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Yes, that does look like what was happening yesterday. It looked like the buyer always had priority over other buyers and the seller was feeding this buyer(s) 500 shares throughout the day. Perhaps price control move? I don't think it was insider trading or even someone wanting to get rid of a position ... the trades were like clockwork... every two minutes or so, another 500 shares. Then all of a sudden, a larger block would move, but not between Pershing and Anon. The larger block was different seller and buyer. Very strange. It's almost like Pershing was controlling the price but when a "normal" shareholder would "blink" (and sell their shares), then all of a sudden these two (pershing and anon or RBC) would step out of the way and let the transaction go through. The Pershing account holder could very well be the same person as anon and the RBC account holder. Maybe not but in any case it was certainly a coordinated effort yesterday.
SOP.
The rumor is the week of the 16th, maybe the week after that though ...
I was watching that too. Pershing selling like clockwork. Every few minutes, another 500 shares. Level 2 was showing something different though. Looked like anonymous was able to get in front of the bidders to snap up those 500 share lots. Very unusual indeed.
Opinions on this little trade made at 15:59:59 yesterday at the close to bring the closing price down half a cent instead of it closing up half a cent? A one lot trade (500 shares) made at the LAST SECOND??? Would you call it someone "dumping" or manipulation?
02/03/2015 3:59:59 PM EST W 0.30 500 0 TSX 007 079
Fertilizer Blending to Begin in a Month at Four Plants Nationwide in Ethiopia. Allana mentioned
Excerpt:
The national fertilizer blending program, that was launched by the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU)between the MoA and the ATA and Allana Potash Corp in 2013, has seen the first of the planned five plants in June 2014, which, together with the new ones, is expected to benefit 11 million farmers. It was built by a 1.2 million dollar grant from the USAID Feed the Future innovation, which has also given another four million dollars for improved inputs.
Source: http://addisfortune.net/articles/fertilizer-blending-to-begin-in-a-month-at-four-plants-nationwide/
If its a leak of bad news of some kind, I would expect another sell off and a plunge in share price today. Not happening. Yesterday's "dump" was most likely a scare tactic. Designed to induce a bit of panic selling and maybe to hit some stop losses. Gotta love the traders and penny stocks. So easy to manipulate.
Cheeky, it's a long road till we produce ANY SOP, we don't even have a PEA or a feasibility study yet. Let's talk again when all of these hurdles are passed. Then we can talk about if the share price will revisit the .20s again. Good luck.
Check. And mate.
Remember when I posted this on "another board"? That was on January 29th. It's not rocket science ...
Excerpt:
You'll see, they will maybe pound it down now to 28 or 29 cents ... and then it will rise back up a few cents and then back down. I would get worried about bad news being leaked if say the shares plunged a dime in one day on millions of shares traded. That would be worrisome. But these penny or two a day movements? I'm not worried about a thing. The fundamentals here are excelent. Yes there have been delays and some folks don't have patience and have sold and moved on. It's their choice, it's their money. I'm not telling anyone to buy or even hold, I'm telling everyone to look at the big picture. And be patient. Think about the future. Is Allana the real deal. What have they accomplished so far. What are the next steps. Those are the things to consider. Not these daily BS price movements.
The important question to ask yourself is, where will Allana be in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 5 years down the road. The big picture.
© 2015. All rights reserved.
Yeah, down a whole penny and a half. 4.76 %
ICL meeting agenda is here: http://repo.icl-group.com/Lists/ReportsManagement/Immediate%20Reports/2015/Proxy%20and%20Voting%20Slip%20-%20January%2026,%202015.pdf
Looks like nothing special is being voted on.
Just want to elaborate on the Borgas comments. These are my opinions only.
Borgas is the CEO of ICL and has a vested interest to keep the share price of Allana as low as possible. The remark he made about the CAPEX being higher was in response to a question at an ICL meeting. Now maybe he was talking about a 1.5 to 2.0 million ton mine. That means he erred and should have specified that. If he was NOT talking about that and he was saying that the CAPEX is too low for a 1 million ton mine, than I have a serious problem with Borgas as he is a CEO and not an expert in the field of feasibility studies. ERCOSPLAN is a reputable company who specializes in such matters. I will take ERCOSPLAN's figures any day before Borgas' since as stated earlier, Borgas has a vested interest in keeping the share price low. Perhaps it was just a mistake on Borgas' part.
