Trying ;)
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Yea, it's a little shameful. I know what they are thinking as historically rates are used to throttle markets up and down to level out resssion and inflation. But in this case, inflation is not due to heated economy but supply side, specifically supply chain which is typical supply and demand. The goal should be thus improve supplies = increased gas and goods supplies which lowers inflationary pressure we see.
Supply and demand seeks equilibrium. Typicly supply increase to meet demand for which control is price. Demand outstriping supply then price goes up while supply outstriping demand price goes down. The equilibrium is suppliers produce cheapest price they can for what demand dictates assuming competition. Hence the fed approach is the oppisite of what is needed as they are decrease demand. First problem is that aproach works for discretionary goods and service but does nothing for shortages in required goods and services like transportation, food, housing. Lack of demand for discretionary good dings the ecconomy. The second problem is as you pointed out, people can afford it -there is not adequate supies of needed goods so inflation persists overall... this may give a soft landing but with least desireable consequences--could be quite horrific consequences. it's a government doing where the fed is doing best they can (too much political presure there though). In short, it's going to suck!
Know you're probably right... might buy S ....
Pause before the storm perhaps? Storm up or down? Only thing I'm certain of is Friday is big day and if the markets go up, it's due to feds, if down it's due to feds-- twist it the way it flows!
I believe earnings have been mostly good news. But that said, I don't think the Feds can curve inflation by raising rates. They may be able to send us into recession which could work ... because you'll decrees demand in time of week supplies. But that doesn't cure the supply side issues and that is what is truely needed. This is supply side so should look at supply side fixes vice inhibiting demand side.. we don't have an overheated ecconomy dictating raising interest rates to cool it.
I agree that interest rates were too low for too long but the pause in rates should be restarted in a hot economy -- raiseing rates doesn't spark strong economic activity -- it does opposite! World ecconomy is hurting -- raising rates is opposite to what is needed. What is needed is fixing the supply side issues -- not doing that!
I agree, except the whole time when we were shutdown from covid and there was no ecconomy, the market rocked... then after we started recover, we had this correction we are in. Seems a little backwards. But I have to believe that both lower and higher times are ahead for the market. They always try to attribute any change in market to some world happening ... a thunderstorm in Antarctica if that's all there is.
But elections do indeed effect the markets ... up or down is what the guess is.
China is a big concern ... we have become dependant on them to manufacture meds, chips, .....
Yea, mostly casino these days ... and the casino wins. But I think there are general trends and news to play so more like poker and yes, even a good had can loose ... just don't want to put bets on every hand, certainly not a bad hand! Slots more random ... I don't play slots lol.
That's the general trend I see. Monday is more hit around miss but tue and Wednesday good then Thurs and Friday hit or miss.
Yea, I don't know about aholding for months ... even weeks, , but I can go a for days holding SQQQ. There is no crystal ball, if there was we would do that. All we can do is what our gut tells us during theses times. I think my gut says to play the small bumps and dips. If I sell, and it dips and i buy but it falls further, at least In in cheaper then I was.
So read this ... The stock market could surge another 12% into year-end as technicals turn positive, according to JPMorgan.
The bank said more than $100 billion from trend followers are on the verge of pouring into stocks.
I don't think it's stupid holding T or S ... but it does mean you need to take advantage of oprotunities ... a missed oprotunity could mean you in a position of minimizing losses.vice maximizing gains. You probably had an opportunity pre market on S and T is still good.
You asked earlier what to trust. For every *buy* analysis there is a *sell* analysis.... you can take info from both, but in the end, trust the ticker!
I'll be the first to say fundamentals count, but some of the best market runs have had zero fundamentals like junk bonds, dotcoms, crypto, .... big list. Arguement there is sentiment weighs higher. Technicals are good but again reflect sentiment and fundamentals. In the end, it is your gut (and everything it has digested).
Guess you have to see what Monday brings on that S but not a big loss at this point and probably will have a good out monday. I do think T will start heading south as don't think this is recovery we seek at this point and so is just a nice bump in road. Certainly not easy to pick directions!
