watching and buying weakness
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
[Reference ... posted this last summer 2016 ... a lot has changed since then ... at least 3 more contracts have been signed for example]
VTGDF pps projection: $0.285 ... Food for thought:
+17milly, accounts receivable
-25milly, 5.5% unsecured convertible note due 2043
-71milly, F3 capital unsecured F3 capital lawsuit
+168.34milly, enterprise value: 13.1% of VDI worth (as of June 17, 2016) $1,285milly
Equals $89.34milly
Which is $136.37 per VDI share (5mil AS)
Which is $0.285 per VTGDF share (313mil AS)
Assumptions: Ignored any interest owing VTGDF, ignored new drilling contracts that increase revs, ignored $1,000,000,000 Petrobas lawnsuit over illegal killing of drilling contract, assumed Mr Su wins $71mil free and clear, assumed unsecured note gets fully converted to shares, no stapled notes are converted to common shares, no legal fees owing,...
...Hi SC777...here is a Dec 1 2015 legal SEC filing, the initial restructuring agreement, ...what you wanted is in Exhibit A...follows the first 25 pages of info...all the secured debts were converted to Stapled securities and other instruments...only the unsecured are relative to VTGDF...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419428/000119312515393377/d55619dex101.htm
Unsecured
7.875% Convertible Notes Claims: consisting of Nineteen Thousand Dollars ($19,000) in unpaid principal, plus interest, fees and other expenses, arising under or in connection with the 7.875% Senior Convertible Notes due 2042 or that certain Indenture and First Supplemental Indenture, each dated as of August 21, 2012, by and among Vantage Parent, as issuer, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as indenture trustee, as amended, modified, or otherwise supplemented from time to time prior to the date hereof (the “7.875% Convertible Notes” and the respective holders, the “7.875% Convertible Noteholders”);
5.5% Convertible Notes Claims: consisting of Twenty-Four Million Nine Hundred Seventy-Three Thousand Dollars ($24,973,000) in unpaid principal, plus interest, fees and other expenses, arising under or in connection with the 5.5% Convertible Senior Notes due 2043 or that certain Indenture and First Supplemental Indenture, each dated as of July 16, 2013, by and among Vantage Parent, as issuer, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as indenture trustee, as amended, modified, or otherwise supplemented from time to time prior to the date hereof (the “5.5% Convertible Notes” and the respective holders, the “5.5% Convertible Noteholders”). The 7.875% Convertible Notes and the 5.5% Convertible Notes are referred to together as the “Convertible Notes” and 7.875% Convertible Noteholders and the 5.5% Convertible Noteholders are referred to together as the “Convertible Noteholders”;
F3 Capital Note Claim: consisting of Seventy Million Seven Hundred Thirty-Two Thousand Seven Hundred Twenty-Eight Dollars ($70,732,728) in unpaid principal and payable balance, plus interest, fees and other expenses, arising under or in connection with that certain Promissory Note, dated July 30, 2010, by and between Vantage Parent, as borrower, and F3 Capital, as lender. Vantage Parent disputes its liability with respect to the F3 Capital Note Claim;
Vantage Parent General Unsecured Claims: consisting of any claim against Vantage Parent that is neither secured nor entitled to priority under the applicable law governing such claim, including, without limitation, the 7.875% Convertible Notes Claims, the 5.5% Convertible Notes Claims, the F3 Capital Note Claim, any litigation claims against Vantage Parent, and any unsecured portion of the Secured Term Loan Claims and Secured Notes Claims against Vantage Parent; and
Vantage Debtor General Unsecured Claims: consisting of any claim against a Vantage Debtor that is neither secured nor entitled to priority under the Bankruptcy Code or any order of the Bankruptcy Court.
...to my knowledge, VTGDF's promissory note (which collected 10% interest annually) was converted to VDI shares and is secured by the equity assets VTGDF aka Vantage Parent sold to OGIL aka VDI...to my knowledge VTGDF only has unsecured liabilities aka unsecured liens now against it now...some of which are currently before the courts...
Hope this helps!
This SEC link should help your due dilly...
[p93, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380565/000119312516623667/d207238ds1.htm#tx207238_12, accessed july 19 2016]...the top hedge funds have increased their holdings...
Another consideration: The sector Vantage drilling is in has risen in pps of late...VTGDF's competitors are RIG, ATW and DO...check these tickers...I think all up within the last month or so...
Further, there is a billion dollar lawsuit that could settle in Vnatage's favor...there are other catalysts...keep digging...when ready, pull the trigger for at least trading shares...I think VTGDF and VDI is a (currently) relatively hidden anomaly / opportunity...
Yes...profitable math for us longs...keep in mind $1.285b valuation was calculated in June 2016...before recent new contracts materialized...
