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Well, the bit of rise in home sales and some solidification into a resolution of the "toxic asset" problem, not to mention probably a generally held feeling of the market being oversold with money waiting on the sidelines gives room for a bit of
c a u t i o u s
o p t i m i s m !
Or so we can hope. And AIM for the best result!
It shows how bad things have got when Harry Browne is right. He is somewhere between the survivalists and the tinfoil hat brigade.
The late Mr. Browne may well be a moderate. If, on the other hand the views of Lyndon LaRouche become mainstream, that would be telling. Telling of what I'm not sure, but telling, that IS for sure!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyndon_LaRouche
It seems that any attempt to fine tune AIM involves curve fitting in other words adjusting to certain market conditions... But who knows what market conditions will be in the future? Any change must improve safety or improve returns in all markets in order to be valid.
Ganaraska,
Good points. Though it must be noted that Lichello himself was not adverse to changing AIM from his original 50/50 ratio to 80/20 stock/cash by the time he got to the fourth edition of the book. So his "curve fitting" was the realization that in the bull of the 1990's starting with too much cash was counterproductive. Hence the development of the Iwave and now the Vwave to better gauge a sense of where the market is right now to start an AIM program, rather than picking some arbitrary fixed ratio. Other developments have added to the system in a beneficial way such as using separate Buy and Sell SAFE values.
Still, there are those who go strictly by-the-book and there's nothing wrong with that. AIM variants shouldn't be totally discounted, though, either, imo.
Best,
AIMster
You can trust him to advise you honestly . . I think. . .but I advise you never to give the control of your investment decisions out of your hands. Make sure you understand every step you make so that if it does not pan out, as you were sure it would, you will not blame The System.(emphasis added).
Conrad,
Well said. In fact the part I quoted above is the most basic investment advice and often the least appreciated. Just ask all the people who trusted Bernie Madoff and similar scammers to manage their money for them instead of doing it themselves. No one will care more about your money than you will. The first lesson that too many forgot.
Best,
AIMster
I was referring to the S&P 500 but the Dow works just as well. They go up and down together.
Thanks for the clarification. I had thought so, but nice to get it confirmed, so to speak.
The more sophisticated the analysis the more likely it is going to lead to ruin.
Exactly. Taken to extreme you end up with something like Ed Downs' Nirvana Systems system which attempts to apply all kinds of system parameters to see what's working (or not) and base a recommendation from there. The theory being that it will be adaptive as market conditions change, as opposed to applying one single formula and expecting it to work in any and all market conditions. There may have been some improvements, and the goal seems laudable enough, though the realization of it in the real world is tantamount to the Quest for the "Holy Grail."
I favor the simplicity of AIM and related variants.
n my previous post I meant to say 20 week and 50 week moving average on a weekly chart.
Is that on a per-stock basis or against a common index such as the S&P 500 or the Dow?
Thanks,
AIMster
Which begs the question of whether if you analysed all possible time periods and scalings and averaged the overall result from all of those, whether you'd get an indication of the likely projected view across all chartists. You might be able to predict the overall likely opinion and trade the likely reaction. Just a thought!
Hi, Clive,
On such hopes are many a crystal ball polished. The question is without access to a supercomputer would you be able to analyze all the permutations fast enough to gain significant advantage enough to be ahead of what the market will do anyway? Further, given how the market's been spiking up or down in reaction to various news developments you could have the correct answer but some news story comes along, totally upending your otherwise correct prediction. Would you be able to be aware of that and figure it into future predictions?
Vector Vest tries to do some of this by having a "stock" in their database of which the value is derived from looking at the universe of all the stocks in the market that they track. Their theory is that the direction of this tracking stock should mirror the direction of the market overall. Dr. Bart DiLiddo, Ph.D is the "brain" behind it and their literature boasts of arcane formulas that will calculate their parameters, and in so doing help you transmute your hard-earned lead into gold. They offer a 5-week trial and an ongoing cost of $59/month to keep up with their data. I tried it several years ago and found that it was better suited to people who want to run what-if tests and cherry-pick the results. With such providers I always ask the question, "if they've really found a way for consistently making money in the market, wouldn't they keep it to themselves and become fabulously rich?" How much do they make from actually using their system, versus getting people hooked on a subscription? Whilst I mention Vector Vest in particular, the generalities apply to any and all providers of such ongoing subscription based "systems." If you can't invest without their system, then something is wrong with the system.
