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not true, while old shareholders get shares of newco and stock warrants probably, They will get 1 share of newco worth $ 18 for 3 shares of old co. That is why there is a $ 6 value and Appaloosa is in and other. Of course bashers will come everyday. saying the price is $1, like they said for last year stock would be cancelled
no AMR is now linked to LCC, AMR this year has almost 1 billion in profit, once you add synergy with LCC, much higher. Airlines are valued at 5 EBIT. THis stock is just going north steaDILY, not Enron here. The floow will be $ 4 ., inless short sellers or HF play games. Medium term from 6 to 10
COMPLEX BUT IF LCC GOES ABOVE $ 16, amr goes above 6
you are right. THe NOL is so huge if they can not use it some strategic players will merge with them to use it. Apple?
The stock will not be cancelled for that reason while it would doom treasury stock NOL related losses I think.
Cancellation of stock would doom NOL, too much value here
my biggest plays have always been as long term investor in value, FNP at 2 ,F at 2, PFE at 16. Just patient and aware of risk (marked down to 50%, meaning 50% loss less 10% portfolio and will not affect total return, but will adjust upward soon to 5% mark down or zero), Just 30% of portfolio there. All else in jnj,abt,kors,ua,aria,qcor and so on, does not need constant watch. watching too kerx, arna with money in game. Lost in clsn but my mistake, charts did not listen and did not pay attention to fact they were cancelling cowen conference. I means PIII was bad and no need to go,
AMR and EK have value, but every day you have cockroaches saying the stock will be cancelled, while the facts do not support that. Guess working for hedge funds who wish each 2 millions shares. Last thing they want is retail investors on yahoo MB each buying 100,000 shares for $ 30,000 and may be you have 10,000 acitve retail investors who can do that. It means they take 100 millions shares or all of it o jack up price so high. So they pay albert in social media investor relation firm to bash stock every day. Intenert has made it more difficult for them to make money, while most inbvestors see real time info. 20 years ago, most small investors rely on WSJ for yesterday info. while broker had real time. NOw most investors have metastock or esignal pretty close to trading floor
yep, this company makes money,has support of unions, cut cost. In bankruptcy due to ego of ex ceo. Put it in bankruptcy to renegotiate labor contracts, foolish. Most of the time management lose power in favor of creditors. Ex-ceo was poorly advised. The founder of pepsico . aware sugar was one of his main costs, bought 3 years supply, and played the commodity market. Price went down and a lawyer told him to file bk, instead of restructuring like Ford. In bk , he lost control t o a creditor who bought the company for 20cts on the dollar and ran it to stardom.
The ex-ceo should have learned to manage the unions and set aside his ego. He pissed them off and the unions becoming creditors made a deal with competition, promising peace, cooperation. They just want him out. Still great value here and bondholders will not get 300% of bond (by law impossible). Appaloosa and others will make sure of that. Upside now very good on euity and bondholders know it, All want equity
bondholders can not get 200% of principal and interest in stock and the 3.5 allocation will change. Based on $ 1 now soon $ 6
no if you read the release, 3.5%% is a floor price, based on $ 1 a share about. In 2012, they made 12 billions, 1.5 b loss but 1.3B restructuring, profitable about in 2012, but sound profit in 2013.
while stock price has moved to $ 5 and big hedge funds have positions on equity side (Appaloosa), the ratio will go to 10%, value will go 16 billions. stock price value between 4 and 6 short term. If they execute well, will go to $ 10 to 1$ 14 within 2 years and with parker will happen, great manager and backing of unions. CHase analyst to private clients said worth $ 6. Of course bashers have been busy since day one to say would be cancelled, sot hey client appaloosa and others could get 2 millions shares each or more for 60cts
market makers and hF plunging the stock on opening bell
debt does not have to be paid right away and they will swap bond for stock
remember EK subs abroad did not file bk, main issue was Steve Jobs an ass### blocked sale of patents to fund restructuring and distressed funds putting pressure. The judge is pro debtor
It is my understanding the 3.5% assigned to old shareholders is the floor. if AMR is profitable for next 6 months, it could double n allocation easily but you also get the upside of the nw company, biggest elephant in the pool
Except the close on 15 minute charts was not great
Seeking Alpha at 350pm with Steinberg, 3.5% of 12 billions and 400 millions shares about make stock worth $ 1, so overvalued. Thought there is a another agreement if AMR is more profitable they get more than 3.5%
more interested now in arna,kerx, and clsn to an extent. DNDN has become a mid-term to long term holding. Spending more time somewhere else
I do not think it explains the strong close, indicating institutional and smart hands buys. There is more to it. THey have access to better resources than yahoo. They know something else
Day traders and short term swing traders from 3:00 02282013 started to sell while there was a reversal on ST time frames and kept firming.