Jan 6, 2017 buys to sells ratio at noon today = 1.1 million shares bot to 0.1 million shares sold...volume before price...bot again today...raising up selling prices of my trading shares to low 4's and low 5's...VTGDF is unique.
re "improve my technical trading. Any tips on how to do so?"
Look for the price per share to cross over the 3 day SMA. Then look for the 3 day SMA to cross over the 5 day SMA. Then look for the price and the 5 day SMA to cross over the 8 day SMA. When the price crosses over the 8 day SMA my buy signal begins to cue me...
Also, I have had good results using the CCI (5 day) rather than the RSI...my buy signal begins to cue me when the CCI is moving up from below -100 towards the 0 line.
Further, together with the above, I want the pps to be bouncing up from the bottom band of the BB(20,2,0)towards the bottom band of the BB(20,1,0) and moving up towards the 20 day SMA...
There are more factors to consider, but this should kick off a research study for you...all the above are fluidly flexible, but I have had very profitable results from technical analysis...because it frames the current price action relative to expected boundaries. Also, price tends to revert to the mean.
Good trading ahead...don't hesitate to ask questions...
:,)...I both marry the stock (hold a core) and date the stock (trade a % of the shares)...luv vtgdf...can win either way...good trades ahead! Welcome backs stock momo...playing the supercomputers...gl
I build them...here are examples of my screens using WPCS as an example:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111957279
(Sorry I did not reply sooner...traveling...good trades to you :,)...remember to give something back...you are as good as your last trade...the most important trade is the one you are making...)
lol...we have debated before...since you have no new information to dent my VTGDF thesis, I challenge you to dig up info that weakens my the thesis that many billionnaires and hedge funds are risking capital on...btw...did you know that the courts have 15 million shares of VTGDF that they received from Mr Su and the lawyers are not selling? btw...did you know that Mr Su received back from the courts another 15 million shares of VTGDF late fall 2016 and he did not sell them?...I challenge you to dig through some non SEC legal filings and inform yourself with these developments...I trust legal non SEC filings and legal SEC filings...I strongly suggest you buy some shares of VTGDF to hedge yourself in case your thesis is not as correct as opined...you are a bright guy...
...agreed...using strong technicals for short term trading...near term pps targets : 3.13 cents and then 3.76 cents...raise asks...and hit bids...bot another 100K today...gl
I trust legal SEC filings...lol...btw...Vantage has removed their lack of affiliation with VTGDF on their website...http://vantagedrilling.com/ sexy updated website...Vantage and major shareholder(s) know what they are doing...oil prices rising...Trump bullish on US oil interests...this is built for survival and profit...up we are going...catalysts ahead...we are up over 1000% in 12 months on VTGDF stock...hedge your position(s)...Happy New Year seven-up...my price target 12 months out is a minimum gain of 1000% from here...what is your VTGDF PPS target for Dec 31, 2017?
Technicals point to upswing in pps....trade well...hold patiently...q4 2016 should look great!...dont want a buyout...too much upside here...
Welcome Paul!...big profits here...buy out at what price?...lol...i prefer we stay public for as long as possible...Blackrock does know about us...they are in with several milly shares...as are other hedges you may know about...gl
Do u have both trading shares and core shares?....sell rips buy dips...hold for gold...i think most.of us holders and.traders are experiencing 14 baggers...super returns!!...gl
Re: Unsold shares kicking in...
VTGDF PPS targets considering all those already (and ongoing?) CANCELLED (UNSOLD) SHARES…
How many VTGDF shares remain in circulation? Which of the following OS counts are most probable? It makes a large difference regarding VTGDF PPS price targets…Food for thought:
Consider for VTGDF:
+17milly, accounts receivable
-25milly, 5.5% unsecured convertible note due 2043
-71milly, F3 capital unsecured F3 capital lawsuit
+168.34milly, enterprise value:13.1% of VDI worth (as of June 17, 2016) $1,285milly
Equals $89.34milly
Which is $136.37 per VDI share (5mil OS)
Which is $0.285 per VTGDF share (313mil OS) …all shares remain in circulation if none unsold.
Which is $0.317 per VTGDF share (281.7mil OS)…if 10 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $0.357 per VTGDF share (250.4 mil OS)…if 20 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $0.407 per VTGDF share (219.1mil OS)…if 30 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $0.476 per VTGDF share (187.8mil OS)…if 40 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $0.571 per VTGDF share (156.5mil OS)…if 50 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $0.714 per VTGDF share (125.2mil OS)…if 60 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $0.95.1 per VTGDF share (93.9 mil OS)…if 70 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $1.43 per VTGDF share (62.6 mil OS)…if 80 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $2.85 per VTGDF share (31.3mil OS)…if 90 percent unsold removed from calculation
Which is $5.69 per VTGDF share (15.7 mil OS)…if 95 percent unsold removed from calculation
An example of the filings that deregistered unsold shares:
“This Post-Effective Amendment No. 1 to the Form S-3 Registration Statement (Registration No. 333-171249) (the “Registration Statement”) of Vantage Drilling Company (“Company”) that was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission on January 19, 2011, is being filed to deregister all of the ordinary shares that remain unsold by the selling shareholders under the Registration Statement. Pursuant to the Registration Statement, 150,320,629 of the Company’s ordinary shares, par value $0.001, to be sold by the selling shareholders were registered.”
