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Hope is not really an investment strategy.
Assuming the drug works, that AEs are minimal, that competition doesn't spring up etc... Still, how many years away is the income stream?
Perhaps that is why the market reaction thus far is -- thud.
Follow-up question please?
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/bioflash/2016/01/ariad-preps-for-a-sale-but-new-chairman-says-it.html?ana=yahoo
“In terms of M&A specifically, our near-term plan is not to try to sell the company, but I would say that over the long term, Ariad will probably be working with, or be part of, a bigger company,” Denner said in the interview.
Meg, you might have then asked Denner to define "long term".
Why isn't salary included as part of the "inducement package"?
Wow.. there must have been plenty for competition for Paris' leadership. We sure got him cheap. What a steal.
Yes, the original question was about the sector. But he is there to promote Ariad (and not to explain why Sarissa is underperforming). He could have easily segued into Ariad.
For example, "Ariad has been hit hard like all the biotechs but we have made all these great advances this year..."
Denner is there for Denner. If Ariad shareholders benefit, it is strictly coincidental. My opinion.
2da-
Well, if his cost is $4 is there much doubt he would dump this tar baby for $10-12?
So the CoB of Ariad is also head of Sarissa. Is there any conflict of interest to the shareholders of the two groups?
If you are looking for $20 I hope you are in no hurry.
We could see clearly why he's no salesman and why Icahn apparently let him go without a fight. Not a word about the pipeline, the lab, the poison pill disposal. Not exactly our savior.
He's now the COB and all he could say was.. low valuations, bio overvalued, we are in no hurry etc. I doubt Paris got much inspiration from his new mentor.
Gee, 2da... "Nobody is looking forward to attending the 2016 AGM". Well, I am. Didn't he talk about new "refreshments"?
2da -- Shorty has been doing pretty damn well. No doubt they are very cocky at this point. I would imagine their advice to Denner would be -- If you find yourself in a deep hole, stop digging.
Ahh, the scraping of deck chairs.
Yes, PP will be with us for a long time.
To quote HB... i.e. Humphrey Bogart, "We'll always have Paris."
Potted plants.
The upside.. the next annual meeting should include some excellent dolmades (assuming the BoD elects to attend).
Thanks for the exhaustive reply.
It certainly sounds like you know what you are doing and of course I wish you the best.
2da --
Wow. You have energy,man! Better buckle-up the chin strap it will be a long and expensive road. I wish you luck.
Question -- What happens to your effort if the company is sold?
Would the actual price of the sale make a difference?
thanks
If this post is in reference to Ariad owning 10% of Bellicum, I can report that is exactly what Harvey told me privately at one of the annual meetings. And he suggested that it could have enormous value.
So, was his sale of the Ariad interest a bad deal? Unclear.
The Ariad drug works as an on/off switch in Bellicum's immunotherapy treatment to avoid a potntially fatal patient response. However, as I understand it (which may be not very well), once the switch is activated, the treatment is over... it can't be restarted.
There are other on/off technologies out there that do not have this limitation. They can turn the treatment on and off repeatedly and can also modulate the reaction while it is happening. For Bellicum to be successful they may have to license this seemingly superior technology.
Merck Serono has been trying hard to distinguish its brand from US Merck.
They are interested in oncology but,of late, that direction has been immunotherapy. They recently formed a partnership with ZIOP and purchased the development rights for two CAR-T applications (the designation of which has been kept secret) plus rights to select four more applications. Their prior chemotherapy efforts have not turned out well.
In addition to all the usual suspects... crappy management, poorly designed trials, FDA conflict, failure to keep deadlines etc. one thing that worries me is that big pharma is starting to accept that immunotherapy is where it is at.. making Ariad yesterday's news.
Regarding your view that Denner has been the wizard behind the Icahn empire... perhaps. I always wonder how hard Icahn actually tried to keep his services.
But, how can you beat a new CEO whose last name is impossible to pronounce.
2da -- My opinion. Denner is second tier. He gave us hope for a while but has not been able to close.
The fund business is very competitive. Watch for Sarissa to lose investors in the next year. It is a "show me the money" business.
Sad. Ariad had good science people and a great lab. All wasted at a time when lesser companies have been gobbled up. Watch for a fire sale and a price under $10.
As you can tell, I've lost confidence in management. Good luck with your lawsuit... not sure how you will be able to afford it.
On the plus side, you may only have to face the Ariad in-house counsel whose record speaks for itself.
Does Denner run Ariad as well as he runs Sarissa?
Here is an analysis of Sarissa's performance.
http://whalewisdom.com/filer/sarissa-capital-management-lp
Those results were as of 9/2015. Last 4-quarter return: -8.64%
The savior of Ariad is second-tier at best. I'm guessing that Icahn didn't make much of an effort to retain Denner.
