people think the stock price will be in the next few years. Painting too rosy a picture leads to too much disallusionment and could hurt the price going forward.
Some very good observations. We can only make projections based on what's publicly available today. Regarding your points,
1.)The company's latest annual report shows Total Liabilities and Stockholder deficit of just $2.1 million which is pretty manageable if you're making $15 million plus per year
2.)Some of the work to bring things into production will probably be paid for out of the 40 million shares allocated for the employee and contractor SOP's which I've included in my calculation. Bonds or other debt instruments could also be used in lieu of stocks. At this point there's just not enough information here to make a better prediction.
3.)Most of the convertible notes were issued pre-split and were diluted with the rest of the shares. I have not tried to go back and calculate the impact on the EPS but I would be interested if anyone could tell us the total number of potential shares that could be issued this way. I suspect that it's no more than a couple million.
As far as management salaries are concerned, I assume that until revenue starts comming in, these will be accounted for by the 20 million shares allocated to the employee SOP.
Again, my predictions on PPS are a best guess based on available information. They could be off significantly but so can the predictions of any stock analyst. If the speculators get involved and the stock starts trading at 40 times earnings instead of 18 to 21 I could be way off. All we can do is adjust the target prices as more information becomes available.
There's no rational need for another reverse split. You could see the last one coming with 35 billion shares and these revenue projections it would have taken years to get out of sub-dollar range. I was just hoping they'd let the price get to about $.10 before they did it (I owned 150 million shares at .0001). Now they have a respectable stock price projection once revenue starts coming in. At worst case we might see some further purchases which could boost their reserves but dilute some more in the short term. However, 83 million shares is pretty low for a company with these projections. Guyer's been following a pretty sound plan and I'm hoping, like the rest of you, that it eventually pays off.
Here are some realistic PPS projections based on some conservative P/E ratios and Guyer's revenue and margin estimates for the next several years.
FY13 FY14 FY15
Revenue (millions) $12M $53M $65M
Gross Margin 37% 45% 49%
EPS .0535 .2873 .3837
PPS @10xEPS $ .54 $2.87 $3.84
PPS @18xEPS Median * $ .96 $5.17 $6.91
PPS @21.1xEPS Average ** $1.13 $6.06 $8.10
* 18xEPS is the median Forward PE of several similar companies in the mining industry
** 21.1xEPS is the average Forward PE of several similar companies in the mining industry
PE estimates were taken from Thompson Reuters stock report on ANV (Allied Nevada Gold) which Scottrade considers to be a peer of CGFI
The EPS projections assume that Class B shares are not counted in the EPS calculation (can anyone confirm whether this assumption is true?) and it also assumes that all employee SOP allocations (20k shares) and Consultant SOP allocations (20k shares) are issued along with the shares for the Silver Wing and Champion mines (36k shares)for a total of $83,000,128 shares outstanding. This last assumption is probaly too high but as I said the estimates are conservative. The projections also do not take into account any extra bump in PE that CGFI may get from resource estimates and speculation (I've seen several comments mentioning $10 billion in reserves - where'd that number come from?).
I welcome any comments
Hi folks,
I've owned CGFI for about two years and just discovered this blog. I've got my own CGFI blog on Zach's
insert-text-here
which has had a lot of reads but few comments.I've made some PPS projections based on PE ratios and assumed earnings but it's hard to make a good prediction when the OS keeps changing. I've found some good new info here. Several references to $3,000,000 in assets. Where's that number come from? Like many of you I still have faith that this stock will be a winner. question is how big and how fast.