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"Either very stupid or sheer genius." I vacillate back and forth on any given day.
Rounded out my position
All the best
OT; Liberal dream of a Kerry whitehouse
http://www.davidyounker.com/ecards/wafflehouse/shrine.jpg
All the best
Thanks jawmoke. SENS. Hoping they follow through
All the best
Took NGAS off the table. eom
Liberal dream of a Kerry whitehouse
http://www.davidyounker.com/ecards/wafflehouse/shrine.jpg
All the best
Berliner Bremen Exchange Listing. A way of circumventing new shorting rules?
Torbay Holdings Inc.: Berliner Bremen Exchange Listing Terminates April 30, 2004 and Consideration Being Given to DTC Withdrawal
NEW YORK, Apr 29, 2004 (PRIMEZONE via COMTEX) -- Torbay Holdings In
(OTCBB: TRBY) announced this morning that in early April, 2004, the Board's
attention was drawn to the fact that TRBY's stock was being traded on the
Berliner Bremen Unofficial Exchange in Germany without invitation or the Board's
knowledge. The Board immediately contacted the SEC, NASD and the Berlin exchange
to share its concerns at the timing and the fact of this event.
TRBY was advised this morning that the Broker, who listed TRBY's stock, has
agreed, following the Board's representations, to withdraw TRBY and so de-list
TRBY's stock from the Berliner Exchange as of April 30, 2004.
In a separate issue under consideration, the Board of TRBY have sought advice as
to the issues of withdrawing from the DTC electronic share transfer system in
response, initially, to the uncertainty over the listing of TRBY's stock on the
Berliner-Bremen Unofficial Exchange that took place on March 27, 2004, 4 days
before the new NASD rules came into effect. Subsequently, following the advice
received, the Board is now considering approaching its shareholders to seek
their approval to discontinue electronic settlement through the DTC system and
transact business in paper certificate form only.
SOURCE: Torbay Holdings Inc.
By Staff
CONTACT: Tom Large, President & CEO
Torbay Holdings Inc.
516 747 5955
tom@trby.com
Website www.trby.com or
Product: www.quillmouse.com
(C) 2004 PRIMEZONE, All rights reserved.
FWIW GBLL update on email I sent concerning delay
from IR
"Frank tells me that next week he will have the PR's out...he reminds me that he can't make the attorneys move any faster."
All the best
MYCO. your right. Business to business. eom
MYCO. Thunderous silence from their new PR firm so far.
All the best
Nibbled a little NGAS here. Keeping the rest of my powder dry
for now.
All the best
GBLL update
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
email from IR.
Mark,
Frank tells me that next week he will have the PR's out...he reminds me that he can't make the attorneys move any faster.
Got to admit though, they are consistant.
All the best
Greetings all. Hmmm. chocolate is good. Markets look like crap and SENS no filing.
All the best
Eye. Doing just that. eom
poorme, Company is harpooning itself short term by delays in software, press releases and the back to back S8.
We'll see
All the best
No prob mrgoodtrade, But if you guys start singing kumbaya I'm outta here.
All the best
I called the UMASS president to express my disgust.
President Wilson UMass Amherst
his rep
CONTACT: John Hoey, 617.287.7006
jhoey@umassp.edu
All the best
OT. last post should of been. Contact info if you would like to protest this tripe.
President Wilson UMass Amherst
his rep
CONTACT: John Hoey, 617.287.7006
jhoey@umassp.edu
All the best
This is an outrage. UMassAmhurst should be ashamed to be represented by this. Subversive punk
http://media.dailycollegian.com/pages/tillman_lobandwidth.html?in_archive=1
Pat Tillman is not a hero: He got what was coming to him
By Rene Gonzalez
April 28, 2004
When the death of Pat Tillman occurred, I turned to my friend who was watching the news with me and said, "How much you want to bet they start talking about him as a 'hero' in about two hours?" Of course, my friend did not want to make that bet. He'd lose. In this self-critical incapable nation, nothing but a knee-jerk "He's a hero" response is to be expected.
I've been mystified at the absolute nonsense of being in "awe" of Tillman's "sacrifice" that has been the American response. Mystified, but not surprised. True, it's not everyday that you forgo a $3.6 million contract for joining the military. And, not just the regular army, but the elite Army Rangers. You know he was a real Rambo, who wanted to be in the "real" thick of things. I could tell he was that type of macho guy, from his scowling, beefy face on the CNN pictures. Well, he got his wish. Even Rambo got shot in the third movie, but in real life, you die as a result of being shot. They should call Pat Tillman's army life "Rambo 4: Rambo Attempts to Strike Back at His Former Rambo 3 Taliban Friends, and Gets Killed."