I can remember having both T and S and buying or selling what ever is on move.and making $ both directions. Kind of a hedge but I'm more cautious these days.
Seeing if anyone is here lol ... Here and waiting ...
I'll sell if it starts a major dips but i dont see that happening right now. But ill certainly repurchase after dip. History of indexes has been certainly an upward trajectory over long terms ... no problem playing volatility though. Wednesday been an up day lately ... Friday often down so would be time to sell if drop is indicated.
Could be, but if not as bas as expected then up, worse then expected down, or burned out on inflation is guess. It's always hard to figure.
Could be, but if not as bas as expected then up, worse then expected down, or burned out on inflation is guess. It's always hard to figure.
Big moves usually have reasons but it's been relitively flat for maybe 5days, so, I'll say no reason. But i am waiting for reason up or down.
China concerns could effect chips and inturn Apple. ... it really just takes one fang...
That's a nice gain! Yea I saw that run-up but dawn again Rollercoaster could make for fun trading!
Right! They don't have much cash on hand so they need short turnover cycle assuming it's as good and as in demand as they estimated. It's growing pains--a good place but hard place. They also have a lot invested in R&D and marketing. I'll say it's a rather big gamble, biger them I would take for sure, but the rewards could be huge if they win.
But I do have another consideration. See, if it was just Jake, I might have concerns about bussiness experiance, but I know the Canadians have both the experiance and years of wisdom! That's my warn fuzzies!
Best of luck as always. It is hard but historically indexes are mostly up. Considering the pullback from highs, there is a big delta to make up. However, it's still volatile ... can always hope it's up up and away!
Yea, just read compelling article "Massive Buying In SQQQ Indicates A Bear Market Bottom". Their definition of "bear market bottom" was a market top, the is "bear" being short or inverse which was interesting??? But I certainly understand what record buying in SQQQ implies about sentiment.
Yea, just read compelling article "
Another day, another play. Only question is what!
Well, I can't figure why that is ... except .... so many piecemeal legislation but nothing. I still say it just better to remove from drug list which fixes all, but they tease with piecemeal bits that never happen. I know this is an on the ball company but it needs news, industry wide news.
Always a screaming buy! I'm no longer subscribed so can't pm ya!
Doesn't look like PPT gave you a chance today. ... maybe monday?
Hopefully Powel keeps the ecconomy vice politics in mind. It might be better on helping Dem to hit hard now with hopefully some results earlier, then lessor later making things better going into Nov election cycle -- just a thought. But I sure hope it's all about the inflation and ecconomy and not politics. I listen to Powel and he does seem well aware, this is "different", not clasic, unique, and complexed, thus cautious on impact and results. ... makes me more optimistic while still concerned.
So housing is leading indicator for resession (but not a stand alone indicator = no such animal): Housing starts tumbled 14.4% to a 13-month low in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.549 million units, and permits for new construction fell 7% to 1.695 million. Something to watch.
I follow Aroraguy too!!!
I think your subsequent posts answered the question ... government policy.
But I'll address why we are not in an overheated economy by stating we are not at pre-pandemic economic levels. The unemployment numbers sound good but we have less employed then pre-pandemic. GDP is also not at pre-pandemic levels if you subtract the government component thus leaving private sector goods and services. It's easy for government to spend trillians and raise GDP and thus disguises true economic activity (a complaint I have of GDP.). Today you also have to consider world economy as no nation is independent-- every nation is interdependent on other nations. The world ecconomy simply can't be overheated with segments shutdown/locked down. Sortof ike removing a cars accelarator then saying you're at full speed at idle. Anyway, ecconomy is far from full capabilities so simply can't be overheated.
A good win for sure, but not unexpected. There is always the problem receiving such awwards. I had judgement but spent even more time and money trying to collect on that judgement then the judgement itself and in end, lawyers basically got the judgement. Guess it not over till the fat lady sings lol. I hope it's over.!
