Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Based on today's volume and increased share price investors are no doubt relying on today's PR to make purchases.
I don't recall ever seeing a PR to announce that a data PR will be issued soon. How else to take it except as positive? It would just be weird to promote a bad report.
If the data is weak or negative I would think there would be legal liability.
The wording is vague. Sales? Who knows?
"the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has cleared the emergency use of its therapy to treat acute radiation exposure in a nuclear event.
Pluristem said it will start preparations to keep an emergency stock of PLX-R18 on hand for use in such events.
Full approval of the drug will depend on the results of a Phase III clinical trial. Pluristem said on Monday it is in discussions with the FDA and several U.S. agencies to clear the path for such a large final-stage study."
In the event of an "emergency" (meltdown, nuke attack?) sales would be obvious. But, perhaps regular sales will await data from Phase III.
Or, would governments have to create their own emergency stockpile to be able to react quickly?
Perhaps investors are just catching up with this report..
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144471-pluristem-hidden-treasures-sudden-catalysts
FDA --
Just curious. Why do you capitalize the first letter of every word? Do you understand that it detracts, fairly or unfairly, from your credibility?
Many thanks to all posters.
Been here a long, long while and frankly the price is higher than I would have expected although there was a time(before the drug was pulled) when I had dreams of a much higher price.
Sold over half along the way.
But, very, very happy to come away with a nice profit. A smart guy once told me that its never a bad thing to take a profit.
Best to all...
Micanwait
Vid -- Yes, but what if he thinks selling shares is the right thing to do for Sarissa? What about that fiduciary obligation?
Of course we don't give a damn about Sarissa investors, but at some point Denner may decide that his interest lies more with them than with us?
I don't see how you can get around the conflict issue.
If you are saying that Sarissa hasn't sold a share because Denner continues to think Ariad is a good investment, then yes Denner is acting legally.
However, if, in fact, Denner does not think the investment is good for Sarissa and he still has not sold any Sarissa shares, then certainly Sarissa investors have a right to think that a fiduciary obligation has been ignored; and that Denner has acted illegally.
One could even push the other way. Suppose Denner knows a buyout is coming for $50 and he refuses to allow Sarissa to buy more shares for fear of violating insider rules, what would Sarissa investors think about that.
Its hard to serve two masters.
Biotechrocks -- you ask, what happens if Denner and Sarissa leave?
Good question. What if Denner comes to believe that Sarissa's investment was a mistake? And it underlines my previous question which really no one has answered.
How is it that Denner can be CEO of Ariad and head of Sarissa without having a very severe conflict of interest?
Longx --
You are correct from the perspective of an Ariad shareholder.
However, don't Denner's hedge fund partners/investors have a right to expect Denner to maximize their accounts based on the information he has?
I believe Ariad forms a large percentage of Sarissa's holdings (20% ?). Suppose Denner sees bad news coming on a drug trial and expects Ariad to tank. How would you like to see your monthly Sarissa statement down 15% because Ariad bombed and Denner did nothing to avoid what he had to know was coming?
Conflict of interest question --
Can someone explain to me how it is ethical, or even legal, for Mr. Denner to simultaneously be the CEO of a public corporation and the head of a private hedge fund.
Does he not have fiduciary responsibilities to two different groups... Ariad shareholders and Sarissa investors?
As CEO, Denner, by definition, is in possession of inside information. Such information is binary.
If the information is positive --
Is he obliged to Sarissa investors to be buying shares ahead of the market?
Is he obliged to ARIA shareholders to prevent Sarissa from using the information to buy ahead of the market or to warn ARIA holders not to sell?
If the information is negative --
Is he obliged to Sarissa investors to be first through the door?
Is he obliged to ARIA shareholders to avoid massive Sarissa sales?
Please Mr. Denner.. be a salesman and sell this longterm disappointment.
Remember this?
Bellicum is making news with the "kill switch" technology which it purchased for $50 million from Ariad. Prior to the purchase, Ariad had licensed it for 10% of Bellicum. If Ariad had not elected to sell the molecule, it would still have 10% of Bellicum. Bellicum market cap today is $510 million.
Of course, Ariad needed the cash at the time and who knows how far Bellicum can advance in immunotherapy.
Here is the current Bellicum story..
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=17828&mn=14318&pt=msg&mid=16610873
Just curious -- How does investment news and data end up on a web site devoted to baseball?
A few thoughts on Denner.
He has played a huge role in bringing Ariad back to the land of the living.
His primary obligation is to Sarissa. That is where his fortune and his long term reputation will rest.
The best interest of Sarissa and Ariad mostly coincide... but not always. Of course a higher Ariad price benefits both, but it is not that simple. Sometimes a conflict may occur. For example, the timing and size of a buyout. A quicker deal may be of more/less benefit to Ariad shareholders and more/less to Sarissa... depending on information that only insiders know.
Another example. Hearings. Despite Ariad making a good case, Warren and others in Congress will pile on. Why should Bernie get all the attention? Is there any more sympathetic figure then a suffering cancer victim having to deal with medical expenses? No matter what the outcome, Ariad will suffer. The hearings will not only make Ariad the bad guy but also increase the investment uncertainty.
But Denner may not suffer. He can appear and really get national exposure for his personality and leadership. Just what the head of every hedge fund lives for. He can join the big boys table.
When your CEO also leads and investment fund, you take your chances.
Vid --
"So one tweet will determine future health care policy?"
I did not say that. All I'm saying is the tweet suggests that Clinton surely has an agenda and it is likely a single payer agenda.
I'm not in favor of the government getting its sticky fingers into the industry, but she may be. If so, the uncertainty about drug pricing will linger for a very long time. As the adage goes, "the market hates uncertainty".
The "unknown unknowns" are why Ariad should be sold ASAP.