This is where AIM, as a reactive, rather than as a predictive system, shines. The business plan model is ready to have the sales department go to work if the market's going up, the purchasing department ready for when the market goes down. Simple. No ongoing monthly costs, minimal disruption of time if truly checking once a month. Doesn't get much easier than that.
Best,
AIMster
Interesting article in the NY Times of where Science meets Wall Street, well, kinda-sorta, anyway:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/10/science/10quant.html?em=&pagewanted=all
My plan is to divide the ammount I will invest in each fund into 3-4 parts and invest the parts gradually. Also plan to have the cash amount equal to VWave. I know we will hit a bottom at some point but my stomach turns over when I wonder when. What a wretched time to be investing! Or will it be a major opportunity? Hmmmmmmmm-
Hi, Cindy,
Your plan sounds reasonable. As to the point at which we hit bottom, as Dr. Who might put it, "well, that's a bit of a question then, isn't it"? Being a time lord he might have an advantage, but he's usually too busy dealing with Daleks and other nasties to worry about making a fortune in the stock market. Probably considers it too much of a purely human endeavor. The new remake of the classic British series is very well done and can be seen on BBC America and the Sci-fi channel. Makes for good escapism in all the current uncertainty. But then, so does "House" with British actor Hugh Laurie working the show with the most un-British of accents. I'd love to see them get Rowan Atkinson in for a House episode as they both worked together in "Black Adder." - So much for my foray into television, now back to our regular AIM show...
On paper I'm sitting on losses, but am using the time to fill in lowering the average cost. I consider this time to be like charging up a capacitor, building up potential for discharge later once the market decides to go back up. If it decides to go back up. - But, the longer in the doldrums, the more potential built up to be realized later. Not as exciting as contemplating one's navel, in terms of a patience discipline, but one could take to thumb-twiddiling too, I suppose. Plan the trade and trade the plan. This is the sort of time that measures us as contrarians - to buy when the rest of the world sells, then to appear foolish later, selling as they're buying the rocket that long ago left the launching pad, only to start heading back down to earth sooner or later...
Hang in there and keep the faith!
Best,
AIMster
A few questions. I started buying OIL at $21 and below $40 a barrel. I thought I understood contango but I clearly didn't know how it would play out. Now oil is @ $40 a barrel and OIL is below 17. If the price of oil continues to go up, can I expect OIL to follow? And is OIL good to hold here in your opinion? I plan to AIM sector funds so should I trade OIL for IYE and own the companies instead? Surely would appreciate your feedback.
Hi, Cindy,
Clearly there is some correlation between the price of crude and this OIL play. You should note that this is an ETN rather than an ETF which is a slightly different beastie than you might think it is. See: http://stockweb.blogspot.com/2008/05/difference-between-etf-and-etn.html
Also I remain very excited about AIM but I have had some bumps in choosing ETF's. I am planning to end up holding Global Telecom IXP, Utilities IDU, Tech IYW, IBB, Real Estate IYR, Steel SLX and Commodities GSG. I rethought XLF and am replacing it with KRE. Any suggestions?
Given the current state of the market, I'd phase in to the various ETF's rather than starting out buying the whole lot at once. Keeping cash reserve is an important thing to do right now. We may be near the bottom. On the other hand, Lichello noted that today's floor is tomorrow's ceiling. One needs to balance the excitement with patience. A good analogy is fishing - let the market come to you rather than chase after it.
To answer your question on what do do near a bottom, My savings and dividends afford a stream of cash that I use to buy on the bottom using a fixed ratio of cash to amount invested. That way I don't run out of cash and having more come in, using a ratio relationship keeps me from getting too cash heavy either.The one group of richest dividend paying funds has a near obscene 34.98% dividend yield right now. I'll believe it when I see the money. Given the pittance they're paying on the cash right now if inflation kicks in it's not even holding value. Or barely so.
