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Weekly Fertilizer Review
Urea prices move higher, with more upside possible
Published on: Jun 15, 2015
Nitrogen remains the most varied component of the fertilizer market as summer begins, with urea prices in the crosshairs for potential moves higher. Low crop prices around the world don't appear to be stifling demand much, with governments still ready to provide subsidies and financing for their growers.
Ammonia prices slipped a little lower again this week at the farmgate level, dropping almost $1 on average as dealers restocking inventory are taking advantage of lower prices this month at the Gulf. While retail prices average $670, the Gulf index for June is pegged around $408, a cost that leaves plenty of room for profit. Based on normal price relationships, retail charges should be averaging around $635, but that's toward the low end of the market on the Plains, which is running more in the $630 to $665 range. Terminal prices in those western areas dropped $20 to $560, so lower prices could be seen, though Corn Belt costs remain higher, both at the retail and wholesale level, with USDA reporting the average price in Illinois last week still at $730. Fundamentals continue to suggest lower prices but there's talk of firmer prices internationally that could limit further reductions this summer.
Urea prices moved higher on both wholesale and retail markets, with June swaps on the Gulf index up $12 by Friday to $341.50. That suggests an average retail price of nearly $490, and terminal costs upriver moved higher to catch up. Average retail prices gained more than $6 on the week to $456, with new offer sheets on the Plains typically running $465 or more, after popping $45 to $55 the past couple of weeks. Those higher charges reflect a wholesale market that gained almost $60 off April lows, buoyed by strong demand. India put out another tender on Friday that likely fed the market's move, and could keep China from lowering prices any. Traders on the swaps market appear to view this as a short-term situation however. Contracts for July are $32.50 lower, with September/October down to $292, almost $50 lower than the nearby. Still, that suggests retail prices might not get a whole lot cheaper than they already are, with $440 the projected value cost for fall.
UAN was firm last week on both wholesale and retail markets, with a few retail prices higher and lower as some late season application demand may be in play. The average cost for 28% moved slightly higher to $318, while USDA lowered its average cost in Illinois to $326.67. Wholesale costs were flat, with the Gulf index for 32% steady at $215. Swaps show little change into the end of the year, which suggests the price of 28% should be down to $290. But if other forms of nitrogen stay firm, UAN could be ready to follow suit.
Phosphates were choppy last week on the retail level. Costs for DAP seemed mostly unchanged, with 10-34-0 both higher and lower on the Plains, running $650 to $670. The average cost for DAP of $552 is $16 higher than our projection of fair retail value based on a Gulf price of $420, which was down $2 last week. Wholesale prices appear to be consolidating after a $65 move in April and May, waiting for India and Brazil to start buying again. Swaps suggest steady prices through August, with the market slightly lower into fall.
Potash prices fell again at terminal markets, with the Midwest cost down to $367.50. That translates into a fair value retail expense of $456, but average costs fell only slightly, to a little under $484. Prices in Brazil appear to be moving higher, which could limit discounts here in the U.S. this summer.
Weekly Fertilizer Review
Retail fertilizer prices play catch-up
Published on: Jun 8, 2015
International fertilizer markets experienced a turbulent year so far in 2015, hit with low crop prices, politics and volatile currency exchange rates. Retail prices here in the U.S., by contrast, were calm. That's starting to change as the season for application winds down, leaving some products in surplus and others squeezed.
Ammonia prices slipped a little lower this week at the farmgate level, dropping $4 a ton to $671 on average. Though costs remain at $700 and above in key states like Iowa and Illinois, charges on the Plains continue to ease, reflecting the big drop seen earlier at the Gulf. Offer sheets on the Plains are running mostly $630 to $665, but some this week slipped below $600. Terminal prices dropped last week, especially in the west, with the range now $580 to $610. Current fair value based on the wholesale market is around $635, and fundamentals suggest prices should be lower this summer, with a projected range between $545 and $600 retail. That forecast seems too low for this market, unless product accumulates as farmers decide to forgo fall application.
Urea prices moved higher gain last week at the retail level, with the average price up $5 to $450. Though some suppliers are $40 below that, others are early $40 above, with more upside possible. Global prices were mixed last week: The Gulf dropped $8.50 to $329, but costs out of the Black Sea were higher. River terminals here in the U.S. also posted increases as they try to catch up with urea costs that moved sharply higher this spring. In fact, fair value based on those costs is around $20 or more higher than the current average. As a result, even though the swaps market shows a $50 break into late summer and fall, that reduction would bring the current retail price down only $20, to $430. As with ammonia, fundamentals imply lower prices still, all the way down to $385, but the nitrogen market seems out of whack in a world where some governments are still subsidizing nutrients for their growers.
UAN eased again last week, falling around a $1 on the retail market for 28%, taking the average down to $317. Costs still seem expensive compared to the wholesale market, which was down sharply this spring after a big run up on ideas farmers would boost alternate N sources this year to cut costs. The index at the Gulf for 32% fell another $5 last week to $215, suggesting the price of 28% should be down to $290, with late summer contracts $5 cheaper. But as with the rest of the complex, that looks like heavy lifting.
