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Sorry that I did not catch that you wanted to know how many shares of NVEI I own. Since that is a matter of private investment concern, I will politely decline to give you any exact numbers.
But since you gave me a puzzle in the form of an allegory, let me stimulate your mathematical powers to derive an approximation.
At one point my wife's IRA was loaded with NVEI stock that was worth over $1.5 million. We owned in our separate Roth IRAs about the same number of shares. Since then, I have not sold ONE share of NVEI and have bought some more shares from time to time.
I hope you will concur with me that between my wife and me (we) own more shares of NVEI than any rational person (or people) should own. However, we will be happy if SOON ever comes.
Time to try to answer Rim's Question.
"How many shares should a rational person own?"
DISCLAIMER: General guidelines only; no professional services.
Rim, I don't know you; I don't know your family situation; I have no idea what your net worth is; I do not know what your investment goals are; I do not know what your risk tolerance is. Therefore, you have to understand I will try to be helpful, but cannot be specific.
TO THE BOARD MONITORS: I promised no side jobs; I am not soliciting business or clients. All I am going to try to do is give a general answer to his question.
If I were a deacon in your church and you came to me with a similar question on how much you should contribute to the treasury of the church to fulfill your implicit obligation, I would give you similar advice. The unwritten code asks for a 10% tithe per year. Some people can afford that levy; others can't. The deacon would tell you that any amount that you contribute would be welcomed and accepted; the church does not expect you to donate more than you can really afford. And on some nice Sunday morning if you've had a successful week, put a few more dollars into the collection plate.
Same idea in investing, except here the financial concepts of replacement values and earning potential become relevant. The unwritten code is no more than 5% of your holdings in any one speculative investment. But, to modify the rule, a good and honest investment advisor will ask you to look hard and fast at your entire picture. If you can afford to lose everything and be able to replace those losses within two (2) months through hard work and overtime and side jobs and whatever else you can do by the sweat of your brow (NOT investment speculation or inheritance), then you can take a flier above 5%. If, however, any speculative investment adversely affects you and your family---I am talking about bread on the table, not a new SUV or a skiing trip to Aspen, then you MUST not exceed the unwritten code if you are absolutely certain that you can make replacement through your earning potential to cover your losses. Otherwise, NO SPECULATIVE INVESTMENTS.
Congratulations are in order to New Visual.
I want to help lead the cheers for the artistic merits of the surfing documentary and am very glad to see that it is getting some well-earned recognition.
When Step gets an Academy Award nomination, I will be making plans to be in attendance at the ceremonies. You will see me there with my new best friends Stephen, Tom, Russell, and Denzel amongst others. As an investor in NVEI, Ray and the Browns have given us all at least one thing to be proud of: a very fine surfing movie.
I really love it.
Catch the image: Ray receiving the Academy Award for the Best Motion Picture Documentary film for 2003.
Wearing a tuxedo.
Waving an Oscar in one hand.
Waving a Credit Card with a $300.000.00 limit in the other.
A double winner!
Thank you for your prompt, positive reply.
Offense was taken yesterday; your genuine apology is accepted today. I bear no grudges.
The strong words were in response to Carl's discussion.
1. In my opinion, New Visual is not eligible to issue public debt (bonds) at this time that would draw a favorable bond rating. If someone tried to issue junk bonds for NVEI with the hype and creative bookkeeping necessary, the bond promoter (NOT NVEI personnel) would have a chance of facing jail time if convicted for bond fraud.
2. Taking Carl's cement company producer who liberally finances his customers with unsecured loans in the form of extended credit payments for material used today and not payable for 60 days, my comment was that unless the cement company was very careful, a few non-payments for cement could lead to the snowballing effect that the cement producer (NOT NVEI) would have to file for bankruptcy because when bad debts and uncollectible receivables total more than receipts, the cement company would not be able to pay its bills. Loose credit policy is dangerous.
3. The warning is that when angel funds and 144 sales do not bring in enough funds to keep the doors open, companies fall into depth spiral financing schemes; I did not say that NVEI was NOW using death spiral financing.
Both Carl and Groovemaster seem convinced that Slip into Liquid will yield good returns for New Visual. That would be nice. I'm not predicting, not projecting, not denying. I do have my doubts. I certainly would like to see a fair and complete accounting of New Visuals financial involvements and receipts from the movie. Do you think the shareholders are entitled to a complete, accurate, and fair audit and report on New Visual's various projects?
By the way, will the SIL DVDs be released in time to be stocking-stuffers or gifts for this upcoming holiday season? Any idea when the DVDs will be released, what they will be selling for, and how much money they are expected to bring into the nearly-empty coffers at our company?