But, does that make him a hero? I guess it's a matter of perspective. For people in the United States, who seem to be unable to admit the stupidity of both the Afghanistan and Iraqi wars, such a trade-off in life standards (if not expectancy) is nothing short of heroic. Obviously, the man must be made of "stronger stuff" to have had decided to "serve" his country rather than take from it. It's the old JFK exhortation to citizen service to the nation, and it seems to strike an emotional chord. So, it's understandable why Americans automatically knee-jerk into hero worship.
However, in my neighborhood in Puerto Rico, Tillman would have been called a "pendejo," an idiot. Tillman, in the absurd belief that he was defending or serving his all-powerful country from a seventh-rate, Third World nation devastated by the previous conflicts it had endured, decided to give up a comfortable life to place himself in a combat situation that cost him his life. This was not "Ramon or Tyrone," who joined the military out of financial necessity, or to have a chance at education. This was a "G.I. Joe" guy who got what was coming to him. That was not heroism, it was prophetic idiocy.
Tillman, probably acting out his nationalist-patriotic fantasies forged in years of exposure to Clint Eastwood and Rambo movies, decided to insert himself into a conflict he didn't need to insert himself into. It wasn't like he was defending the East coast from an invasion of a foreign power. THAT would have been heroic and laudable. What he did was make himself useful to a foreign invading army, and he paid for it. It's hard to say I have any sympathy for his death because I don't feel like his "service" was necessary. He wasn't defending me, nor was he defending the Afghani people. He was acting out his macho, patriotic crap and I guess someone with a bigger gun did him in.
Perhaps it's the old, dreamy American thought process that forces them to put sports greats and "larger than life" sacrificial lambs on the pedestal of heroism, no matter what they've done. After all, the American nation has no other role to play but to be the cheerleaders of the home team; a sad role to have to play during conflicts that suffer from severe legitimacy and credibility problems.
Matters are a little clearer for those living outside the American borders. Tillman got himself killed in a country other than his own without having been forced to go over to that country to kill its people. After all, whether we like them or not, the Taliban is more Afghani than we are. Their resistance is more legitimate than our invasion, regardless of the fact that our social values are probably more enlightened than theirs. For that, he shouldn't be hailed as a hero, he should be used as a poster boy for the dangerous consequences of too much "America is #1," frat boy, propaganda bull. It might just make a regular man irrationally drop $3.6 million to go fight in a conflict that was anything but "self-defense." The same could be said of the unusual belief of 50 percent of the American nation that thinks Saddam Hussein was behind Sept. 11. One must indeed stand in awe of the amazing success of the American propaganda machine. It works wonders.
Al-Qaeda won't be defeated in Afghanistan, even if we did kill all their operatives there. Only through careful and logical changing of the underlying conditions that allow for the ideology to foster will Al-Qaeda be defeated. Ask the Israelis if 50 years of blunt force have eradicated the Palestinian resistance. For that reason, Tillman's service, along with that of thousands of American soldiers, has been wrongly utilized. He did die in vain, because in the years to come, we will realize the irrationality of the War on Terror and the American reaction to Sept. 11. The sad part is that we won't realize it before we send more people like Pat Tillman over to their deaths.
Rene Gonzalez is a UMass graduate student.
DIO. I don't get it. They want to RS. eom
Rig, If I were to name a song for TRBY
It would be from this 70s band
http://www.arccds.com/h/h/Dan-Hicks/Wheres-the-Money--B000002PE6.htm
All the best
"Keep It Simple Software". Thats not what KISS stands for.
LOL
All the best
Ready for the Next Bubble?
Wednesday April 28, 12:38 pm ET
By Salim Haji
Motley Fool
As interest rates begin to rise, concern has increased about a potential housing bubble and its effects if it were to burst. As individual investors consider the likelihood and implications of a real estate bubble, three questions have to be addressed: First, does it matter if there is a bubble and it bursts? Second, what is the likelihood that there is indeed a real estate bubble forming? And third, what can be done about it? Each of these questions is addressed in turn below.
Does it matter?
The existence of a real estate bubble matters to individual investors on two levels. First, it matters on the macro-economic level, because the bursting of a property bubble will have a broad detrimental impact on the economy and the stock market. But it also matters on a micro-economic (or household) level, as the bursting of a real estate bubble can significantly hurt the average household balance sheet.