Phosphates edged lower at the Gulf last week, with no indication so far that the global rise in prices of the past month or two is set to continue. Supplies are relatively tight worldwide, but buyers aren't bidding up prices with government spending constrained and profit margins thin. Retail prices in the U.S. were steady last week at $552 for DAP, a cost that's just $12 above our projected fair value. Swaps into the fall are flat, suggesting price declines may be modest at best. Fundamentals suggest lower prices this summer but other countries don't appear to be getting those price signals from the market.
Potash prices have been dead flat at the retail level most of this year, while wholesale prices eased lower. Though the Midwest terminal price rose $2.50 last week to $372.50, suppliers apparently are ready to hold their prices steady into the fall. The current average retail price of $484 should be around $20 lower according to wholesale costs, but any big declines are looking less likely unless one of the big companies decides to go after market share by dropping prices.
El Nino’s Return Raises Specter of Food Inflation Spike in Asia
by Enda Curran
June 7, 2015 — 3:00 PM PDT
Ling Ah Hong, a 35-year veteran of Malaysia’s palm-oil industry, remembers well the last time that the El Nino weather phenomenon wreaked havoc on food prices in Asia.
Inspecting his crop one day in 1997, Ling felt tinder-dry conditions underfoot and noticed palms with unopened leaves. “There were spot fires which burnt the trees with a lot of dry leaves such as rubber and cocoa,” said Ling, 63, who owns some plantations. “When the drought became full blown, some palm oil mills that didn’t have big water storage ran out of water.”
The result, for Ling and his peers across Malaysia and neighboring Indonesia, was a slump in palm-oil production that contributed to higher food prices. In Malaysia, inflation leapt more than 2 percentage points in 1998, to an eight-year high.
As climatologists warn that El Nino is returning for the first time in five years, farmers and policy makers in Asia are bracing for prolonged droughts and crop destruction that would send prices higher for everything from palm oil to rice.
For central banks in the region that are facing weakening expansions and the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve beginning to raise interest rates, the weather outlook adds another challenge. Low inflation has allowed nations from South Korea to India to cut borrowing costs to boost growth. That option may be about to evaporate.
Headache Risk
“Anything that pushes food prices materially higher in Asia has the potential to be a headache for central banks,” said Mark Walton, a Hong Kong-based economist at BNP Paribas SA. The El Nino of 2009-10 was less severe than the 1997-98 episode that killed 24,000 people and caused $34 billion in economic damage, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Countries vulnerable to an El Nino-related inflation outbreak include India, Indonesia and the Philippines, according to an analysis by Citigroup Inc. economists.
A study by the International Monetary Fund found that El Nino typically adds between 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points to inflation in India, Indonesia and Thailand. Food prices in those countries make up 48 percent, 33 percent and 34 percent of their respective inflation baskets.
China Demand
Central banks from those countries are among those that have been cutting interest rates as China’s slowing economy hurts commodity producers around Asia.
“If the disruption to Asian crop production is significant, this could result in sharp spikes for some agricultural commodity prices,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist in Singapore at IHS Global Insight.
It’s not yet clear how strong the El Nino effect will be, not every country would be affected in the same way, and the forecasters could be proven wrong. Previous episodes have turned out to be mild, and forecasts of possible El Nino development persisted through 2014 with neither the U.S. nor the Australian Bureau of Meteorology declaring it had occurred. This time, large food stock piles could help offset inflation pressures.
“Even with a strong El Nino, it is unlikely that world food prices will spike because stocks are still ample in many countries,” said Hiroyuki Konuma, assistant director-general and regional representative for Asia and the Pacific at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
India, Indonesia
Bank of America Merrill Lynch says only monetary policy in India and Indonesia may be affected. The impact on the rest of Asia “appears to be more muted,” it said in a note.
Even so, warning signs are emerging. More than half the provinces in the Philippines are suffering from a dry period, in a nation where inflation has been subdued. India’s government has warned of a deficient monsoon season and the FAO says a moderate-to-severe weather pattern will probably hurt grain production and shave 1.4 percent off wheat output in 2015-2016.
It’s enough to make central bankers nervous. Policy makers from Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to the Philippines’ Amando Tetangco have warned about the possible impact from weather effects.
The lack of space for interest-rate cuts can add further pain to an economy by elevating a nation’s exchange rate and hurting exporters. The risk of food-price inflation linked to an El Nino is increasing across most regions, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.
Farmers like Ling are worried.
“It’s still a little bit early to tell, but the indications from the weather forecasters seems to indicate that it could develop into a severe El Nino,” he said.
Weekly Fertilizer Review
Nitrogen prices start to soften
Published on: Jun 1, 2015
While the fertilizer market continues to send mixed signals about prices this summer, costs are starting to soften seasonally for some nutrients. Big deals aren't likely, however, as global demand remains resilient despite slow world economic growth and low crop prices.