Never been on Raging Bull. Have no Raging Bull handle or alias. Didn't have any carryover from Raging Bull.
Glad you see my true colors. Have no perspective on you even after going back to June and reading your posts; so I have no clue how to connect with you after the cutting I took from you yesterday. Never said anybody from NVI was going to JAIL. Never said that New Visual was going BANKRUPT. Never called the current funding that NVC is using DEATH SPIRAL. You picked up the words and took them out of context and cut me up.
Now you ask a very legitimate question about why I am still here. Will try to answer it.
If Company XYZ had management I did not like, but they had FDA approval and patents for the sure cure for cancer, I would probably hold on to my stock and perhaps buy some more.
If Embarq is the real deal, and we all hope it is, I would hold on to NVEI and perhaps buy some more. What we want, best case scenario, is for a telcom equipment manufacturer to partner with NVEI and take over the development of Embarq. I think everybody wants that to happen. The current management guys are a valiant group and are trying to do whatever is necessary to keep the company alive and to work to bring Embarq into play on its own as a real deal technology. Personally, I think that the people in current management would welcome the relief from their stress and pain as long as they are pecuniarily well-rewarded and can leave knowing that they did the job to bring Embarq to life and now they can move on knowing they didn't hurt anybody and may have brought rewards to NVC shareholders. Nobody in current management claims to be a practicing developmental electronics engineer; they know their limits and they know that they have to work very hard to keep the enterprise going.
In summary, then: If Embarq is the real deal, I know that current management will soon leave the scene and real engineers and technological development experts will take over the tasks. I not only can tolerate current management, I appreciate what they are trying to do in an almost impossible environment: little if any money, no actual hands-on expertise with the Embarq technology, constant bashing from all sides, and nothing but uncertainty on a day-to-day basis.
Watch out, Cosmo; facts are dangerous on this board.
Under four million dollars total take is less than 10% of the projected intake. Oh yes, there will be foreign revenues and sales of DVDs, and other possible income later.
Of that less than $4million, how is that distributed?
1. What do the theater owners receive?
2. How much does Artisan take?
3. What does that LLC that actually OWNS the motion picture get?
4. The trickle-down to the New Visual Corporation that financially enabled the project is what? A cup of Starbucks coffee?
Sir: I have the honor to reply to your post as cited. You are able to pick out words, but can you string words into ideas and comprehend them?
Re: Civility on this board; please compare the postings of two weeks ago with today's interesting and positive activities.
Did you note that Halston renailed Carl, but he did it in a very polite, respectful way. Nothing offensive there; good job Halston, keep posting and keep that nail gun warm.
Pengy and Spoke were very civil in their exchange; I liked that, how about you?
Carl and Spoke avoided the meat of the argument, but they played nice. Did you catch that?
As I understand it, you got your satisfactory answer from the company. CWH, is that the same company that bought New Wheel and its breakthrough magic? Is that the same company that bought unproven technology? Is that the same company that told the world that Lucent Technologies had tested the New Wheel technological miracle at an arm's length, as a third party, objective testing lab? Is this the same company that informed the world that the New Wheel cockamayme tinkering was ready to break the last mile bottleneck? Is this the same company that spent at least 18 months and a couple of million dollars discovering that the New Wheel technology was a mirage? Is this the same company that carefully explained how Step into Liquid was going to bring in $40million and that New Visual's share would be large enough to fund Embarq? Is this the same company that told us that the technology was patent-protected, unique, and was ready to go into the field? You strain the bonds of credulity when you cite as your source for answers from the horse's mouth "the Company."
All of us are waiting for real news; good news would even be better. When and if it happens, you will hear me leading the cheers. Until it happens, I remain a skeptical investor. Just as Jeff is learning, all that glitters is not gold.
Carl, your post is interesting and your semantics miss the mark.
Bonds are debt instruments. A company must conform to financial standards and undergo scrutiny by rating agencies. Are you telling me that New Visual Corporation can obtain money by issuing bonds? Would those bonds be BBB+ or better? Have you forgotten what we learned about junk bonds in the era of Michael Millkin who did go to jail, if you remember?
Yes, a cement company can sell its product to a contractor for the promise of later payment and more business. What happens to those companies who extend credit willy-nilly to everybody? Ever hear about bankruptcy?
My assertion is that telco supply companies (like the cement producing company in your illustration) are in no financial shape to extend unsecured credit to a late stage development fabless manufacturer who has no product (the contractor who got the cement is presumed to be working on a real job in your illustration and not experimentally making concrete widgets).
