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I must say FBG if we end this endeavor at only $25 then the only real celebration should be in finally putting us out of our misery, given how promising Advaxis seemed to many who have been here since OTC. At that point our cruiseship should be christened "Good Ship Lolipop" for the multi year sucker ride we've had to endure but at least it beats complete failure which is what 10mil short shares staying short at today's closing price under $6.50 would imply. GL all LTSH's!
MP --- For the most part I agree with your thesis that we will accrue greater value the longer we remain independent. Regarding the choice you lay out: $2.5B vs. $10B (or more) let's discuss when we get there! I certainly think the timetable to 2.5B has been accelerated as the table has been set for getting back to a realistic valuation based on both our short and long term potential. Let's face it, many who've been here observing for past several years have always known Dan's strong suit wasn't negotiating with Pharma but rather selling shares at a discount and thus diluting existing shareholders. Looking forward to the day we can take up this discussion again...
Think we all gotta say FBG, you get the last word on the subject of DOC, LOL! On one hand sad and too bad but on the other a much needed change and truth be told, long overdue. Needless to say it should be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow and into next week. I for one think the table is set for some retracement of our lost valuation and given the ridiculously large short position that exists now that our major impediment to success has been removed will only add fuel to any fire. Some have even speculated that he negligently hid or kept buyout offers from the Board because he deemed them too low based on his long term perspective. Here's hoping, that kind of news would get us out of single digits on the way to $20+ PDQ! Good luck all LTSH's.
Copy that Iggy, hopefully you're right that the large players are finding it impossible to garner the necessary shares that they require to unwind their hedged positions. It would be so gratifying for us retail if we can endure this onslaught and see it through to the other side but obviously this has become more a test of wills than anything resembling standard risk/reward investment analysis. Please note I always appreciate your steadfast belief in the company's science though we might sometimes part ways on how best to capitalize on it. But yes, lets cross our fingers and hold tightly to our shares, I for one ain't going anywhere.
FBG --- As many here have expressed,the share grabbing could be forgiven if there was performance to warrant his outsized greed. Unfortunately that hasn't been the case and this is where I take issue. His strategy as evidenced by this latest cashless collaboration is to further kick the income generating can down the road and wait until results are borne out. And of course this should reward us all but the clock is ticking and every second works against we retail shareholders true interests which is to see validation both clinically and monetarily within our lifetimes (kidding for all us LTSH's.) Dan has always I contend been captive to mistakingly prone to generating activity rather than achievement, witness the annual meeting with the extensive plans highlighting more activity in our future with a vague reference to monetizing these activities. My critique of his stewardship and performance has and continues to be that I wish he could just sell something every now and then (besides more shares!)
C'mon Iggy, Bristol's stock isn't the one that tanked post news of their for all intents and purposes freebie collaboration with us and last I looked BMY is in no danger of having to dilute their shareholders to remain a viable concern in the next year or so. But we will be forced to further dilute shareholders within the next couple years, absent any income. Regarding our valuation, that is the fact of the matter; We have been priced for further dilution. I don't necessarily agree that will be the case but that ultimately is what makes a market. Regarding DOC's stewardship and impact on our valuation I have always believed he's playing the "long game" and will let our clinical success(s) ultimately decide our fate regardless of how long it may take for them to be borne out and monetized. Ultimately time is on his side (given the status quo) especially when one considers that we shareholders are literally paying for his buying shares on a monthly basis along with his timely share grabs. As this process continues is it any wonder that many shareholder's may begin to ask out loud: How long will this process take? Because unless we are consistently buying shares like Dan we eventually will get washed out of our share of any payoff arising in the future and the longer to fruition, the more this becomes the case.
Mr. know it all and Exel --- like your conclusions and especially: "Crazy run up!" Or as Alabama tells Clarence in True Romance: "but don't forget, it goes the other way, too!" If one accepts that our price action the past couple years has been suppressed and orchestrated by powers that be then I've got to conclude that once we get real news and our evaluation begins its ascent it will be manipulated and orchestrated beyond what otherwise might be as well.
They've set themselves up for mischief every annual showcase except in 2015 when the PETX & BioCon endeavors were highlighted as potentially generating income quite quickly but upon subsequent realization that this was not to be, we sold off quite severely from the all time highs into the hold episode, etc., etc.
The Ireland interview is a shill piece, nothing more than a paid infomercial. Getting back to your point about need for activist corporate raider, I have got to believe there's a not insignificant chance that someone or entity is and has been all along working hostile bid angle and perhaps DOC's nakedly shameful share grab (s) are but his tacit recognition that he won't be one taking Advaxis down home stretch.
Fbg --- since you brought it...Regarding Imclone (and DOC's tenure there) I've been holding my tongue past week or so but it hardly matters now:did anyone notice at the recent presentation at Jeffries that Danny boy all but took credit as the one who made the Imclone deal happen? It's there, couldn't believe he went there....Karma perhaps? Maybe its been Icahn all along putting his fat thumb on scale regarding our valuation. This would validate all takedown and algo conspiracy theories.
Strictly related to price action and each brokerage's risk dept. management requirements regarding minimum SP which they would allow a security to be marginable; considering where we are verging on also not meeting nasdaq requirments and large fund requirements...but not to worry, nothing to see here, lol (but trust me it's not really funny, more like unending nightmare.)
