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The difference between us, Hemi, is that you look at stocks through the eyes of a trader, whereas most of us on this board view CGFI as an investor ala Warren Buffet (i.e "the best stock to buy is the one you never have to sell"). You're absolutely right that from a trader's standoint, CGFI sucks and the best way to play it short term is to short the stock. Most of us here are in for the long term. We feel that the business plan makes sense and that mangement has been executing according to that plan (i.e. get the mill opened ASAP then focus on opening the mines). We'll know within a year which approach has the better payoff.
Nice post flicker. However, I would point out that the problem with our pps is not just a lack of confidence but a shortage of enough investors to soak up all of the new shares hitting the market. We've been averaging multiple days each week with volumes over 5 million shares. It's just human nature that if, for example, I've bought all the shares I want at $.005, the share price has to drop significantly to lure me into buying some more. There's no time for the price to recover before more shares hit the market. You'll notice that whenever we have a lull in volume the price goes up.
This isn't Guyer's fault. He's just focused on raising money to open the mill. You could argue that he needs to hire an IR guy but that would also require paying that person. He has to juggle his funding priorities. Not an easy job right now.
Just noticed my typo. Post should have stated 500 million B shares not 500k.
Nothing has changed in the last 30 days except a few million more shares have been issued which we all predicted would happen. We still only have about 125 million OS and everybody here sounds like the company is about to disolve. Even at 200 or 400 million OS this company would be a good deal if they can open the mill. Nobody knows what their financial situation is today yet sanbruno is ready to throw in the towel for this year all on a bunch of speculation. The fact that they're raising cash should actually be encouraging. The business plan is being executed (and no Hemi, it's not going into Guyer's pockets).
Let's all just be patient until the next 10Q comes out (probably by mid April) so we can deal in some facts.
That number includes about 500,000 B shares and is months out of date. OS is at about 125 million.
Something definitely seems to be happening but I'm not sure what. Hard to believe only 44 shareholders when we have about 80 people on this board alone. Only 6 million shares not owned by insiders out of 92+ million. Are they setting up for a pump and dump or is something better on the horizon. It can be interpreted either way but until there's more news I doubt we'll see a sustained increase in pps.
According to the 10K-A filed on 3/22/13...
I was just being sarcastic flicker. If anyone deserves investigation for manipulating the stock it's those folks on the fake coloradogold website.
I'm also curious at what will be on the next 10Q in April. Company fact sheet is reporting over 6 million market value on assets. Will this show up on financials? If so, our book value could be many times our market value. That should drive up investor interest.
From the last 10Q...
There's really not enough information right now to be able to explain much. Going over the last 10Q, I see requirements for about $5,000,000 in funding. Over $3,160,000 of that is due to the Silver Wing Mine. In addition, they were planning to map the mine and determine what to do for drainage and whether a discharge permit would be required. Another $470,000 is due on 6/1 on a note for the mill. There was also $343k in accounts payable outstanding on 11/30/12. The question is how much of this requirement can be differed or addressed with some creative financing.
We've been focused entirely on opening the mill and haven't taken into account the fact that the mines would also need to be funded and developed and prior bills need to be paid. We just have to wait and see what if any funding Guyer has been able to arrange. Most penny stocks at this stage might resort to a pump and dump IR group. I think it's encouraging that we haven't seen that from CGFI.
The last convertible notes referenced on the 10q were issued on 12/13/2013 for $85,000 and were able to be converted immediately. I think what we're seeing lately are newly issued non-restricted convertible shares.
Per 8K on 2/28/13 he "Acquired" 5 million shares on 2/26/13 for $.03.
Acquired means "Bought" in my version of english.
What's your source on Singer sale??
Regarding the convertible debt and credit line, from my post # 61475 and the last 10Q...
I've allowed for the discount although the entire estimate is very ballpark. Point is that several hundred thousand has already been raised. We'll know more after the 10Q.
February 14,2013 - News release
"Colorado Goldfields Announces Part 2 of NI 43-101 Technical Report for Champion Mine; Total Estimated Resource Valued at $232 Million"
That was just one month ago. They've averaged over one communication per month for the past two years I've followed them (few companies communicate even that often). They're current on all of their SEC reports. Board members have visited the mill and reported progress. Just because you can't call management every day and talk with them doesn't make them illegitimate.
You think it's too low
Assuming Guyer's projections of $50 million+ revenue in the first full year of operation are right, at 10 times earnings the stock should be worth roughly $2.50/share((50,0000,000/200,000,000)* 10 =$.25x10). Typical multiples in this industry are closer to 20 EPS. Consequently, if all goes according to plan we should be at least roughly worth $2 to $5 per share within the next two years.
Don't worry so much about today's price. The important thing will be the amount the OS is diluted before we're profitable. Of course the lower the price goes the more dilution will be required.
Based on a subjective eyeballing of the volumes and average selling price since the last 10Q I'd have to estimate that CGFI has raised at least $400k (maybe more). I'm sure it's all going towards advancing the business plan but it's hard to say what's been paid for and what requirements remain. We'll see on the next 10Q but as I've said before, even with 200 million OS we could still expect a pps of $2 to $5 per share once the mill is producing revenue at full capacity. That doesn't count any profits from mining or the value attached to proven reserves.