Ammonia remains the weakest link of both the nitrogen and overall fertilizer complex. That doesn't mean it's cheap, however. Average retail costs dropped almost $2 last week to $676, as dealers react to big price reductions on international markets over the winter and spring. The current cost at the Gulf of $408 suggests an average farmgate cost of $640, a price that's only available at the low end of the market on the southwest Plains, where wholesale prices are running $525 to $600. Costs in the central and eastern Midwest remain higher, typically $700 or more. Low corn prices and lack of international demand suggest prices should be lower this summer, $550 to $640, but that much of a cutback seems unlikely. A big Ukraine supplier, the fourth largest producer of ammonia in the world, last week said it was forced to close two more plants, on top of two previously shuttered. While the new facilities are not in eastern Ukraine, where fighting is ongoing, political conflict in the rest of the country remains an issue.
Urea prices spent April and May moving the opposite direction of ammonia, moving sharply higher on international markets thanks to aggressive buying from big consumers like India and somewhat restrained selling by China. If problems in Ukraine don't escalate, the market could be headed lower into summer and fall. At least, that's what players in the swaps market appear to be thinking. Though the Gulf index was at $337.50 last week, the forward market has it falling $20 by the end of the month, with August-September contracts down to $285. Costs at that level would still likely produce retail charges above fundamental fair value of $390, but the premium would be narrower than it has been. Average retail prices actually edged slightly higher last week, hitting $443.75, though costs on the southwest Plains are typically running $410 to $460.
UAN prices moved lower for the start of June trading on wholesale markets, with the Gulf index for 32% down $7.50 to $220. Swaps are a little lower into the rest of summer, but contracts into the fall remain basically flat around $215, which translates into a 28% price around $287 to $293. Current retail prices, however, remain firm, with the average a few pennies higher around $320 as demand for side dressing continues.
Phosphates typically begin firming in June, a trend that lasts into August. While that price increase began earlier than normal this year, the market is giving mixed signals about whether it will continue to play out this summer. Big buyers like Brazil and India are expected to be back in the market soon, with supplies fairly tight. The index for DAP at the Gulf rose $1.50 last week to $422.50, but swaps into the summer and fall are $5 to $10 lower. Average retail prices were up $1 to $552, a price that's not far from fair value. Fundamentals suggest lower prices this summer but other countries don't appear to be getting those price signals from the market.
Potash prices eased a little again this week at the retail level, with the average dropping $1.25 to $483.75. Current Midwest terminal prices of $370 suggest fair value should be a little lower, down to $460, while fundamentals for summer indicate the market should run around $440. With demand internationally firm, prices are unlikely to fall that much however, unless a price war breaks out between the big international suppliers.
Download the complete retail fertilizer report using the link below.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Adviser. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets and feature price forecasts for key crop inputs. A journalist with 38 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.
Islamic State looks to captured phosphate mines for funding
By Haaretz | May 27, 2015 | 7:41 PM
The jihadist group has also published a Russian-language magazine, targeted at attracting Muslim fighters from the Caucuses.
The Islamic State (also known as ISIS and ISIL) has published photos of what it says are a new source of funding for its global activities: giant phosphate mines in Syria, the Vocativ website reports.
The Khnaifess mines, which are situated along the main highway between Damascus and Palymra, are the second largest phosphate mines in the country. The ancient city of Palmyra was overrun by ISIS last week,
Syria is among the world’s largest exporters of the rock, though the ongoing civil war has marred its ability to mine and market its supply. In 2011, the mines were responsible for about 1.6 percent of the world’s supply of phosphate rock and ranked ninth in the world in terms of the volume of its production.
It is unclear if ISIS has the required logistics and expertise to operate the mines, let alone export the phosphate, given that a significant percentage of Syria’s phosphates is bought by the EU.
Nevertheless, the group's propaganda branch has published a series of photos of the mines as the latest example of its growing power. In the past, the group has advertised for engineers to come on the oil refineries it has captured, in some cases offering salaries starting at $200,000.
Meanwhile, the ISIS propaganda branch has published the first issue of a new propaganda magazine written in Russian. Named “Istok” (the source) the magazine targets would-be Islamic State jihadis from the Caucasus.
Russian fighters from the Caucasus are prominent in the ranks of the group's foreign fighters, with an estimated 1,000 Russian-speaking jihadis currently fighting in Syria and Iraq.
The first issue of the magazine is mostly dedicated to the stories of Russian jihadis, explaining how the fighters from the Caucasus ended up joining ISIS after spending months trying to find a “proper” ally in the region who shared their goals and agenda.
Brics lining up to support phosphate prices, says PhosAgro
16:26 UK, 29th May 2015, by Agrimoney.com
PhosAgro flagged conditions "supportive" for phosphate prices as, unveiling a jump in profits, it highlighted the potential for helpful dynamics not just from India, but the other Bric countries too - Brazil, China and Russia.
The Russia-based group underlined the improved prospects for India, the top phosphate importer, that it stressed on Thursday, when unveiling a contract with state-run Indian Potash to supply 1.35m tonnes of fertilizers between 2015-2018.
"We are seeing substantial improvements in India," said Andrey Guryev, the PhosAgro chairman and chief executive.
India's imports of diammonium phosphate, or DAP, a major form of the fertilizer, which have "improved dramatically already" this year may reach 5.5m-6m tonnes over 2015 as a whole, up from the "very weak purchases" last year of about 3.5m tonnes.
"Strong pricing environment"
However, PhosAgro flagged other reasons too for what it called a "strong phosphate pricing environment", with Russia potentially to see "solid" fertilizer demand, thanks to a government far support programmes and signs of broader recovery evident in the reviving rouble.