As to why ICL didn't issue a statement for the error, I would suspect that ego might have something to do with it. Borgas doesn't want to admit he said something wrong, so he doesn't publicly issue an "apology". It is also to his and ICL's advantage to sow a little fear and keep the share price depressed. It is certainly not up to Allana to issue a correction or apology on his behalf.
You have to think of motive, circumstances and inject some psychology into the situation. These are just my opinions.
You are welcome Ogi and I hope you don't think I am merely "pumping" Allana. I am a long time investor and have a considerable number of shares.
As far as your suspicion that ICL is playing games, as it is in ICL's best interest to have the share price of Allana as low as possible. Does ICL have anything to do with the currently depressed share price and more importantly the share price plunge that we experienced in Dec 2013 just when negotiations were going on regarding the partnership? I am not willing to share my opinions of such things on a public forum but we must all keep in mind who was to benefit the most from the depressed share price in Dec 2013.
On another note, you make an excellent point that the original feasibility study was done when MOP prices were much higher than they are today.
As for the CAPEX for SOP, we will get a better idea of that once the PEA comes out. But the CAPEX might be lower than you expect since, I believe, the SOP is very shallow, ~60 meters or so. Open pit might be a possibility but that is total speculation on my part.
Sorry if I misunderstood your post.
You are correct. You said "possible material comments" ... then I agree it would be an issue.
Quite frankly I am surprised they did not simply stream the meeting.
Twister, if that a regulation issue as you say, can you please provide a link that states it being a regulation issue?
Thanks.
Ogi, I will try to answer as many of your questions as I can, some answers will be my opinion and some will be based on what was said at the meeting and what due diligence I have done in the past. Your questions I will convert to italic and my answers will be be in bold. Some of my answers will be questions I have for you.
Ogi: Justin, correct, I didn't know that 30% decrease taking place. That worries me.
Justin: Why does this worry you? The way I look at this is that management 1) is responding to investors' concerns about their pay vs. the share price performance. 2) are lowering their cash burn rate just in case the financing gets delayed AGAIN (I certainly hope it will not) and 3) maybe they know or expect that within a few month's time the shares in Allana will be worth much more than they are now.
Ogi: Also I was not at the meeting because I do not live in Canada or USA and at moment Shanghai is city where I live. Also I am not coming from English talking area so excuse me that occasionally in my posts I can't use appropriate words to express feelings behind it but this time it looks like my feelings were described well.
Justin: Fair enough. I wouldn't expect someone living on the other side of the world to come attend the meeting. Since you did not attend, please contact me on that other site so that I can send you the recording of the meeting.
Ogi: Yes I am disappointed.
Justin: We are all disappointed. I AM DISAPPOINTED. But I am also patient. As I have stated before, building a mine takes time. Permitting, water, infrastructure and other documentation and work needs to be done. (see Afreximbank's requirements link below)
Ogi: Not have intentions to sell my shares but thinking to add more on present prices to average down.
Justin: I note here that you say you have no intention to sell and may buy more to average down.
Ogi: Honestly speaking afraid to do so due to recent developments,
Justin: What recent developments is making you afraid?
Ogi: due to Farhad has promised so much but not much has come.
Justin: Farhad has made “promises” as you call it, and they have mostly come to be true. Where Farhad erred is in the timelines of those “promises”. And I wouldn't exactly call them promises. Farhad has stated where he sees the company headed, his vision of Allana Potash being a producer of Potash in Africa. And just for the record, I don't remember Farhad ever “promising” anything. He has never “promised” X, Y or Z will happen. He has always said that Allana was working towards certain goals.
Ogi: What has happened with London listing for example?