Some more ideas for you. Keep the questions coming.
Best,
AIMster
The Wreck Of The Sub-Prime Mortgage"
"The legend lives on from the Dow Theorists on down
Of the Sink Hole they call Sub-Prime Mortgage.
The Sink Hole, it is said, cannot be put to bed
even when backfilled with with Billions in PorkBarrel..."
The bubbles they did rise, until the economy capsized,
Despite Bernanke and Greenspan!
Regulation forgot, SEC oversight for naught,
When the guy Bernie Madoff outdid Ponzi!
How it will go, no one can tell,
Is it heaven or hell we be facing?
Bailout today, they say it's the only way,
Though spending our children's dreams we be chasing!
I'm starting to feel like the market's becoming one of those limbo dance activities:
1:30 pm : The major indices continue to drive lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has already broken below 7,000 for the first time since 1997, while the S&P 500 is closing in on the 700 level. The S&P 500 has not traded below 700 since October 1996.
Like the song says, "How low can we go?"
Couple of small buys. Nothing major. Gotta think long term, long term, did I say long term?
Re: Bank ETF's/Funds
I've got a position going in BTO, the John Hancock Bank and Thrift Opportunity Fund, currently with a modest 2.9% dividend but trading at a -20.43% discount to NAV. Expense ratio is 1.34%, about the high end of what I'll use, but better than some.
Their chart has mirrored the market:
So buying now decreases average cost. Looking at a 5 year chart shows a rather steady decline after being somewhat range bound.
So unless we go for broke, if you don't have to average down an existing position as I'm doing, starting one now would seemingly offer room to the upside with somewhat less to the down. Pure index funds might offer a play with less fees, being more cost effective, but I suppose the larger question being framed is "is the financial sector oversold?" To which I don't have a truly good answer. If you've got some sidelines capital waiting to get back in, a modest entry might be made now. Just don't bet the farm.
Best,
AIMster
If pro is the opposite of con,
Then the opposite of Progress is Congress!
Found this one in a Fate magazine advert for a Pagan bumpersticker:
"Life's a Witch,
and then you Fly!"
Which is about what I'd like to see the market do, it's been a witch, all right and some increasing elevation would help!
Another question that's been going through my mind has been if they nationalize Citigroup and Bank of America, there'd go two of the Dow 30 industrials components. I wonder what they'd replace them with and how would so doing skew the average?
Best,
AIMster
It seems in reading current and former posts that very few actually follow the AIM method as it is written. Everyone seems to tweek it to fit their own desires. So my question is: if this system is actually good why don't users follow it?
Hi, Jim,
Welcome. Good question.
One can think of Lichello's original AIM as by the book as a template. One must keep in mind especially the time that he was developing it, the mid-to-late 1970's on the heels of the 1973-1974 bear market. Personal computers were in their infancy, to buy or sell stocks was done under fairly expensive commission rates, information was at best derived from the daily newspaper or public library.
Even Lichello himself revised his system from the original first edition 50/50 ratio to subsequent 67/33 to the final AIM-HI 80/20. So he wasn't adverse to change, nor did he mandate that the 1.0 version of his system was the be all and end all for this type of system.
What you'll find is that people have been taking the core idea, a algorithm to encourage the "buy-low, sell-high" idea and trying to make it better. One limitation, for example is that available cash is finite. So what's the best way to have enough cash so that you can still buy at the bottom and not run out too early? Should one AIM each stock individually or as a whole portfolio? What about ETF's - investing instruments that didn't even exist when Lichello started working his system? With more information available over the 'net, how do you separate the good stuff from all the fluff?
Also where people are with the amount of money to invest will influence how they proceed. A person with $100,000 to invest has more options than someone with $10,000, for example.
AIM falls in the general class of investing strategies known as "core position trading." Google that term to learn of even more variants, if you wish.
Thanks for your question! If you have more, please post away!
