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My takeaway is that the SEC did the filing.
"Does ARIAD have the evidence(s) beyond the shadow of a doubt?"
It would be civil case so the burden of proof is lower.. just preponderance of evidence.
Still it would be a huge cost of financial and human resources and the opposing lawyers could tie up our key personnel for weeks, perhaps months taking discovery. I doubt HB wants to add this project to his plate at a time when he is trying to ramp up pona sales, expand to new HQ, get approval for 113 and bring forward new molecules in addition to the day to day management of a now sizable company.
Lots of elbow room for Ariad labs..
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alexandria-real-estate-equities-inc-123000545.html
I doubt he missed it. He just doesn't talk about that part.
One of the reasons he plays this game is to lower the price and take advantage of the inevitable rebound. Over and over..
Note that Adam never claims that the comments are his.
He is just repeating what un-named shorts have said.
"Just doin my job, maam."
I can't imagine Ariad putting out a press release reminding people to look for this presentation of up-dated data if the news is bad.
Ponatinib for squamous cell lung and head and neck cancers --
http://www.cancer.gov/clinicaltrials/search/view?cdrid=744933&version=HealthProfessional&protocolsearchid=10298663
Apologies if this was posted before.
9/11 --
Both Dr. Berger and Dr. Clackson are presenting that day at separate conferences in NY and Boston. Share price rising as we approach that date. Probably just a coincidence.
About half a dozen law firms have already announced "investigations".
Arrogant management. Probably a good buy as the price may be forced higher.
I have confidence that Dr. B would never accept a low-ball bid.
Gleevec is Novartis' bestselling drug, generating revenue of $4.7 billion last year. Tasigna $1 billion.
Could be some epic discussions in the NVS executive lunch room.
HB, pour it on !!
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Here's a list of NVS revenues, by drug --
http://www.novartis.com/investors/financial-results/product-sales.shtml
Using the best drug first to avoid mutations has always seemed to me to be logical. Resistance by oncologists just is laziness (putting aside possible Novartis bribery etc).
"Onyx’s main attraction are its cancer drugs, two of which won approval last year. Its crown jewel is Kyprolis, a drug for multiple myeloma that was approved last July and which Onyx fully owns.
Several analysts expect sales of Kyprolis to reach $2 billion a year, providing tremendous impetus to Onyx’s growth. The company reported $362.2 million in revenue in 2012, mostly from proceeds of drugs it shares with Bayer."
Hmmm... two recent approvals, a drug full owned. Sound like Ariad soon?
Amgen to pay $10 billion for cancer pharma ONYX.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/08/24/amgen-said-to-be-near-a-deal-to-buy-onyx/?hp
If 113 is indeed effective against EFGR/T790 mutation, well, of course the drug will be hugely valued.
But also, imagine the excitement about the next candidate to exit the Ariad lab. With two drugs performing in large markets as designed the analysts will certainly have to give significant value the the third as well.
This is what I think about on a Sunday.
Greed is a negatively charged word. If you substitute a more neutral word, for instance -- "ambition" you see that the conversation is a bit silly.
Free markets exist, despite their flaws (for example, disinformation). The political struggles of the last few hundred years have shown free markets -- though obviously not perfect -- to be the most efficient way for a society to maximize economic goods and services and bring the greatest material advancement to its citizens.
We are fortunate to live in a time and place where we can enjoy such historically bountiful wealth... and, that includes the medical field. Ariad would probably not exist in a more controlled system that did not give full rein to the ambition of Dr. Berger and his crew and the the investors who support him.
One sure conclusion from this call--
There are many more analysts following Ariad than just a year or two ago. I take the increased coverage as a very positive indicator.
Brief but to the point. Thanks br.
Dr. Berger again underlines his refusal to partner with BP and now provides his reasoning. Its logical from both a business and medical perspective, imo.
Dr. B apparently needs a much bigger waiting room in which the execs from BP can be comfortable while they wait their turn to show him their offers.
Of course you are correct about the cost. However, I have seen estimates that AD will bankrupt the medical system by 2050 if no solution is found. I don't remember the exact figure but I think it was about $500B/year by then. No doubt early testing would be much less expensive.. or, simply give it to everyone over a certain age.
