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Strong Correction Ahead?
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000156701
haha, NBG...talk about a Dirt Bank
another good Euro discussion, key point at 3:20
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000156816
libor is a separate issue, I'm talking about shorting BCS as a bearish play on Europe, even though the U.K. doesn't use the Euro currency, it always sells off when Europe is in trouble...
I guess SAN, BBVA, and DB are more direct plays, not sure how liquid they are though
shorting Euro banks might be the best long-term investment lol...about a month ago I was thinking about shorting BCS...very liquid and likely heading even lower...I should have made that trade
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABCS&ei=9LZQUbiWKoSRrAGNggE
True, but remember this? This analyst talks about how even though the metrics normally used to measure a recession show we aren't, "but if you look under the hood, we are..."
watch at 2:28, but he makes this point towards the end of the clip
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000152496
Low Growth Plus Fed Tightening: Look Out Below
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/low-growth-plus-fed-tightening-look-out-below-jyG6NSY3RaO_y5iSAXToGw.html
Cyprus Is Saved… Or Is It?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-is-saved-or-is-it-bbrf8_t0S3qDXNoN~azpjg.html
Did you watch this? Good discussion about Europe on FM...note at
2:45, a trader talks about how some people now don't trust their money anywhere in Europe
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000156680
the main reason I'm bearish is because of Europe...if it wasn't for the European Debt Crisis, I'd be a huge bull because it's Europe that's slowing down the U.S. and China/Asia-Pacific and South American Economies....Europe is why the Fed has had/chose to do so much QE...but the Fed should have stopped after Operation Twist...I think at this point the Fed is basically out of bullets...
what if Europe does collapse in the next year, what is the Fed going to do...?...more QE? They are basically doing "QE-infinity" now
Europe-Cyprus Analysis
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=86092222
Analysis: Cyprus rescue raises new questions about euro's long-term survival
thanks, here's a good Reuters analysis on the whole situation
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/us-eurozone-cyprus-contagion-idUSBRE92O0J420130325
(Reuters) - The messy deal to bail out Cyprus has averted the latest threat to the break-up of the euro but at the cost of raising new questions about the single currency's long-term viability.
Savers in other euro zone banks appear so far to be taking the freezing of balances over 100,000 euros in Cyprus's two biggest lenders in their stride. Perhaps they judge that events in a tiny, far-away island with outsize banks and a reliance on deposits from Russian oligarchs hold little relevance for them.
Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds held broadly on Monday, reflecting a belief that the European Central Bank's promise to buy struggling euro members' bonds if need be - a program known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - will prevent a spillover from Cyprus.
"This certainly plays into the hands of northern European creditor countries, who have long taken the view that fears of contagion, in particular post-OMT, are wildly exaggerated," said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London.
"For the time being there is no contagion: the markets, rightly or wrongly, still believe in the credibility and effectiveness of this bond-buying scheme."
Although big outflows from Italian or Spanish banks were unlikely, Spiro said the troika of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the ECB had set a dangerous precedent by initially agreeing to tax Cypriot deposits below the European Union's 100,000 euro guarantee threshold.
European central bankers in private, and German banks in public, expressed confidence that the repercussions of Cyprus's bailout would be contained.
"The banking sector in the country was too large and did not have a sustainable business model. Cyprus should thus be regarded as a one-off case, and is therefore not comparable with other European countries," said Andreas Schmitz, president of the BdB association of German lenders.
But Lena Komileva, who runs the consultancy G+ Economics in London, said the terms of Monday's early-morning agreement in Brussels sent an unfortunate signal: a euro in a bank in Cyprus is not equal to a euro elsewhere in the euro zone.
"This is... a systemically important deal for the future of the euro zone banking union, or rather the lack of it, which carries implications for Spain in 2014," Komileva said.
BOND BUYERS BEWARE
The bailout is also evidence of an increasingly hard line being taken with bond holders in failed euro zone banks.
Weeks after the Irish government agreed to repay guaranteed debt in Anglo Irish Bank when it was liquidated, senior bondholders in Popular Bank of Cyprus, also known as Laiki, will be wiped out, while those in Bank of Cyprus will have to make a contribution, officials said.
How big depositors and bond investors in other vulnerable euro zone banks would react post-Cyprus in the event of a new shock thus becomes the latest ‘known unknown' in the four-year-old euro zone debt drama.
The crisis in Greece fanned fears of contagion to the likes of Italy and Spain, touching off a deposit flight to safe-haven banks in Germany and other hard-money northern European states.
The result has been a fragmentation of the money and banking markets across the euro zone that the Cyprus bailout can only prolong and possibly intensify.
For example, despite the soothing effect of the ECB's bond-buying pledge, the interest rate in January on new one-year business loans under 1 million euros was 2.8 percent in Germany but 6.7 percent in Portugal.
The ECB's declared priority is to repair the monetary policy transmission mechanism so that its easy-credit stance is diffused to all 17 members of the euro, not just a few.