Best,
AIMster
Did you adjust all that for leap year every 4th year? :) Best always, Ken
Kinda sorta - my initial calculation factored in a 365.25 day year, but then as Clive mentioned in the 18th Century there was a calendar realignment, so we gained 11 days. For example George Washington's birthday is given as 22 February 1732. However, this is based on our current Gregorian calendar. Looking at actual birth documents from that time would have Washington born 11 February 1732, as the British (and the not yet independent colonies) were still using the Julian calendar at that time.
It's all relative, of course, as Einstein told us, and at least we have AIM to guide us along in any calendar, doing what we can to observe the seasonality of stocks, and get this thread at least marginally on topic again <grin>.
Best,
AIMster
re: trivia,Aimster, Clive
Since Christ was born,,,,,,,he died 2009 years ago this Easter, he lived 33 years, so its been 2042 years since his birth :)
Not so. This year is 2009 Anno Domini, i.e., in the year of our Lord. Dionysius Exiguus was the monk who derived the modern calendar, based upon counting time from the incarnation, birth of Christ. Since Dionysius was unfamiliar with the concept of 0 (zero) there's no year zero to define the transition between 1 AD and 1 BC or BCE if you prefer the more politically correct term. Also scholars contend that his calculations were off by at least 6 to 12 years, making Christ born likely in 6 BC. So, theoretically this should be 2015, rather than 2009. Christ would have died then in 27 AD, holding this same logic.
Best,
AIMster
a total cost of Ownership analysis will show (I know because I have read a few) macs cost less over a 5 year span than either a windows or linux pc.
I'd be curious as to the basis of this, especially compared to a Linux box as such as system wouldn't have the Microsoft overhead for their O/S nor expensive Office software what with Open Office being out there. Given that the new Macs run on almost a cousin operating system to Linux derived from Berkeley Unix, as well as Intel processors, this one does have my attention. Any more info appreciated!
Best,
AIMster
I heard on Fast Money that if you spent $1mil a day since Christ was born, you still would not of spent $1 Trillion dollars. Not sure if that's true or not
TRUE!
$1,000,000.00 per day
$365,250,000.00 per year
$733,787,250,000.00 * 2009 years
To spend $ 1 Trillion at that rate:
$1,000,000,000,000.00 would take 2737.85 years
Or you'd be getting closer to the next millenium with
728.85 years to go from now. Don't spend it all in one place.
Which begs the question then why don't they just take a trillion since they're so willing to dole it out and give each household $1,000,000,000? Talk about a spending spree! Wowsuh!
Especially if it was all tax free since it's coming from our taxes anyway. At least pipedreams are free.
Best,
AIMster
I also fried my Apple computer (so I can only post at the library) and I am debating buying another one or and E machine net book with a Linex opporating system.
Ouch! Baked Apple not good. If money's a big consideration you can take virtually any PC and get Linux on it without too much angst. Main thing I don't like about Apple is their proprietary stance on things, makes things more expensive then when there's a competitive market. Other than that, they're solid systems.
Good luck!
Best,
AIMster
Automatic Investor's price will be increasing by $100 U.S. on Feb. 15th, 2009.
Of course, you can set the price as you wish, but I'm surprised at a roughly 33% increase in a time of economic uncertainty and people less likely to invest in what is essentially niche software. If you need it, it does an admirable job, but I'd be interested in knowing down the road if the customer base actually increases at the higher price.
There is a perception that greater functionality comes at a greater price, but for us frugal types we want the most functionality at the least cost. <grin>.
I wonder if you'd get more customers if you charged $100 less than the current price.
Good luck. And keep us posted.
Best,
AIMster
Original graphics there! Neat! And should you ever take to deliver meals on wheels, you can take care of the back end at the same time!!! <GRIN>
Thanks for the laugh this AM!
Best,
AIMster
Hi Clive,
America is broke, could you send me some $$$$ and soon?
He probably could, but he'd have to charge you by the Pound!! And at quite the exchange rate too! 1 GBP = 1.45647 USD. Of course you could have quite the Yen for it 1 JPY = 0.0110567 USD! Being a little more Franc about it won't get you too lost in the Swiss cheese.... 1 CHF = 0.864133 USD and so on....
