is...a Libertarian
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TECHNOLOGY TRADER
By BILL ALPERT
Hewlett Packard's got a good story to tell on Tuesday, when it hosts its analyst meeting in New York City. The computer and printer company (HPQ) has been growing its market share and profit margins, in comparison with archrival Dell (DELL). And, as my colleague Mark Veverka points out, HP also may talk up a new video conferencing product. But the company will probably not say much about one of its best advantages over Dell -- that is, its offering of desktop and laptop PCs that have processors from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD ).
Dell remains an stronghold of Intel (INTC). In the market for the larger computers known as servers, the widely-admired AMD Opteron chips have helped Hewlett Packard get some pricing power, while Dell sells Intel-based servers at a discount. Operating margins in HP's Enterprise Storage and Servers unit were 9.1% in its fourth fiscal quarter that ended in October, compared to about 1% when HP was being run by what's-her-name. Current CEO Mark Hurd deserves credit for cutting overhead costs, but better-than-expected pricing and sales on AMD-based servers were surely a help, too.
Personal computer buyers may also start seeing Dell's Intel exclusivity as a liability, now that folks are starting to look forward to the next Microsoft operating system: Windows Vista. When it ships in August 2006, Vista will need a 64-bit microprocessor to perform acceptably. Vista will work on processors that handle instructions in 32-bit chunks...just not very well. That's why some analysts anticipate a hardware upgrade cycle after Vista ships.
Just as HP's server margins have benefited from AMD's upmarket processors, AMD chips could enable HP to steal a march on Dell in personal computers. Hewlett Packard is AMD's biggest customer, so it should be getting good discounts.
With the right marketing, AMD-based PCs ought to be commanding higher prices than PCs with Intel inside. Today, only AMD makes 64-bit chips for laptops and desktops. Intel isn't expected to offer 64-bit processors for laptops until late next year. HP -- and other brave AMD customers like Acer -- could be promoting their products as the only Intel-compatible hardware that's future proof. [discussed on this board recently]
They haven't chosen that marketing tactic. Intel wouldn't like it if they did, and Intel still controls most of the chips and subsidizes much of the advertising dollars spent by PC sellers. That leaves it to voices in the wilderness, like mine, to point out that HP products -- and share -- are probably a better bargain than Dell's.
Probably a Barron's inspired move higher on Monday.
What's the matter you had to run cause your mommy came in the room?
Based on the quality of your responses and the amount of thought that goes into them I would judge that you fall between a 1 and a 4 on the Wechsler scale (in the lowest category).
Here are some things to consider while you look that up. Intel is also having problems delivering chips to customers. AMD's alternatives are (i) to lie, (ii) to cutoff some customers in favor of others or (iii) to start buying lamps hoping to find one with a genie to solve all their problems.
On your perdiction of being toast, what does that mean in your mind. That AMD will lose marketshare in 1Q06, that their stock price will plunge. Please tell oh Savant of Stockpicking.
The question was rhetorical. What Bryant said was assuming that they don't blow it, AMD will gain some share. Did you expect Intel to be more forthright?
The market and the analysts certainly took it as an admission that Intel was losing share.
Keith, perhaps you can explain this comment from yesterday. I took it at face value.
"If AMD ships as they forecast, then we could lose some share base on that," Bryant said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051209/intel_outlook.html?.v=7
This may well be an issue for them, but as I said a high class problem. As an investor, I would be buying AMD stock, despite its lofty levels. At least going into the conference call.
Intel admitted they are in hand to hand combat and are losing share. The article you referenced seems to be saying that AMD is on allotment.
Keith, the grand opening of the Fab was the middle of October. I presume that this meant grand opening for production, which if what posters here have said is correct, should me that chips will be showing up in January sometime.
Customer risk is a problem, but if they fess up and admit they are on allocation, with new production coming on line in January (Fab 36 is currently running wafers, or so it is reported), their customers may be unhappy but will not abandon them.
Perhaps, but that is a high class problem given Fab36 is coming on line. Also, if true, AMD's earnings for the fourth quarter should be great.
Yes I can see how you think they are having problems. Alzheimers, too bad there is no cure.
2nd UPDATE: Chartered Semi Ups 4Q Guidance On Xbox Sales
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. (C27.SG) Friday raised its fourth-quarter guidance, due to strong demand for the chips used in the Xbox360 game console.