Justin: I actually personally asked that question at the AGM. Farhad answered that the AIM listing is on hold due to the fact they have several things going on, and depending on how the funding works out they may decide to go on AIM again or even the LSE. This would be done once they are far along in the construction phase or even actually in production because UK based investors are much more familiar with Africa than North American investors and the ideal point is close to or the production point.
Ogi: Would like to let you know, I have master's in engineering and at moment one of engineering site leads for a multi billion project in China so very well aware what it means to suspend a FEED study.
Justin: OK, so you are an engineer. And you know what it means to suspend a FEED study. Now would it be smarter to suspend an ongoing FEED study on MOP and resume it once the PEA on SOP is published or would it be better to complete (and pay for) the FEED on MOP and then have to start all over with another FEED study for the SOP (and pay for that too)?
Ogi: Also to come with SOP part of project at this stage of MOP project is if nothing else unprofessional.
Justin: What do you mean “at this stage of MOP project”? We have not started building a mine, we don't even have financing signed yet.
Ogi: It implies that management was not aware of SOP possibilities till now??
Justin: Of course they were aware of the SOP possibilities. They have know about the Kainitite since they were in the drilling program years ago. And they know that they have a HUGE Kainitite deposit. Over 1.1 BILLION tons at ~19% which translates to a bit over 220 million tons of SOP. SOP is currently selling for ~700 a ton. Do the math.
Ogi: I doubt it but if that's the case we should sell our shares immediately.
Justin: It's not the case. Selling your shares is your decision. I would also note that previously you said you wanted to buy more shares in order to average down
Ogi: Think that SOP part is a spin that Farhad using for unknown reason to us. Hope it is not in order to buy patience.
Justin: The SOP is not just a “spin” in order to buy time. Allana's plan (if the PEA is positive) is to become the largest SOP producer in the world. They should be able to produce 2 to 3 million tons per year.
Ogi: What I believe is that infrastructure is not ready yet for a project,
Justin: The infrastructure is being put in place and will be ready (for the most part) by the time Allana will be rady to produce MOP. The government is awarding road building contacts in the next few months and there is a rail being built to service the Afar region.
(link to rail article : http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0V74Z920150128?irpc=932 )
Ogi:Ethiopian market is not ready yet for MOP or SOP,
Justin: First of all we have an offtake with ICL for 80% of our potash. Where they sell it is their business. But to answer your concern, Allana and ICL are actually developing programs to educate farmers and to market Potash in Ethiopia and by extension on the African continent.
Ogi: potash price is still in long term bear trend
Justin: Actually, it is no longer in a bear trend. The price of potash is rebounding, but not to where it was before the russian cartel fiasco. Also there is a mine in Russia that recently flooded and nay never come back online.
Ogi: supply exceeding demand
Justin: That is true for MOP, but as we have an offtake agreement, why should Allana care that much? SOP on the other hand is in tight supply. Demand is 6 million tons per year and is likely to increase (Source: www.academia.edu/4783324/Global_Sulfate_of_Potash_SOP_Fertilizer_Market_Trends_and_Opportunities_2013-2018_New_Report_by_Daedal_Research)
Ogi: and IMO not many institutions will agree to finance the project soon.
Justin: That is incorrect. But that is your opinion. I believe Afreximbank will be the major financier and we will get some financing from European banks as well. Farhad also mentioned that there will be some funds coming from royalty financing groups .Here is the reason for the delay in financing: the primary lender (Afreximbank) has certain eligibility requirements and documentation requirements. Below are just a few of the overall requirements for a loan. The other reason for the most recent delays is the fact that that the banks wanted more testing on the aquifer recharge rate and they wanted cavern optimization testing. This has pushed back financing for almost a year. The reason they wanted this extra testing (and this is just my opinion) is that ICL has been saying that they want to expand MOP production to 1.5 to 2.0 million tons per year. So if ICL wants to produce more MOP than what is in the feasibility study, it would be understandable that the lending banks would want certain tests to prove that the extra tonnage is actually feasible.