Thinking out loud. Since the dose of Iclusig would be quite small to have the desired affect on the brain, imagine if people took it repeatedly as a preventative the way people take baby aspirin to prevent heart attack.
I understand there are a lot of "ifs" there.
Mainstream media has picked up the story that cancer survivors who have had chemotherapy have a significantly lower risk of Alzheimers. They list the cancers in which this has been observed -- it includes leukemia.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/15/alzheimers-cancer-veterans/2517403/
http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/2013/07/15/cancer-and-chemotherapy-reduce-risk-alzheimer-boston-study-finds/awW1rb0npNdTmbhlHpxi8M/story.html
"Harvey would have to go through the process of re-branding the company.."
Or, he could partner the neurological application. With millions of potential patients, even a percentage of the ultimate revenues would be huge.
Rum -- I have heard that the Board could reinstate the poison pill at any time it is needed.
Well everyone is feeling better.
I can't wait for the next drug candidate to be announced. They have held back in order not to tip their hand to the competition. (And perhaps because their plate is full.) There was a time when the biotech and investing worlds ignored Ariad.
Just a gut feeling.. the next molecule will make plenty of news.
$40 by January not out of the question. Biotech is hot, hot, hot.
Perhaps you are correct. But, who sells 100 shares in pre-market when there is no apparent significant news?
100 shares in pre-market drive price down 11 cents.
Could anything be more transparent? I hope Epic puts an end to all these games.
Does the last sentence indicate that the next molecule from the lab will be a variation of 113 specifically for EGFR?
Congrats..
To the Ariad team for achieving this European milestone.
To the holders of July '13 calls.
buyout, nah !!
Dr. B continues his mantra -- we're building and international oncology franchise. If he even hinted that he would consider an offer the stock would be up $10 in an instant.
Personally, I'm glad his public face is refusal. I'd rather our price be built over a period of a few years based on pipeline success and more lab production... then, the rumors can start.
A powerful argument for early use of ponatanib (which is not specifically mentioned)...
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/27/science/studying-tumors-differently-in-hopes-of-outsmarting-them.html
Thanks Cal.
My remarks were tongue-in-cheek, but that chart is certainly more encouraging than the 6-mo pps chart.
In the end it is the drug sales that will drive the share price up no matter how the stock chartists read the entrails from moment to moment.
I wonder what a chart of weekly iclusig prescriptions would look like?
There are roughly 2.4 billion shares of Novartis. Perhaps that is Dr. B's goal.
No, Ariad is still at its original HQ.
Was at the meeting this morning. Not much that was new. If you have listened to the last few conferences this was more or less a summary. An air of confidence as always.
A few takeaways of varying significance..
Iclusig finding more and more applications. In addition to their own trials, outside investigators are getting permission to examine the drug in various uses (this is non-exclusive permission so a particular use can not be tied up).
Epic trial has the potential to undo the black box.
Japan -- I always wondered why there has been such a big effort to move Iclusig into Japan where the market for its current use is relatively small (600 patient estimate). I think the answer is that they see Iclusig, and eventually, 113 addressing lung cancer which is an enormous problem throughout Asia because everyone smokes.
Genetic characterization -- More and more cancer centers are able to identify the exact genetic nature of a particular cancer which of course can benefit Aria as it recognizes which mutations Ariad's drugs can handle.
113 -- Lots of data coming in the next six months and plenty of excitement about what it will show. The ability to deal with brain mets is the thing that will really set 113 apart.
Markets for 113 actually much larger than for Iclusig.
Dr. Clackson not there. Too bad.. he always brings his A game.
2da was there and very busy getting all your questions answered. I'm sure he will be posting before long.
As I was walking away I could not help but notice that the adjacent building is Novartis. The Novartis structure is huge and growing and Ariad is literally in its shadow. Maybe not for long.
Some days it feels as though we on this board must be living in some alternate universe.
The CEO just about screams that we have two dominant drugs (of course we all agree) and the market just yawns.
Harvey is starting to sound a little like Dirty Harry (though he will never look like him).
Of mice and men and cancer.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/health/in-a-hospital-for-mice-hope-for-men.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Perhaps some clinical techniques to better define which cancer will respond to which drug.