The undergirding of my argument is simply: If Embarq was the real answer, the telco suppliers who stand to gain from the technology if it is really applicable to the last mile bottleneck and other electronic ventures, would be lining up in San Diego to partner with RIM semi to bring the project to fruition. Why is this not happening? Why is New Visual surviving on angel funds, 144 stock sales, and now potential death spiral convertible bonds?
My response is as direct and as honest as it can be.
I have been reading the board and found it a worthwhile activity.
Then a couple of weeks ago, if you recall, the tone turned very nasty. People were not just spitting at each other, but urinating on each other. I jumped in with the hope of gently returning the tenor of the board to a more civil level, urging positive and interesting directions.
Spoke and Penguin, among others, have more to contribute than a character-challenging knockdown, dragout, virility encounter. I need to learn; I want to be a better investor. I am hoping that there is something there in Embarq. All of the important things will get lost or go away if civility disappears on this board. Please keep it positive and interesting. If you want to prove your manhood or need to fight, the Tough Man competition is always looking for participants. This board needs, among other things. intelligent postings, candor, and genuine informed discourse. I am hoping to both learn and if I have something to contribute, I will. But please, no more allegories from Rim that require introspection and interpretation that tax the brain.
Hello Rim:
Anymore allegories to peddle?
In reply to your question: Who knows, who cares? If he gave me his card, I dumped it. The message was that the electronics industry does not believe that the last mile bottleneck is an impediment; the problem is capable of being solved and by the Year 2005 they assume it will go away.
Do I have a clue how it will be solved? NO.
Do I have a clue which company or consortium will solve it? NO
Do I hope that Embarq will play a part in the solution and reward the RIM semi shareholders? ABSOLUTELY!!!
After all, I did hold my NVEI shares when all New Visual had were ideas. Now that they have a license to produce Embarq I think I would be foolish to sell off my NVEI shares. Faith and loyalty do sometimes get rewarded in this world.
Jeff, I do NOT have a definitive answer for you. From what I read from posters, it seems that 144 stock is and has been the lifeline for New Visual. Management of New Visual wants to keep control and you have to admire them for their tenacity. No telecom equipment manufacturer seemingly has stepped up to the plate and offered to partner with New Visual on reasonable terms. That fact raises red flags all over the place. If Embarq is the real deal, the solution to the last mile bottleneck, why haven't the players entered the game? You seem convinced that Embarq is gold; I think I would perform an assay on the metal that Embarq represents before I would conclude it is all gold.
A few years ago I was aboard a ship with an important American tech firm official. We chatted about the last mile solution. I asked his opinion. He informed me that the last mile problem was real and that his company in its advance planning was going well beyond any speculation about the solution. They assumed that by 2005 when their next generation of high tech stuff would come to market, the last mile bottleneck would have been eliminated. I asked him on what basis he drew that conclusion and he replied that about 55 companies were working on the problem and that by 2005, the problem would be solved to enable next generation electronic innovation to be applied. I then disclosed my financial interest in New Visual and gave him my interpretation of what their solution was going to be. His noncommital reply was that it was an interesting concept and repeated that their advance planners were reckoning that by 2005 the bottleneck would disappear.
Someone is calling an unsecured loan an investment. I do not think that the US Comptroller of the Currency would look favorably at a bank that carried an unsecured loan as an investment. Regulated financial institutions have accounting standards to maintain. If a loan is made, that loan is usually secured. The security usually has a greater value than the loan amount. If someone defaults on a secured loan, the financial institution forecloses and attempts to sell the pledged asset to recover its loaned amount. That is how regulated financial institutions operate. No tickee, no laundry; no security, no loan.
Sorry to be so late returning to the postings, but I just returned home from a family supper at the home of a charming, hospitable cousin who has a new boyfriend, so we stayed awhile.
My rhetorical question was about an unsecured loan. The key term is "unsecured."
Posters who proclaim that it is good financial practice to invest in unproven technology could very well be correct. But please note, an unsecured loan is NOT an investment. Who will make unsecured loans to late development stage tech companies who claim to be fabless manufacturers and have no product?
May I suggest that it is quite clear who will make such a loan.
The game is called money laundering. Lender X will loan Company Y $526,000, The interest rate will be at usurious levels. The payments will be steep and frequent. And the vigorish in the loan will be a consultanship to the lender who will receive $236,000 for his first consultancy fee one week after the loan closes. Never mind that the lender has no expert knowledge to contribute to the enterprise; what he has is quick and available monies. If you really analyze the scheme, you often find that the lender is operating somewhere offshore and when the first payment is missed, Company Y issues Reg S shares at a discount to cover the entire cost of the loan and the interest. The lender sells the shares short and the scheme nets him his principal, his interest, and consultancy fees. A tidy profit and no risk. Who pays for this game? The long term shareholders whose holdings get diluted by the issuance of more stock.