March 24 2016 VTGDF SEC filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419428/000119312516516749/d139920dposam.htm, accessed Aug 17 2016
…it would be advantageous to owners of VTGDF shares if very few VTGDF shares remained in circulation…imho…
Sure...Impatient buyers tend to hit the ask...but chasing stock prices have, in general, a lower probability of success...so if one tangentially hits the bid...meaning, in this context, submit a bid to buy slightly above the displayed bid, then your bid gets filled first by an impatient seller...and interestingly, your buy looks like a sell...lol...hope that helps...
Welcome and good luck...the computers do not sell us cheap shares anymore...hitting the bid today causes banking of coin later...
Volume and thus $ value traded rising...smaller percentage shorted...still relatively quietly traded...still a diamond in the rough...I trust you are holding core bags of gold...I am adding on all dips...this will run hard...look at DRYS...suggest selling percentage of core on 4th/5th day of rapid increases...lets see how high the supercomputers run this...gl
Computers hungry for shares....yum yum...munching up...move sells higher...gl
Lotsa buying today...volume before price...GL
Lol...do some due dilly....gl
Take care...be careful who you trust...VTGDF is unique.
LOL...as VDI rises in value, so VDC rises in value......gl
Shares Owned by VDC
VDC, on account of the conversion of the VDC Note in connection with the Emergence, currently owns approximately 13% of our outstanding Ordinary Shares. Although pursuant to the terms of the Plan of Reorganization, VDC has the right to require us to file a registration statement in respect of such Ordinary Shares, VDC has not exercised such right.
We expect that in connection with VDC’s ongoing official liquidation proceedings in the Cayman Island, the Ordinary Shares owned by VDC will be distributed to VDC’s creditors, although no certainty can be given as to the ultimate amount of Ordinary Shares to be distributed, if any, or the method or timing of any such distribution. In addition, VDC may choose to sell such Ordinary Shares and distribute the proceeds thereof instead of effectuating a distribution of the Ordinary Shares.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380565/000119312516623667/d207238ds1.htm page 96 Accessed Nov 20 2016
Item 15. Recent Sales of Unregistered Securities
In connection with the emergence of Offshore Group Investment Limited and certain of its domestic subsidiaries from Chapter 11, on February 10, 2016, we issued 4,344,959 units of Stapled Securities, $76.1 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Secured Notes and 655,094 Ordinary Shares pursuant to the Plan of Reorganization in transactions exempt from registration under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act or Section 1145(a)(1) of the Bankruptcy Code.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380565/000119312516759965/d207238ds1a.htm accessed Nov 19 2016
VDC Note. Effective with the Company’s emergence from bankruptcy, VDC’s former equity interest in the Company was cancelled. Immediately following that event, the VDC Note was converted into 655,094 Ordinary Shares in accordance with the terms thereof, in satisfaction of the obligation thereunder, which, including accrued interest, totaled approximately $62.0 million as of such date.
The Plan of Reorganization allowed the Company to maintain all operating assets and agreements. All trade payables, credits, wages and other related obligations were unimpaired by the Plan of Reorganization.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380565/000119312516623667/d207238ds1.htm pg 64 accessed Nov 20 2016
In the ongoing arbitration proceeding, the parties have exchanged initial pleadings and have confirmed an arbitral tribunal. Vantage has asserted claims against PAI and PVIS for declaratory relief and monetary damages based on breach of contract. Vantage has also asserted a claim against Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (“PBP”) to enforce a guaranty provided by PBP. The Petrobras entities (PVIS, PAI, and PBP) have asserted that the Drilling Contract is void as illegally procured, that PVIS and PBP are not proper parties to the arbitration, and that PAI and PVIS properly terminated the contract. PAI has further counterclaimed for attorneys’ fees and costs alleging that Vantage failed to negotiate in good faith before commencing arbitration proceedings. Vantage denies that any of the claims or defenses asserted by the Petrobras entities have merit and intends to vigorously pursue its claims in the arbitration proceeding.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380565/000119312516623667/d207238ds1.htm page 72 When will the $1 Billion lawsuit be resolved? In Vantage Drilling's favor?
