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Copy that CATT --- think $2-4B is very possible, agree that $1B would be somewhat a disappointment.
My operating premise is that DOC was standing in the way of a B/O and that's why he was jettisoned; If so we've been in discussions since then and we all know DOC wanted $6B so gotta believe we are talking somewhere between $1B- perhaps as much as $4B. Remember when DOC was canned we were trading rougly $300-600m MC valuation range in those prior 6 months. Based on that MC, $1-4B is not out of question.
To argue to continue holding out longer is to keep with DOC's go it alone for as long as it takes strategy. Realistically our ultimate destination is not to be a stand alone pharma but rather someone's acquisition to spur their cancer immuno division.
TC --- if this B/O is happening quickly as we suspect one important tell would be heightened activity in trade for the warrants as an arbitrage opportunity whereby you sell the underlying stock for future delivery and use proceeds to purchase warrants at extremely favorable ratio.
Sonic --- The premise regarding Adage has been that they were the driving force manipulating our SP lower the past couple years and the sale in Sep was to cover their own against the box short position for perhaps a tactical reason (perhaps deal was imminent but then delayed.) Who knows but the curious events for the past couple years are starting to make sense in retrospect. I think Adage truly cashed in both ways on the price action since becoming involved in Dec'14; They are likely positioned to cash in again a third time.
FBG --- If B/O by AMGN is in fact what transpires,then DOC's abrupt, unexplained nature of departure is revealed given his stated willingness to go it alone to get to his oft stated $6B target price. He was standing in the way of a more reasonable offer. Also explained is much of company's seeming indifference to our SP for past year as Adage has successfully played both sides with spectacular results. Well let's cross our fingers and find hope that this truly long, strange trip is rushing to endgame and let's hope price is somewhere between $2-4B.
Iggy ---Since earlier this year this "collaboration" with AZN was downgraded in importance and was basically an all risk, little to no reward for us as the choice had been made to align going forward with BMY. Worry regarding if and when this hold is or isn't lifted clearly isn't material with regard to our other trials and IMO even if it were lifted would hardly spur a significant reversal in our share price. Just more bad luck with regard to perception in this never ending "hits just keep on coming" theme with ADXS. At some point one has to believe our luck will begin to swing the other way.
Iggy --- Chart is suggesting bottoming taking place. If we gen an island reversal pattern confirmed this alone could unleash a storm. We get anything else regarding Amgen participated in latest offering, "Katie bar the door time!"
My guess is Adage is back to being naked long again with a substantial position but with a breakeven that all would envy given how they've played this ADXS fiddle for past 3 years. Think all the selling now is index driven (the ultimate bot selling, as it's arbitrarily driven by index dictates) and as the saying goes, "buy 'em when they're plenty, sell when they're dear." Look for the hold being lifted as possibly the catalyst to open gap up one morning and complete the chart which is forming an island bottom reversal should that occur.
Hey FBG ---been awhile since I posted but I would say Adage is more directly to blame for our valuation demise than mistakes made by DOC; they are obviously playing this and milking it for all it's been worth for past 4 years. Maybe DOC can be blamed for being taken in by their snake oil and for bringing them into our fold but even had DOC been picture perfect with his subsequent decision making it's hard to argue that Adage wouldn't have played this in same fashion, difference being only in degree and devastatingly effective result. What strikes me is the control with which the market has traded for past two days; given events and volume, trading range seems very controlled and contrived.
My two cents: there is a silver lining in the sense that if there is to be dilution let's finally give Adage what they've been wanting since the last issuance of shares so they can finally cover their against the box short position. Then and only then can we finally escape this short cabal liquidity trap we've been been stuck for the past couple years. Given this clearance we might be able to get valuation back to a minimally respectable level and higher...
FBG --- I too was impressed by the pointed references to we shareholders; I am looking forward to Lombardo following through with solid, timely execution and ultimately he will sell our product(s) for significant sums and once and for all let's see next year be the year that we turn this around. One last note, it sure would be nice if he pulls something from his sleeve tomorrow and follows up the pooch conditional approval with something not currently expected. Otherwise I fear the share price will falter tomorrow as has happened so often past couple years.
Iggy --- might they not recognize some income from Amgen and show a profit? That along with some release of forward looking positive news becoming visible in the near future may be enough to get us out of this hole we find ourselves vis a vis our ridiculously low valuation.
Not much of a fight though as we always seem to bring a knife to a gunfight....long past poster presentations as salvation to what ails here; Laughable really when considering the long history of missteps.
"Feedback from those meetings (with existing as well as new investors) has been positive".... WTF, if this is positive I'd hate to see what negative looks like. If this is indeed the company's stated view of where things stand then this is indeed a broken stock/broken company. Wonder what all the staff is up to at this point? My guess would be working on that resume. Simply unbelievable that it has come to this; Following to it's logical conclusion one must believe Adage will be organizing effort to take company private, seems logical given how they've mercilessly orchestrated this take down. Further if true that management is visiting investors hat in hand then Adage continues to hold all the cards, and retail's hopes for "deal" or BO are a pipe dream at this point as our management flounders in an seeming aimless manner given our cash position and lack of real prospects to monetize anything at this point. Vienna, yeah right.....another conference ain't the answer any of us are looking for.
