Trying ;)
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What he is trying to tell you guys is clearing houses don't like to loose, hence, 54 is where market will close to protect options. Happens a lot!
That was my plan. I had decided to sell if it hit 27 as figured it would drop back down to low 20s. I still say that but but but it's "was" because I don't see the sell signal i was expecting so need to watch afterhours to see.
hoping for more today ... have my doubts on Friday though.
Looks like you up day ;)
Well, apparently a FED pause was the expectation.... not more to say!
Yea, I believe PPT pushes it up till some FED announcements. Then it depends on what the announcements say.
Yum! Alder cold smoked salmon mighty fine too! I fished alot out of washington including the Columbia as a kid and a few times since. it's one of my favorite places on earth ... it's certainly God's country!
Yea, I should go with gut vice brain lol. Anyway, I lived by Indian reservation and we would collect wagon(s) full of beer bottles = big money to us! So I can relate!
Just my take on situation ... thoughts?
So in a nutshell, I think TQQQ will rise in near term but problems persists so I don't think it will be lasting ...
I think tripper mentioned variable rate mortgages... Canadian? US does have Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) but prudent people with ARMs would transfer to fixed on FED threat of rising rates. But I understand some countries only have variable rates. Also, many US private investment firms have gone to variable rate (LIBER + fixed) to save them from rising rates without need to hedge and/or swaps.
Previous explaination should be good emough for TQQQ rising. But In addition to treasuries there is also gov backed mortgages... like the bonds, these also loses value -- why would a MREIT buy a 3% load when rates are 6%??? These securities also looses values (BTW, Time to buy MREITs is dropping interest). Then there are corporate bonds etc. It far reaching!
The FED is banking and the treasury is Gov. The Fed has to look after banks however many of the fed board are Gov appointees... hence conflict of interest, but is another issue. But the treasury has thoes 30T in bonds. Most of these are low interest, say .5 percent to interest is $150B but as they are renewed at 5% that jumps to 1.5T ... considering the treasure takes in 3T, half would go just to interest. And considering a 6T budget that's a 4.5T deficit. Doubling Taxes (not feasible) would cover the budget but still have 1.5T in deficit due to interest on debt. That's leads to printing more $ deviating the $ and, well, if the $ value is 50% less, inflation doubles. A solution is gov getting a handle on spending, real cause of inflation, but congress have never been able to do that. They claimed to of had a balanced budget during Clinton's term but that was due to SS taxes being thrown into general treasury account.
Previous explaination should be good emough for TQQQ rising. But In addition to treasuries there is also gov backed mortgages... like the bonds, these also loses value -- why would a MREIT buy a 3% load when rates are 6%??? These securities also looses values (BTW, Time to buy MREITs is dropping interest). Then there are corporate bonds etc. It far reaching!
The FED is banking and the treasury is Gov. The Fed has to look after banks however many of the fed board are Gov appointees... hence conflict of interest, but is another issue. But the treasury has thoes 30T in bonds. Most of these are low interest, say .5 percent to interest is $150B but as they are renewed at 5% that jumps to 1.5T ... considering the treasure takes in 3T, half would go just to interest. And considering a 6T budget that's a 4.5T deficit. Doubling Taxes (not feasible) would cover the budget but still have 1.5T in deficit due to interest on debt. That's leads to printing more $ deviating the $ and, well, if the $ value is 50% less, inflation doubles. A solution is gov getting a handle on spending, real cause of inflation, but congress have never been able to do that. They claimed to of had a balanced budget during Clinton's term but that was due to SS taxes being thrown into general treasury account.
That "was" my thought but Playing S right now might be a big mistake ... I'll explain.
It has to do with fed raising interest rates too fast -- I mentioned my view on this many moons ago here -- basicly wrong medicine for wrong reason. Impact is far reaching, but there is some $30T in low interest treasures bonds held. High Interest means bigger discount rate. In theory if I buy a $1000 10yr at .5%, at maturity I get $1000 while earning a measly 5% but still a profit. But if I have to sell that $1000 prematurely when rates are 5% I have to sell at a massive discount, say $800 ... I could go through accounting with better numbers but is an example. Reason for discount is: who would want a .5% when they can get 5%?? Hence, the bank (and others) liquidity problem as it's a paperwork issue. However the fed really has no choice but to freeze or even lower rates and that is good for tech and thus TQQQ. As I mention it's far reaching and not that $30T so there is more (next post)
I think I'm only allowed to do <5 day trades a week or my account changes in some way??? I'll have to research fully but think I had some warnings in that reguards on a few of my trades. Might be broker specific???