Legitimate businesses sweat blood to get secured loans. Honest lenders very seldom make unsecured loans. Telecom supply companies have no funds to advance to late stage development tech companies with no product and unproven technology on the come.
I repeat the rhetorical questions: Who in their right mind is going to make an unsecured loan to New Visual Corporation?
These replies are made to the board monitors in a straight-forward basis; no hedges, no equivocations.
Yes, unfortunately, I own more NVEI stock than any rational person should or would own. I owned lots of NVEI stock at a market price of $34.00 a share when NVEI had as its assets only ideas. But that was then and this is now. Was I stupid to hold on when my broker called me and advised me to sell at $34.00 per share? Am I stupid because I bought more shares at critical points to try to hold back the tide because I was asked to do so in order to secure a NASDAQ listing for the stock, or so that institutions in the wings could buy in at a statutory price, etc., blah/blah/blah?
Familydog in his last post said that NVEI may be afraid to disclose the secrets of its technology because it is afraid that theft of intellectual property may occur. Now I am asked to indicate risks of going to Asia. How about theft of intellectual property? What is a copyright? Is there an international intellectual property copyright protection ethic? Have you heard of "knock-offs?" Guess where Asian development comes from? Read the history of intellectual property and technology theft in Asia and see if a potential danger exists to NVEI in Asia? After all, what constitutes the assets of NVEI? Is the technology patented? How are you going to protect the intellectual property in a part of the world where copying without paying copyright or license fees is a way of life? We once had an expression in the United States about injustice based upon race; remember the expression "He has a Chinaman's chance." What that racial reference was about went back to what happened to non-English-speaking people who were different and were apprehended by the law and taken before a judge and jury. Acquittal on a serious felony was unheard of; the statisticians among us turned those facts into "A Chinaman's Chance." Now the tables are turned and western entreprenours are trying to make a buck in Asia. If a legal dispute arises, and they always do, in an Asian court your best bet now is to bet on the Asian side of the dispute.
There are lots of other issues, but the legal ones are so burning and so unresolved that they need to be mentioned first.
Unsecured loans to a late-stage development company are a very risky proposition.
What are the facts?
1. New Visual Corporation has no product.
2. New Visual Corporation has no tangible assets that it could pledge to secure a loan.
3. New Visual Corporation so far has not recorded very much in terms of sales, revenue, income, or earnings.
Who in their right mind would go out on a limb and make an unsecured loan to New Visual Corporation?
Since porscha has made a gentlemanly approach to challenge my veracity, I will attempt to reply in kind.
Unfortunately, my investment association with New Visual goes back to the 3D movie days. My association with this board is, however, brand new. When the time comes for complete disclosure, you will get it.
For the time being, without looking for psychological or other probing rationale, I am here to learn and contribute.
For example, the research and work you are doing about the potentials in Asia is solid and I would encourage it. The problems in Asia for legitimate business are manifold. As you have to be aware, sooner or later there are legal issues that arise. In civilized western nations, court systems have long been established to resolve problems and the decisions are binding and have consequences. What do you know about the legal remedies available to an American outsider in most Asian courts? As I tried to convince Groovemaster, Mukden in Manchuria isn't Jamestown in North Dakota.
Before I decided to actively participate as a poster on the board, I read the board and tried to determine its saliency. I discerned that there were two pretty firm camps and a lot of intelligence in the amorphous and largest group of participants. Since I have started posting and taken my lumps, I am learning more about the posters here.
The first camp which I choose to label the Sycophants probably has at least two subdivisions:
1. Subdivision 1 is made up of the ardent company management supporters who believe in Embarq and the future of the company, no matter what the record. These are true believers.
2. Subdivision 2 is composed of those who are touters and who are, of have been, receiving rewards for their shilling activities. In my opinion, poor Carl is forever outed. Halston, IMO, nailed him; trex/trexville is going to forever be branded and has been awarded a Scarlet Letter for his pollution of this world; no, not the letter "A," but a bright whorehouse "P."
The second camp is the bashers. Enough said about these negative nabobs, many of whom have come to their positions through adversity. Most of these people are not nigglers, but they are genuine.
Perhaps the disturbing observation that I am making is that congealing out of the amorphous mass is an emerging third group. These posters don't tolerate opionion if the views don't coincide with their own. These posters do not want to be presented with factual material. They want confirming spin and only that. It appears to me that they do not understand technology and either they have no ability to learn or just do not want to try to fathom what is going on in the tech world. It also appears to me that they do not comprehend the tough world of trying to finance a start-up public corporation with a potentially-useful tech product in this very competitive
world. They also do not understand a business plan and the vagaries of trying to meet target dates. I shall not label this emerging group at this time, but perhaps they will self label at some time in the near future.