Thank you MP for best summary of state of affairs imo! Is what it is...
Raja --- No dilution: If one assumes Adage is indeed behind the short cabal and their trashing of the share price then if follows that's the whole point of Adage's play to crash the share price; they are in the know that there won't be any further dilution as the company is now looking at a more short term focused strategy rather than DOC's long game strategy.
Iggy --- btw, think your forecast of $40-$50 share price at BO is reasonable. That would equate to $2.5-$3.0 billion based on 50m shares outstanding. Maybe Dan insisting on $6b is what sealed his demise as it was deemed overly optimistic and/or time frame needed to get there was too long.
Iggy --- I'm not an accountant but given long term capital gains tax governance I think you've pretty much summed it up: they can take long term capital gains on their very profitable short positions and perhaps execute paper losses on their long holdings dictating which positions to use as their basis to maximize their overall profit net of taxes.
FBG --- On paper (filings) Adage is still long but off balance sheet isn't that the obvious smoking gun given the large, long established short that has evolved since they came on board? Are they truly still long or have they long ago neutralized their position or further become net short? They are after all a "Hedge" fund which means they will trade in the securities they are involved! Given the manipulation conspiracy theory it stands to reason the true state of affair might be Adage is in the process of re establishing a long interest.
Somewhat OT but appropriate nonetheless: For all the Godfather buffs, I think the obvious line to summarize Adage in all this is "it was Barzini all along."
Now you're talking Iggy....this is no longer about the science or market place of ideas bs; At the end of the day as this has played out it's obviously become a high stakes Insider's game and that is the naked, ugly truth. Perhaps DOC developed a spine and wouldn't play ball and his removal speaks well of his ethics in hindsight. Who knows, still quite the mystery there. But ultimately, YES: give Adage what they want and they will play ball, it is in all our interests at this point as in essence we are being held hostage at these valuation levels and they are the one's holding gun.
Gantor --- I most definitely concur with your thesis regarding Adage and your interpretation of the history post Adage buying in; They are the 800 lb. gorilla in the room after all, who can deny this? If you're correct that they are again pivoting their basic position, this time to square up their short position and becoming net long the stock, then we can remain positive that all is not lost. Ultimately if this thesis is borne out then it follows that they will again lead us back up (baring anything else unforeseen) and there is light at end of this tunnel. My best analogy would be an ocean liner turning around: given the limits of natural volume and the magnitude of the short position involved this process has/will take some time (sigh) and we at the end of the day simply must endure this voyage as such.
Yup,for those that don't remember or weren't around, there was a poster who had garnered great following and fanfare and was POUNDING table running banner type posting after posting declaring "20 bagger was imminent, tutes trying to steal our shares, don't let them," etc.; I believe this stayed many a LTSH (I know I'm guilty of not taking anything off table) from taking profits during the run to $30+.
I agree Iggy that our valuation should be well north of where we are but as you aptly pointed out it's the delays and struggle to move forward in a timely manner with the regulatory hoop process that has allowed this mischief to transpire by the whales that own and control our fate. Other than Amgen there has never been any pleasantly surprising news, any unexpected events have always been negative or easily manipulated to appear (via price action) as such. With regard to cartel efforts, don't think they've had to over exert themselves given almost riskless rewards they've reaped from their machinations. They will do it all day long as long and every day as opportunity presents itself and of course we've been witness to this, it's undeniable at this point.
The salient reason the large, long established short position is operating with impunity also has to do with fact that to large degree they probably arent in fact short but hedged against their institutional long position...all conjecture about "value" or "buyout" will be determined by THEIR decision upon where we should be valued based on management's ability to execute --- or not execute. The level of valuation we currently see is commensurate with level of execution we have seen to date. Hopefully this will not remain the case moving forward.
Dawson ---I beg to differ, what they did do was convince us all that we were on the cusp of 10 bagger move (when already @ $20/share) that would happen quite rapidly and so for many who by June had already at that point had a 10 bagger given that we were trading $3 handles in Dec. 2014 (pre Adage), what did we do or not do? We held from selling given the euphoria! What Tin and others are mapping out as the likely scenario of "what happened" over the past several years implies that already existing long term shareholders who back in 2015 controlled up to 2/3 of float didn't offer our shares for sale which allowed the push higher to go well beyond what it might have otherwise. Sure these shills "educated" us but to what end? To buy and hold beyond what was prudent is my conclusion and ultimately how's that working out for us all?