The rouble has recovered some 30% against the dollar over the past four months.
Brazilian demand faced a seasonal increase, with PhosAgro noting "significantly higher activity" in this market over the past month.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, Chinese phosphate exports, undermined early in the year by a "focus on" domestic demand, may remain curtailed thanks to a government drive to improve the efficiency of the country's fertilizer industry.
The measures "may result in continued declines in [phosphate] exports from China as a result of the closure of old and inefficient production units, as well as higher domestic use of better-quality fertilizers", the company said.
Revenues, earnings up
"Looking ahead, I believe supply-demand fundamentals will be supportive of DAP prices," Mr Guryev said.
DAP prices, as measured in the key Tampa export market, averaged $483 a tonne in the January-to-March period, up from $459 a tonne the quarter before.
The comments came as PhosAgrop unveiled earnings of 14.2bn roubles ($228m) for the quarter, up from 1.9bn roubles ($55m) a year before, on revenues up 71% at 50.2bn roubles.
Mr Guryev said that the performance, "the best quarterly results PhosAgro has achieved since my appointment as chief executive", would allow an increase in the group's dividend payout ratio.
The group on Thursday unveiled a dividend of 48 roubles per share, or 16 roubles per depositary receipt.
PhosAgro depositary receipts stood 1.9% higher at $13.15 in afternoon deals in London.
India’s appetite for fertilizers beats expectations
Cecilia Jamasmie | May 29, 2015
Phosagro had sold practically no fertilizer to India over the last two years. But now the company expects to increase exports to the Asian country by more than 60% to 6.5-7 million tons.
Russia’s Phosagro (LON:PHOR), the world’s third-largest producer of phosphate fertilizers, has taken a page of U.S.-based rival Mosaic’s (NYSE:MOS) books by projecting a jump in Indian demand for crop nutrients this year, beyond initial expectations.
According to chief executive Andrei Guryev, India’s “explosive demand” for phosphate fertilizers may make of 2015 the best year for the company since at least 2008, he said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this month.
A day earlier, Mosaic’s CEO Jim Prokopanko told investors that Indian demand was exceeding the company’s “own bullish estimates.”
Both comments proved to true shortly after as Phosagro signed Thursday a three-year supply contract with Indian Potash (IPL) to deliver 1.35 million tons of phosphoric fertilizer over the course of three years, from 2015 to 2018.
India is the world’s No.2 consumer of phosphate fertilisers and the largest importer of Diammonium phosphate (DAP), the most widely used of them. Demand, however, has been depressed in recent years, helping to trigger a slump in prices in India from a high of $660 per tonne in 2011 to around $485 this week.
Phosagro had sold practically no fertilizer to India over the last two years. But now the company expects to increase exports to the Asian country by more than 60% to 6.5-7 million tons.
Because of that drop in demand, Phosagro had sold practically no fertilizer to India over the last two years. But now the company expects to increase exports to the Asian country by more than 60% to 6.5-7 million tons.
India has already purchased more than 2.2m tonnes of DAP for delivery in the first half of this year, up from 0.9m tonnes a year earlier, according to Phosagro.
The company is not the only fertilizer producer that has recently scored a supply deal with India. On May 1, fellow Russian firm Uralkali (MCX:URKA), the world's largest potash producer, signed a one-year agreement with IPL that will see the miner selling India 800,000 metric tonnes of potassium chloride, including optional deliveries, until March 2016.
The nation’s demand comeback follows reports of imports to Brazil and China also expected to jump in the second half of the year.
hi mike, yeah this is being quietly bought up and it looks like the same person or company doing it for whatever reasons they have. i cant wait to see the news they are banking on. i sure would like to know the clearskies we have above after 3-5 cent mark. we could be talkin 10-15 cents real quick here. cheers, paydirt
Weekly Fertilizer Review
Ammonia markets gets mixed signals
Published on: May 26, 2015
Farmers may be wrapping up corn planting in the U.S., but prices of many fertilizer products remain firm. International demand still appears good despite weak crop prices and suppliers are avoiding discounts.
Ammonia prices were mixed last week, reflecting the state of corn planting regionally. The latest survey in Iowa by USDA showed prices jumping $23 a ton to an average of $740.50 after a fast spring season. That's almost $100 higher than the low end of the price range on the southwest Plains, where heavy rains likely mean corn planting is over in many areas. Terminal prices in the eastern Midwest were steady at $620 while the cost to the west dropped below $600, reflecting weak international prices. Despite the usual supply chain issues around the world, the Gulf index used to settle swaps for June is $13.60 lower, around $408. Based on that cost, retail prices should be running around $640 or less – the average, however is still around $678 due to the wide range around the country. Weak fundamentals suggest ammonia could fall to $560 to $640 retail this summer, though the low end of that range may be out of reach in most area.