Positive Contribution by Readers and Posters: Conduct a Survey
Someone had a good suggestion to help the management of RIM semi go where the pickings might be good. Retiresoon might have an opinion on the idea.
If it is true that in many areas one and only one cable company operates and that those monopolistic cable companies do not treat their customers right, perhaps those areas could be scientifically and accurately located, mapped, and described.
On the other hand, in many areas one and only telephone company is currently delivering local telephone service and they are taking good care of their customers. Those areas would also be of interest and would need to be identified, located, mapped, and described.
In areas where the cable service is fine, great, or superior and the local telephone companies are viewed as awful or negligent, those areas need to marked as places to stay away from with Embarq.
Somehow, if it is possible, a survey needs to be taken and the results analyzed to disclose those fruitful areas for potential introduction of Embarq technology to help those telecoms which might be able to not only compete in a WAR against the cable companies, but win that war because of bad reputations and bad service that the cable companies have been tagged with by potential consumers. The stinging question on the survey would have to read specifically: "If your local telephone service company would be able to deliver bundled services of television, telephone, and high-speed broadband to you at a reasonable rate, would you switch to purchasing those services from your local telephone company and away from your cable service provider?"
Any one else have any ideas on how to make a positive contribution to management's marketing efforts by helping them target areas with disgruntled cable service customers who have a favorable opinion of their local telephone company and might be willing to switch their bundled service from the cable provider to their local telephone company?
An Interpretation of Rim's Allegory
Here goes a shot in the dark!
Cast of Characters
Lycus and his Attendants: Readers and posters to this Board
Heracles and his wife: Shareholders of RIM semi
Children: Beneficiaries of the Investment in NVEI
Amphityron: The powerful former lady Board Member of NVEI
Zeus: Dr. David Greaves of Cambridge University
New god: Embarq
Megara: Wife of the guy who is going to fund Embarq
Dead father: New Visual Corporation.
Rim's allegory could read this way:
The readers and posters of this board have opened a session.
The shareholders are about to see their investment in NVEI collapse. These shareholders are afraid that the beneficiaries are going to be out a lot of investment monies.
"Why are you so afraid of losing your investments?"
"Who is going to take care of your beneficiaries?"
"How will you swallow this bitter loss?"
"Who is coming back from the dead in Hell to save us?"
"And you, oh powerful lady Board Member, did you persuade Dr. Greaves to come up with something new, something that will work?" "After all, you did make lots of noise and claims all over the place about New Wheel Technology!"
"Hey NICE lady from overseas, did you convince your estimable husband to finance Embarq?"
RIM, this is pretty heavy allegory for a plain guy like me.
Is this from a script of a soap opera you are writing? Am I supposed to identify the seven dwarfs at RIM semi from your characterizations? Who, for example, is dead in Hell and is coming back to ressurect the company and save our lives? John Howell who is elsewhere, but I don't think he is in Hell? Thom Cooper who is elsewhere, but I don't think he is in Hell? Surely not one of the California garage tinkers? Wow, what a powerful piece. Key it in so that I can understand the message, please.
If you are looking into Greek mythology for my namesake, please look for a God so I can have some vanity, not just a ruler of some unidentified land that you haven't named.
Allegory is very powerful stuff.
WARNING: Escapists on the Loose!
Asia has always been the place to go for people who can't make it in America. It is an illusion, friend.
Teeming masses they got. Starving people they got. Their own money, they ain't got.
Dreamers, escapists, and RIM semi are all dillusional if they truly believe that all they have to do is send their snake oil salemen to Asia and it is Open Sesame. George Bush and his nutty foreign affairs advisors made the same mistake by going to Baghdad and figuring it was liberating Paris all over again. Our troops are getting ambushed and killed in Mesopotamia, not because we are non-Muslims; not because we are Non-Arabs, not because we are 'mericans. We are getting killed because we are foreign invaders. Nationalism lives. The Iraquis may be Shiites, and Sunni, and Kurds and hate each other. But they threw off centuries of Ottoman rule with the help of the Brits; then they threw out the Brits. They would rather live hating and killing each other as Ali Baba and the forty million thieves in a nationalist Iraq than Ken and Barbie in the hanging gardens of Babylon supervised by western foreign invaders who want to suck out every last drop of oil.