Sources:
Afreximbank gives green light to loan: http://www.thereporterethiopia.com/index.php/news-headlines/item/642-allana-receives-green-light-for-11-bln-birr-loan
Afreximbank requirements: http://afreximbank.com/programs-facilities/project-export-development/project-related-financing-programme/
Excerpt from Afreximbank requirements:
Eligibility requirements:
The Bank also operates certain procurement rules, key aspects of which include:
The procurement of Second Hand or Used Equipment is not encouraged;
Procurement procedure must be conducted in a manner that involves competitive bids and multiple quotes;
Cash disbursements are not made to parties other than suppliers;
Additional funding requirements are to be warehoused with Afreximbank or participating banks. Alternatively, project promoters should show evidence that arrangements to meet additional funding requirements are in place;
Down-payments must be supported with acceptable performance bonds from suppliers;
Raw material and critical input plan must be provided;
Promoters or their Managers to show evidence of considerable previous experience in developing and managing project type;
All corporate and Governmental approvals are to be in place; and
Suitable suppliers’ warranty must protect Bank and promoter against deviations of equipment from order.
The distinguishing feature is that the promoters must be experienced entities with good market knowledge and ability to successfully run the projects or where the promoters are not experienced, they will be required to enter into operating arrangements with reputable entities. Under this Programme, the Bank also provides Bridge Loans to projects in cases where delays occur in disbursement of funds from credible multilateral lenders or commercial banks but where all lending conditions had been met and security in place. This is intended to reduce the cost a delay in loan disbursement may add to the beneficiary project.
Documentation:
Appropriate Loan and Guarantee Agreements, Sales Contract, Assignment Deed, Project Contracts, Support Documents, Security Documents, and Expert Opinions, etc.
Ogi: All that is very favourable to ICL and not favourable to us. Knowing all what I have mention and buying shares a year ago sounds contradictory. I decided to buy once Farhad stated will go for financing (stated in final stage at that time) and construction in parallel with developing market in Ethiopia and once infrastructure finished Allana will be already ready for production.
Justin: I agree that the deal was favourable to ICL.
Ogi: Usually buying just before financing is best entry point. It was stated if remember well that construction will be completed mid 2016.
Justin: I agree with that also. Unfortunately financing has been delayed so I can see why investors are upset. Please remember your own advice: “Usually buying just before financing is best entry point”.
Ogi: One of the reasons to buy Allana shares was low cost of potash. Sounds strange but my logic behind was that only Allana can be profitable project with such low potash prices. Sometime less is more.
Justin: Agreed. Allana can be profitable with the MOP production alone. Allana can be VERY profitable with SOP production.
Ogi: To say one more time, IMO project is great but mngmnt not with the huge accent on Farhad. Every few months he announce bombastic news and than nothing happens.
Justin: Farhad is a very smart man. Don't underestimate him. I think what he did to sign an offtake with ICL for MOP only was smart considering how much the SOP is worth.
Ogi: Very unprofessional IMO. Also for me very unlogic how you as investor can cheer and support recent mngmnt moves.
Justin: The Allana story is not over by any means. It is just starting really. All the preparatory work has been done and now the fun starts. Will ICL bid for Allana? Will anyone else bid a higher price? Will Allana sell? I support management as I believe they will make the company successful.
Ogi: At the end what is your opinion regarding possible buyout by ICL? Would they possibly offer 0.7usd per share (close to 0.9 cad) or that price is to optimistic?
Justin: ICL will probably make a bid for Allana at some point. I do not like to make predictions. Right now, there are too many variables. I would much prefer that Allana does NOT get bought out and starts producing MOP and eventually SOP which will produce earnings. That is when Allana will be at full value.
Ogi: Also ICL stated that CAPEX will be considerably higher than originally planed, if I remember well and that they will stick with of take agreement only?
Justin: ICL has since apologized for making that statement. There is no public record of the apology, however this was stated by Richard Kelertas when an investor pointed out that ICL has said this statement. ICL made that statement based on the fact that they were looking a the mine producing 1.5 to 2.0 millions tons per year. The feasibility study was based om 1 million tons per year. Obvious a mine that was to produce 1.5 to 2 times as much potash as the feasibility study would require a higher CAPEX.
