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Agreed. Thanks for this board! :)
On iHUB? Sure, there are a few boards for it, but this is the most active one I've seen:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2319
I'm "Capitalist" in one form or another all around the net in various forums, etc. I'm a proponent of pure capitalism as Ayn Rand described it in her philosophy of Objectivism. No huge mystery with the alias, LOL!
Checking to see if my sig photo shows up now that I moved it to iHub's in-house host.
EDIT: Yep. w00t!!
Back again. Up for almost 24 hours now, trying to get myself back onto London Session time. Just bagged another 6 pips on EUR/USD.
Gnight! I'm getting ready to watch a movie or maybe some Twin Peaks. Just downloaded BitTorrent. :) That TV Links site you sent me a long time ago has led me to a whole new corner of the internet, LOL.
Back later...
Go up to the grey iHub toolbar and click on "Other" over on the right. It will take you right to the page. Matt or Dave or Meatloaf set it up a while ago.
Hey, I'm here!
iHub has a cool new image upload system so I'll test it out with this post. I've been having a rough two weeks with my "Hector trades" as I've been stopped out on the only two trades I've had during this period. Hector got burned on the same trades, so I don't feel so bad. Gotta take the occasional losing streaks in stride.
Anyway, I've been working (once again!) on a scalping technique for EUR/USD. I went and looked around on FF through a few threads on scalping, but didn't find any that worked consistently. (I wish we could create single threads on iHub for specific subjects like they do there, but that's a discussion for Matt and co.)
So over the past couple of days, I created a method based just on the configuration of one hourly bar. Looking at the stats of how the following bar reacts, setting a tight target and a wide stop, I ended up with some good results througout the day today. I had 8 trades over a period of 9 hours with no losing trades (although I had to add twice to a loser before it turned into a profit finally). The total for these 8 trades was 34 pips. You can see the entries and exits below. Note that one of the short entries is in the same spot as a closing sale, so the yellow arrows overlap.
Here's the screen shot:
capitalism isn't fair, socialism is.
hmmmmm? Ow. That hurt.
Just went long AUD/JPY at 105.20.
Still short USD/CAD
Time for lunch. Later!
I saw it. Have you found any way to use JAVA to grab data off the web, like from Dukascopy? Also, did you see the long post I wrote yesterday about the "rate of change" issue you brought up?
I didn't do the long EUR/JPY but I went short USD/CAD an hour or so ago. Another "Hector trade." Now I'm looking at applying Hector's concepts to short term trades on the EUR/USD too.
More scalping... long this time. I'll be doing this till the close of the London session so I think I'll stop posting them now, LOL.
Short EUR/USD at 1.4092 for another scalp.
EDIT: Out at +1 pip
Now I have an entry order in for long EUR/JPY if it moves up past 165.62. This is a longer term "Hector trade."
Speaking of which, I just missed a long entry. And now it's going up. Grrrrr...
Gotta take the signals as they come, LOL!
Out at even.
Trying the first scalp of the week; short EUR/USD at 1.4092
Let me see if I can clarify. In this post,
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23485137
you mentioned that "the market moves down faster than it moves up." Are you talking about:
A. "the market" in general or
B. "the market" in one particular pair?
Anyway, here's an answer for both:
A. The market in general
In the securities world, I think that's sort of a general rule of any market. For example stocks have to "climb a wall of worry" but bear markets happen really fast etc. So in markets like that, where investors are actually long some asset (unlike FOREX) "the market" actually does fall faster than it rises. At least that's what they say; I've never checked that.
At any rate though, that market principle makes sense in the stock market but it doesn't apply in FOREX because there is no up or down in a relative value market. There is no general market that can rise or fall. We can say that "the stock market is rising" or "the stock market is falling" but we don't say that "the currency market is rising" or "the currency market is falling."
Actually, there is a way to do this, if we relate the value of each currency to a physical commodity. Remember that I used to do this on my site by looking at the buying power of all currencies relative to a barrel of oil.
B. One particular pair
One particual pair may rise faster than it falls or vice-versa in any given period of time. The easiest way to look at that is just to compare the average rise from bar to bar with the average decline. Suppose that you're looking at a period of 100 bars. 30 are up and 70 are down (from the close of the previous bar). If we add up the 30 "ups" let's say we get 90 pips. If we add up the 70 "downs" lets say we get 140 pips. So this pair's average rise rate is 90/30 or 3 pips/bar and its average fall rate is 140/70 or 2 pips/bar.
So if you were to look at a chart of these 100 bars, you would actually see a decline of 90-40=50 pips, or a rate of -1/2 pip bar for the whole period. But even though the chart is going down, the upswings are on average 50% faster than the downswings.
Note that there are three independent variables; the proportion of up bars (30%) and the two rates (+3/bar and -2/bar). The proportion of down bars (70%) isn't independent because it's a function of the up proportion (1-30%). Anyway, together, these three quantities tell you what happened during the whole period:
(0.3)x(3) + (0.7)x(-2) = 0.9 - 1.4 = -0.5 which was our rate of change over the whole period.