On the macro-economic level, the data is compelling. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an in-depth analysis of equity market and real estate crashes in its April 2003 edition of the World Economic Outlook. In this study, it concluded: "Housing price busts were associated with output effects about twice as large as those of equity price busts. The worse case output effects exceeded those of equity price busts by a substantial margin. Moreover, the slowdown after a housing price bust lasted about twice as long." The average real decline in prices in a housing market crash (30% after four years) was found to be less than for a stock market crash (45% decrease in equity prices, on average, after two-and-a-half years), but at the end of each of those periods, GDP (or "output") had fallen 8% after a housing bubble burst compared to 4% after a stock market bubble burst.
The reasons for why the bursting of a housing bubble has such a big macro-economic impact are intuitive. First, consumers, on average, have a lot more of their wealth tied up in real estate than they do in stocks, so any change in the prices of homes has a bigger impact on consumer spending than a change in equity prices. Second, consumers are more likely to borrow to buy their homes, thus amplifying the impact of price swings on their wealth by being leveraged.
The macro-economic impact is nothing more than the aggregation of the impacts at the household level. To illustrate, let's take an example of a household that has $100,000 in net assets. Of that $100,000, one-half, or $50,000, is tied up in equity on the family's home. The home is worth, say, $250,000, and there is an outstanding mortgage of $200,000 on the home. A pretty typical situation.
Now suppose that housing prices drop by 20%, and the family is forced to relocate because the head of the household has lost her job. The price of the home has fallen by 20%, to $200,000 by the time the family sells their home. They use all the proceeds to repay their original mortgage, and their equity is completely wiped out. Their net worth has just been cut in half from $100,000 to $50,000.
Does a real estate bubble matter? You bet it does.
Is there a real estate bubble in America?
Although many people currently believe otherwise, real estate crashes do occur, albeit infrequently. The IMF study cited above looked at 14 countries between 1970 and 2002, and found 20 instances of real estate bubbles bursting (defined as a housing price contraction of 14% or more), and 25 examples of equity prices crashes (defined as a drop in equity prices of 37%).
When housing crashes do occur, they are severe. The average housing price crash in the IMF study lasted four years and had a total decrease in housing prices of 30%. In addition, the study found that real estate busts were more likely to have been preceded by a boom where home prices increased sharply for a number of years.
American house prices are up 30% since the mid-1990s, the biggest real gain over any such period in recorded history, according to the Economist magazine.
As the experience in the recent stock market bubble demonstrates, identifying bubbles is an extremely difficult task. But valuation metrics similar to the ones used in the stock market apply to the real estate market. The equivalent of the P/E ratio in the real estate market is the ratio of house prices to rents. In the U.S., according to the Economist, that ratio is now at a 20-year high and more than 15% above its average value between 1975 and 2000. Another ratio used for valuation is the ratio of house prices to average household income. According to the Economist, that ratio is also at a record high, 14% above its long-run average.
These averages mask differences by market. In some markets, like New York City, housing prices and valuation metrics indicate a much more overheated housing market than in other parts of the country. The Economist predicts that housing prices will fall in the U.S. in the next few years by 15% to 20% on average -- significantly more in certain markets, and less in others.
Like the recent stock market bubble, forecasting when the bubble will burst is near impossible. Potentially, if inflation picks up and interest rates rise, that could cause the bubble to burst. Or some unforeseen external economic shock -- a big spike in oil prices, for example -- could also occur and cause the bubble to burst. But robust, fundamental economic analysis suggests that a bubble is building in the U.S. real estate market, and like all bubbles, it will sooner or later burst.
What can be done?
Unfortunately, as the recent Motley Fool article "Who Cares about the Housing Bubble?" pointed out, there is little that individual homeowners can do to protect themselves, other than plan conservatively. Potential ways to hedge financial exposure are all problematic. One option could be to short housing stocks, such as KB Home (NYSE: KBH - News), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI - News), Lennar (NYSE: LEN - News), or Centex (NYSE: CTX - News). But shorting stocks is highly risky, especially in a situation such as this one where a bubble could easily persist for a long time. Theoretically, one could rent instead of buy, but for most people who already own a home that is not a very practical alternative.
It is remarkable to me that the financial services industry has not developed a product to tap this potential unmet need among consumers -- home equity insurance. While I have insurance to protect the value of my house against fire or other physical disaster, I have no way to buy insurance against a fall in housing prices, something that seems much more likely to me.