The forecast of higher profit and revenue for the three months ending Dec. 31 follows four consecutive quarters of losses, due to factors including seasonal weakness and start-up expenses for a new plant.
Analysts believe revenue growth driven by Xbox 360 sales will spill over into the first half of 2006, helping to cement the chipmaker's recovery.
"Revenues ... are now expected to be above the high end of our prior guidance primarily due to a favorable product mix," Chief Financial Officer George Thomas said in a statement.
Analysts say fourth-quarter revenue will be mostly driven by the chipmaker's shipments of 90-nanometer wafers for the central processing chips used in Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) popular Xbox360 game console.
Chartered, the world's fourth-largest contract chipmaker, said it now expects net profit for the quarter at approximately US$16 million, compared with the previous midpoint guidance of US$10 million.
The Singapore-based foundry raised revenue guidance for the quarter to about US$367 million from about US$359 million.
Forecast revenue including Chartered's share of Silicon Manufacturing Partners, or SMP, which is a minority-owned joint-venture fabrication plant, was increased to approximately US$399 million from US$389 million.
Chartered's improved guidance for the fourth-quarter was expected by some analysts in the market, following strong demand for Xbox360 after its North America launch on Nov. 22.
Daiwa Institute of Research analyst Pranab Sarmah told Dow Jones Newswires late Thursday he was expecting Chartered to revise up its fourth-quarter guidance "by a couple of percentage points."
Sarmah expects the company to post a fourth-quarter net profit of US$15.5 million.
Bigger orders from communications-related customers are also likely to have contributed to a stronger-than-expected quarter, he said.
Xbox Boost Continues In Early 2006
Analysts are expecting healthy demand through 2006 for the Xbox360 central processing unit chips.
Microsoft aims to sell 3 million units of Xbox360 within the first three months of its release and 10 million units by the end of the first year.
"Chartered will still do well in the first half of next year as the global roll out of the Xbox 360 (in the U.S., Europe and Japan) will continue to drive demand for the game console CPU chips," said Kim Eng analyst Dharmo Soejanto.
Following Friday's improved guidance, Kim Eng cut its 2005 full-year loss forecast for the company to US$170 million from US$176 million. In October, Kim Eng had cut full-year loss projections from US$230 million after the company posted a narrower than expected loss for the third quarter.
Chartered doesn't provide full-year forecasts.
Soejanto also raised his 2006 net profit forecast to US$72 million from about US$40 million.
CLSA Research also sees continued strength in Xbox 360 shipments into the first half of 2006 amid a likely delayed introduction of Sony Corp.'s Playstation 3, or PS3.
"In light of the potential postponement in PS3 launch, we expect Microsoft's Xbox 360 shipments to remain uninterrupted, and the one-year, 10-million-unit target appears to be attainable, if not more," CLSA said in its report.
CLSA raised its 2006 earnings estimates for Chartered by 64%, with a rosy outlook on the first quarter.
In October, Chartered said 90-nm wafer shipments accounted for 24% of total revenue during the third quarter and are expected to rise to 27% for the fourth quarter.
Chartered makes the 90-nanometer wafers at its newest fabrication plant, known as Fab 7, in Singapore.
Chartered said its earlier utilization guidance of about 79% remains unchanged.
The company will release fourth-quarter results Jan. 27.
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/051209/15/3x5k2.html
Confused again. Maybe the meds will help.
You can play all kinds of games with numbers when your product ends up in less than 8,000 OEM servers per quarter.
I recently read Chartered is having problems.
How about a link?
Couldn't understand it -- not surprising since you have a known history of getting confused easily.
I am sure you are very familiar with that sentiment. One day huh.
This is hypocritical coming from you, but then that never bothers a troll like yourself. Anymore contradictory comments you want to make to highlight your intelligence.
Chipguy attacked Joe in a conversation that had nothing to do with him. I simply asked Chipguy the same question he asked Joe. I know the logic must be challenging, but try to keep up.
Your attempt to change the topic through an attack on me is a non-sequitor. Nevertheless you choose that route. I let you slide.
You attacked me, you got a deserving response.
Chipguy got the tin foil hat on again. LOL. Or is it that you stop taking the meds?