I agree about the supply and demand. However, what's unpredictable is how long the supply will continue. We still don't know what $$ requirement CGFI has to open the mill. On the other hand, we've had three multi-million share transactions so far today (two for 1.9 million shares). Someone is still buying big-time.
It's really hard to make an OS prediction right now. We don't know how much has been raised in the past three months and whether it has all been spent or banked for future expenses. My prediction of closer to 100 million OS was predicated on a pps of .01+. We've been below that for some time. We'll have to wait for the 10Q in April before we make any more predictions.
Perhaps there is an ongoing negotiation that hasn't yet been finalized, in which case there would be no event to report. No default has been declared, no new deal can yet be announced - in effect a non event.
Is an event that doesn't happen an event??? Is black a color? Just asking.
Right on scooter! I've been saying the same thing for months. Good PR's now may spike the price temporarily but any lasting gains in pps will take investors seeing a clear path to revenue. Save it up for the grand finale.
Hey Guyer, time release the "Biker Chicks"!
I'm currently at about $.036/share. I had invested about $26k before the RS and I've added about $11k since in small chunks. Yes, I believe this company is real and that management is not trying to intentionally rip us off. I believe they have a business plan and have been following it and making adjustments as necessary as any good management would. I believe that if they are successful we'll see the pps at multi dollar range within a few years and certainly above $.036/share
I'm a little tired of hearing everybody complaining about the pps and Guyer not communicating. CGFI is current on all of it's reporting requirements. If you look at their PR's they average more than one per month. Not many companies do much better. As I keep reminding people, SEC regulations are a minefield and larger companies will have their legal staff scrutinize each communication. Would you folks rather have Guyer working on getting the mill opened or keeping you all happy.
Nothing Guyer or anyone affiliated with CGFI says will have much lasting impact on the pps until all of the ducks are lined up and the mill is set to produce revenue. Until then relax and load up on some more shares while you can get them cheap. I'd be much more upset if the price were still $.50 and we had all of this dilution - I'd be sitting on about 50k shares instead of one million with a lot less upside potential. I'm still smiling
I'm still not convinced we'll reach 200 million shares. It depends on how much cash has been raised in the last quarter and whether it has all been spent. Based on the OS, Guyer could have already raised and banked $500,000 toward the mill opening expenses. He may also get back some of the $500k bond money in the next few months. Consequently, he may have about $1 million to work with before the mill opens. On the other hand, there may be other aquisitions or unforcasted expenses to take care of, or even extra cash put down on the two new mines. We just don't have enough info yet. Everything is just speculation.
However, it would make some sense to do maximum dilution now to raise any needed cash before the run up to the mill opening so that the pps will have some upward momentum as revenue starts coming in.
Nothing as changed since my post (#61801)...
I'm not sure IR is the big problem you think it is. Sure, it would be nice to know more. However, just for comparison, look at another mining company like NSRSE. No PR's or SEC filings for almost a year, over 600 million OS, no known assets yet the pps is holding over $.01/share. Go figure
If they let out some information the problem becomes "What do you do for an encore once the price starts dropping again?" I'm not sure if March 6 was a material event or not. After all, they've announced previously that the notes were due on that date (the fact that they were paid, in itself, would be a non-event. However, where the money came from might be reportable if it is a new source) I'm not sure what the allowed time frame is for reporting these things.
I agree with you on the shorting. The pps is dropping because there are not enough of us investors to absorb all the shares issued to meet cash requirements. We all buy a little every time the price drops some more because we see a better bargain than on our last purchase. On the one hand it's allowing all of us true believers to load up on more shares but on the other hand it does look a little scary and depressing at times. I, for one, am still buying.
10Q's have been comming out about 45 days after the end of each quarter. That would place the next one around mid April. Guyer may be holding back to make a bigger splash later.
I used to have a TradeStation account which was really nice because you could see each individual bid and ask from all MM's consolidated. However, I was paying Professional User rates and I couldn't continue to justify the expense. The big guys have access to these tools and we are at a big disadvantage.
VNDM has been hiding shares. That 10,000 could be 10 million for all we know. The current level 2 shows NITE jumped ahead with an ask of .0064 for 55,000 shares followed by that 10,000 for VNDM then clear sailing to .01. However, each MM only shows their lowest ask price so there could be other asks under each of these two MM at higher prices before the .01 ask from PUMA and MERQ
Here's Level 2
CGFI Level 2
I read in one of the previous 10Q's that they essentially gave up on the Brooklyn (I think it had to do with the ability to drain the water out). In any event, they didn't renew their option to buy it.
Assuming most of this trading was from new stock issued by the company, CGFI has probably raised about $500,000 over the past 30 to 60 days. Maybe Guyer wants to show that he has enough cash to open the mill on the next 10Q. We should see it about mid April.
??? Where's that quote from AK? Are they talking about CGFI?
Hi Flicker,
I just want to make sure that you're aware that Guyer and Rice are constrained in what they can tell you by securities regulations. They would naturally not want to talk to an investor for fear of unintentionally giving out insider information. There are stiff penalties that can fall on either them or you or both of you. At best you can communicate your desire for them to release more public info.