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FB in the green pre-market.
It's 8:00 am and already close to 250k shares traded.
Likely to be a high volume day again….
Pennant formation, right side of chart. Prices are compressing, should land somewhere around 61.20 pre-earnings.
14% pop is considered an extreme rally, although stock has been beaten down as of late. FB rallies 14-16 % on very positive earnings. Rally could be even more extreme considering stock would be breaking out of consolidation.
Prior earnings I noticed price scaling back a bit, traders unsure what the outcome may be. General sentiment across the board this time around is for positive earnings. I would look for the price to hold in the trading days before earnings.
Today's candle is a rather large hammer, denotes good support as the chart will begin to hammer out a base.
The rest is SWAG. Scientific Wild Ass Guess!
keep this one in your notes…
FB before earnings will trade at $61.22
We will see a 14% pop
Closing price at the end of the AH trading day on earnings $69.53
Nice work! I was not seeing that pattern but good to know. If that pattern holds we should be moving north on Monday.
good DD and thanks for the info. Do you have an idea of the percentage of the leg up when it bounced off these lows? Interesting that you mention this, Investors Business Daily published yesterday that FB is forming a new base from this area.
Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, if you compare today's and yesterday's candlesticks. Not good.
We are back in the tech-sell off funk...hard to shake.
Wild volatility today, not the result I was looking for.
yup..you sold waaayyyyy too early!
I grabbed 20 more on Monday. They are out of the money calls, picked them up dirt cheap and they have 8 weeks of of time premium on the back end after earnings to become deep in the money calls.
If earnings shits the bed, they expire worthless. My risk is capped.
As Warren used to say, be greedy when others are fearful….
Closing in towards $63 in AH trading. Plenty of positive chatter amongst analysts all day today. One of the Fast Money traders recommended FB as the trade tomorrow.
Negative sentiment turned positive fairly quick, although not out of the woods yet. We need another trading week before the street forgets about the tech sell-off.
I would expect a firm level of resistance at $64.30. This may cause it to stall and trade sideways before earnings my guess...
Interesting how we get a little volume and the pumpers start coming out of the wood work….
Time decay is the worst enemy of options. You need the stock to continue it's advance while at the same time fighting against a current of time decay.
If the price move in the underlying option is stong enough you can win. If not, your the salmon that never makes it upstream...
No doubt the analysts will focus in on this area.
My viewpoint is that FB leadership should focus on the company's ability to generate traditional revenue from FB and Instagram platforms. This alone is enough to sustain operations while returning decent returns to shareholders.
This strategy allows FB to develop "experimental" revenue streams such as Oculus and What's App while traditional rev keeps the lights turned on.
They may mention that What's App has already begun some forms of revenue generation. I read earlier that What's App has penned an agreement with a German telecom provider to sell SIM chips?
I believe if Oculus were to produce all of the requested developer kits (75,000 order back-log) this alone would start cash flow generation, and this is before the main headset gets out to the gamer community which will be tripping over each other to get a set.
I am extremly overweight FB. I snapped up a shit load of options on the cheap during the blood bath.
Just remeber, the sell-off was part of a broader tech sell-off. Nothing has changed with FB fundamentals. If anything, we have additional revenue that will be introduced during the earnings call with Instagram monitization.
Not to mention the shorts are tripping over themselves to cover. You're bound to have rebounds like this.
Things are shaping up.
Without consulting the chart, I believe we are back above the 100 day MA.
Once we clear the 50 day MA, we can shake the funk from the sell-off and track hiher back to the 70's
You'll break $60 today.
I beleive 64.30 is the next level of reistance. May hit that prior to earnings, that would be nice.
Keep in mind this earnings call will be the first quarter where Instagram monitization is discussed.
FB is making enough money to keep growth moving forward with expanded user base (both US and abroad--think India and emerging markets) and is still the dominant platform for generating ad revenue. We havent even discussed Instagram which already has a larger user base than Twitter.
Good buying in the last few minutes of trading. Actually closed in the green for once, seems like forever. Investors wanting to hold overnight now?
Nope. I said the top of the gap was $58, looking for a second bounce off $58, although if this failed $55 would be the next stop, the bottom of the gap.
At this point,I would prefer to see the gap close so we can get this bloodbath over with and the stock can continue its upward trend.
I'm watching for that second bounce off the $58 line. If it breaks below, we could have some problems, although I don't see that happening.
I've noticed a strong correlation between FB and the biotech stocks over the prior three weeks. When the biotech's get slammed, they drag down the entire NASDAQ and all of the social media stocks with it.
The good news here is that all social media stocks are suffering and fundamentals for FB have not changed.
Yes the gap exists at $55 but your are assuming the gap will fill to the bottom at $55. Read my earlier post. When gaps fill, they fall back to the previous point of resistance that existed prior to the breakout which was the $58 line. Three prior points of resistance occurred at $58 prior to the stock gapping up.
