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Seems to me since around 10 am or so, that every time some buying comes in, there is almost immediately a sale, most times very small, that comes in to knock it back down. Someone definitely wants to keep it down.
If we can get some strong buying pressure, it will be difficult for these small lot sellers to keep it down.
Thanks, and appreciate your input.
Believe in your DD, and what you own. I believe patience will pay off here. 8.25 bond is at $50.00. They are steadily gaining, which imo, shows confidence in they are going to be paid.
I think the share price will follow. Seen it many times before. Just may take a little more time.
Appreciate that, Ernie. I try not to post fluff. I am a little surprised though that the share price is still in the mid to low .20's, considering they went in with 500 million in assets over liabilities. I really think they filed to to try to renegotiate and, or get relief from the unions and legacy expenses.
I read today that the unions are willing to talk, but obviously, they are not just going to give anything up without negotiating. Also, Peabody realizes that if PCX doesn't pay these legacy costs, they can be pushed back to them.
I can see all this being worked out and PCX still have quite a bit of equity left over, or a stalking horse could come in with a bid for the company. IMO, it is definitely worth more than .23.
8.25 bonds closed at $48.51, up $2.51, with a high of $51.20. The 3.25 closed at $14.5, down $0.75, with a high of $16.00.
The share is not following yet. I believe it was frankj that noted that everytime we get a little buying pressure, it gets sold right back down. I wonder if folks are still shorting or if traders are trying to scalp small profits.
I believe patience will pay off, and a minimum of $0.61 is not unrealistic.
Amen, Ernie.
8.25 bond closed flat at $46.00, high of day was $ 49.00. 3.25 bond closed at 15.25, which was high of the day. Yesterday's close was 13.25.
Volume picked up along with share price this afternoon until someone dumped 49k shares at close.
As hfields, asked, I am interested to find out what came out of the court proceeding today. I have not seen it either.
Looks like someone dumped 49k right at the close at market. Who knows why, but it would have been nice to have closed green. 49k isn't that much in the whole scheme of things, just the timing had a negative effect.
No problem. I will update later tonight. Like to close green anyway.
Well, we will see where the bonds close. They have fluctuated quite a bit today, but I believe all trades have been above yesterday's close. The 3.25 hit $15 earlier today, but is at 14.125 now.
I am also interested to see or hear what went on at the hearing earlier today. Maybe it was something that spurred the volume this afternoon.
Stock price on the move as volume picks up. Btw, 8.25 bond is at $49.00.
I would say spike is due to some new found optimism. As I mentioned in another post, looking forward to see what tomorrow will bring.
Yes, good luck to us, and I am looking forward to the information that will be disclosed in the court documents. This has a lot of potential from these levels, and as you, mention the lower float doesn't hurt a bit.
Looking forward to see what tomorrow will bring.
Bond prices, for those interested. 8.25 closed at $46.00 today, yesterday closed $43.00. For the non-callable 3.25 bond, it closed at $13.25, yesterday closed at $9.95.
I am an ex CEMJQER, too. The link you gave is the website I use as well.
Just to be clear, I realize the common shareholders will be last to paid behind the creditors, bondholders, etc, however, that does not mean there is not any value in the common shares. That is yet to be determined, and until then, the value is in the eye of the beholder, or shareholder, in this case.
I have used the bond prices as indicators before, and it has helped me before. I don't think I am the only one either.
Typically, the company does not release too many pr's regarding their progress during the bk process. Quarterly financial reports are not a requirement. Most of the information you will get from how the company is progressing is through court filings. They will detail how creditors are to be paid in these, or if there are any proposed asset sales, etc.
Next on the docket is to appoint an unsecured creditor's committee tomorrow morning.
The other companies that came out of bk with value for the shareholders were able to settle their debts without using up their assets. There are many ways to accomplish this. Any moves made by the company will be detailed in court filings. Keep an eye on those, and imo, the bond prices as indicators.
Hey kooleraid, got your message. Can't respond privately, but appreciate it, and agree with your premisis that you have summarized on the board.
I believe they filed to get out front of the legacy costs that is draining the company. They want to re-negotiate, or defer them back to the the other company, BTU, if they can.
When a company like this struggles with revenues, the legacy costs puts them in a tenuous position. As you mentioned, they also have two companies that owe them a significant amount of money. They get these worked out, then they should be on the right road to recovery.
Thanks
Yes, I understand that. I just use the bond prices as an indicator of investor confidence in the value of the company. If the bonds start recovering, then there is a good chance, not a guarantee, imo, that the equity will have value also.
Thanks
Thanks. Glad to help.
Glad to help. Btw, last 8.25 bond price is 43.250. Day high is 44.250.
The corporate bonds are a basically a contractual promise by the company in return for a loan, and the company promises to pay the loan back, with a pre-determined interest rate, by a certain date (called maturity date).
For instance, say someone loans the company 10 million dollars. The company then gives the entity loaning the money a bond, promising to pay back the 10 million, plus say 8.25% interest by July 17th, 2017. This would be considered an 8.25%, 5 year bond. Also, the bonds can be broken up in different sizes to make up the 10 million.