Things are just PEACHY!! Yeah, right! C'mon people, Wake TFU... The more I hear this kind of sentiment the more I feel I've been sold a bridge or ticket to an all day sucker movie or cult meeting. Please!!-- to argue that our valuation is not a judgment on our fundamental worth today and moving forward is to deny or misunderstand the function price plays in the marketplace. Don't get me wrong, were we to execute thebn price would reflect that as well but to insist that "all is well or it's Dan's plan" is akin to toasting champagne in the dining room as our Titanic is taking on water.
Hope you're right Catt. We know that upper management has prior ties to BMY and my only concern is that we tend to spread ourselves out in terms of commitment with little regard to any visible payoff; Hopefully we aren't repeating this now with BMY and that this does become the historically defining relationship to propel us forward. One caveat as I know you've been here and witnessed it all: didn't we go through this with Merck, then Astra, Amgen, etc.? I know the argument(s): more bidders to chase us, irons in fire, deferring payoff now for big payday later, and so on and so forth (sigh.) Since the first "collaboration" with Merck in 2014 it hasn't actually worked out so well as an investor as anyone who bought the last two years is quite under water on their investment not to mention LTSH's like us .....
Catt --- If so then begs this question: WhyTF weren't we told this MONDAY at our presentation specifically designed to discuss corporate strategy and vision moving forward? REALLY?
Let's hope we do see significant short covering at these levels that can define the bottom of a new trading range wherein, short term at least, $6ish-$9 becomes the battleground. I'm ready to concede that the shorts have won this battle, what else can we LTSH's do except continue to buy to bring down our average cost per share or at the very least endure this pain and look to next battle? One observation, the news today continues a pathetic pattern of weak strategic vision and execution; does anyone really believe that "Not enough retail know of us" is the issue or is it that despite creating a lot of activity (irons in the fire as it were) we continue to struggle getting paid for all this activity and more importantly, expense. At some point we've got to SELL SOMETHING! That or else continue to dilute to remain viable. The shorts strategy is simple, they continue to bet that dilution will continue to be the path forward and until we can sell our products to regulatory agencies or BP it's hard to see this changing.
With all due respect "firing on all cylinders" to me would imply selling our product(s) and generating income. Unfortunately what we were told yesterday was that progress towards that goal continues with little or no visible payoff yet in sight. Been here since '08 and our motto seems to always end up: wait till next year. Market's verdict and conclusion is clear.
Perfect analogy Bourbon, 3 yards and cloud of dust performance is reflected in our share price. I like you hold a signficant portion of my position in warrants. If someone would have told me back in 2014 that halfway through 2017 we would be under $10/share I would'nt have committed so deeply to the warrants given the looming expiration next year. Referencing the football analogy DO has yet to show he's "the guy" to win a championship. Hopefully he can get this party started sooner rather than later or else, as in sports, no one is immune to being demoted or replaced. Hoping it doesn't come to that as that would imply the warrants leverage play was a failure.
You pose a valid question, no doubt. Especially when one considers that for the past 5 years we've always sold off after non eventful annual shareholder meetings which have been characterized by an abundance of fluff about "activity" but dearth of real income producing achievement. Let's hope the converse (finally) is true this year; maybe Danny Boy can shock and awe this time. Good luck to we long term shareholders, fingers crossed we get the news we long time believers deserve pre market on Monday.
Bill --- I concur with your premise that a large magnitude of the outstanding short position is actually held by same tute's who hold substantial long positions and that they are just biding time until developmental news finally occurs with regulatory approvals and visible income. Then and only then will they lift their hedged position(s) and at that point we will appreciate at an heretofore unprecedented rate and to levels unimaginable given price action past couple years as they will then work in concert with one another to manipulate appreciation and mm's will no longer work HFT suppression game but will flip switch to an accumulate/appreciation program.....
My guess is Adage's long position is in the money, hedged to a significant degree if not 100%. When they lift their hedge upon significant development (s) this stock can/will 10 bag given pent up demand and lack of real liquidity.
Reading the tea leaves, perhaps an eventual successor to DOC should he at some point relinquish day to day control and become solely COB?
FBG --- IMO the major reason that spurred our run couple years back was at that time there was a real expectation at that point that we would be generating licensing revenue with both Aranta and Biocon in the near future. Unfortunately both those avenues have so far come up bone dry and with that disappointment and failure (along with host of other factors) our PPS and market valuation just cannot get off the mat. As always ever hopeful that we (and myriad of partners) will begin executing and our market valuation will again begin to reflect the true potential here!
Agree Oakrock, very different situation than in the past...when this stock price leaves the station this time we will never look back. Just a matter of when, not if. One other point regarding buyout: I agree with Easy on another thread that the later a buyout were to occur the better price we will fetch; an early buyout (next 12 months) would be a giveaway considering where we are from a valuation standpoint. I would like to see us spike up 100-300% into ASCO and then spend several months trending sideways higher squeezing any remaining shorts.
Obi10 --- Uhhh we (pumpers) are still here, only perhaps quieter because we are so choking on this latest sell off from the all day sucker company that is Advaxis to date. But make no mistake that given our $ in the bank and pipeline it's only question of when, not if we ultimately hit the jackpot. But of course it hardly makes these past 18 months enjoyable but alas it is what it is for time being but thanks for thinking of us (not!).....