Ogi; Thanks in advance for comments
Justin: You are welcome.
Disclaimer: I am not an employee of Allana potash or ICL nor am I associated in any way with either company. I am not paid by anyone to promote Allana potash in any way. I am not paid to post anything on any message board. I am an investor in Allana potash and that is the totalling of my involvement.
PS. I STRONGLY suggest you contact me for a link to the recording of the AGM Many questions were asked and answered at the meeting and frankly I do not feel like transcribing the whole thing.
Ogi, Farhad said during the AGM that the FEED study was suspended as they are awaiting the PEA on SOP. Why continue with a FEED for the MOP only when they will have a good idea if the SOP is economic and then the FEED study can continue, taking the SOP situation into consideration. This is a money saving move. Did you know that Farhad and all the execs are taking a 30% pay decrease? I'll bet you didn't. You would have known that if you were at the AGM.
Ogi, you sound very impatient and seem to believe that everything is designed to delay the project. This is not the case. In fact, all these delays are there because the project is moving along and these things need to be done. Allana is one of the few projects in Ethiopia which has actually been doing all the necessary work to get to the point of building a mine. Where is Ethiopian Potash (FED) now? Gone. You said your investment horizon was 5 years. Please be patient and you will be rewarded. Someday you will thank me.
Auger, totally agree with you. Allana will have it's day and it will be sooner than the bashers think. ICL is having their AGM and "extraordinary" meeting on February 19th. Does anyone know what the agenda will be? It should be published by the end of this week at the latest. Shareholders need at least that much notice to mull over the agenda.
And you took the words right out of my mouth when you say patience is a virtue. I have said that time and again that we need to be patient with this one. Give management time, let them do what they have to do, sometimes they have to jump through a lot of hoops to get all their ducks lined up. It's the nature of the beast, even in developed countries such as Canada or US, these things take time. Now imagine the bureaucracy involved when you are in a developing country like Ethiopia.
Google small cap investment epicenter and once there, search for the Allana Potash board. A recording of the AGM is available for those who are interested. PM me there.
I think the news of the railway being built to the Afar region is VERY big news and important to Allana. It shows the government is dedicated to seeing the project succeed. After all, why would they spend all that money on a rail line to the desert. The only question is, will it be Allana potash producing or will they be bought out by another company by then.
Thank you for the kind words onestep. I have had two posts deleted now which mention the fact that I also post on another site. It looks like someone doesn't want that to be known. I have an audio recording of the AGM if anyone wants it. You can contact me on the "other" site (and it's not stoxichouse as I don't post there anymore), and I will be happy to send you the link to the recording.
OMG. Really. That was posted this morning. At 9:46 AM. Now you're saying I "modified" it? Ya, right.
Sorry bud, I can't be bothered with this anymore. Ridiculous
Stupid investors? Really.
Ogi, where do you get this stuff? You say none of my posts can be supported by facts? Really? Can you point out which posts you are refering to?
You say "In your every post, coming very often in regular intervals on various boards you are claiming receiving messages from bashers admitting you they are manipulating a price". Please provide a link to any and all posts where I claim to have received messages from bashers admitting this. I posted this morning that on another board, a trader has admitted that he is looking to trade for a one cent movement on Allana shares in order to profit (on 100,000 shares).
You say " in your eyes that is a great move claiming a large premium over SP". Again, where did you get that from? Please provide a link. In fact, I have posted several times that I am NOT happy about the deal with ICL regarding the price they paid per share.
You say "Also just to mention, any of your posts can not be supported by any facts but you are presenting it like a facts"
Where did I post non factual info? Did Allana not get a mining permit? Is that not a fact? Did allana not partner with ICL? Is that not a fact? Has Allana not met the milestones they have set out? Why are you putting words in my mouth. Please provide links to where I said all these things. Yes, I have posted my opinion but I try to base those opnions on logic and the known facts.
BTW, there have been a large number of articles posted on multiple site on the internet regarding Allana and what their achievments are. Are you suggesting they are all false / non factual? Please explain.