So, if everything is going good the company pays the 8.25 % interest annually, then no later than July 17th, 2017, pays back the 10 million. These bonds can be traded also. If I loaned them the money, I may not want to wait 5 years, or I may think they may not be able to pay back the money if the company becomes distressed, so I may be willing to take less than face value of the bond. So someone will buy it from me for an agreed price. Of course the buyer sees some value in the bond, or they wouldn't want it.
Bonds are backed by company assets, so when a company files bk, the bonds may drop by the holders being afraid they will not get their money back and selling for pennies on the dollar. As investors get more confident they will be paid, they are willing to pay more for the bond. That is what is happening here. They are still a long way from $100.00, that is what bonds are originally issued for, but they are increasing everyday. So, confidence is coming back in believing the bonds will be paid.
Hope this helps. Someone else may want to chime in also.
Thanks, Popper. I couldn't remember exactly, but I knew it was good.
You are welcome Frank. Looking for a double bottom. We will see what happens.
Thanks. A lot of experience between those guys. I definitely have learned a lot from all you guys. Good luck to you.
Good to hear from you, h. Cemjq was a heck of a ride. Have you formed an opinion on this one yet?
You are welcome, frankj. Just going off some of my own experiences. I don't know how high the stock will trade while it is going through the bk process, however, I do believe it is worth more than .23, LOL.
As far some posters stating that we will lose all our shares, there is always that possibility, because there is no guarantees. However, in order for that to happen, the company would have to prove that they have more liabilities than assets, leaving nothing for the shareholders to split among the approx 92 million shares. Based on the bk filing, they are showing approx $ 500 million of assets above the liabilities. This being the case, they would have to pay, or owe all that to creditors, leaving nothing. Also, they would have to prove in bk court all of it was gone, leaving nothing.
I will be suprised if an equity committee is not appointed to represent the shareholders with this much value to fight over. Many institutional holders are invested in the company, and I doubt they will go down without a fight.
In all disclaimers in the bk cases, the company, (in court they are know as the debtor), always states that commons may be cancelled leaving nothing. It is common practice they make this statement. However, it does not mean that will happen. As you read the boards, there are many posters who have invested in companies that have emerged from bk with shares intact or have received compensation in the form of cash or shares in the new company for their commons.
This process has just started. A company this large could easily take more than a year to work through the process before they emerge. Anyone that says they know the commons will be worthless does not what they are talking about. They probably have a vested interest (short) to want people to sell, and keep the price low.
No one knows how long this will take or what the shares will be worth when the judge approves the Plan of Reorganization and they finally emerge from bk. Anybody that tells you different than that is full of you know what.....
Thanks, you too.
You probably will having trouble believing this, but to best of my memory, and it has been a couple of years, they actually started trading at a premium, which means that went above $ 100.00. I know there are a few guys here who might remember also, but I am pretty sure I am correct.
Investors were so confident the bonds would be paid in full based on the assets versus liabilities, they kept trading the bonds up in price for pennies on the dollar.
The stock prices soon followed.
It has to be getting close, imo. Glad to see you over here from the Goodfella's board.
Sounds good.
Will do. I think I know which one you are referring to. Good luck with that one, too.
Exactly. Someone believes those assets have more value than where the bond had been trading.
Ernie, looks like they were trading in the low $40's on 7/06. Then Monday, 7/09, they dropped to as low as $ 30.00 after the filing. Last trade I show had them at $ 34.125 on the 9th. See link.
http://cxa.gtm.idmanagedsolutions.com/finra/bondcenter/BondTradeActivitySearchResult.aspx?StartDate=07%2f06%2f2012&EndDate=07%2f09%2f2012&SelectionOption=2&TradeSize=&SortBy=0&ID=NzAzMzZUQUM4
Also, looks like the bonds started a slow drop around December, 2011/ January, 2012 from around the upper $90's to approx $ 75. Then dropped hard from there. See 1 year chart.
http://cxa.gtm.idmanagedsolutions.com/finra/bondcenter/BondDetail.aspx?ID=NzAzMzZUQUM4&Range=1year&GraphType=Price
I just remember from trading CEMJQ, that the bonds were a great indicator of investor sentiment. As the bonds went up, the price followed. Someone must believe there is some value there.
8.25 bond is at $43.00. Highest I remember seeing it since the filing. Was 34.5 last Monday.
You are welcome. I will update again toward end of the day.
8.25 bond now 42.25.
You are welcome, frankj. I have a vested interested as well, as we have about 200,000 shares. Expecting a nice return soon. Played CEMJQ a few years ago, and it took a little while to get going, so this is very normal.
On AAMRQ, it took 7 days for it to go from a low of .20 to a high of 1.20, and imo, PCXCQ is in better shape than they were at their filing.
Very optimistic here. Btw, bond is at 41.033 now.
This could go up exponentially at any time. I would say many are watching, waiting for an entry point. Once they decide it is not going much lower, and they do not want to miss out on the run up, they will buy in. Volume will pick up, and the price will follow.
8.25 bond has been to almost $43 today. It is 40.49 as of this post. Was 34.5 on the day they filed. I think $1.00 to $1.25 is very reasonable in the near future given the info in the bk filings.
I am watching the bond prices as an indicator also.
8.25 bond up to 41.90.
Good synopsis, Dion. This process can go on a long time, with many twists and turns. A lot to fight over with a company this size. You are right about the lawyers, they have no risks, just all reward for them.
Me too, Ernie. Just getting started here...