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"how much can HB really get"
Perhaps the question is how much can Denner really get?
"Moving forward in Japan and in other markets lifting of clinical holds on a trial-by-trial basis will be ultimate goal of moving to the earlier lines of treatment moving to a substantial entry into the second line and ultimately to first line based upon strengthening the benefit risk of Iclusig and new clinical data that we’ll be generating and the medical community at large will be generating." HB
The clarity of this statement is impressive. Would HB have said this with such certainty if he was not extremely confident of financing?
Friday is usually a slow day. But maybe not this one.
With so much partnership talk in the air, if you are short your fear is that an announcement will come over the week-end and you will wake Monday to a nightmare.
I expect short covering may be the action today.
2da -- I think your condition is called manic-depression.
(just kidding)
Perhaps the Board seat was a reward for negotiating a partnership.
For me, comments on this board about a buyout show backwards thinking.
The only and the obvious reason Ariad would consider a buyout is cash. They don't have enough to run the trials that need to be run.
For Ariad the cash problem can be fatal. But, for a buyer, it is just a $200 million dollar addition to their investment. Like needing to add a bathroom to a house you are buying. The buyer of Ariad is buying an approved drug with numerous possible applications; a second drug that may be bic; a third drug that is ready; a terrific lab to generate more pipeline; a huge lease on prime space in Cambridge; other deals -- Medinol, Bellicum, argent kits etc.
Of course if there were only one buyer in the market and that buyer understood Ariad's desperation, the company could be had for $12-15. But if there is a larger market and competition for Ariad, the price would meet and perhaps exceed its long term value.
Enter Dr. Denner. He understands the science and can preach its long-term value to big pharmas and that is what he is doing right now.
So don't look from the perspective of a small biotech desperate for cash. Take the perspective of a wealthy pharma desperate for product.
Just a reminder that Rida is already under examination by Medinol for the medical device market. This is a non-exclusive deal.
Today one positive ph3 drug result raised the share price of
ITMN 160%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=itmn&ql=1
"unannounced drug, with high expectations,
based on initial clinical studies."
Amp. I think you mean "pre-clinical" studies.
What's with all the hand-wringing?
We got our wish -- an agressive investor on the board who has expertise in both deal-making and biotech. His mo up to now has been to take a broken company, fix it and sell it for maximum value.
The fixing part is well under way and is reflected in the stock rise from 2. Now we wait for the rest of the fixing... new Iclusig trials, 113, partnerships etc.
The day-to-day fluctuations are irrelevant. If he succeeds, my guess is we will have a steady, slow stock price rise for about a year, followed by a sale. After which he will have established his reputation, independent of Icahn, and we will all be somewhat wealthier (except of course the shorts and those unfortunate longs who lost their nerve during the crash).
Good link br. It also leads to this interesting bio of Denner..
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-reports/25-most-influential-people-biopharma-today/alex-denner-25-most-influential-people-bi
Thanks Jo. It helps to understand what he might consider a good profit.
Anyone know what Sarissa's average cost basis might be?
I have no idea.
2MM shares in five minutes. Perhaps a little panic buying. Sure beats panic selling.
Thanks rum. We may finally have an exciting annual meeting this year.
As I suspected, HB understands that, at this stage, he needs Denner's skill set.
Let the bidding begin (or continue).
BR -- Just my guess. They are being cute about this pending the outcome of some funding development.. partnership, buyout etc.
If they are in discussions with a major pharma, I think their option on the space is actually an asset. Well-located Cambridge industrial/biotech property is very limited and very expensive.
Without such a development I doubt their projected Iclusig and pipeline income over the next several years could pay the rent. Prior to the FDA disaster they could have easily paid with some dilution, but I doubt that is much of an option at these levels. Of course, jmo.
Raising the bar for buyouts..
Facebook just bought WhatsApp for $16 billion.
That is $350 million for each WhatsApp employee.
Seems just about right as a comparator with Ariad.
I think HB and Denner interests will align and Denner will be welcomed to the Board. These past few months almost brought down the whole enterprise. HB is probably somewhat chastened. Denner has skills he can use.
More than some. My largest holding.
License Iclusig in Asia to finance 113.
According to this chartist, once ARIA crossed $7.75 it was destined to be at $10 by the end of Feb and the gap it is filling ends up at just over $16.
Very interesting chart..
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ARIA/
Best in Class...
Without an agreed upon definition, the debate is senseless.
The latest seeking alpha article this morning has been rightly criticized on this board.
It only took about two hours for Ariad to turn green after the open.
The more the shorts "cry wolf", the fewer investors actually listen.
Jess..
Harvey is a counter-puncher. He's doing the ropa-dope just like Ali. But when he sees the moment, watch out shorts, Novartis, AF etc.
This is not his first encounter with obstacles.
Patience grasshopper.
113 on the market?
What am I missing? Maybe they are just selling to docs running trials. There must be a simple explanation that I don't see.
Kipster-- Thanks for this excellent analysis.
Just one minor point..
"I have a hard time believing ARIAD would merge with a company HB does not like."
He only has to like the offer not the company. He has a fiduciary responsibility. HB is a tough guy, but he is not crazy.
I should add that in the patent dispute HB, imo, was completely misled by his lawyers and perhaps even by his in-house lawyer. If HB were given truth serum I think he would admit that Aria never had a chance and that it was a waste of a huge amount of money.
In handicapping the potential buyer, follow the money.
What pharma has its income most threatened by the drugs that ARIA has developed?
Novartis.
Risk on -- Its called "climbing a wall of worry".
That is one of the toughest calls for an investor.
Unfortunate timing --
Just as Ariad is starting to look better and better, the overall market is starting to look worse and worse.
I suspect that if the market were surging up now, Ariad would be a few dollars higher.
Huge grain of salt. That report is from Sierra and their "biotech expert Johnny".
Still, its a nice dream.. $12 plus a half share of PFE.
Shorts are jumping ship.
The two sweetest words any long can hear -- "bidding war".
Imagine -- Fund managers using trial docs as paid consultants.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-17/sac-s-martoma-faces-doctor-u-s-says-tipped-him-on-tests.html
I'm shocked, shocked !!
This news would not seem to justify this move.
Just wonder if there is another shoe to drop.
Rida back from the grave.
I hope this announcement just prior to the conference is just a coincidence. If they are counting on this to make a splash at the conference then I suspect we all will be disappointed.
Not saying the collaboration won't work. But it is years off and milestone payments are not overwhelming. Additonally, Medinol is a private company so its difficult to guage progress. Their history includes lots of litigation, especially with Boston Scientific. Anyone know what percent of the stent market they have?
Things are heating up in the blood cancer arena...
http://articles.philly.com/2014-01-05/news/45885527_1_jude-children-research-hospital-cancer-therapy
Cash.
I'm not sure about the timing, but if the Japan trial is successfully concluded, I can see a partnership with a Japanese pharma for Iclusig distribution in Asia. Its a large market. JMO.
yes, monopoly power... check out this post on the SGMO board --
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1933&mn=60119&pt=msg&mid=13407225
"The float has traded 1.58x in the past 2 trading sessions. That means all the shares have been bought and sold between fridays low and high and todays low and high"
No, it doesn't. It just means that many of the same shares have been bought and sold over and over again. That is how computer algos do their business.