Urea prices continue to edge higher on both retail and wholesale markets, though farmgate costs this spring haven't risen nearly as much as international indexes. Average retail prices were up less than $1 to $443, with new offers around $8 to $12 higher last week. The index for settling swaps at the Gulf rose just $1 last week to $338, but that's nearly $75 higher than it traded just six weeks ago. As a result, dealers restocking now likely must raise prices sharply while others raise prices on remaining inventory. Their window, however, may be short, with contracts for June settlement around $20 lower and November back to $276. That fall cost is in line with fundamentals that suggest retail prices at $400 or lower.
UAN was the quiet end of the nitrogen complex last week. Retail prices for 28% were steady around $320, while the index for 32% at the Gulf slipped 50 cents to $227.50. Swaps are trading around $12.50 cheaper for summer, which suggests fair value around $288 for 28% if the retail market corrects in similar fashion to the way the wholesale market has traded this spring.
Phosphates were firm after the latest industry data showed inventories up only slight last month in the U.S. due to steady demand and production. That was 17% more than the previous year but still tight enough to keep costs at the Gulf rising. The swaps index for DAP was up $11 to $422.50, though forward contracts are mostly steady through the summer around that price. Retail prices remain flat at $551, after trading in a narrow range from late winter through spring. Current wholesale costs suggest the market is fairly valued. Fundamentals continue to point to lower prices, but unless big buyers like India balk the market may not cheapen much into summer.
Potash prices eased a little this week, following wholesale costs lower. The average price of $485 hasn't changed much since harvest, though Midwest terminal prices of $370 are $35 off winter highs and fair value is down to around $460. Fundamentals suggest even lower prices, down to around $445, which could happen if international suppliers cut prices more. Inventories last month were up sharply from levels seen last fall, though they're still below year ago levels.
Download the complete retail fertillizer report using the link below.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Adviser. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets and feature price forecasts for key crop inputs. A journalist with 38 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.
hi mike, its interesting that canaccord is on the bid because i think this is a Canadian broker and that might mean the F&F buying thingy. im just guessing about what might be going on but my guess is as good as anyone elses:)~ have a good holiday weekend, paydirt
In the immortal words of that legendary investor SPARK...
"Kick back and smokem if ya gotem"
hi mike, yeah no worries mate... we have waited this long whats a little more:)~~~~ uno before all this started i really never thought much about china and now its always on my mind. cheers, paydirt
Global Lead mine supply exceeded demand by 11 kt during Q1 2015
May 19, 2015 09:22 GMT Source:Scrap Monster
Author: Paul Ploumis
19 May 2015 Last updated at 03:26:18 GMT
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) has released the preliminary data for world lead supply and demand during the first quarter of 2015. The provisional data indicates that the lead mine supply has marginally declined by almost 0.9% year-on-year during the initial three month period of the year.
According to ILZSG, the world supply of refined lead metal exceeded demand by 11kt during the first quarter of the year. The total reported stock levels dropped by 10 kt during the period. Meantime, LME stock levels rose during Jan-Mar ’15.
The overall lead mine supply during Q1 2015 totaled 1.146 million tons, in comparison with 1.156 million tons during Q1 last year. The falling mine output from Australia has contributed to the 0.9% year-on-year decline in global lead mine supply. On the other hand, the mine supply from Peru and the US increased during the quarter.
The global refined lead metal production declined by 2.3% during Q1 this year. This was primarily on account of lowered production from China and disruption of operations at La Oroya plant in Peru during the month of June last year.
The global demand for refined lead metal witnessed a decline of 2.7% during the quarter. The apparent usage of refined metal by China and the US fell by 4.6% and 6.2% respectively. The apparent lead usage by the European region too dropped by 2.5%.
ILZSG statistics indicate that the lead mine supply during the month of March alone totaled 379,300 tonnes. The global refined lead metal production during the month totaled 859,100 tonnes. The apparent lead usage totaled 854,600 tonnes during March this year.
Weekly Fertilizer Review
Wholesale nitrogen costs show increasing volatility
Published on: May 18, 2015
While U.S. farm-level fertilizer markets remain fairly quiet despite heavy rains raising questions about planting delays and nitrogen losses, international markets continue to show surprising volatility. Low crop prices haven't discouraged demand for some products, though others appear more affected.
Ammonia prices remained fairly quiet this spring at the farmgate, but larger moves are still showing up on international markets. Prices out of the Black Sea dropped around $13.50 this week, following a similar drop at the Gulf at the start of May. The expense of Black Sea product is more than $200 below last fall's peak, taking the cost of imports below the current $422 Gulf swaps prices. Those costs translate into a retail charge of around $645 to $685, suggesting average prices of $677 aren't far from fairly valued. Unfortunately, that means retail prices may not see much of a pullback this summer for growers interested in securing supplies for fall application. Fundamentals, including lower corn prices and acreage, suggest costs should be down to the $575 to $585 level in July. But such a move doesn't seem likely unless the market really craters.
Urea prices continue to head in the opposite direction from ammonia, with price hikes showing up at both the wholesale and retail level. Supplies remain tight and demand internationally is good, with Chinese manufacturers unwilling to cut prices to increase volumes. India still needs to buy more, but is unwilling so far on its end to ante up. Swaps at the Gulf were up $14 to 337, putting them up $72.50 since the start of April. Forwards continue to point to lower prices, with June at $324.50 and August down to $295. The high cost on the spot markets equates to a retail price all the way to $480, but actual costs are cheaper, reflecting expenses earlier. Updated offer sheets on the Plains are running around $450, while the average increased around $1 to $441.50 this week. Fundamentals project to costs around $400 this summer, but the international market will have to cool off more than indicated for that to happen.