Best,
AIMster
For an all-sectorfund portfolio a combination of Vanguard for domestic and wisdomtree for international seems to be a nice choice, as far as i can see. However this is not mentioned here.
I think part of it may be that wisdomtree is fairly new, having started only in June of 2006. Given that other players like iShares have been around much longer, lack of historical performance data would cause some reluctance to invest. As they become a more mature player, this should start to change and their funds may warrant due consideration.
Best,
AIMster
Hi, Cindy,
I suppose the question is how comfortable are you working with Excel? Before I'd make any changes I'd load the original spreadsheet, then do a "save-as" under a name like "orgiinal_AIM.xls" and leave that one alone so you can always go back to it if something gets messed up. It's a good practice to follow when writing or doing major mods so that you don't have to go too far back to "undo" what you've done in case of problems.
The one you're working with is admittedly "bare bones" and serves more as a proof of concept than a full fledged finished product. As such it will give you an overview.
If it looks like it's working you're probably fine. What I'd suggest is that you add a comment column at the end of each row so that you can make notes as to what you've done and why as you go along - these will prove invaluable six months from now. The goal is to integrate whatever add-ins you're making, new cash, Vealies, etc., to become seamless into the overall structure of the spreadsheet. The alternative is to understand the logic and write your own spreadsheet in a way that makes sense for you rather than trying to retrofit into an already existing model. You can check your spreadsheet results against the free online calculator - if the numbers match, your logic is correct.
Best,
AIMster
I should have mentioned over the past 6 months I didn't use the monthly (time) perspective as Mr. L modeled. In fact, I bought all the way down until fully invested using the 80/20 equity/cash formula. Sometimes I bought 10% below last transaction, sometimes 30% below last transaction. Point is never using consistent buy points other than 10% sell safe. I'm working to establish a model of only buying 20% below last purchase/sell or something similiar (more consistant) in order to take advantage of market volatility as opposed to the monthly review to buy/sell.
Interesting idea. The only problem I see with it versus a time-based model (Lichello's monthly) is that checking periodically could give you periods of successive buys (albeit at varying prices) whereas using a fixed percentage decline could turn off buying altogether once the stock hits an absolute low and then never goes the 20% below that price (or whatever percent # you end up using) again for several months, if at all.
Rather than a fixed percentage, my idea of checking to see whether or not a buy reduces average cost, is lower than the last price paid and lower than the lowest price paid might serve to give you the smoothed out curve you're looking for, but with less possibility of missing buying opportunities. Something you might want to test. Your method may be better, I can't say without more testing also.
If you've any more ideas or questions, please keep 'em coming!
Best,
AIMster
However, my biggest struggle (in light of recent events) is how to decide on a somewhat mechanical buy point. Maybe, some others could jump in here for recommendations. Do you use a percentage below last sell and/or purchase price, oscillators, trend lines, etc. I know, I know, if we could just see in to the future:) But, really I am trying to make the Lichello method as successful as possible and could use some experience suggestions.
Hi, Alton,
Usually one can dispense with the crystal ball paraphernalia as AIM will give you not only the next buy price but the number of shares to buy or sell, especially if you're AIMing on a holding-by-holding basis rather than the whole portfolio. If you need specifics there's a FREE calculator that will give you the details which can be found here: http://www.aim-users.com/calculator.htm
The whole portfolio approach (Lichello's original model) isn't quite as specific, however the general principle I follow is to keep reducing average cost as I buy additional shares in existing holdings. So I see what is the most favorably situated when I get a buy recommendation and then act accordingly.
That's one of the nice benefits of AIM - one doesn't need fancy subscriptions nor expensive software. As a reactive system we let the market guide us and make our contrarian moves accordingly. We're cautious in general euphoria and gleeful in the downdrafts! What a life! <grin>
Best,
AIMster
I am a recent AIM investor using a mutual fund and the 50% cash reserve method. I assume if the fund's value is declining you ignore any buy signal if your cash reserve level is below 50%, and you would do nothing else.
Welcome!