Kate, I know it is in your nature to use personal attacks in your posts, but you may find your biting off more than you can chew. Chipguy had no dog in that fight he just decided to pile on. I know it bothers you faithful when you are served what you dish out.
By the way would chipguy's observation apply to you? LOL. Your not too much of a coward to share that info with us are you? LOL.
Your conjecture would explain a lot. Would it be Pauline or Paula?
TiVo and cable DVR boxes succeed based on their user interface and ease of use
Assuming, Intel can match the easy to use user interface, what will cause people to switch. Inertia is on the side of the status quo. Not to mention the cable companies have a direct advertising conduit to their consumers through the monthly bill.
The thing that will limit Viiv's success in the beginning is form factors, IMO.
I agree that this will be an issue for Viiv.
HDTV's have the resolution for crisp Internet browsing, as well as the size and quality to view the next generation of media.
Other than single people, who is going to want to try and monopolize the family TV so they can go surfing. As to pictures and music, they are already available via TiVo.
Viiv may not be all that impressive in the first iteration, but keeping in mind that each year will come with a new generation, I think it will become a high growth vehicle for Intel long term.
Microsoft is the King of iterating to success. I don't think they intend to let xBox360 lose over time. For Viiv to succeed, Intel (relying on OEMs) will have ti battle Microsoft and win.
Unless Intel can beat xBox, Playstation, the cable companies and TiVo, they will not succeed with this venture. Specialized devices offer either greater simplicity or better performance than a all in one type device.
What is the competitive advantage that will allow this brand to be successful?
If they launched a product, it would be a low end notebook. I am not convinced that they will "sell the hell out of it".
If you feel strongly that Apple is launching a product early and that they will have quantity to sell, you may want to invest in Apple or Intel shares.
I know it is possible for you to get confused from one post to the next, Trolling not being an exact science, but getting confused in the same post?
You said:
Intel, nor AMD releases yield information.
then said:
. Intel has much higher yeilds which is one indicator you are wrong.
So which do you want to go with?
You mean if there is and if they sell the hell out of it?
As to how worthwhile Smooth is, just look at the quality of his posts on this board.
Smooth,
...Apple with have a Yonah based NB in January. AND THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT, I'M POSITIVE! IN ADDITION, THERE WILL SELL THE HELL OUT OF IT!
It is nice to see you take a stand. Now come January, if there is no Apple notebook we can conclude how much credence your posts deserve going forward.
Good Luck.
Smooth it is said that hindsight is 20/20 -- obviously not in your "special" case. I would opine that is probably closer to legally blind.
Yep. That, low power of the .11b chip and the PM, the massive educational campaign on how to change your way of working, the massive effort by Intel to establish hot spots, yada, yada... and the public ready to accept it.
Of course you just got through saying:
It was wireless that was ready to take off and did. Low power was icing on the cake.
So which one do you want to go with? Take some time, you can use your fingers to help you if you need to. You can ask your friends for help, but please use a private message as it will be much less embarrassing.
Clue: Intel wanted to sell wireless chipsets and they needed to figure out a way to make OEM's buy them.
Smooth, is this another display of your outstanding intellect?
It was wireless that was ready to take off and did. Low power was icing on the cake.
Centrino was 802.11b, which as we all know was cutting edge at the time right. No 802.11b or g PCMCIA cards were available and of course no one made 802.11g chips that outperformed Intel's 802.11b chip and that were capable of being integrated with Intel's centrino product -- not.
Yes, that's it. It was wireless, yeah definitely the wireless.
Smooth,
So you claim your taking a stand ... I suppose in your mind you probably are. Let's recap what you said:
You are clueless, too. You could have said the same about Centrino but what you fail to understand is that Intel already has experience in the Centrino marketing effort. I have no doubt that if the market is ready to accept it, this will be the biggest thing of which you should be really scared.
Then when you took a "stand" you said:
There is some jeopardy in the success of VIIV, it's a bold move and like many other things, just can't be jammed down people's throats. It's been tried before without success by some huge companies.
Yup, that must be taking a stand for you.
Not much substance to the presentation other than a reaffirmation of previous statistics.