U.S. health policy is a mess and costs are out of control. For the next administration one easy and politically popular answer will be government price controls.
I'm not saying this will happen but it is definitely a possibility considering that tweet.
2da --- I like your style. Let's storm the castle.
Just hoping a big pharma has some spare change weighing them down and will make an unfriendly bid. Let's see what side Denner is on.
Not sure the old socialist fool's charge will be short-lived.
Fairly sure that ARIA needs to get sold. Sooner is better than later.
Will Hillary demagogue the price?
AF is a shill for the shorts, but if she gets elected, look out.
Investors don't like uncertainty.
As predictable as the sun rising, AF does his job again.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13836613/1/biotech-stock-mailbag-dynavax-puma-ariad.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Chemotherapy will, more and more, be replaced and/or enhanced by immunotherapy. Here is an example of what may be coming for leukemia --
http://www.nature.com/leu/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/leu2016180a.html
A sale of Ariad sooner may be preferable to later.
CVS will no longer distribute the Novartis drugs Gleevec and Tasigna. Going to "biosimilars".
http://www.wsj.com/articles/cvs-drops-coverage-of-2-branded-biotech-drugs-in-favor-of-copies-1470176277
I have mentioned several times that Denner has a possible conflict of interest. Of course buying low for Sarissa on inside information is disgusting, but, as Meyer Lansky said in The Godfather, "this is the business we chose".
Good luck 2da.
I suspect b/o news is pending. My guess, as it has been for some time, about $15.
$50 million blunder?
Car-T is the hot-hot oncology subject. Juno's efforts just killed a few patients so FDA caused them to halt.
Some immunotherapy companies anticipated the SAs and have taken the time to add a technology that either stops or mutes the therapy until the SAs have calmed down.
One of those companies is BLCM. Their gadget is a chemical induction of dimerization (CID) thingy that they purchased from Dr. Berger of Ariad infamy for $50 million.
If BLCM's technology is the thing that unleashes immunotherapy, the CID may well prove to be worth more like $5 billion. At one time ARIA had owned 10% of BLCM which it basically sold for $50 million.
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/07/08/car-t-stocks-time-to-panic.aspx
"Then, Ariad is a much simpler, higher valuation as a primarily lung cancer biotech with a very promising drug coming on market, going 1st line, with a solid pipeline behind it."
This seems so obvious to me. It begs the question... is Denner just dumb (doubtful) or is there some conflict of interest here regarding the performance of his fund?
He's obviously in no mood to wait a period of years for a better buyout.
B/O blah, blah...
Yee’s “base case” is $10 a share, a 38 percent increase from current trading levels and implying an overall price tag of $1.9 million. But he also gives a “bull case” scenario of $12 a share ($2.3 billion) and an “uber-bull” case of $15 a share which would a $2.9 billion deal — more than double its current value
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/bioflash/2016/06/five-companies-that-could-buy-ariad-this-yearfor.html?ana=yahoo
Greg..
Its silly. Ariad had a useful drug for immunotherapy and they sold it to Bellicum. $50mil-- which is not peanuts, but I believe they had 10% of BLCM at one time.
This long term plan is just whistling past the graveyard. They seem to have a drug with real value. Denner knows what he has and the rest in just posturing.
He should monetize now and move on. Going long is very risky. Not just the usual biotech risks of bad management, bad trial designs, bad side effects etc.
Perhaps the bigger risk is the looming deflationary recession which could last many years and sink a lot of boats.
If you are a patient this is the only stat that counts..
"Overall survival at four years is estimated to be 77 percent."
What do you mean lately? He has only been here five minutes.
Did AF hire a pr firm?
https://www.statnews.com/2016/05/02/adam-feuerstein-biotech/
A well-written and hopeful piece on Iclusig.
The assumption that Ariad will be able to hold its price in Japan may be faulty. Their national health system is very efficient and very demanding of suppliers.
Just my opinion. I have really no idea how it may play out.
"ARIAD expects to complete patient enrollment in the ALTA 1L trial in 2018."
So now would be a good time to take a nap. Set your alarm clock for 2018.
Stylin'
PP just bought a home in Brookline, Ma for $4.4million.
Guess he plans to be around for a while... just saying.
Sound familiar?
SEC charges biotech Aveo with misleading investors
https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-59.html
"We allege that AVEO and its executives hid from investors the reality of their communications with the FDA on Tivozanib while suggesting they had identified a simpler route to FDA approval."
"The SEC alleges that AVEO Pharmaceuticals Inc. concealed the FDA's level of concern about Tivozanib in public statements to investors by omitting the critical fact that FDA staff recommended a second clinical trial to address their concerns about patient death rates during the first clinical trial."
Perhaps not exactly the identical history as Ariad but it did get my attention.
2da?
Jess --
8 is the new 10. Sorry, its called dilution.
Will and retail shareholder miss Ed Fitzgerald?
Those, like Flex, relying on Denner are holding a thin reed. My opinion.. if there were a buyer anywhere near $10 he would have sold.
2da's anaylsis of company value is well-researched and certainly far more persuasive than the magical thinking that relies on Denner's "reputation".
During the past two years I have sold 2/3 of my position. I made a modest profit but only because I've had this dog for so long.
When management and BODs were no-shows at the last annual meeting, the writing was on the wall.
Flex advises everyone who is down on Ariad to sell. Its good advice and, frankly, I have no good excuse for holding my remaining shares. Nostalgia, I guess.
2da -- Denner has succeeded in only one thing.
He has lowered everyone's expectations. I'm guessing a large majority of shareholders would be very happy to get $8 b/o and get on with the rest of their lives.
We were praying for a savior and ended up with a second-tier fund manager. In my opinion, Denner has his own agenda and it only partially overlaps with ours.