If in fact the stock were to loose support at $58, yes the next downside move would in fact be $55, although this is not likely to happen because the bounce was too prominent.
The break of the downside channel was broken at $61
Thank you, finally someone dismissing the gap. I've been hearing about a gap at $55 all last week that will get filled. $55 is NOT the gap. The top of the gap is $58 which FB already touched last week. When gaps fill, they fall back to previous point of resistance where the gap breakout occurred, not from the bottom where it started. Look at $58, three solid areas where the chart touched at $58. When assessing resistance, two points are good, but three is better.
Also been hearing about a bear flag forming this week. Nope. That was squashed today as FB broke out of short consolidation pattern before running higher. Next run to the high 60's or low $70's before earnings. Also evidenced in the amount of call buying with strikes going further out on the price horizon.…
If your waiting for a gap to fill, too late. Bus left the station.
where are you guys getting $55 for the gap? The gap is $58, already filled that...
$3 easy if it's listed on the AMEX. Breaking the $1 barrier will get this stock on everyone radar, after that, easy acceleration to $2.50 - $3.00 range.
Gents, not true. Ichan is merely stating that he will use FB as a platform to announce news, similar to what he does with TWTR.
The pullback to 68.68 is more likely. The chart has pulled back and touched that support line on more than one occasion. The next lower support of 65.80 was only touched once, and that was after the Whatsapp announcement, heavy selling occurred while everyone was trying to digest the deal. The lower support level was not a natural pullback.
Where do you see that Barron's article? I'm on their site right now and I don't see any mention of FB at $130 anywhere?
This whole buy out is hard to figure out…I think we are going to suffer some short term pain while the market attempts to digest this deal. I would suspect lots of "tech bubble" talk resurfacing first thing tomorrow morning and a subsequent pull back after that.
Unfortunately I'm now sitting on the sidelines while this whole deal pans out. Any pull back will prove a worth while buying opportunity for the long haul. I'm sure the deal will be valuable for FB down the road, although 19 Billion is tough to digest without calculating future revenue models.
FB has made two runs at the 52 week high; once on Friday, the second attempt this afternoon. I would suspect another run tomorrow. If the overall market is trading higher, even better. A clean break thru of resistance at the 52 week and blue sky after that.
FB currently down 1.8%
But I think those are only the active day and swing traders who took off positions in anticipation of this announcement (folks like ourselves)...
Pandora beat top and bottom...but ticking down
TWTR only added 8M active users in the 3 month qtr. How sad.
All the funds will be flowing back to Mother Facebook!
who knows..that's the million dollar question. I may pare back half my position on Wednesday and jump back in depending upon how FB reacts. If TWTR reports any type of profit, I would expect FB to tick up half that of TWTR. Last week TWTR surged 5% on the backs of FB earnings while FB jumped initially 11%.
Keep in mind that large institutional money has flowed into FB this week, so it would take several days for Hedge funds to flow out. I doubt that would happen because funds typically don't jump in and out like swing traders.
The big boys realize that real opportunity rests in FB. For every 5 minutes that Americans spend on their cell phones, FB commands 1 minute of the users attention. Thats a goldmine for advertisers.
too early. FB up over 2% in terrible market conditions. Lot's of bullishness on FB now with their ability to capture mobile ad revenue. I would not look for a pullback until the $72 level...
8.8% upside tomorrow, based upon technical analysis.
My main issue was what the hell is the CFO doing talking about user metrics, that's an issue for the COO and CEO to address during the conference call. The only thing he should be talking about is the financial statement. I bet you he made an insider purchase after the conference call, trying to drive down the price.
Yes, nimrod CFO during earnings call made a comment that teen usage was decreasing on FB site, although never followed through with statement by saying teens were moving to Instagram, a company FB owns. The stock was up precisely 16 percent when he made that statement, I know because I was watching the level II screen after hours. That one comment cost me close to 14k. Hopefully he keeps his yap shut this time and let the earnings numbers do the talking!
In fact Birdman, I may owe you dinner for such a fine stock tip.
If we break $1.00 i'll even throw in some of that fancy champagne i've been reading about on this message board!
I'm in no hurry, been sitting here since 2010. I’ve seen these weak hands come around many times before. Prior statements were merely from a technical (chart) perspective, likely weak hands from some of the latecomers to the party who stumbled across Daybreak during the recent surge, now taking their thin profits off the table. I expect we will see more of this as we push higher above the 0.50 range.
Much like you, I’m in for the haul, $1.00 plus…hopefully more…
Looks like selling pressure to me. The RSI is weak and the candles are walking the lower half of the Bollinger band. Need good news to establish a support of 0.40 again.