Ogi, I get that you are frustrated with the share price. I get that you are not happy with your investment. I get that you want answers. I get that you are disappointed. Many of us are. The only thing I was asking is that when you make a statement such as "management intentionally decreasing SP", I ask that you explain how they would do that. That is a rather inflamatory statement. It suggests dishonesty and frankly criminal activity. And when I asked you that question, you suddenly accuse me of being paid? For the record, I am NOT paid to promote, pump or anything of the kind. I am an investor who is looking for informantion, data and intelligent opinions on Allana. I have never told anyone to buy, sell or hold Allana, all I say is that everyone should do their own due diligence and look at the ENTIRE big picture regarding Allana. I happen to believe that Allan will do well in the longer term, and I base that belief on the facts as I know them to be true. I base that on the achieved milestones that Allana has achieved. I am as frustrated as anyone with the timelines being pushed out, but I also do not think that extending timelines will result in Allana not acheiving it's goal of building a mine, producing potash and generating earnings.
Also, can you plaese point me to one of my so called "sweet" posts? I have always tried to be balanced and have in fact warned investors to be careful/ cautious in anticipating what effect financing and the SOP PEA will have on the share price.
Thank you for that "intelligent" response. Unfortunately you failed to answer the question. I asked you how the management has intentionally decreased the share price.
Your words / post:Can somebody help me understand why in my opinion management intentionally decreasing SP to enable new institutional investors or ICL low SP for their investment.
I basically answered that same question on another board. You can read it here
Oh, so sorry. Silly me. Were you at the AGM?
You "knew all this a year ago"? How so? Did I miss something at last years meeting? Was the SOP PEA already announced then? Please explain how you knew about all these issues "a year ago". TIA.
Not for long.
- The PEA on SOP is due within a couple of weeks.
- The Aquifer recharge rates are also due within a couple of weeks.
- Financing is waiting on the results of the aquifer and cavern tests, which are also due within a couple of weeks.
- Once the DFIs and Exim banks have the DD results of these tests, financing will be approved.
- Mine construction will begin BEFORE all financing is received.
- ICL is very interested in the SOP. They are waiting for the PEA.
- The CAPEX will be reduced by 15% (the contingency amount for road construction) once the Ethiopian Gov't awards road constuction contracts.
- Cash burn rate going forward is 400K to 500K per month.
There is an audio recording of the entire AGM including the presentation and Q&A period. Contact me on Agoracom if you want a copy.
Muzikman, got your private message but cannot reply as I only have a "free" account here. Suggest you contact me on Agora.
For all you doubting Thomases out the there (wshaw14), as tank says, there is a recording of the AGM. I was at the AGM and I made that recording. Just so there would be no "doubt" of what was said. The Recording is quite clear (except for one of the questioners who was mumbling somewhat) and includes the presentation as well as the question and answer period. Farhad does indeed state that Allana is looking at up to 3 MTY of SOP and also states that he doesn't want to "flood" the market, so to speak. He also states that he does not believe the Price of SOP will stay as high as it is now. ICL's Yoram Cohen was also there (sitting just behind me) and stated that ICL was indeed very interested in the SOP. As for the water issue, may I remind everyone that there are actually two lakes near the mine site. One is about 25 KM and the other larger lake is about 100 KM away. So although the availability of water from the aquifer may be limited, if Allana is looking at producing up to 3 MTY of SOP, there is plenty of water availabvle (albeir at higher cost to build a pipeline).
Interesting. ICL Extraordinary General meeting set for February 26, 2015.
Link: Document
Anyone here going to the AGM?
You should have received it quite a while ago. Online voting deadline is Jan 16, 2015. Hmmm .... makes me wonder ....
Ertwo, As a shareholder, you should have received the details by now.
Do you not have your voting form with your control number? Hmmmm ... maybe you don't. Do you actually own any shares?