Heaviest volume last 4 days combined relative to any 4 day period since Oct 18... ~ 2.1 million shares traded last 4 days...gl
http://otcshortreport.com/?index=VTGDF&action=view, accessed Nov 18 2016
Vantage Drilling International is an offshore drilling contractor that operates and manages a fleet of modern, high specification drilling rigs on a worldwide basis. Our owned and managed fleet currently consists of three DSME Ultra Deepwater Drillships, construction management contracts for two DSME Ultra Deepwater Drillships, and four BMC 375 Jackups.
Since our inception in 2007 we have forged a very experienced and dynamic team of personnel from across the globe to support our worldwide drilling operations. The Vantage Drilling team has delivered on the Safety, Operational and Drilling performance which has Exceeded the Expectations of our customers.
http://vantagedrilling.com/ , accessed Nov 18 2016
Mr. Kevin Michael Ulrich co-founded Anchorage Capital Group, bot more shares the last couple of weeks...now up to 23.29%....https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380565/000119312516759179/d207238ds1a.htm page 89
Hopefully everyone sells...then only a few shareholders will be caught holding this worthwhile stock...hopefully all the hedge funds and the billionaires will sell their recently increased holdings in Vantage...bidding at $0.0091...gl
The new shares partially reveal how VDI calculated its discounted to today enterprise value...in short the debt's interest payable is an asset if company sold...again positive development...
Via a cursory glance at yesterday's S-1/A filing...some major news items...all of which I like...(,:
1. Revs are contracted to almost triple to ~$150 million in 2017 relative to 2016. [pg 49]
2. Every major 5% holder of the staple securities have increased their holdings...the smart money has bot more shares since June 10 2016...[pg 89]
3. Anchorage Funds have doubled their holdings over the course of the summer of 2016..they now own over 20% of Vantage Drilling...Major news...[pg 89]
4. Filing reiterated vdi reorganizational value of $1.285 billion of which VDC owns on a fully diluted basis, $90.1 million. [pg F-10]
5. Many pages of the filing mention VDC and the shares VDC owns...it is easy to keep track of our VDC money in these SEC "bank statements"
...I am looking forward to the Q3 and Q4 cc, q/q revs, q/q net income,...numbers will likely be very good...
sssshhhhh...we want more shares to be sold and cancelled...gl
get your buy? if not, bid little higher than current bid...when computers tap price down after others buy, they may fill your slightly higher bid a little bit at a time...
Sept 23 2016 personnel change news: Appointment of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
Resignation of Douglas G. Smith as Chief Financial Officer. On September 21, 2016, Douglas G. Smith stepped down from his position as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and his employment with the Company was terminated.
Appointment of Thomas Cimino as Chief Financial Officer. On September 22, 2016, the Company appointed Thomas Cimino as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer.
Prior to joining the Company, from 2012 until most recently, Mr. Cimino, age 48, served as Chief Financial Officer at AEI Services, LLC, a company focused on power generation and distribution, natural gas transportation and services and gas distribution in the U.S. From 2007 until 2012, he served as Vice President and Controller at AEI Services.
Prior to joining AEI Services, LLC, from 2003 until 2007, Mr. Cimino served as Director - Global Capital Markets Group at Pricewaterhouse Coopers, where he provided capital markets advisory services to multi-national companies in the energy sector. His career has also included time at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, Adidas America and KPMG, where he began his career.
Mr. Cimino received his Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting from The Pennsylvania State University and his Executive MBA from Rice University.
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1465872/000119312516718474/d263146d8k.htm]
Why is this share rising 49%?....random walk of the market?...
Can u share your calculation? A simplistic example: (13% times $1.285284 billion equity equals) $168,372,204 equity divided by 311 million shares equals $___ pps.
Your Sept 2 buys are showing a nice profit! Congrats again...add your insights to our conversations...include due diligence links and your investing experiences...how much better is VTGDF than HERO for ex...let us know any weaknesses in the VTGDF thesis...the group watch can research...the more perspectives the better: Young versus old, rich versus poor, male versus female, urban versus country, engineering versus sales, techie versus touchy, Muslim versus Christian, straight versus gay, government backed bonds versus free enterprise stocks, etc.
VTGDF 0.0115 X 0.016 ... the cure for low prices is low prices...Market makers are making buyers pay 40% premium on the bid-ask spread...corollary: bid $11.50 and ask $16.00...what a jump!...thus no cheap shares on the ask...High frequency computer market makers are not eager to sell shares...this is going higher...patiently bidding 0.0115 to add more VTGDF to my collection...waiting for an impatient retail seller...gl
Correct...90 days past S1 June filing the VDI shares can be traded without BoD delays...and the stapled securities can be bot and sold...keep an eye on hedge fund reporting going forward...the big boys like to buy and sell and bank coin...gl
VTGDF 0.0115 X 0.013
VDC owns 13% of VDI ... correct
VDC currently have no (secured) liabilities because of the restructuring! ... correct