Developing the product could be relatively simple. An index would have to be created that would closely match the characteristics of my home (for example, single-family homes in Denver in the $300,000-to-$400,000 price range). The price of that index would fluctuate, based on the prices of the underlying assets, and it would be updated on a regular basis. Once the index is established, any financial services firm, like H&R Block (NYSE: HRB - News) or Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU - News), could use derivative products to create insurance products based on that index. For example, I could buy a product that would increase in value if the housing index fell. The individual products could be tailored to the specific needs of homeowners, and the insurance risk could be laid off to large reinsurance companies.
Very few people have written on this topic. One notable exception is Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who also wrote Irrational Exuberance, the prescient book published shortly prior to bursting of the U.S. stock market bubble. Shiller has published a number of papers on residential real estate insurance, but the financial services industry has never really picked up on the idea.
Perhaps that will change, and an entrepreneurial company will come up with a viable insurance product for homeowners to protect their equity in their homes. Until that happens, the best thing for homeowners to do is to be realistic in their assumptions about the capital appreciation in their homes, and to ensure that they are prepared for a crash in housing prices. Signs indicate that a housing bubble is forming, and that it will eventually burst. And when it does, history tells us that the impact will be significant.
Fool contributor Salim Haji owns a home in Denver, Colo., but does not own any of the stocks mentioned in this article.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/040428/1083170280_2.html
Thanks All. eom
FWIW GBLL. Latest email from IR
4/28 when asked about the delay in update.
Thank you again for your patience we are waiting for a contract to be signed to make our next release. We are not in control of the lawyers that are approving the deal. Once signed, I am positive you can expect a pleasant amount of news.
Thanks again,
Pat Donahoo
702-326-6829
-----Original Message-----
All the best
Latest email fro IR
Thank you again for your patience we are waiting for a contract to be signed to make our next release. We are not in control of the lawyers that are approving the deal. Once signed, I am positive you can expect a pleasant amount of news.
Thanks again,
Pat Donahoo
702-326-6829
-----Original Message-----
All the best
Greenspan suggests markets weakness can be overcome by eating more chocolates.
Ok Ok, so he really didn't say it. But could it hurt?
All the best
Markets mixed as prospect of interest-rate hike lingers
By Lisa Singhania
ASSOCIATED PRESS
April 28, 2004
NEW YORK – Wall Street, stymied again by worries about interest rates, gave up a healthy early advance and closed mixed yesterday. Investors ended up disregarding another encouraging economic report and better-than-expected earnings from companies including Lockheed Martin Corp. and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Inc.
Analysts said the market can't decide whether to buy on the improving business climate or sell on the increasing likelihood of higher rates.
"We're seeing robust earnings and, in a lot of cases, positive surprises in earnings," said Peter Wall, chief investment officer at Chase Personal Financial Services. "But it still seems to be a dilemma for the market to focus on earnings or interest rates."
The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 33.43, or 0.3 percent, at 10,478.16, after gaining more than 90 points earlier in the session.
Broader stock indicators were mixed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 2.58, or 0.2 percent, to 1,138.11, while the Nasdaq composite index slipped 4.24, or 0.2 percent, to 2,032.53.
The erratic session followed two weeks of declines over interest rates. With the economy improving, many on Wall Street are nervous that the Federal Reserve will move up its timeline for raising rates. Higher interest rates would make it more costly for companies to borrow money – leading some investors to worry that business expansion will slow.
There were more indications yesterday that the economic rebound continues. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.9 from a revised 88.5 in March. The reading was better than the 88.5 that analysts had forecast.
There was a bright side to the difficult session. The economic reports didn't trigger any immediate selling, unlike other upbeat data over the past two weeks. Some analysts said the lack of a sharp sell-off suggested the market's mood is improving, although it remains challenging for stocks to hold their gains.
"We've had a few trading sessions for profit-takers to take profits off the tables, and we've alleviated to some extent some of the valuation concerns we had a month ago because earnings have come in very strong in the first quarter," said Kevin Caron, a market strategist with Ryan, Beck & Co., LLC. "When you combine that with the consumer confidence numbers, this suggests to me this is a strong market."
Advancing issues led decliners nearly 5 to 4 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 1.92 billion shares, up from 1.66 billion on Monday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies closed up 1.31, or 0.2 percent, at 590.76.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average slipped 1.01 percent. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 finished up 0.1 percent, Germany's DAX index advanced 0.2 percent and France's CAC-40 closed down 0.1 percent.