Itanium: A cautionary tale
On June 8, 1994, Hewlett-Packard and Intel announced a bold collaboration to build a next-generation processor called Itanium, intended to remake the computing industry.
Eleven years and billions of dollars later, Itanium serves instead as a cautionary tale of how complex, long-term development plans can go drastically wrong in a fast-moving industry.
Despite years of marketing and product partnerships, Itanium remains a relative rarity among servers. In the third quarter of this year, 7,845 Itanium servers were sold, according to research by Gartner. That compares with 62,776 machines with Sun Microsystems' UltraSparc, 31,648 with IBM's Power, and 9,147 with HP's PA-RISC.
But perhaps most significantly, it compares with 1.7 million servers with x86 chips, based on an architecture Itanium was intended to replace.
...
Itanium derailed
Then big problems hit. The first Itanium, code-named Merced, was delayed from 1999 to mid-2000. When it arrived even later, in May 2001, even lowly x86 chips beat it in important performance tests.
When Intel and HP launched the Itanium project, "they thought they had just laid the golden egg," Eunice said. However, "when Merced arrived, it was a turd."
Even HP called Merced a mere "development environment."
The delays forced SGI to extend its MIPS chip family by two generations and cancel its first-generation Itanium system. "We had a product we designed based on the Merced chip which we elected not to take into the market," said Dave Parry, general manager for SGI's server group.
And Sun--admittedly a lukewarm ally that never planned to sell its own Itanium servers--dropped Solaris support in 2000.
...
Much more at http://news.com.com/Itanium+A+cautionary+tale/2100-1006_3-5984747.html?tag=nefd.lede
Centrino was easy, relatively speaking. Intel had a product with a clear competitive advantage -- long battery life in a T&L form factor -- that was a must have for road warriors. The great unwashed masses wanted what the "elite" were using and their desires were only reinforced by the marketing mavens at Intel. Centrino was a huge success.
Not going to happen with Viiv.
Smooth you have never contributed anything of value to the boards, other than as a Troll, so your intellect is highly suspect. In contrast other anti-AMD partisans have shown their intellect in expressing their views -- even if those views are not popular.
So the best you can offer is "If the market is ready to accept it". Really taking a stand there. Why not hedge some more -- if it is Tuesday, raining and an eclipse is on-going.
Take a stand boy, not a well you better watch out because I'm going to ...
Branding is an interesting exercise that takes a lot to be successful. Without going into all the analysis, I will go out on a limb and predict that Viiv will be a failure when measured against the "Centrino" brand. This despite the fact that Intel and Dell will through lots of money at it.
If it is consitent with their Win 95 or Win XP launches, Microsoft will likely spend over $100 million in a very short period of time. No doubt their partners will spend large sums promoting the needed upgrades required for Vista. Overall it should be quite a buzz.
Tenchu, here is Microsoft's comments from Ask the Experts on the Windows Vista website:
Processor
The current x64 processors from Intel and AMD will be excellent processors for Windows Vista, and I think well see a widespread move to 64-bit by the time Windows Vista ships. ... Because these x64 processors will run 32-bit or 64-bit Microsoft Windows equally well, and because these processors are at the upper end of the processor spectrum, they are an excellent choice in getting ready for Windows Vista, and they let you build a system thats ready to move into the 64-bit processing world whenever youre ready.
Summary
As you can see from the guidelines Ive covered in this column, you dont need to choose an absolute top-end computer to ensure that it will work well for Windows Vista. But you do want to make choices that are at least at the midpoint in the general price range. You also want to pay special attention to making decisions that give you maximum flexibility later to upgrade individual components as appropriate. This is a good idea for any PC decision, but its especially important for choosing a Windows Vista-ready PC.
Vista is suppose to be out by 8/31/06. Lot's of other good information at the Vista site if you are interested.
http://www.microsoft.com/technet/windowsvista/evaluate/hardware/vistahardware.mspx
IBanker, Tenchu, just so we understand, when Vista is released you will still be buying XP machines.
Just so we understand, because you bought a 64-bit computer, you will only be buying 64-bit software.
If you don't understand the difference between the two statements you should go back to school.
As the article points out, the Evolution client from Novell is available -- what it doesn't say is that it is basically a clone of Outlook and should be acceptable to most businesses.
Why would anyone other than an engineer want to run linux on a laptop?