I think we are at a crossroads here ... think WSHE has gone "all in" on Sutclif and question is if they win the pot (no pun intended). It's a crossroads for sure as I debate on puting in bid for 1m shares.
I agree. And it would be quite devastating to world ecconomy. One china is interesting (as is one korea) but the question is if that one china is the Repunlic of china (tiawan) or people's republic of china (PRC or china). Truth is that PRC wants entire region not just tiawan so tiawan just one part. But the chip and drugs would be smashed and why they are trying to get these back to USA ... not sure there is enough time for chips as takes a few years.
S are even shorter than T so have to be more carefull is all. But probably a good bet that there is more pain ahead in market still.
I want to touch upon interest rates and inflation a bit. And IMO! There are many causes of inflation ...cost push ... wage push ... demand side ... supply side ... . but historically, these inflation causes are due to a overheated ecconomy, and hence, raising interest rates tightens the money supply and cools ecconomy and brings down inflation. To be clear, you have inflation, just at a low rate (desireable). If deflation actually occurs, you're probably entered a depression, but I digress. So, anyways, the important thing is not that there's iinflation but rather the specific cause of that inflation and then to deal with specific cause. I'll cut it short at this point and just say, if the causes are not due to an overheated ecconomy, and you treat it as if it is, without considering the true causes, you'll do more harm then good cause, well, the true causes still exist! And Yes, I do not think an overheated ecconomy is the cause!
Yes, 50bp, but also 3=4 times this year. That is supposed to be already priced in and thus only have an effect if it differs. I think inflation is main driver at the moment ... and oil bigest inflator.
I received your PM but I let my paid account expire so can't PM back. But yes is answer to your question.
Considering price targets average of around $37 and recient buy/strong buy with targets $45-$50 ... potential 300% upside ... their MSO consistent growth, and many quarters of positive revenues (paving the way for rest of industry)... have to agree $11 does seems dang cheap!
Lots in that iceburg for sure!!!! Nice to see many of the same names still fighting for the cause!!! Go AMC ... go apes!
Well, error is in thought that it's simple supply and demand.-- it's not! True, It would be simple supply and demand if all trades occured on the exchange as they once did as intended. Then with more buying than selling, the price goes up, and more selling then buying, the stock goes down. But thats not the case as huge amounts of trades occure off exchange; hence the exchanges no longer reflect true share price. Just watch the daily volume here (hint click on trades), even if just for a week, then try to answer why/how the price can go down when buy volume exceeds sell volume? And that's only just the tip of the iceberg!!!
Let me know how that works for you. IMO for every optimist article, there is a pessimistic article. So it's up to a person to analyze what is likely and that which isn't and not necessarily with the flow (alerts) as they can and do change in a heartbeat!!! I just view as pump and dumps but i have fallen for them. And yea I eat bananas but am over eating crayons.
Lol.
Very motivational.!!!! But it takes money to make money! There could be 100m in demand for sunclif, but I don't think they have the money, to produce the product needed make 100M in sales, well, not in one year anyways. To meet such aggressive goals, they need host of other suppliers and that is going to cut into margins and huge accounts payable (huge turnovers in) ... something to think about and consider.
You short term trade certainly better then my long. I wasn't expecting long, but caught betting wrong way. The correct move was to minimize loss, but I missed thoes opportunities hoping for less losses. I thought about puting more $$ in short plays, which would reduce losses but #1 rule is don't put in more then you can afford to loose! Think I'm there! But I didn't follow rules so that's on me cuz I know better.
For you, I say Keep doing what's working! Its another rule that says work within your knowledge set ... venturing outside of that is one where to get bit.
QQQ has same trading curve and TQQQ follows that so not specific to that. It's a weighted nasdaq109 so I just watch the FANG stocks as that's where the heaviest weighting is ... them being down usually means TQQQ (and QQQ) down.
Was wondering ... at least yo were out in AM before the drop. Like everyone has said ... it's unpredictable!
That seems like a good bet! I expected a bit of consolidation after la great week ... today was good signals so expect a good climb tomorrow.