UAN was mixed this week. Average retail costs edged slightly lower but remain around $318 for 28%, while the cost of 32% in the Gulf swaps market was at $228. The wholesale cost translates into a retail price of around $300, with summer swaps suggesting prices could break to $285 if demand stays soft. Summer swaps appear to be firming, suggesting the market's pullback this spring could be over after a correction of almost $50.
Phosphates are starting to show signs of a seasonal bottom on wholesale markets, though costs likely are attractive enough to entice much buying by farmers. DAP typically weakens twice a year at the Gulf, after buying is complete in the spring and the fall. While retail costs were steady last week at $551 on average, swaps at the Gulf were up $11.50 to $421, with another $10 added on to August/September offers. DAP has been fairly steady internationally this year, with product still subsidized in India and demand good elsewhere. Fundamentals suggest prices should be $75 lower this summer, but that may only happen if buyers around the world balk.
Potash prices eased a little this week, as the market continues its slow drift lower. Most price adjustments this year have been small, however, a few dollars at a time. Average retail prices remain around $485, though the Midwest terminal prices was $7.50 lower at $375. Wholesale costs suggest fair value around $470 to $485, with fundamentals projecting prices this summer down to $445 if the market stays soft.
Download the complete retail fertillizer report using the link below.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Adviser. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets and feature price forecasts for key crop inputs. A journalist with 38 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.
well someone has scooped up a little over a million shares since they started buying.
hi mike, i would also think that its going to be hard to get shares out of anyone left here and L2T i think is sold out. i guess the family could sell a few but we will see what happens. i want to see production at the mine, a move to hong kong along with a uplist to that exchange and partnerships with big companies over there for whatever needs they have for importing or exporting of anything that makes us money:)~
friends and family plan.....
I agree spark, this steady buying sure looks like the f&f plan and lets hope the news that they are setting up for is good. cheers, paydirt
Daniels Corporate Advisory Company, Inc. (DCAC) Negotiates With Several Institutional Investors
May 18, 2015
OTC Disclosure & News Service
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NEW YORK, May 18, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Daniels Corporate Advisory Company, Inc. (OTCQB:DCAC) announces that management and select advisory board members are negotiating with several institutional investors on a growth modeling "Assignment." Daniels developed a unique corporate review model, specifically designed for the growth acceleration of the nano and micro-cap companies. Public or private companies, each have their individual market niche from sales, earnings, and product attributes. Daniels, along with the institutional investor whose portfolio is under advisory, will implement a unique portfolio review on each portfolio position ranking them in terms of the best candidates for expansion and then the most likely market niches for their individual maximum growth. This modeling and analytic evaluations, in turn, should offer growth acceleration to the top target portfolio company increasing the overall ROI-"Return on Investment" of the Institutional Investors entire portfolio holdings.
Upon reaching accelerated growth matrix, the assignment may continue passed the initial review/modeling assignment at that time with DCAC then advises on the appropriateness of incubation within Daniels of a new product or new marketing method for the chosen market niche of the top portfolio candidate company. This "sales/marketing agency" relationship allows Daniels to incubate the selected candidate within its corporate structure, build it through network contacts in Sales/Marketing and eventually spin it off as an independent public company. The market cap of the candidate for growth acceleration enjoys a public valuation, instead of a private one; the difference can be significant. The end result, the ROI of the individual portfolio company, whose product/service is chosen, rises significantly along with the overall ROI of the Institutional Investor's entire portfolio. The portfolio company chosen from the Institutional Investor retains a controlling equity interest in the newly-launched public company.
In the very competitive business of "Asset Management," the slightest increase of ROI above that of the average industry norm allows for fundraising on a much larger scale. The potential for significant increase in value on only a small amount of assets within an existing portfolio company could make the difference between a small Asset Manager gaining new money or not.
"DCAC" benefits as well; posting monthly consulting fee income and at assignment completions, a success fee equal to a percentage of the incremental value increase in market cap the client achieves over the 6 to 12 month assignment.
Before the conclusion of May, 2015, Senior Management anticipates an "Assignment" from current negotiations.
All progress on every phase of Daniels ("DCAC") Business Model will continue to be highlight on the Cable TV Show "New To Wall Street." Daniels current segment is due to air on a local Cable Station on Monday, May 27, 2015. Please check your listings for Station and viewing time.
CONTACT: Arthur Viola
art.viola@danielscorporateadvisoryco.com
I say move the headquarters to Hong Kong and uplist the stock there on the Hong Kong Exchange. i think we would see some fireworks then:)~
this ones getting a little frisky also "SGGV" for the last few days. no news but someones buying like there will be. take good care, paydirt
oh yeah without a doubt... and if we get a nice juicy PR then katy bar the door time....i really think that things are moving along now and this summer is going to be alot of fun here. gla, paydirt
silver if we get a mil or 2 in volume we could see 10 to 15 cents no problem.
another wonderful day here.......
http://quotes.wsj.com/SGGV/company-people/executive-profile/14347198
The changing world of phosphate rock
By Argus May 11, 2015 | 12:20 pm EDT
With high grade reserves of phosphate rock gradually depleting around the world, the average quality of phosphate rock produced has plummeted dramatically. Argus FMB has produced a strategy report which highlights the repercussions. The report is titlted “World Phosphate Rock Outlook to 2029.”