Escapists and dreamers and missionaries and RIM semi have too much in common. Blind hope in the face of reality. The realities are that there is no established rule of law with a courts system and a government to enforce legal decisions in Asia outside of Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore. Bribery and corruption are what rule in Asia. Trying to do business in Asia today is like telling the Mob in 1960 that you would like to open a Casino in Las Vegas and set the payouts from the slot machines to give the tourists a fairer shake. A free market enterprise developer had about as much of a chance to do legitimate business as a casino operator in Las Vegas in 1964 as a free market legitimate businessman does in Asia today. The Asian culture and business world are not located in North Dakota, Groovemaster.
Thank you Porscha for doing some research to validate some ideas on Embarq.
If you believe that Asia is where RIM semi can succeed, then you should proclaim your findings to the world.
As a young man, I remember learning about the potential of the Chinese market for western goods and services. At the time we had lots of religious missionaries in China to convert the heathens and bring them the bounties of European civilization. It was "oil for the lamps of China" time.
Next thing I remember is our airmen flying the Hump to bring essentials to fight the Japanese in China and how human labor was pooled by the Nationalist government into human animals to lay down rock and metal so that the ground could be called an airfield and that the dogs were not pets, but walking stewpot meat.
Then my friends were drafted to go to Korea to kill the Yellow Chinamen who were crossing the Yalu River in hordes with good artillery to help Dugout Doug get the troops home by Christmas (in body bags and coffins). WE then saw the Little Red Book, Mao worship, the Cultural Revolution, and lots of nonsense. After Nixon went to China, they became our buddies and trading partners. They are still communists and their embrace of the enterprising of their country is capital-dependent. Do you remember the uprising in Peking and the massacres? Democracy in China and a free enterprise system with a rule of law is very far away. If you don't like my opinion, then please consider how hard the residents of Hong Kong are trying to maintain their system largely inherited from the British colonialists which keeps them relatively prosperous and much different from their fellow countrymen on the mainland.
Is RIM semi going to Asia because there is a genuine demand and opportunity for Embarq or are they still imbued with the spirit of conversion and want to provide oil for the lamps of China?
Please be aware that I am not posting from a book or a script. I am just trying to get at the truth, at the heart of the matter. Rim challenged me by asking for facts. When he gets the facts I am now posting from a book. It was not a book, but a list from Morgan Stanley. Do you think I am a walking computer with all of the factual data at my fingertips? You asked me for data because you said my post was a dig and fluff. When you get authentic facts you can't accept that either. Let's see, you don't like opinion and you don't like facts. You sound like a typical New Visual Corporation investor! What do you like, Jim Beam on the rocks with a twist?
For my good friend Cosmo:
Billions of investment in China when taking consideration of their huge infrastructure needs is like pouring a cup of fresh water into the Pacific Ocean to reduce the saline content. I am not denying that what you describe is not happening, but if they are smart, they will build cellular towers and not lay fiber optics or copper wires. Cosmo, do you realize that just to keep up with population and economic growth, China literally needs to start up a new electrical generating plant every WEEK?
IN REPLY TO THE RIMSTER:
Please consult a good source for national economies and do the comparisons as I do not have my list to hand.
To knock your socks off, my capitalistic pig, get ready for the market capitalization stats:
We (the US) have over 10 TRILLION.
Japan has about 2 trillion, but remember much of that is not real because the banks can't sell the inflated land anywhere near the prices they carry those assets on their books and everybody knows it.
ONLY Hong Kong and Singapore appear on the radar screen as being of limited interest for this discussion.
Hong Kong comes it at about 132 billion (Oracle has a higher market cap than Hong Kong; I disclose I own a few shares of Oracle)
Singapore totals about 65 billion (Eli Lilly had a good day today and has a market cap of around 66 billion; I used to own Eli Lilly, but I disclose I no longer own that fine American pharmaceutical company).
THE FACTS: There was a meltdown in Asia a few years ago and they have never recovered. No other nation in Asia makes the Morgan Stanley International Market Capitalization listing because they are very, very, very poor. Not China, not Thailand, not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not India; none. Those are the facts.
Who wants to parse the Asian Rim information presented in the Portland proxy statement? By the way, I don't even know who or what an RB boy or boyz is/are. I am not spoiling for a fight.
I am glad that you recognize you have a tobacco addiction. That may be the first step in saving and prolonging your life. But just don't acknowledge the problem. QUIT SMOKING.
If you can't do it on your own, or cold turkey, GET HELP.