Anyways, here's the details:
NOTICE OF ANNUAL AND SPECIAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that an annual and special meeting (the “Meeting”) of the shareholders of Allana Potash Corp. (the "Corporation") will be held at The Sheraton Hotel, Rosedale Room, 123 Queen Street West, Toronto Ontario, M5H 2M9 on Tuesday the 20th day of January 2015 at 11:00 a.m. (Toronto time) for the following purposes:
1. to receive and consider the audited financial statements of the Corporation as at and for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2014, together with the report of the auditors thereon;
2. to elect directors of the Corporation for the ensuing year;
3. to appoint McGovern, Hurley Cunningham LLP as auditor of the Corporation and authorize the directors to fix their remuneration;
4. to approve a 10% Rolling Stock Option Plan, as more particularly described in the management information circular (the “Circular”) accompanying this Notice of Meeting; and
5. to transact such further or other business as may properly come before the Meeting or any postponement(s) or adjournment(s) thereof.
Excelent responses to the incessant bashing / fear mongering on another Allana bullboard site
1. what has Betty done...........retired name attached to Allana that cost shareholders dilution.
Response: Betty has a skill set that is unique and valued and knows the right people in the industry. Like I said great people are needed to make a great company. The fact that she retired from POT doesn't make her skills any less valuable. She continues to consult and is a leading expert and top woman executive.
2. Markets did not like the ICL deal....yet to see any reward from this gift they got for 25 million.
Response: The ICL deal was a turning point for Allana. The deal secured a potash major. No other potash junior has been able to do this. 100% offtake with 80% take or Pay is assurance for the financial institutions that the project will have cash flow in a tight MOP market. The market as you refer to is waiting for the further testing of the aquifer and large cavern testing to complete the financing requirements. After financing comes through I believe we will see significant investment by institutions and the market IMO.
3. as of yet, no construction permit in hand...AMEC needs to speed up process so Allana can get issued one by MOM.
Response: MOM will not delay the mine development IMO. Ethiopia needs the potash for revenue. With this much development and support by the Ethiopian government, I see this as a false objection. AMEC will come through in Q1 2015 as planned. Read the press release. Quote - "This work will be undertaken primarily by AMEC's Saskatoon office and is estimated to take approximately six months to complete."
www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2014/08/12/allana-potash-engages-amec-to-complete-front-end-engineering-and-design-studies#4QSw76eWeA0Jji3x.99
4. PEA only.....Yara PEA 1 billion.
Reponse: Yes PEA only, but much of the information has been shared by YARA according to Farhad. See timelines. Feasability Q1-2015-Q1-2016. MOP first then SOP. Will they spin off the SOP to the CHinese or another company or will ICL take the SOP due to the very high projected profit value?
5.How much more info needed through technical department to please lenders??? How much longer?
Response: According to Farhad at the technical update and the Financial Post update (See link) The two areas the financial institutions wanted to see was the water testing (recharge rate), and the large scale cavern testing. Note in the last update Farhad commented they started the SOP leaching study with well SW3.
business.financialpost.com/2014/12/04/allana-potash-developing-low-cost-potash-for-emerging-markets-in-africa/
6.Will they be able to secure financing by Q1 2015 or will this just get pushed to Q2 2015 like they have done in the past...........Also, will ICL commit more monies or will they walk away with no more financial obligations but an awesome off-take agreement for MOP in their hands..
Response: I see this as a clear fear post as we know clearly that the delay was due to the additional testing for the water and mine cavern. ICL's key operational staff have been working with Allana to optimize the mining process. The last update has been Q4-2014 to Q1-2015. It has not changed
This graph is exactly where Allana is going. Even the timeline is accurate. The discovery period started in 2009 ... so five years ago. Allana will be a prime example of how a junior miner's share price behaves, provided of course that we get financing and no major issues in construction or other economic disasters etc ...
Excellent synopsis and excellent post regarding the accomplishments for 2014.
There was a bid all of last week for ~500,000 shares at .305 which was changed to .325 yesterday. The someone today, out of the blue, decides to offer ~400,000 + shares at .325 ... rather suspicious trading IMHO.
A single trade between TD customer (selling) and RBC customer (buying)
12/30/2014 9:54 AM EST 0.325 307,000 -0.01 TSX 002 007