LT investors, growth investors do not care about that. Margin calls too
some of the shorts I think are hedged and have multiple calls. They may bet also the sales may not be as strong
great post. thank you
but why so many shorts? I know some people question the risk of valveopathy but still. May be they have covered a little bit since 02152013
I have multiple positions, at 1130 this morning got a call from one broker, saying margin on arna had been raised while more risky than yesterday. I had to sell by 330. Did not but was sold for 10% of position at 3;50. Thinking happened to many margin traders and the broker did that to help short institutional clients who needed shares.
Fidelity, Schwab, Merrill will often squeeze retail margin traders to help big clients. JIMHO.
End of day sales were forced margin calls. JIMHO. Retails lost some shares suddenly, sold at same time to depress stock and turned over to short hedge funds who needed them
no squawking with backing union creditors, 24 billions in sales and 700 millions in profit this year. Judge pro shareholders
compating that with EKDKQ, spent year selling assets at fire sale price, sales down 75%, huge losses. AMR is the opposite like GGP, a lot of value went bk to renoegotiate contracts. It was a management mistake while you usually lose control in bk most of time.
They are out and new management with backing of unions
best sales history in 2012. More than 24 billions in sales.
breakeven in 2012 without reorg costs.
restructured contracts.. lower costs, reve enhancements. It is no good. This is not an educated commment for the least. Go on Yahoo board. a lot of company
my thinking we get 3.5% and stock warrants tied to increasing value of stock may be
why that article has disappeared? May be the court asked a withdrawal while misleading? Allocation may be 5% plus 3%. Many claims from creditors have also been reduced, due for instance to double dip
I can not believe the market is overshooting so far to 2.5 from 1. Most people buying here are either institutions (HF) or may be some retail guys(most staying away while bk). It seems the market does not believe the allocation is worth 3.5 % of 10B as per WSJ
new article on 02142013 in WSJ:
title: AMR creditors stand to benefit by Mike Spector
shareholders get 3.5% share of newco and additional shares on 4 future dates, depending of FMV.
Article has disappeared online? Why?
Company had highest sales in history in 2012. Almost a profit if we take reorg charges and sandy. Contracts have been reworked in BK. Do not see why that stock does not go back to $ 5 and more if merger is successful. Unless the disressed debt holders (hedge Funds) are ureasonnable and nobody can or knows how to contain them.
I have been investing in distressed securities in a corner of my portfolio. They have been FNP, F, EK , AAMRQ. The three successes share a common thread: rising chart meaning rising tide. As long as there is no reversal, staying the course. It did not happen in EK so I took the exit. Would doubt this stock now at 2.4 from .4 would go back to zero. The merger is here and the floor value is 1.5 but the merged company will have a good run up, while one of the major players in the industry. Stock was $ 5 before bk and they did file BK just to renegotiate contracts. Merger happens as stock swap, to use NOL and easier to keep control of landing rights and other valuable assets, there is no change in owner. It is no a liquidation with asset sales, triggering renegotiation for many rights. Do know a retail company which bought furniture fixtures in bankruptcy of 30 stores, but could only get leases of 20. Of course, lawyers got sued to do the deal backward.
well I think this time seeking alpha is right. I misread these signs. Also about 12202012, some bad signs came on candlesticks. negative reversal in candlesticks, chaikin, macd and a top. What else. Should have sold
my understanding there would be may be a stock swap 10 AaMrQ for 1 US air. no cancellation of stock, explaining the runnup