To the inquiring mind who asked about my recent visits to the Asian area. How about a FIVE-star hotel on Old Orchard Road within walking distance to some great restaurants and shopping? A fresh Singapore Sling at Raffles while nibbling on peanuts? Public transport to New Town. Smelling the duran fruit. WALKING the Causeway into Malaya to see why the brave Brits got surprised by the Japanese who attacked across the water from the NORTH. Sweating, but enjoying every wet drip, while doing the fabulous orchid gardens at the Botanical Gardens. Having tea and hand-feeding a beautiful female orangutan at the Zoo and shedding not a few tears knowing that the habitat of these lovely and peaceful animals is being systematically destroyed by greedy timbering interests, thus condemming this species of great ape and one of our near-cousins in the wildlife world to extinction. Missing a well-researched investment opportunity in an upstart, aggressive shipping company because my American-based brokerage house didn't have the resources to do the research and wouldn't accept mine so I didn't have the wherewithall to make the investment.
Just some quick bytes in reply:
Jason, please stop smoking TONIGHT. We love you, man, and even Camel Ultra Lights are cancer sticks. My old roommate's wife is a tobacco addict; she is now taking chemotherapy. The cancer is inoperable in her liver and it started in her lungs. Her hair is falling out and it is not pleasant. Even when she KNEW, she still snuck around to suck in some more poison. Better a live sycophant than a dead cancerstick addict.
Board Monitor: I promise no side jobs. I make my bread as an investor and have since 1981. Personally, I give you this advice. Invest ONLY in what you thoroughly understand; otherwise you will spend your life (not just the investment portion thereof) shunning regrets. In My Opinion, 2003 will be a good year; 2004 will be a decent year. Invest here in the US because if you think that ENRON, World Com, Tyco, etc. were not very transparent, try ASIA where you can't even get a good translation, let alone any insights.
Jason and his fellow sycophants have found the Golden Fleece in RIM semi!
In Never Never Land wherein resides Pengy, the cable company is not loved, but it is loathed. Perhaps his area is a potential demonstration area for Embarq on the domestic scene.
Jason's major thrust is not to worry about the USA because RIM intends to go to Asia where the huddled masses are just waiting for Embarq. What is Jason smoking these days?
Has anyone looked or traveled overseas lately? Japan is the only Asian area where people have enough food, clothing, shelter, transportation, and real disposable income to even look at for possible Embarq deployment. Japan has the world's third highest GDP, but their economy is still based upon inflated land values that neither the banks nor the government are willing to discount. In Japan, we can learn that broadband is rather popular. In my reading, I have discovered that in some Japanese domestic market situations you can get 10 megabytes for a fee of $10 per month. If those numbers are correct, lots of luck introducing Embarq and expecting to make money.
Perhaps South Korea is a target area; their population is at least surviving, but their tiny economy is not booming yet.
Having been to Asia, I find nowhere that looks very prosperous to me. China has a billion people; their economy is where Japan was in 1962. They have a huge labor pool, but the people work hard for near-slave wages. A wealthy Chinaman is someone with property and a steady job that pays more than $4 per day. Want to go to China with Embarq? Ever drive a 1962 Japanese automobile? They were still beating out old US beercans to find metal to work with in 1962 in Japan. You want to look to the future in China---wait a generation.
How does India look to you with a rising middle class and lots of internet savvy? No GDP and they are still killing themselves over religious disputes: Sihks, Hindus, and Moslems do not have a civil society yet, let alone an economy. Yes, we can look to poor Pakistan, starving Bangladesh, and the rest of Asia and I challenge anyone to find an economy that will support decent living, let alone disposable income for broadband, telephone, data and other bundling that Embarq needs as a base. No doubt that Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore are isolated stable areas worthy of consideration---but the population is somewhat small. How about Indonesia? Please be aware that I speak from experience and investment in that poor part of the world; cellular telephony is the way for those people because hardwiring those islands is too expensive.
Hail, hail, the gang's ALL here!
Just want to throw in my two cents for what it is worth: I have no doubt that Porscha knows more about telecom equipment wraps and payments than I ever will. But for crying out loud, it is not the Capital Expenditures that is going to kill the telecoms if they fight another WAR with the cable competition, it is the SALES COSTS loosely calculated as how much will it cost to attract a customer either to switch from cable to telecom for their bundled service or to make a new sale to a customer to bundle service from the telco.
These costs are terrific and I really doubt that the telecos have the ammunition, the borrowing power, or the intestinal fortitude to fight another WAR. From where I am sitting, I also have my doubts if the telecos have ever changed their corporate culture from the regulated (read "monopoly") carpeted offices to the bare bones, bare walled, bare floored world of competition.
With cellular phone number portability, a new generation is willing to cut the landline connection and go ALL-cellular, the telecoms continue their death spiral from the heady and profitable days when only Ma Bell provided our telephony services. The telco guys left are waiting to retire, to hold on to their pensions, to ride out the bad times and head into the setting sun. They do not have what it takes to fight a WAR against aggressive, young, and very competitive cable sales people.
