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Yes, 30% is comical as are those $29K, $93K, $144K, $227K, $300K holders. Nothing like taking a $29K stake with $400+ billion under management. That's some real conviction. Haha!!
I have no real predictions for HGEN. EUA may come, but they still haven't filed (end of the month per the latest release) throw on top of that a month for FDA consideration and we're talking late June or early July before any decision. U.S. COVID cases have fallen considerably and will continue to do so... and thus, is there really an emergency use need? Maybe in other parts of the world where cases are still way too high, however, nobody around the world is going to pay squat for the drug. Thus, these crazy $1 billion revenue estimates are pie-in-the sky non-sense and then you have this board that thinks HGEN can have a market capitalization in a year or two worth more than MRK, BMY, PFE, ABT, ABBV, etc., which not only generate billions in free cash flow per year, but own billions of dollars of assets, drug pipelines, etc.. It's nothing but comical non-sense that is thrown around on this board.
GILD, one of the main CAR-T players, walked away from HGEN... If HGEN had something worth partnering or owning, GILD would have paid for it just like they have in the past (VRUS, KITE, etc.). But, spin doctor Management says the opposite and this board believes this non-sense. Not surprising though...
No idea where the share price goes from here, however, it was an obvious and easy short at $30+ and will be if it ever gets to that level again. Sadly, this board is filled with non-sensical longs who think HGEN's market capitalization should be based on a multiple of potential revenues.
FDA Approval is not possible without full clinical trials. EUA is possible but HGEN has not filed and who knows when that will happen. Second, have you read the analysis reports? If not, you should because their share price estimates are based on EUA approval and in most cases very aggressive revenue forecasts.
Haha.... Definitely not. That assumes 100K vials at $10k per vial which is pie-in the sky non-sense and approval across a number of foreign countries. No foreign country will pay anywhere close to that number.
FDA Approval is not possible.
Haha... I live in reality. Enjoy your Fantasy Island.
Sadly, if I have to educate you on this, you should not be investing in any biotech/pharma company. Under the table handshake deals that nobody knows about is clearly how the FDA works.
Haha... What reality are you living in? It would take HGEN years to get production to 10 million vials and billions of dollars. You fail to consider that U.S. hospitalizations are falling fast and will continue to do so as people get vaccinated. How could HGEN provide several million doses when it'll take 12 months just to get to 100K doses? You also fail to consider foreign countries aren't going to pay squat for a dose.
BLAHAHAHA!! HGEN would be the 23rd most valued company in the S&P 500 if that was true. Bigger than Pfizer, Merck, Abbott, Abbvie, Bristol Myers, Amgen, Intel, Coke, Exxon Mobil, Cisco, etc.
Assuming 450 million people, they would need 900 million doses (2 doses each) to get everyone vaccinated. Given the likelihood of having to take the vaccine every year, the EU appears to have secured enough doses for 2022 and 2023 (another 900 million).
Never said I did. However, longs have lost a nice chunk of change on their position from March 29's $29+ to today.
LIVE-AIR has two important limitations. First, while it demonstrated an improvement in survival in subjects with CRP<150 mg/L and aged <85, the study was not powered to observe a survival benefit, and indeed did not achieve statistical significance on this key secondary endpoint in the mITT population.
Second, the observations pertaining to benefits in the population that had CRP<150 mg/L and age <85 were exploratory.
Pretty sweeet returns for shorts... From $29+ down to $13 and change. Longs on the other hand are still down $10 from the highs. But, keep your shares tight and don't sell until $100 or $500.
It proves exactly my point that people know. And if people know, people talk. Its only natural.
Think what you want, dude. My M&A day job says I would know if HGEN was on the block and they ain't.
This is complete and utter non-sense because you have no idea what you're talking about. If HGEN was looking to sell itself, it would hire an investment bank who would prepare a CIP, make calls to a good number of potential buyers to obtain interest and start initial discussions. If initial discussions moved forward... legal teams, diligence providers, etc., are brought in. In active processes hundreds of people know about the deal and even though NDA's are signed, it doesn't stop people from talking about it which turns hundreds into thousands of people in the know. Also, if a third party reached out to HGEN with a buyout proposal, said proposal would need to be disclosed to the board and eventually to shareholders and clearly that has not happened.
What does the media have to do with anything? You act like information isn't shared that never makes it to the media. Investment banks/bankers/diligence providers, etc., all talk.
You have NO idea what you're talking about. Investment banks often purposely leak discussions to help drive additional parties to the table. Also, repercussions are only if we trade on the news or share news with others who trade on it.
Hahaha!! Hello, when you're in talks with someone people know. Lots of people know --- Executive Management teams of all parties, Investment Bankers, Lawyers, Diligence providers, Board of Directors, etc. You act like nobody talks... You clearly have never worked in the M&A world, I have for decades.
Haha... Glad you finally know what a dataroom is. I've been in thousands of them in my time. The fact that a dataroom has been "set-up" means absolutely nothing as it costs peanuts to set-one up. Cameron did NOT mention the dataroom had been populated nor did he mentioned 3rd parties were given access. BTW, datarooms are used for a lot of reasons other than M&A.
It is NOT possible for the FDA to grant approval without clinical trials and a thorough FDA review process. If it was, there wouldn't be a need for EUA.
I'll simplify it for you... No investment bankers, diligence providers, etc., have been hired by HGEN or any potential buyer to discuss a potential buyout of HGEN.
You clearly haven't been following the trend in new cases, hospitalizations, etc. in the U.S.. Everyone doesn't need to be vaccinated to reduce caseloads to a very small number which will be the case by mid-to-late Summer.
I'll take this as your way of admitting you have no way of arguing your point.
Huh? Everyone knew it was going to take time for vaccines to be rolled out and the U.S. is well ahead where anyone thought. Treatments won't be a pressing matter in the U.S. in a few weeks to a month and thus, HGEN (to the extent it gets EUA) is going to have to figure out how to get foreign countries to approve and buy its treatment. Everyone on this board keeps saying $10K per dose which is completely absurd.
The last time this data was presented, the share price went to $33+. Looks like investors are less interested in the data this time around. I wonder why...
Shorts had it easy because they knew Management was going to raise capital... They shorted it on the spike and thru the offering and have largely covered.
Nobody is going to pay $10K per treatment, not even in the U.S. The vast majority of cases are outside the U.S.. The per capita income in India is ~$2,100. Brazil's per capita income is ~$9K. And you think they are going to pay $10,000? Maybe $200 or $300.
Every drug has different production timelines (some are easy and cheap to produce others the exact opposite). Second, HGEN has no production and is spending $200+ million to get contract manufacturers to a 100K annual run-rate. Comparing PFE, MRK, etc., have massive production abilities they've invested tens of billions of dollars. Comparing them to HGEN is beyond laughable.
LIVE-AIR has two important limitations. First, while it demonstrated an improvement in survival in subjects with CRP<150 mg/L and aged < 85, the study was not powered to observe a survival benefit, and indeed did not achieve statistical significance on this key secondary endpoint in the mITT population. Second, the observations pertaining to benefits in the population that had CRP<150 mg/L and age < 85 were exploratory.
The vast majority of those cases will never see a hospital and will either result in death or full recovery before HGEN could produce a few hundred vials. Also, foreign countries don't pay anywhere near what the U.S. pays for drugs and no third world country would ever spend $10k for a dose... Try at most a few hundred dollars.
10 million vials?! Management noted it will take 12 months to get production to an annual production rate of 100K units. Clearly, you don't understand what that means.