The policy has been working insofar as cash imbalances between the north and the south of the single currency zone have gradually fallen since ECB President Mario Draghi promised last summer to do whatever it takes to save the euro - a pledge that spawned the OMT program.
The danger now is that this process will stall because of the spillover from Cyprus, keeping bank lending interest rates high and thus deepening the recession in southern Europe.
Speaking in Lisbon last week before the Cyprus deal was struck, Portuguese economists and brokers expressed dismay that euro zone policymakers were gambling with depositor confidence - even if Cyprus's circumstances were special.
"The European Union should be aware of the risks that peripheral countries are facing. Those responsible for decisions like this one on Cyprus should think deeply about the probable consequences," said Paula Carvalho, chief economist at BPI bank.
GROWTH, AUSTERITY AND SOLIDARITY
Joao de Deus, a senior sales trader with brokers Dif in Lisbon, said there was no guarantee that the crisis in Cyprus would be the last flare-up.
For some observers, the Cypriot solution feeds the perception across the periphery that the German-led ‘Northern Alliance' is determined to keep pressing for discipline and austerity in southern Europe, even at the risk of perpetuating a vicious cycle of recession, missed fiscal targets and more growth-sapping budget cuts.
The real contagion risk, therefore, is that the meltdown in Cyprus, which is heading for a deep economic slump because of the destruction of its offshore banking industry, will fan a revolt against the hair-shirt policies demanded by the troika as the price of providing a safety net for euro zone strugglers.
With the exception of Greece, protests in southern Europe against high unemployment and pension cuts have so far been peaceful. But resentment at what many see as a lack of solidarity from Germany is growing.
As such, Alastair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart, an investment bank in London, said Cyprus might eventually come to be seen as the second big step in the break-up of the euro, the culmination of five decades of ever-closer integration meant to banish the specter of another war on European soil.
The first step, he argued, was the rejection by a majority of Italian voters in last month's general election of the orthodox prescription of austerity.
"They had duly noted that the peoples of Europe, even if they no longer want to kill each other, are unwilling to help each other out in times of distress," Winter told clients.
Some Cypriot Banks to Re-open Thursday
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000156848
Why Cyprus Deal Doesn't Signal Euro Bull Run
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-deal-doesn-t-signal-euro-bull-run-brooks-refO1L66RNiaIvEMUHwZMg.html
Why Cyprus Deal Doesn't Signal Euro Bull Run
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-deal-doesn-t-signal-euro-bull-run-brooks-refO1L66RNiaIvEMUHwZMg.html
Why the Cyprus Bailout Won't Prevent a Recession
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/counting-on-an-11th-hour-cyprus-bailout-jMVtcFvvQyqU7PDhKmUsFA.html
doesn't matter, Europe is still doomed and will drag the U.S. into a recession ;)
Is the Tide Starting to Turn for Tech Stocks?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-the-tide-starting-to-turn-for-tech-stocks-15CHx~FCRjWjYURU2XpZ1Q.html
Cyprus in `Tragic Situation' Right Now
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-in-tragic-situation-right-now-MnggudPjTI~3xY_RyQEvJw.html
hey I might have to buy the new Deftones album, similar to white pony where there's a good balance of hard and soft tracks...check this one out...play at 0:58
Cyprus risks euro exit after EU bailout ultimatum
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/22/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBRE92G03I20130322
(Reuters) - The European Union gave Cyprus till Monday to raise the billions of euros it needs to secure an international bailout or face a collapse of its financial system that could push it out of the euro currency zone.
In a sign it was at least preparing for the worst, the Cypriot government sought powers on Thursday to impose capital controls to stem a flood of funds leaving the island if there is no deal before banks reopen following this week's shutdown.
Parliament will reconvene later on Friday to debate a raft of government crisis measures after lawmakers adjourned a late-Thursday sitting saying they needed more time for consultation.
Even those measures looked likely to fall short of a promised "Plan B" to raise the 5.8 billion euros demanded by the EU in return for a 10 billion euro lifeline from the EU and IMF.
The European Central Bank said it would cut off liquidity to Cypriot banks without a deal, and a senior EU official told Reuters the bloc was ready to see the island banished from the euro to contain damage to the wider European economy.
Angry Cypriot lawmakers on Tuesday threw out a tax on deposits, calling the EU-backed proposal "bank robbery".
After more talks on Thursday, the currency union's finance ministers urged Cyprus to table a new proposal.
Trying to placate its lenders, the government proposed to parliament a "solidarity fund" that would bundle state assets, including future gas revenues, as the basis for an emergency bond issue, likened by JP Morgan to "a national fire sale".
It also sought the power to impose capital controls on banks, a type of measure unseen since before the country joined the single currency bloc five years ago.
ECB PATIENCE FLAGS
The European Central Bank, which has kept Cyprus's banks operating with a liquidity lifeline, said the government had until Monday to get a deal in place, or funds would be cut off.