Offense was taken and accepted as a slam. If this is the way of initiating first time posters who are trying to reintroduce civility and respect to this board, then both you and Rob need to examine the purpose of this board. No legitimate poster should be shunned; every genuine post deserves to be read. If the game is going to be ignore and abhor, this won't be a board much longer. Pull it together. RIM semi consists of seven (7) employees; none of whom is an active electronics engineer. There are more members of the RIM Board of Directors and its Technical Advisory Board than work for the company. Bell Labs it ain't. If the RIM people monitor this board and take the posts seriously, they deserve to be able to read the direction and depth of the concerns of their shareholders. Slamming, dissing, venting, and scrapping have no place on a serious investors' board. We need to attract serious posters who have both a financial and an intellectual stake in Embarq since it looks like all the eggs are in that basket at RIM semi. Try to stay positive and keep the board interesting. The next few weeks could be critical for the company. Let's hope that by the time they get the name changed to RIM semi they are still around to do business. Thom Cooper flew the coop; how long do you think we have Brad Ketch caught up in the game?
Having been slammed by Pengy and dissed by Rob, I guess that conversation had better stay between the sheets. My opinion is that chat rooms are great for deciphering technology jargon and/or scientifically-written papers. An informational board is where people who do understand the science and technology can discuss the applicability to the investment at hand. In other words, if one of the alleged competitors to Embarq makes a claim in a press release or in a white paper, somebody who posts on this board can either refute the claim or substantiate it. Personally, at that point, I would look forward to hearing theoretical discussion and comparison with the real world and what Embarq proposes to be. What I am really saying, is that this board should be beyond Pengy the Sycophant and getting his veracity challenged by Spokes or some basher as we agonized over all last week. I do not want ANY censorship or "translation." I am looking for informed opinion, news, analysis, and authoritative commentary about RIM semi and its world. If you think I am a rookie and deserve to be hazed, slammed, and dissed, then you will soon drive away all serious investors and those who remain can entertain themselves by making Pengy uneasy, miserable, and defensive of himself and the current company leadership.
This is an informational board, not a "spoon-feeder."
Yes there are undoubtedly lots of people who do not understand all of the technological aspects of transmitting electronic signals over 24-gauge twisted pair copper wires.
By the same token, there are many more people who do not understand the corporate financing of start-up companies in the United States.
I promise you that there are several readers of this board who do not and cannot understand a business plan based upon somehow inducing the telephone companies who are broke, in debt, or otherwise hobbled to start another WAR with the cable companies to determine who will deliver video, telephony, and data services to commercial and residential end users.
Nevertheless, this community of board readers and posters will continue to try to communicate among ourselves the news, views, opinions, and commentaries as these concepts relate to New Visual Corporation, soon to become RIM semi. On this board, posting should be encouraged without having the poster be required to digest, analyze, and report. The standards should be positive and interesting posts.
That Tim and Ray are both on tonight signals potentially very interesting dialogue and analysis in the future.
Certainly, information about competitors, potential competitors, competing products, and potentially competing products should be of interest. Unless I am missing something, all the board monitors are asking of posters with straight press releases from other companies and similar information is to preface the posting with a few words. This does not require the poster to digest and analyze the information. It is akin to the cue on eBay which reads something like: "I saw this and am bringing it to your attention because I think you might be interested in it." No more or no less. The board monitors are not asking the poster of the press releases of newswire or other items to vouch for the accuracy of the information or anything else. I do NOT think it unreasonable for new board monitors to try to let the posters know what they think is necessary to keep the board moving in a positive and interesting way without imposing heavy censorship.
Keeping the board positive and interesting should be the ways to go.
This is the first post from a skeptical investor. News about potential competitors and their products is information. That the board monitors want posters to preface the supposed press releases or news stories with an explanation may be the rule, but it does not really contribute either to the positive or the interesting. Nevertheless, let's have decorum and please follow the rules.
Please be aware that I stumbled upon this board from a quote page. Later, an investor associate endorsed this board and said that it pays to read, understand, and analyze what some of the more knowledgeable and experienced posters offer. I am still searching for those nuggets. So far, what I seem to find are a couple of different wings: the sycophants and the bashers. The former are the ones who were in Portland and refused to ask management the tough questions. The latter are the sideliners and hindsighters who are disgruntled, bitter, disillusioned, bloody, and battered.
Volume today represented something. Tax selling? Final gasps?
Insiders? When there is some volume, no direction, no swing, and no momentum, the skeptics believe in stagnation. Please don't be foolish. Without news, a catalyst, or REAL financing; what will move RIM semi?