I suppose you could create some indicator based on these variables, but it would probably give you about the same kind of performance that existing indicators do. Also, no matter what kind of nifty indicator you come up with, it's not useful unless you can get some charting service to incorporate it into their system.
Welcome to PYPS!
Finished going through my nightly analysis and have no good setups yet. Not a good time for scalping the EUR/USD either since it's just bouncing around in a tight range and the spread right now is two pips.
So it's nap time!
zzzzzzzzzz...
Well I'm not sure, since there really is no "up" or "down" in the FOREX market. It's a relative value market as opposed to an absolute value market like securities (stocks, bonds, options, etc.) When EUR/USD is going "up" that's the same thing as saying that the USD/EUR is going "down."
Look for moves up that took two 30second bars to reach overbought(from neutral or oversold), but only one 1min bar to fall back where it started.
Wait, what? Two 30-second bars would be the same thing as a single 1-minute bar. So I have to wash down that part with a big bottle of whatthehelldidyoujustsay, LOL!
Anyway though, I think you might be noticing a directional bias in the dataset. Some of the results may make it look like it's better to go long than short or vice-versa. This is something I ignore because it's the result of the fact that when I grab data from some period, the overall trend during that period is normally in one direction or the other. So there's always a bias in that direction.
In the past, when I write the "DATASET" part of the notes, I've included a chart of the whole dataset and point out that the bias is upward or downward or whatever. I forgot to do that in those notes. But don't put too much emphasis on one direction or the other; results that are tilted one way or the other are just a result of the bias of the whole dataset that I used in the project.
Thanks! I'll be trying it out this week too. I liked the way the project went too. No really advanced math or modeling or anything like that, straightforward and easy to follow with only 9 pages of notes. I wish they all had been like that!
Cheers till PYPS!
yuck, me either. More of an 80s synth fan myself. Anyway, I'm out for another weekend and hopefully next week I can get my trading schedule worked out...
LOL, no just that it was you that suggested that I look at EUR/USD again because of the low spread.
All the Hector type trades I've done since I came back at the end of August have been profits. That's probably a fluke though since I've only done about four or five. But one week I even ended up with 3 pips more than he did for the week, LOL! His course helped me out a LOT.
PS: If you decide to buy his course, do me a favor and go through the link on my site. I'm an affiliate, so I get a cut! :o)
I ended up canceling those two trades and didn't take any others this week either. My sleep cycle got messed up last weekend and hasn't recovered yet.
Also, I kind of dropped off the net in the middle of the week to finish my latest scalping research project (based on a suggestion of yours) and it's done!! I think I've got a method that works now. Your name even shows up in the Research Archives page, LOL!
http://market-geeks.com/researcharchives.php
DOWN. Look at the moving averages on the daily chart. All in order, parallel and heading down. That triangle is moving into an area of resistance between the 30 and the 50.
I entered orders a couple of hours ago for longs in AUD/JPY and AUD/USD. Since they're both AUD/XXX, I lowered my trade sizes. They haven't filled yet. Looking for a break above 0.8880 on AUD/USD and above 102.90 in AUD/JPY.
I'm out for the day. Back tonight!
I think what happens is that the different services use different "opening" and "closing" times for a daily bar. Some use midnight GMT, some use 8:00AM GMT and some use midnight or 8:00AM for whatever time zone the user is in.
So since the body of the candle goes from the open to the close, it will be different depending on how your service is timing it. Some long green candles on one service will be dojis on another.
You'll notice in my research notes that I never use "pattern based" analysis with daily bars. In other words I don't look at things like body size vs. total range, etc. In fact, I rarely use daily bars at all for research. Hourly bars and lower are generally more uniform from service to service.
Watching a bunch of setups and patterns, but no signals forming yet. I'm out for a stroll...back later.
I saw that on your other post, but I'm thinking it bounces back up from the 101.50 area to start another swing up.
Welcome benzdealeror2!
My choice is Oanda. Solid company, just got an infusion from big venture capital associated with Microsoft (I think) and the trading platform is nice.
It's web-based so you can go on from any computer, or you can download a desktop app. You can change stops and targets just by dragging them on your charts, and you can trade in any odd sized position you want (like 3,473 EUR/USD for example) instead of having to always use round lots. One disadvantage is that they don't have trailing stops.
They also have a demo account that doesn't expire.
Some other regulars on here also use FXCM and Forex.com I think. I'll let them chime in on those platforms.
bleh. Breakfast and coffee time.
C\_/
Makes sense; that's probably another reason why round numbers are often support and resistance; people like to choose round numbers for option strikes.
Which market? I just got up late again and went through the account and did analysis. Stopped out of the second half of the EUR/JPY position for +110 pips. When I went through the charts, I found that almost every pair has a pattern shaping up...too many potential trades to keep track of! Everything's retracing back to support or resistance levels.
Don't taze me bro!
DON'T TAZE ME BRO!!!!!
I'm out of here to go watch "Dead Like Me" on that TV link that the CaT gave me. Later!
Don't taze me bro!
Don't TAZE ME bro!!!!!
LOL