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well said...
buyout inquiries?! Nice!
1/24/13: MelaFind
MELA Sciences (MELA) is in the early stage of rolling out MelaFind, an FDA approved handheld optical scanning device for assisting dermatologists in identifying skin lesions that may be melanoma. The device is placed over a skin lesion and uses imaging technology in which light of 10 specific wavelengths is focused on the lesion and allows the three-dimensional visualization of the lesion up to depths of 2.5 mm below the skin's surface. Computer algorithms are then used to analyze the potential that the lesion is malignant. It does this by relating the image results to 10,000 archived images of both benign and malignant lesions. Results are then available in less than one minute right in the doctor's office.
In a clinical trial of 1,300 patients presenting with over 1,600 lesions, MelaFind detected 98% of melanomas, while missing fewer than 2% of these early cancers. A control group of dermatologists in another controlled study using conventional techniques misdiagnosed the presence of melanoma 28% of the time. MelaFind is intended to help the dermatologist confirm his diagnosis when he is equivocal and helps avoid unnecessary biopsies. It also holds the potential for detecting melanomas that have not been diagnosed.
My view is that this is a major new innovation for detecting melanoma early on before it has metatarsi so that it can be successfully treated before it becomes life threatening. The Cleveland Clinic agrees with this as it has named MelaFind as one of the top-10 medical innovations for 2013. If management executes in 2013 as I believe it can, I think that MELA Sciences can be a very interesting stock in 2013 and I will start building a position after this report has been disseminated. I think that it is inappropriate to have a position before I publish on a company.
MelaFind Launch Began in March 2012
MELA Sciences' stock has been the target of intense shorting over the last three years.
This started in 2010 when the FDA stated that the MelaFind PMA was not approvable even though it had received a favorable review by an FDA advisory committee. Subsequently, the FDA reversed its position and approval was gained in November of 2011. With the approval of MelaFind the enslavers switched their reason for shorting to the belief that the launch that began in March of 2012 is disappointing and signals limited commercial potential for MelaFind. The company counters that the shorts have a serious misunderstanding of the dynamics of the launch.
The company has a razor and razor blade sales model that starts with the installation of MelaFind in a physician's office at a cost to the physician of $10,000. Then each scan performed brings in $50 to MELA, which is taken out of what physicians charge private pay customers, i.e. somewhere between $100 and $300 per scan. The company has carefully planned and executed the launch and in doing so has paid minute attention to getting physicians and patients to be aware of and understand MelaFind as opposed to a "willy nilly" effort trying to install devices everywhere. This planned, carefully controlled launch has been misinterpreted by many investors as being disappointing.
By January 2013, the number of signed user agreements that are preparatory to device installations in the U.S. and Germany was about 100 with most having occurred in the last four months. The goal is to get to 275 by the end of March 2013. The company cites market research that it has conducted that suggests that the average dermatologist as he or she becomes skilled in its use might reasonably employ MelaFind once per hour. This suggests that an experienced dermatologist could use MelaFind eight times per day and assuming 50 weeks of practice each year; this could create 2,000 uses per year, which at a price of $50 per use translates into $100,000 of revenue per year for MELA Sciences.
The peak sales potential for each 100 device placements could be $10 million per year. Assuming the dermatologist charges $100+ per scan ($50 to MELA and $50+ for the dermatologist) he or she could make $100,000+ per year from MelaFind. Aside from the obvious medical benefit of catching some hard-to-diagnose melanomas before they have metastasized and become life threatening and the cosmetic benefits of avoiding scars from unnecessary biopsies, there is a powerful economic incentive for dermatologists to use this product.
A way of looking at the addressable market in the U.S. is to consider that there are 37 million visits to U.S. dermatologists each year for medical reasons. Of these, market research conducted by the company and presented in investor conferences projects that 20% of these visits could result in the use of a MelaFind scan. This suggests a potential U.S. addressable market of $370 million. Because MelaFind is a unique innovation in this space, investors can't judge its potential by looking at what other products have done.
Financial Position
The company had $13 million of cash at the end of 3Q, 2013, and may have burned $5 million in the fourth quarter. MELA contracted for an "at the market" equity line in June 2012 and has been using this line to bolster cash. The total amount of money that can be drawn down under this agreement is $20 million and in the third-quarter 10-Q it was disclosed that $3.4 million was drawn down in that quarter. This left about $16.4 million in the facility.
At a price of about $2.00 and based on daily volume of 600,000 shares per day in 4Q, 2012, I estimate that the company could have used its ATM to raise as much as $3 million per month in 4Q, 2012 or roughly $10 million for the quarter. I am not saying that it did do this just that I believe it could have. The advantage of an ATM or an equity line is that they can be used quietly and effectively without the disruptions and price drops that so often come with the announcements and executions of public offerings. The company will not comment, but I would think that the cash balance at the end of 4Q, 2013, could be unchanged at $13 million and I think that the ATM can offset the cash burn over the next two quarters.