I was going to get out of T at 25 today as seems we are range bound (in 20-25) so figure it would drop Friday by close and continue and then get in lower around 20 mid next week, rinse and repete. I say "was" as now I think not, at least not yet. To be honest, I haven't done trades here or S in months as I just can't get a good read ... need that gut feel and it's not there!!! But I know I can stay like this either.
Sweet to close week like this -- bullish!
So the question of the day is, as always, will it be up or down? I'm thinking up!
You can buy T and S and make $ trading both! How good is that! But I do think there be a correction to this rally at some point and T will drop, soooo, even if S has a bad day today, may not tomorrow! I just wish I had that crystal ball, but that said, can still make $ both directions!
I don't worry about a TQQQ sell-off as neither buying nor selling has any price impact on T nor S. They may be a sentiment indicator but I watch the underlying tech stocks and how they are doing as a group because that is what determines TQQQ pricing. That said, there has been a nice bounce in many of those techs and so may be a high point TQQQ. I think there is opportunity in near future for lower T buyin as well as higher T.
Of course, the trick is playing those highs and lows!
That's probably true! Meta gone crazy so probably pump T nicely!
It might have typed out in this ban ... but it really depends on underlying stocks/weights and earnings. You never know when it'll decide to take off!
I'm doing well! Thanks!
I'm just monitoring things to see if it's time to jump out of some cash and where.. This is a nice rally but hard to tell how it'll fare ... guess I'll wait on more earning reports ...
Its not just this quarter ... believe GTBIF is the most profitable MJ interprise period.
Yes! Go T!!! I'm still here lol
Nope! You have to Call it as you see it!!
I hear ya. Lol. Two market garentees are 1) market will go down and 2) market will go up--the order is not of the guarantees.
I need to see the bottom first ... it is flattening out and $27 looks good but dont think i see what you're seeing and need to see that little upturn. I do have thoughts of double down to lower my overall PPS cost. But I'm about to do some traveling so can't lookover things as good as I like.
Symbolic hurricane? No real hurricanes out there at the moment and only a couple of months left in hurricane season so assume symbolic. Which is true statement. It takes 100s of billions to develop an oil field (capex) and with green taking over and hostile oil lobby, there is going to be no new fields -- just no return on capital. So what you see is what you get. Oil prices will remain high ... gas prices will remain high into the foreseeable future. And yes, so it follows, that inflation caused by increased energy cost is also permant.. inflation will level off, but to go down takes a depression and, well, nobody benefits there except thoes authoritarian governments. This is now and oil is king!
So OIl, existing oil, will remain king. They'll pull in profits and start their evolution to new bussiness ... carbon happen. (Maybe they'll caputure enough to kill plant life and destroy the planet ... hurray for carbon capture), chemical, perhaps manufacturing or just as investment firms, but they will evolve as it is survival of the fittest ... oil profits gives them the capital to evolve ... into what we shall see, for sure. But everyone knows that will hoppen.. I see no better place to be than in oil, in OXY. Just my opinion.
BTW my MJ holdings are relitively small as you never keep all eggs in one basket. Nothing wrong in having small amounts of speculative stocks as the 1 in 10 that comes to fruition can more than make up (and more) for the 9 that don't. But it should be a small portion of one's overall profolio. Not trying to be critical or judgemental, Just saying!
I've held this thince edebit years ... maybe 15+ years? So I can't answer when it's time to dump. ... it's personal. I had a friend that dumped everything he had in a $5 startup ... we said he was crazy -- his whole lifes savings ... everything! He made a good profit when he dumped them, however, if he had just held thoes Microsoft shares ....
I also invest in green thumbs which has shown a profit for many quarters now and as you realize is unusual for a MJ stock but I point out it is possible. First Problem is, as you noted, lots of not only fed issues but also state rules ... and note some states clearly not profitable for a corp. So it keeps things at state level (except CBD). Can have bussiness in other states but independant bussinesses = MSO). Banking is issue and most of these operations have to keep a cash basis = tricky. Tax is issue as it raises cost to consumers and it also keeps black market alive. When you have the Fed tax, its just going to add to it.adds to it. The fed simply declaring it no longer a category drug opens the door (no longer banking issue etc) but feds want their take and so we'll just have other regulations to work around. Basically, changes hands and gov is drug dealer without hassles. No easy answeres but any law will change dynamic one way or another ... CBD is safest route for now! But they should keep other product lines cuz you don't know.
Yes, it's called a realized gain or loss when you sell. Un till then it's unrealized ... so it's true. Good news you also don't get taxed on unrealized gains (not yet) or deduct against gains for unrealized loss. I know they want to tax unrealized gains (cuz its weath) but is programmatic. FWIW. I don't like red in unrealized loss either,!