You're on the right track having the cash reserve. The point of the cash reserve is for it to be there to use it on the sort of price decline that you're seeing with the mutual fund (and what we're all seeing on just about everything else)! Lichello's 50/50, later revised to 67/33 and even later to 80/20 is to have a starting amount for when you first set up an account using AIM. Once you "activate" the "money machine" the amount of equity vs cash will change dynamically over time as the AIM logic shifts money between the two sides. According to Lichello, what you're (pardon the pun) AIMing for is to run out of cash at the very bottom of the market, to be 100% in equities at the absolute low. You can then accumulate cash again as things go back up.
BTW, The "Vwave" that you'll see mentioned on here looks at what the market is currently doing and based on various calculations tries to recommend a starting cash percentage rather than using an arbitrarily fixed percentage. Usually mutual funds can carry a lower starting cash reserve amount instead of individual stocks, owing to their greater diversity, though in this uncertain time an extra measure of reserve is likely prudent.
So if your system is telling you to buy, go and do so. Hopefully the rewards will be worth it later. Do let us know if you have any more questions.
Best,
AIMster
I am using Bill Riedeman's Bare Bones spreadsheet and am confused about how to add new money (dividends or contributions).
Hi, Cindy,
Welcome! Nice to see new people. Basically I'd suggest inserting a new row at the point at which you want to add either the dividend or cash and record the receipt of same in that new row. Once that's done, adjust the line below to reflect the new activity, copy out the additional lines below and you should get back in synch.
If dividends, I don't normally invest these right away, but rather let them accumulate in cash to be invested later. So in the new row I'd put the amount of the dividend and add the dividend to the total cash amount. This should update the total portfolio value also.
Adding new cash is a bit more complicated. Start by creating a new row as you would for dividends. You then need to buy more of the stock in proportion to your equity/cash ratio. Increase Portfolio Control by 100% of the amount you just invested in the equity side, add the other part to cash and increment your cash total.Say for instance you're using the AIM-HI 80%/20% equity/cash ratio. You want to add $1000 Insert the new row - put in a comment "adding $1000 cash, from whatever reason." On the next row, buy $800 worth of stock and add the new shares - purchased 100 shares $8/share. Add 100 shares to your total. Increment Portfolio control by 800. Add $200 to the cash.
Let us know if this makes sense or if you need more details.
Best,
AIMster
Do you reinvest dividends regardless of price level or only when the shares are down in price?
Good question. I have it set so all dividends feed into the cash. I'll then use the dividends (as part of the total cash) to invest in the most cost-effective holdings (where possible). So the dividends are being reinvested, but not necessarily into the same holding that they came from, but into the portfolio overall.
Best,
AIMster
By way of update, my "slow AIM" machine is working well. Riding the ups and downs of the month so far has allowed me to make 14 purchases, reinvesting dividends and savings. Current yield on the portfolio is 12.06%
I control it via two spreadsheets. One consists of the current portfolio value, and the current value of the cash portion. It then subtracts the cash from the total, giving the amount in the equity side. Next to that is the target percentage for the cash side, currently 10% so it shows how much +/- from the target the portfolio is. I then make additional purchases when the cash gets around 11%, using the difference between 11 and 10% - note that this number changes dynamically according to the value of the portfolio.
The second spreadsheet holds all the items in the equity side, giving the total invested, average cost per share, last purchase date, last purchase price, lowest purchase price and so on. Three conditional fields exist: 1) is the current price lower than the average cost per share? 2) is the current price lower than the last price paid? 3) is the current price lower than the lowest price I've bought this holding at before? The most cost effective investments, then, at least in terms of lowering the average cost per share are those holdings that offer affirmative answers to all three conditions.
So this "system" allows me to follow the general Lichello-ist principle of lowering the average cost of the holdings as efficiently as possible, along with reinvesting dividends and savings in a timely manner.
Hi, SC,
The general consensus has been that the "X" type funds may work in the short term but the historical upward bias in stocks as a whole tends to negate the benefits of the short-side "X" funds. One idea that came up was to play one side against the other instead of the shift between equity and a cash holding. Of course we may be in somewhat uncharted territory right now, so who knows when the historical bias will reassert itself, but for now I suppose we need to at least consider the truth of the long term record to remain historically valid.