What Will Move the Stock in 2013 and 2014?
The critical issue for the stock performance this year and going forward is gauging the success of the launch. The company was focused through the March 2012 to October 2012 period on signing contracts, installing MelaFind devices and educating physicians on how to use the product. The small installed base in offices of physicians who were still in a learning mode did not initially warrant a concentrated sales effort. In 2013, a sales effort directed at increasing physician use and patient understanding has begun.
As the launch cycle matures, investors will focus on the number of MelaFind devices installed and the number of scans per installed device to judge the progress of the launch and to make future sales projections. Perhaps later this year or early next, I would anticipate that the company may release metrics that will allow this type of analysis.
At this point in time, there is no hard financial data to determine whether the bears or bulls are right. The call on the stock is whether you believe that the clinical and economic advantages of MelaFind will lead to a commercial success and whether you believe that this management can successfully manage the launch. I have followed this company for over four years and have watched Joe Gulfo, the CEO, over that period of time. He has my confidence and I also believe in MelaFind. Based on that, I am recommending that investors begin to take a position in the stock and if the unfolding launch provides evidence that I am right continue to add to their position. This is an investment approach that I often use with controversial situations like MELA Sciences.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Thompson Reuters report released late Friday. STRONG BUY!
All aboard!!! CHOO CHOO
Here's why I love this Company :)
lucky is the one buying them
nice. looks like you might be on the green side already
inching, if that at all...
hope I was right ??
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As for lockout expiration... only weak hands will exit. if I were them, if SYNC is NetFlix bound, I would not exit until pps reach +$100. which they should know by now, but us retail peanuts will only begin to see the hints of it by September.
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WOW! 49s smh
who would of thought this would dive... ugh!
We're looking good going into August!!! chochA's dream come true. I miss the chocolate charm!
CEO says SYNC is in a transformative phase. Meaning, their leading disruptive technology will change TV as it exists today. They can't revise Q3 targets yet for the Dish and Olympics uptick. Those two pieces are too BIG to risk getting wrong. The lockout expiration approaches and that'll give them enough energy to come up with a solid revision.
Of course, news like this has forced the shorts to take action at a last desperate attempt to correct their foolish mistakes. I see the L2 activity in the After Hours. They initially brought the price down by double digits with lousy 50k shares. I call that air/smoke/nothing/nada. A lot of retail investors don't see L2 activity, so they just assume that the drop is real when in fact is only a game taking place behind the scenes.
Day to day peaks and valleys don't interest me, but I thought to share these war games that take place bt the haves and the have-not.
I have always been an August and beyond believer. This thing can sky rocket in the blink of an eye.
I think chochA already gave away all the answers, so nothing much more for me to say.
don't sell your shares to the shorts. with such low AF volume they are trying to take you for a ride...
Cable Giants are reclaiming their territory! The dream team walking alongside the tv everywhere expert is helping them and they will become filthy rich in doing so!
I am so clueless as to what the future holds bc I don't have a crystal ball.
Apple missed, Netflix missed, and others alike... Who's taking the cheddar? If you can answer this question, KACHING KACHING!!!
!!! LET'S PRINT BENJAMINS FOLKS!!!! FIND THE GAME AND GET IN THE GAME!!!!!!
simple. pps has dropped on air, relatively speaking and there isn't a whole lot of selling pressure at this point... so plenty of the bigger fish are actually staying put.
I'm not worried either way... I'm in this til Aug and beyond...
wow! L2 tells me SYNC could blow pass $15 pps in a blink of an eye.
SYNC's dream team and Board revealed. Thank you to whoever dug it all up.
Among them...
SYNC's Board Member Gary L. Ginsberg was formerly Assistant Counsel to President Clinton.
SYNC's Board Member Thomas W. Keaveney formerly served as an investment banker with Credit Suisse First Boston, where he was Chairman of the Private Finance Department.
I singled out this two gents bc after today... It's all about who knows who and influence by way of halo effect.
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air... SYNC proved to the shorts, that tv is everywhere...
Yup! Tomorrow after hours will be the start of fireworks to come! Don't be so quick to move those happy feet people. Eventually hitting $20 is still part of the beginning IMO. There's about nine innings to this rally and we are barely in the 4th inning.
Remember, we saw insider buying at +$11 pps... Guess what? I'm thinking they'll sell those shares when the shorts are willing to triple or quadruple that value. Just a matter of time, we are now in a place where patience pays off in due time.
I'm not sure how much Intel paid for their 2 million shares but I bet it was dirt cheap. The point I want to try to illustrate is that at one point, this month, those shares were valued at 36 million bucks, without the benefit of any real catalyst or official SYNC PRs. So the base line here for Intel should be not to sell a single share until it is well above $18. It just makes sense to me. I know they are locked in for now, I'm just saying I don't see how SYNC can be restrained from achieving an explosive pps.