Poorer ore continues to be mined and the content of P205 falls, while the content of unwelcome components increases.
By far the most obvious consequence has been the leap in related costs to mine and process it for fertilizer and manufacturing phosphoric acid. There are substantial resources of phosphate-containing minerals remaining, but they lay untapped due to high costs.
Any constraint on the supply of phosphate will be determined not by resource availability, but by the cost of exploration, the conversion into plant available P205 and by the delivery to the market, according to the report.
Key findings:
A number of significant rock producers are looking at new mines to replace or extend production.
A great deal of exploratory work and project scoping is being undertaken by junior mining companies, spurred on by the 2007-2008 price boom and the peak phosphate debate.
Both merchant tonnage and P2O5 content of the phosphate rock traded have fallen in the past 20 years.
The main driver for the trade of merchant rock will continue to be phosphoric acid production. Many of the existing non-captive acid plants are more than 30 years old and face threats to their long-term survival.
The report’s availability and cost is at discover more about the strategy report
Weekly Fertilizer Review
Published on: May 12, 2015
Fertilizer prices shift as planting nears end
While farmers are headed down the home stretch of spring planting, good demand for fertilizer around the world despite weak crop prices is firming some costs, with adjustments filtering down to the retail level for some products. Fundamentals continue to suggest cheaper values this summer, a hope in some cases confirmed by swaps traders.
Ammonia is still one of the quietest segments of the complex, at least at the farmgate, with our average stuck in a $10 range since harvest despite a dramatic reduction at the wholesale level. The average retail price dropped around 75 cents this week to $677, as a few dealers made adjustments with the prime application season over. But terminal prices rose by $5 to $7.50 to move into the $605 to $620 range, a much larger than normal premium to the $422 Gulf price. Costs look like they should move lower into summer with fundamentals suggesting a range between $560 and $645. But lack of carryover supply in the country could limit savings to the high end of that range.
Urea prices edged higher at the retail level this week, but the $441 average masks hefty increases at some locations that updated offer sheets. Some retail prices rose by as much as $25 a ton, reflecting the move of almost $50 on global markets this spring. The Gulf price of $323 used to settle swaps last week was up another $4.50 on Monday as buying from India continues to mount. Chinese sellers aren't dumping product on the market, forcing buyers to search for supplies at higher prices. The swaps market predicts the rally won't have legs: June contracts are $21 lower and October is down to $280.Those values suggest steady prices at the retail level, which hasn't risen much this spring despite the gains downstream. Fundamentals continue to point to even lower costs, but only if demand dries up and China becomes a more aggressive seller.
UAN was steady at the retail level this week, and an increase in wholesale prices could mean the market is trying to stabilize following its recent pullback. While average retail prices for 28% stayed around $318, swaps for 32% at the Gulf were up $5.50 to $226. Gulf prices slid $35 to $40 this year, but swaps for summer suggest even softer prices are ahead, with that market down to around $200. That could take the cost of 28% to $275 to $280.
Phosphates saw little movement by retail prices, with DAP steady at $551, about $10 higher than fair value given the current market. Wholesale costs did edge higher, with the Gulf up $2 to $411 and July swaps at $427.50. Though fundamentals suggest summer costs for gap to farmers should run below $470, demand internationally remains good with manufacturers not cutting prices a lot and some disruptions to supplies from North Africa.
Potash prices were unchanged last week, keeping the retail average around $485 in a market that's been very quiet this spring. Big international buyers like China and India are keeping prices firm, though the end to the peak demand season in the U.S. softened wholesale prices here, taking the terminal cost down $2.50 to $282.50. That suggests a retail trade around $475. Weak crop prices suggest costs could ease to $435 to $445 at the farmgate level, but that may be too big a pullback given the firm tone to the international market.
hi mike, yeah it looks like someones buying some right here. my gut tells me that chris is workin hard doing something, just not sure what:)~ lets hope we see a pr soon filled with all kinds of goodies for us to talk about, god knows its been far to long without one. cheers, paydirt
nice to come home to this move this evening. the buying must be insiders i would guess. i hope it just keeps on going north past the 50 cent high right on into the dollars. gla, paydirt
Well first thing that stands out is his posting history...
Anyone who has a question about what this guy is up too, needs to look at the posts made by him. Most all are the exact same as the one here with no links or proof made by him in any of them. Im not sure what his thing is but this alone is a good start in finding that he is full of chit!! I think my effort with this poster (basher) is a waste of time. cheers,paydirt
I guess my question is, WHY?? i will have to do some digging into his claims just to know myself if he is full of chit or not. I will report back to the board what i find. He said alot in his post with no links for backup and or proof. anyhow lets see what i find out. GLA, paydirt
UNO what chaos, the more i think about it, they seem to be making all the right moves to be a dollar land stock. i dont know when but this guy know what to do to make it happen IMHO!! cheers, paydirt
Yeah just think about this for a min.......