Immune therapy advancing quickly.. CUREs baby's leukemia.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kind-designer-immune-cells-clear-180001528.html
Shire still eyes Baxalta..
http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/10/25/shire-will-press-takeover-bid-for-baxalta/8bgLHEMi5nhhsYIUBXmuNO/story.html
Does this mean that Baxalta still eyes Ariad?
Vid --
I guess I have taken a middle course. Sold half my shares, taking out all of my original investment.
Have re-deployed those assets in immunotherapy stock which is up substantially. (I do believe immunotherapy may make chemo-therapy irrelevant in a few years)
Holding the other half for the day when Denner faces reality and accepts $12-18.
We are 70% off historic highs. (not including ancient history)
Denner looks like a minor-leaguer.
No CEO.
Still this board is loaded with rationalizations for waiting yet another year... blah, blah.
If Denner thinks the company will be worth much, much more in a year, why can't he convince a prospective buyer to see the light?
Waiting has too many risks. My opinion.
Sorry, had to vent.
Perhaps not as good as it appears..
http://fortune.com/2015/10/05/biotech-tpp-trade-deal-drug-prices/
2da..
I'm disappointed that you did not take advantage of the absence of contrary voters to place Koko in nomination for the Board. I'm sure Koko's attendance record would be spotless.
More seriously, is there any legal proof that there actually was a quorum for this meeting? A creative lawyer could probably make the case that the absence of everyone who counts essentially nullifies this as a charade.
As you know, I did not attend after Kendra essentially told me not to waste my time. I salute you for your energy and anger.
I took the easier route and simply sold 50% of my shares.
I grow less sanguine each day that Denner will be able to close a sale. No doubt Ariad is Sarissa's tar baby.
Shire and Baxalta in bidding war for Ariad?
Too good to be true?
Too many moving parts for anyone to predict the next few days.
Short attack, bidding war, partnership. If you predict correctly, just luck. Of course also just my opinion.
For sure Ariad is for sale. For sure Denner is working this weekend.
$11
I believe most of us would be out with a profit, though not the size we were expecting.
For Denner probably a double, which in his industry is just a single.
Serious volume.
Any rumors?
"This is indeed a sprint and not a race now.."
A sprint is a race.
"Buy out by end of week."
I think I'm feeling Ill.
Oh wait... he didn't say which week he was talking about.
2da --
I had called Kendra and she basically told me that the meeting would be a waste of my time. So I didn't want to schlep to downtown Boston for that.
I'm very close to leaving Ariad completely.
mican
Harry..
Potential has been huge for many years. Meanwhile other biotechs are surging.
Potential also comes with risks.
Badly designed trials.
Poor management.
Drug failures.
Competitor drugs that leapfrog Ariad's.
About face by Denner.
...just to name a few.
We were all hoping for big news and we got small news.
Its deflating. Can't agree that "the market already loves this deal". Pre-market gain has backed off.
Maybe Denner just couldn't get his price. Maybe this strengthens his bargaining position. Likely sideways for a long time. No doubt some will be selling rather than waiting.
My opinion.
Jess -- What Denner are you talking about?
He runs a hedge fund. What he cares about is the next quarter. Most of us, and especially Denner, know that 2-3 years is dead money. And in the meantime, many will be selling shares because there are so many more productive opportunities now in biotech. I've sold half my Ariad position in the last year and that money has grown 50% while Ariad sits.
Just my opinion -- Denner wants a sale ASAP.
They are just conducting elections.
Ariad is not even making a presentation. To say you are disappointed is like saying you are disappointed in the dining habits of sharks.
All you had to do is call Kendra to find out that this meeting is just legal tidying up.
Hedge fund managers are similar to magicians.
They mis-direct your attention and then say "voila".
Denner is not an investor like you and I. He is a hedge fund manager. Speed, beta etc. are his tools and every quarter he is measured. Ariad is a big segment of his fund. He needs to keep the conga line moving.
Biotech is a seller's market at this time.
If capital is easy to raise, that encourages buyouts.
To view this situation as a reason for a seller to enhance its position by issuing more shares is to over-think things.
My opinion.
Thanks Jess.
Strange time for a news release, but I'll take it.
Bump tomorrow?
This discussion is irrelevant.
Denner is selling the three drugs(Iclusig, Brigatinib and 788).
A buyer might be persuaded to sweeten the offer by perhaps another dollar for Ariad's petrie dishes.. but in terms of a buyout only those three matter.
My opinion.
Yeah Dog, the best part of this deal is that Paladin comes with its very own theme song.