I have no idea what I'm talking about, I'm bored and have nothing better to do, so I just make things up as I write.
now that my friend.... is majestic!
the pattern here has been to consistently hit new highs after a pull back. that's what the MMs want to do so that's exactly what shall perhaps continue. i'm living this pattern bc this means that SYNC will not lose its pps value when it gets to +40. this pattern breeds pps sustainability. i believe Bishara prefers sustainability. keep this thought in your back pocket as you wrestle with the trigger finger tomorrow, bc the inevitable new high is already on its way. IMO
the market is forward looking, so as soon as SYNC puts out a PR about their involvement... the bulls will do what they do best, and that day will come way sooner than you think.
a little help here!!
No one wants to believe in what the prospectus says... +$30 and beyond. Bishara didn't leave his post at HBO for nickels and dime... the man wants to be filthy rich!!! and deserved, it will be. the man likely knows tv everywhere more than he knows himself!!
Anyway, enough of that... The start of the climb looks quite promising this week. Help me get the message out, I don't want the loyal followers to miss out as they deserve every dime for there patience and research.
BTW. The email NIA sent today... the first two paragraphs are the most truthful paragraphs I've read from NIA but I doubt that those that have less than about $75,000 invested in SYNC will absorb/appreciate the brokage technicalities mentioned. I wish I could tell everyone to accept the facts as I see them... There was some panic selling, which lead to stop loss transactions to be filled, which lead to margin calls, which worsened Fed Calls, which lead to shorts taking a huge advantage... Trust me, I'm so glad the avalanche has come to an end so we can dust it off and continue the upward trajectory.
Jim Cramer gave the nod last week (green light). Apparently Cramer really likes this stock. SYNC already twitted Jim Cramer thanking him for recognizing SYNC as a successful IPO. Cramer also advised the early investors (likely those that got in at 6—8) to take a small fraction off the table. I'm not sure if his audience did, but if his audience listened and took some profits off the table they should get their running kicks ready bc they are going to have to do some serious chasing in the weeks ahead.
Don't forget to tell everyone that I have no idea what I'm talking about and that will like sell my entire position as soon as we start approaching $40.
HISTORICALLY, LEBED'S NIA HITS THE MARK WITHIN 90 DAYS OF PICK. DO YOU HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THEM HITTING THE TARGET AT 99 DAYS? smh. people should not invest money they can't afford to lose. sometimes people act like they got millions invested in this. Just let the darn thing cook would y'all. Geesus!!!
why would I wanna mark this post when $20 is practically a given.
darn I can't see from IPhone. can someone give me the skinny on this. This SYNC play is better than 50 Shades of Grey!!! You know, that Mommy porn-best-seller-thingamajig...
now you got it TORBOsig! Now you definitely got it!!!
I'm in no rush here. SYNC is solid footing for those who can afford to sit back and just what the show. Like an action movie, you get to see the good and bad parts.
I'll send you some when this beast finds a comfortable spot after Xmas.
eastern time? I'm NYC
I bet Chocha is not Lebed but I think that Lebed loves to spend money on Chocha. Everybody loves Chocha.
Full name is Chocolate Charm and she looks like she is part of the Charlie's Angels cast, I bet. Quit messing with Chocha and just listen to Chocha. Chocha always wins and will win this time as well.
when was sync on mad money
yup
nope. why?
this is why bankers take more bacon home, they load up after inflicting fear on the little guys!
the daily spikes and valleys are only important to high frequency day traders. this is not the first time this happens.
No worries. the only true catalysts are unannounced and will be announced starting next week. SYNC will hit +$40 pps but it will not do so until the catalysts begin making their way into the mainstream investment community.
TBDs for Synacor:
Next week's earnings. JUICIE!
release new revenue targets resulting from the recent Dish deal and other smaller deals. CHEE$E!
release integration update related to Carbyn. CHEE$E!
will SYNC continue with acquisitions for more cloud computing presence. CHEE$E!
how many new clients will they be signing on by December. CHEE$E!
compete.com traffic results for July will tickle the noodle, not to mention Aug/Sep results. CHEE$E!
As for lockout expiration... only weak hands will exit. if I were them, if SYNC is NetFlix bound, I would not exit until pps reach +$100. which they should know by now, but us retail peanuts will only begin to see the hits of it by September.
BATTABING!!!!
KACHING KACHING!!!
All in my opinion! GLTY!
*at these basement pps.
Low volume today so far, I don't blame the longs for holding on here... hello! it's obvious that we're going places soon. don't fear people. don't fear, otherwise someone is going to make out big at your expense by you selling your shares at these baent pps. you've earned it, now man up and wait for your grand prize. all IMO. GLTY
awareness and publicity is gold for recent IPO