If you'll give us more detail as to the specifics of your holdings we can look more closely at it and what you're doing and give it further pondering.
Welcome!
Best,
AIMster
Did Chuck ever chuck you a reply? :)
No, or not yet anyway. A long shot that I'd get a response.
Thanks for asking.
Best,
AIMster
Well, as of 1.20 PM, a little over an hour into the new Obama Presidency the market's not reacting too much in either direction - sporting a moderate loss at this point, with the Dow currently off 2.24%
I'd expect the transition's already been factored in to the market sentiment. Since all went smoothly - except for the internet video feeds as half (or more) of the planet was trying to watch live, the sunny day in DC went well.
I do hope the new First Lady won't get a cold - she looked rather underdressed compared to a lot of the people around her!
We'll see where we AIM to go from here.. Historical, that's for sure.
re: money spinner
I found an email address for Dr. Chuck Chakrapani of the Money Spinner book and asked if he's got a web site that gives the particulars as to his ideas, given the scarcity of the book. Not sure if he'll get it or if I'll get a reply, but if I do I'll update the group here. Fingers crossed.
Best,
AIMster
Right - I'd have used babelfish to translate a static page but a streaming video's something else!
Spanish Twinvest youtube video. I think from Spain, given the Euro currency symbol.
My dad, fluent in Spanish, rendered this translation:
Twinvest -- Away to invest small amounts
Objective: To get the greatest return with the least risk
This system was developed by Roberto Lichello
It can be used when there is little initial capital.
It is only necessary to commit to saving a certain amount each month, every other month, or every three months.
Important: Always a fixed amount.
Always choose a system, have a way of doing things, not investing what 'they' say, what you read or hear.
1. Choose a set amount, for instance €100 a month.
2. Divide this amount by four: 100/4=25.
3. Multiply the resulting sum by 3: 25 x 3 = 75. (this number is the multiplier code.)
4. Choose an investment fund or shares in which you want to invest your money and look at the quoted price: for example €10 a share.
5. Multiply the share price by your multiplier code.
6. This is your Twinvest code (if a fraction, round it up.)
7. Once a month review the price of the share or fund. Let's suppose it continues at €10 a share.
8. Divide your Twinvest code by this price: 750/10=75.
9. This result indicates to you to invest €75 in the
and so on. As we're familiar with Twinvest from the book I told him we don't need the rest of the translation - but it IS good to see Lichello's work going strong overseas too!
So I guess that elusive bottom hasn't been reached quite yet.
Such extremes, bottoms or tops, tend to be seen only through the reflection in the rear-view mirror. No crystal ball shortcuts, no driving backwards, but we AIM on as best we can, knowing we at least we have a plan for dealing with the downturns, rather than merely hitting the "panic" button.
That puts us way out in front, in the long term.
Keep on AIMing!
Best,
AIMster
My own results are down 49% for the year.
Hi, Toofuzzy,
Good to see you back.
I see I'm not the only one. Sigh. That's about where I am too, if you'd like some company in our collective misery.
Since I use the 'whole portfolio' rather than per-holding strategy, as I get buy recommendations I've developed a spreadsheet that looks at the last purchase price, last purchase date. It then looks at the total amount invested, divided by number of shares to get an average cost per share. It then has a couple of conditionals that ask if the current price is lower than the average price and then, if the current price is lower than the last purchase price. I sort by less than last price, then by lower than average cost, then by last purchase date. Using this, I'll buy more of what's at the most favorable price that I made the last purchase at in the longest time ago. Gives at least some sort of method in the current madness <grin>.
Gotta think long-term, gotta think long term, etc! And the dividends help ease some of the pain. On the whole portfolion the current yield is 11.95% Still...
Best,
AIMster
It might be Greek to me, but NM, Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. looks like it might have some potential. Based in Piraeus, Greece this is one of those bulk shipping firms, but at a lower price than some right now, and a respectable 9.2% dividend yield.
Their chart looks AIMiable enough:
Presented without claim, but for due consideration.
AIMster