Fed chief urges boost in natural gas imports
By Martin Crutsinger
ASSOCIATED PRESS
April 28, 2004
Associated Press
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called for a major expansion of LNG facilities yesterday.
WASHINGTON – The United States needs to expand the global trade in natural gas as a way to prevent future sharp price increases from harming its economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday.
Greenspan said a dramatic rise in recent years in the price of oil and gas for delivery six years into the future was almost certain to have an impact on the U.S. economy.
But he said the impact is likely to be greater for users of natural gas because they had no global supply to cushion price increases.
"If North American gas markets are to function with the flexibility exhibited by oil, more extensive access to the vast world reserves of gas is required," Greenspan said in remarks to an energy conference sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi, speaking at the same conference, said his country and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries still supported maintaining a $22 to $28 per barrel target band for oil despite Venezuela's recommendation at OPEC's September meeting to raise the target by $2 per barrel.
"I don't believe there is a fissure" on the issue inside OPEC, Naimi said. "There is a dialogue, and some member countries expressed their desires."
Greenspan said imports of liquefied natural gas accounted for only 2 percent of the U.S. market last year in part because environmental and safety concerns have limited the number of U.S. ports with facilities to handle liquefied natural gas, or LNG, shipments.
But he said that situation could be changing.
"Given notable cost reductions for both liquefaction and transportation of LNG, significant global trade is developing," he said. "And high natural gas prices projected by distant futures prices have made imported gas a more attractive option for us."
San Diego-based Sempra Energy has announced plans to build three LNG receiving terminals, one north of Ensenada in Baja California in a joint venture with Royal Dutch/Shell, and one each in Louisiana and Texas.
Other projects include proposals by ChevronTexaco to build a floating LNG receiving terminal off Baja California, Mitsubishi subsidiary Sound Energy Solutions for a terminal in Long Beach and Calpine for one on Northern California's Humboldt Bay.
Greenspan said the fact that worldwide imports account for 57 percent of global oil consumption but only 23 percent of natural gas consumption showed the growth potential for trade in natural gas.
Greenspan said the price of energy contracts for delivery six years into the future had risen sharply over the past four years after a decade of "tranquillity."
He noted that the price of oil for delivery in six years fell from $20 per barrel just before the Persian Gulf War to $16 to $19 per barrel in 1999.
Distant futures contracts for natural gas were less than $2 per 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas at the time of the Gulf War and had risen only slightly to $2.50 per 1,000 cubic feet by 1999.
But currently, distant futures contracts for oil have risen to more than $27 per barrel while the price increase for natural gas has been even more noticeable, rising from $3.20 per 1,000 cubic feet in 2001 to almost $5 now.
While Greenspan said the rise in oil prices apparently reflected increased fears about supply disruptions in the Middle East, he attributed the increase in natural gas prices to the fact that the global trade in natural gas is more limited.
"Natural gas pricing . . . is inherently far more volatile than oil, doubtless reflecting, in part, less-developed, price-damping global trade," he said.
To deal with these price pressures, Greenspan called for more access to global supplies through a major expansion of liquefied natural gas terminal facilities and the development of newer technology that allows the liquefied natural gas to be turned back into a gas at offshore facilities.
"As the technology of LNG liquefaction and shipping has improved and as safety considerations have lessened, a major expansion of U.S. import capability appears to be under way," Greenspan said.
He said these developments offered great promise of boosting the availability of natural gas in the long term. But he cautioned that since it will take years to put the new facilities into operation, the near-term outlook for natural gas prices would likely remain "challenging."
GBLX. Question is how many times can a POS be resurected?
All the best
Ellasguy0. SENS. Appreciated. eom
GV. Just needs the volume. VWAP is usually higher than the ask towards the EOD. Boring is a better word.
All the best
CVM. One of those that never gels with me.
All the best
ALMI looking good but....I don't think the market gets the significance/signal of the magnitude of the news. Should take it to the next level. Then again its still early.
JMHO
All the best
WWTR. Might want to put on watch. Low float water (as commodity) transfer company. Had very high volume yesterday. coming off 52 wk lows.
I have no clue why the activity occured.
All the best
RUBM. Ruby has no "E" in the spelling. eom
Thanks Rig. Food stocks seem to be the big winner.
Should be an interesting day manana.
All the best
Nice buy on WNMI at the close. eom
Record temps down south of you buzz. Gonna power wash the house. Oh honey do.
All the best
Missed your BRVO. Congrats Rig. Another stellar call.
All the best
Picked up a few chocolates. eom