Only good news on unrealized loss is come dec, you can use the loss (sell to realize) to offset any/all gains +3k. Unless you already have carryover losses in which case you probably get that $3k write off for life (untill they change that tax laws anyway)
Unrealized losses can easily become unrealized gains in time ... it's the crazy thing! I had a stock go sub penny on me -- complete loss -- it was a value trap. I didnt play it right because i should have minimized loss (hard to accept and do sometimes). Anyway, I already lossed everything and at the time would cost more in fees to sell then it was worth, so i kept it on the books for years ... often reviewed as capital gain offset but never did. Then one day I wondered where that $50k gain was comming from ... dang stock rocked back to life lol. I don't think that happens often though.
You asked: those shares you bought in the $60 and are sitting on. How does Pro Shares go about charging you the expense fee on them? Once a month? When you sell them? ????? I'm still in the dark on WHEN and HOW they collect that expense fee.
The short answer is TQQQ is reballanced daily. There is a more complicated answer though ... not sure i can do it justice.. Decay is everyday but is visable over time. But if its $30, that is what get ... I do pay a small brokerage fee because it's an ETF but has nothing to do with it being TQQQ..
I'll doubt they'll put eggs in just one basket. I would say because non THC CBD is legal everywhere, so it just a biger market and thus oprotunity to grab market share.
Have to remember it still illegal federally to ship THC products across state lines ... still many hurdles that need to be won there. That means that THT product curently produced at big ridge has to stay in WA.
Ow forgot reason for post. So read this:: "Market participants were overall buyers of fund assets including both exchange traded funds and conventional funds for the week ended on August 24. The inflows on the week equated to $3.8B and marked the space’s second straight week of cash injections according to the latest Refinitiv Lipper fund-flow report."
Clearly there is bullish people out there in this bear market.
Yea, I'm still holding what I bought in $60+. Some was just an experiment and I wasn't looking at ever selling ... based on market index trajectory always being up long term. Experiment not going well at this point, but im years away. Im still sitting on cash -- dry powder for move ... just don't think it's time yet. I'll take a few months off and see where I stand when i return. Counting on your Nov prediction!
Ow yea, I can't wait to see the spin lol.
As far as interest rates go, we are about half of the historic average fed rate.. Depending on when you crunch the data, the average is around 6%. The last 20 years has done alot to keep the average fed rate down, to note fed rate exceeded 20% in the 80s. Good as long as we're below the average so they make a big deal of it. We are really just getting back to 2018 levels. But what the hay, causing panic in the market just means a lower entry level.
Problem I have is current inflation is caused by world wide supply side issues ... untill thoes issues are fixed we're going to see inflation regardless of interest rates -- it's simply supply and demand at work. Raising Interest rates can effect both supply and demand side pressures, but do we really want to crash the world's economy? The US looses that scenario as we don't produce what we need (understading there is diference between wants and needs).
Monday bound to be interesting ... I think the weekend warriors will bring it down further due to Friday's fear but my hope is a little rebound at end of day ... may not get that though!!!
Thoughts?
I'm sure they want improved market conditionhappen. Into elections ... not much going their way. I'm just not sure thay can make that happer,, that is, what they want and realities not always the same. But I've heard you say it, I'll note it, so well see if the PPT can make it happen.
"One of the days" is a Pink Floyd's song ... maybe kick back and listen while you wait.
Yes, so lumber prices ramped up due to covid lockdown and closed canadian border crossings. Part of supply side/chain issues. Note, most of US lumber comes from Canada. That was rise and im talking 3x rate. Supply chain is global issue and a ton of what we use is imported. Lumber no exception. I had bought a couple of 1×4 and 1/4 ply and paid premium for sure so know what you mean. But lumber prices have been droping over last 6-8 months or so. Why? Because borders are no longer closed, inventories increasing, the building material has come under pressure as mortgage rates surge and new home sales drop. Basically supply shortage of lumber is about over. At stores, they go by cost of inventory, thus, retail price is a laging indicator -- may still be still be high but as new inventories are bought cheaper, the price will go down seeking equilibrium of what quanties suppliers are willing to supply at what price consumers are willing to pay. I think that is why they initially called it transitory... but many issues remain, like energy cost so not fully transitory plus, interest and tax is also a cost and all costs must be passed on. Thus increasing costs add to inflation. In the macro global world, decreasing value of currency also adds costs.
Politicians are quick to claim credit of which they have done nothing or pass blame when they have ... no diference here I have to say.
This can be good or bad. Depends on $APE probably. Example: OXY gave out warrants @$22 in leu of dividends ... stock hit $70 plus so that is hefty return on these warrants. You can say that is dilution as warrants can be turned into common stock. OXY certainly not AMC but begs question, what is best $AMC or $APE? If it turns out to be $APE then would be good.