Gantor --- So our chief benefactor was playing both sides all along...it certainly fits the history and evidence and one has to just marvel at how this is all legal: Caveat Emptor. At this point given your thesis, one might expect we are in the process of bottoming. Quite the boat ride this has been since Dec. 2014 is the only conclusion one can make and hopefully we can sell HER2 in the relative near term to give the powers that be the excuse to run us back up into the $20's or more.
FBG --- Volume certainly suggests significant number of the cumulative short position is getting covered. Given our price level wouldn't be surprising if Fidelity and others have been forced out. Hopefully victory can and will be declaared soon and we can begin bottoming process and with any good news I have no doubt the HFT machine can be programmed for north as well as south...
Iggy --- Will be interesting to see if that level is breached; Hard to imagine this take down has played out and occurred without Adage's tacit approval if not active participation? Do you still think Adage is innocent or naive regarding the manipulation of our valuation going back years?
Copy that G.B., that's exactly what I expect we can hear, otherwise with the recent stated change in strategy and PR regarding HER2, Why bother presenting today if not to relate news on those fronts?
Raja/Fbg --- it's the only thing that makes any sense given the firing of DOC (he didn't want to sell HER2) and these takedowns (shorts knew they had a limited window to lower the base from which to begin their short cover operation.) Hopefully a deal for HER2 has indeed been consummated and as a result we can receive a significant cash infusion to avoid dilution and new found validation for the science and how the business is being managed.
Iggy --- Not an encouraging analogy given DNDN's ultimate demise but your point is well taken with regard to Icahn and his propensity for mischief and his known hostility towards DOC (for those unaware he forced him out at Imclone.) Is Icahn as our savior just around the corner? If it should play out it sure would smell to high heaven if it was him along with his foot on our neck. Not sure how LTSH's will fare if he becomes our "white knight" but we shall see. If anything the ADXS saga as we've witnessed is a textbook case how in our system potentially revolutionary technology is hamstrung and compromised by insidious financial machinations and how the public good is less well off as a result. It's also a shame that Dr. Peterson is not getting her just due because of all this.
Gotta agree Iggy --- the short cabal has succeeded in lowering the base price level from which they can begin squaring up their large, accumulated short position. Just for argument's sake, consider that prior to this summer's early selloff the effective trading range was roughly $8-$11ish. Maybe to square up their short position would have required $20-$30ish price trading range. Now it's maybe $5-$12ish give or take? They no longer need further dilution to maximize their profits, their strategy has succeeded beyond what any of us would like but there it is. Hopefully they can now declare victory --- COVER ---so we can all move on. All IMHO assuming our science in the end is sound and management can eventually get the market to refocus on the science.
Gotta say Bourbon, I'm with you on this....just what exactly do our 100+ employees do on a daily basis at one of NJBIZ's best places to work? Given our lack of tangible accomplishments with an ever growing payroll, sounds like a lot of hurry up and wait makework, wtf?
If there is a short cabal that has been stymied from covering their systematically derived short via the direct offering mechanism then their only recourse becomes to go the other way and push valuation higher (much higher i would add) upon a triggerring event. There are probably enough shares offered up to low 30's to get them square but obviously they would need to recoup their losses thus i believe they would then orchestrate a run beyond what we can imagine. This is how a much higher valuation can dramatically transpire given the myriad of catalysts that we can potentially see.
Iggy I'm inclined to side with your assesment, anything sub $1-2 B why bother...if not worth at least that then won't even fetch $15 as results evidently didn't pan out. At this point its become apparent it will be binary development/event that will determine our valuation.
No denying that Broadfin was just as "gullible" as we who remain in the sense that they purchased much too early and at a much higher price than where they sold. Holding fast with the knowledge that just as Broadfin clearly didn't and doesn't know anymore than we do, neither do the shorts....Let's see how this plays out into the fall and year end.
Seeing bid for 100,000 shares at 6.22!
MCA --- great to hear you are still with us and obviously in for the long haul. BTW, Sidransky has been our COB since at least 2016 so seems more plausible that DOC was caught somewhat unaware. However it should also be noted that Sidransky and DOC were together at Imclone back in the day for what that is worth and DOC was already in charge when Sidransky joined as board member back in 2013; Don't know what conclusions can be drawn from their having a relationship that predates their time at Advaxis. Nonetheless great to hear from you and it would be most welcome if you were to become a regular poster once again as it would only add positively to the discussion.
When we get the catalysts I don't have any doubts we will get many tute's piling in and driving this higher. Can't be emphasized enough that ours is a thinly covered and traded stock with relatively little float....when it's time to run it up it will likely make the 2015 run-up look like it was but an audition in comparison!
I agree that Adage's long position(s) are hedged and probably well above where we are currently, north of $20 would be my guess and also wouldnt be surprised if they have been or are net shorts, given the large unwavering large thumb that has been constantly suppressing any valuation rise. Perhaps they like us are waiting for dynamic news event and at that point they will orchestrate a moon shot rise ala kite, puma, etc. that is so common in this sphere. There's probably 10 mil or more for sale @ $30 and then once its taken out who knows where they can run it up to.