No one is watching this 1 and with a small amount of shares out just wait for folks to start hearing about us with these programs. I think this is going to be a fun 1. GLA, paydirt
Hey Mr MET..........
Daniels Corporate Advisory Company, Inc. (DCAC) Interviewed on "New To The Street," a Financial News Program Appearing on Major Cable Networks
NEW YORK, May 6, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Daniels Corporate Advisory Company, Inc. (OTCQB:DCAC) announces it has been chosen by a top financial media relations firm to appear on "New To The Street," a financial news program, airing on major cable networks like A&E and Fox Business.
DCAC's first interview was recently produced and is now being edited for release later this month. Airing times and dates will be forthcoming on this first televised interview which provides a broad overview of the Corporation and its business objectives. Subsequent appearances are to follow over the coming months, detailing specific business accomplishments.
This first show reveals how the DCAC Team works on cost-effective pricing and achieves its biggest payday's when its clients reach their optimum goal. This process could take as long as one year; however multiple client projects can be simultaneously managed. Senor management believes this mode of operating with achieve maximum results for the client and Daniels shareholders. For example: Should Daniels Team start a Corporate Strategy Assignment with a client whose market valuation is $2 Million and through Daniels collective efforts the client achieves a $7 Million market value over a selected time period, Daniels final Consulting Fee would be a percentage of the incremental market value. In the example, Daniels success fee would be based on the $5 Million incremental value and be paid-out of the financing and cash flows of the now potentially much larger client.
As DCAC's business and financial modes for growth accelerate, proven milestones met, top corporate strategy talent added and results of early stage clients are released, viewers, shareholders and other interested parties can follow these "New To The Street" televised updates on its Corporate progress.
For more information, visit: http://www.danielscorporateadvisoryco.com
Here's the news......
Daniels Corporate Advisory Company, Inc. (DCAC) Interviewed on "New To The Street," a Financial News Program Appearing on Major Cable Networks
NEW YORK, May 6, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Daniels Corporate Advisory Company, Inc. (OTCQB:DCAC) announces it has been chosen by a top financial media relations firm to appear on "New To The Street," a financial news program, airing on major cable networks like A&E and Fox Business.
DCAC's first interview was recently produced and is now being edited for release later this month. Airing times and dates will be forthcoming on this first televised interview which provides a broad overview of the Corporation and its business objectives. Subsequent appearances are to follow over the coming months, detailing specific business accomplishments.
This first show reveals how the DCAC Team works on cost-effective pricing and achieves its biggest payday's when its clients reach their optimum goal. This process could take as long as one year; however multiple client projects can be simultaneously managed. Senor management believes this mode of operating with achieve maximum results for the client and Daniels shareholders. For example: Should Daniels Team start a Corporate Strategy Assignment with a client whose market valuation is $2 Million and through Daniels collective efforts the client achieves a $7 Million market value over a selected time period, Daniels final Consulting Fee would be a percentage of the incremental market value. In the example, Daniels success fee would be based on the $5 Million incremental value and be paid-out of the financing and cash flows of the now potentially much larger client.
As DCAC's business and financial modes for growth accelerate, proven milestones met, top corporate strategy talent added and results of early stage clients are released, viewers, shareholders and other interested parties can follow these "New To The Street" televised updates on its Corporate progress.
For more information, visit: http://www.danielscorporateadvisoryco.com
we have a pulse this morning:)~
hey all, anything shakin over here???
one more thing........
They must be very busy with whatever Chris is going to do going forward and the fact that they didn't even PR the permit and haven't had news for months tells me we could be in for a doooooosie of a PR when they are ready, at least that's what im hoping for. gla, paydirt
hi flat, i just saw those stories and thought them to be of interest to the industry in general. in the back of my mind ive thought about the battery deal before and not sure of the exact type of phosphate used but that company that makes those are in china. anyhow as far as the wait here goes, lets hope its sooner rather than later:)~
BYD brings electric buses to LA Metro with Iron-Phosphate Batteries
Posted on May 1, 2015 by Gilbert Shar
LAelectricbusThe Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro) received their first five battery electric transit buses from BYD. Los Angeles Metros now the first major transit property in the US to begin electrifying their fleet with zero-emissions buses.
http://www.autoconnectedcar.com/2015/05/byd-brings-electric-buses-to-la-metro-with-iron-phosphate-batteries/
http://www.byd.com/na/auto/FeBattery.html
China adapts to ‘new normal’ of dwindling high grade phosphate reserves
By IM STAFF
Published: Monday, 27 April 2015
The decline in the amount of mineable high grade phosphate rock in China has prompted the country’s government to look at new ways of conserving its resources, which have included export quotas, cuts to domestic taxes and processing innovation – but more will need to be done to protect the industry from becoming uncompetitive in the next decade.
China’s high-grade phosphate rock reserves could be exhausted within the next fifteen years at current consumption rates, which may lead to rising costs and a severe loss of competitiveness in the country’s phosphorus chemicals industry unless action is taken.
sure looks like this bottomed out at a penny. i think we could see 10 cents before the years out. gla, paydirt