"Thereafter, Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) could only be considered if an EU/IMF program is in place that would ensure the solvency of the concerned banks," the ECB said.
In Brussels, a senior European Union official told Reuters that an ECB withdrawal would mean Cyprus's biggest banks being wound up, wiping out the large deposits it has sought to protect, and probably forcing the country to abandon the euro.
"If the financial sector collapses, then they simply have to face a very significant devaluation, and faced with that situation, they would have no other way but to start having their own currency," the EU official said.
Cypriot banks, crippled by their exposure to Greece, the center of the euro zone debt crisis, have been closed all week and are not due to reopen until Tuesday.
Long queues formed on Thursday at ATMs still dispensing cash, and there were angry scenes outside parliament where several hundred protesters, many of them bank employees, rallied after rumors the second-largest lender, Cyprus Popular Bank, was to be wound up.
Chanting "Hands off the bank", several demonstrators jostled with riot police.
"We have children studying abroad, and next month we need to send them money," protester Stalou Christodoulido said through tears. "We'll lose what money we had and saved for so many years if the bank goes down."
The central bank said it was readying measures to keep Popular Bank afloat. Some banking officials said it could be split between good and bad assets.
LIMITED OPTIONS
Under the levy rejected by parliament, EU lenders, notably Germany, had wanted uninsured bank depositors to bear some of the cost of recapitalizing the banks, but Cyprus feared for its future reputation as an offshore banking haven and planned to spread the burden also to small savers whose deposits under 100,000 were covered by state insurance. Lawmakers threw it out.
In Moscow since Tuesday, Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris said he was discussing possible Russian investments in banks and energy resources, as well as an extension of an existing 2.5-billion-euro Russian loan.
He said Cyprus had no plans to borrow more money from Russia and add to its debt mountain. The Russian Finance Ministry had said on Monday that Nicosia sought an extra 5-billion-euro loan.
The chairman of the euro group of finance ministers, Dutchman Joreon Dijsselbloem, told the European Parliament in Brussels that Moscow informed the EU it had no intention of ploughing more money into Cyprus.
Senior euro zone officials acknowledged in a confidential conference call on Wednesday that they were "in a mess" and discussed imposing capital controls to insulate the currency area from a possible collapse of the small Cypriot economy.
Cyprus itself refused to take part in the call, minutes of which were seen by Reuters. Several participants described its absence as troubling and reflecting the wider confusion surrounding the island's predicament.
The Wise Man is now bullish on Gold due to Cyprus
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85975382
Gartman: This is a 'Nervous Stock Market'
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154966
Cyprus Government Proposes Banking System Overhaul
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/government-proposes-banking-system-overhaul-jlN~Vd4KQOC2JwV8Pm6rbw.html
A Car That Runs on Air, Water: Here's How It Works
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/a-car-that-runs-on-air-water-here-s-how-it-works-1AUvv55XQSOzuVdas2S82Q.html
Cyprus Crisis About to Become a Tragedy: Zuckerman
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-crisis-about-to-become-a-tragedy-zuckerman-nSd1PIHoTyasE_xV6WBQTQ.html
good interview, Zuckerman is a smart guy, comments on Europe...watch at 3:15
Can Cyprus Come Up With Plan B by Monday?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-has-until-monday-for-plan-b-tcKhR7mbS7GDZVwhlF0hJA.html
Cypriots Protest Closure of Cyprus Popular Bank
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cypriots-protest-closure-of-cyprus-popular-bank-kQ~irHsJRCa1rxr__J6C2Q.html
Where in the World Are the Top 5 Tax Havens?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/where-are-the-top-5-tax-havens-in-the-world-lQx0N~RDRnOZRWJPsLM71w.html
How Will Cyprus Affect the Price of Gold?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-will-cyprus-affect-the-price-of-gold-qP2_HirBRRGjAvHhe3KpXQ.html
ATM Lines Grow as Europe Sets a Deadline
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000156082
Silver Ready to Catch Up to Gold?
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000155928
Cyprus Living by ATMs as Banks Remain Closed
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cyprus-living-by-atms-as-banks-remain-closed-YpTF2Dp3QA6CZ7JQ3xZidw.html
The Shift Towards Private Equity Funding
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-shift-towards-private-equity-funding-giEHYMk6QWy4RY2kTFf8QQ.html
ECB Waits to Decide on Emergency Lending
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ecb-waits-to-decide-on-emergency-lending-qPTOh8zyTWmm5PxDysCHRw.html
this Bear knows what he's talking about
Drained by Saddam, restored by nature - Iraqi marshlands make a comeback
http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/03/11/reuters-tv-when-pigs-die-china-livestock-wipe-out-r?videoChannel=118065&videoId=241668065
long lines at ATMs in Cyprus, the ECB is flying in cash lol
watch at 1:17
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000155850
What Russia Wants Out of the Cyprus Bailout
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000155795
Cyprus Shows 'Cracks in the Floor'
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000155640