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dilleet
I am delighted with the Google Apple tie in.
Look, I reported my use of Google products and my preferences. I am not enamored with Google, but I am also delighted with the performance of google stock in Rs. Roni's IRA.
gotta go to breakfast. Have good days
Lango, <you could roll the clock back to the 80s>
What may have happened in the past provides little assurance of what will happen in the future, as I tried to tell you when you compared the Mac market share nosedive of the past with what might happen with iPod market share.
Lack of familiarity sounds about right. In other words, there has been nothing compelling enough to drive me to it on a regular basis, other than search. There seems to be nothing in my life that is missing that has me looking for solutions by Google.
g-phone
Has google blown anyone away yet with anything other than search and ads? Search is the only place they have affected my life.
Maybe they will do better at a phone OS than they did with video. Does anyone have an indication that will be the case?
So, I woke up and took a look at Victoria's Inner Harbour, which is lovely this time of the morning, Then I checked out AAPL stuff. It is good to predict that it will be an ok kind of day in AAPL land today. If that prediction is correct it will also be good to hald an oversized position in AAPL calls today.
Of course there is always the possbility that things turn south, right? :), not today, I am thinking, but it is always possible.
I will be in an Exec committee meeting from 8 to noon Pacific time, so I will leave the tick by tick watching to others.
Lango - you're up early today
lango: have no idea, but it's simply impossible for me to believe Apple did anything other than knock the cover off the ball on PC sales.
I have 32% of my portfolio in Jan 130 and 170 calls thinking the same thing :).
Of course, those are partially hedged.
Maybe I should get to know Roni better, haha.
I am bullish AAPL, holding calls and shares, but looky there,
roni also holds some November 150 puts to hedge his long position. Mebbe you don't want to get to know me after all :).
I do not have a clue what will happen in the short term.
I am hoping it happens like it did 3 years ago after October earnings, but Apple is really going to have to knock the cover off the ball for that to happen - unless we get a 5-10% down move before earnings.
The lower we go this week, the less spectacular earnings need to be to cause great leaps of upward share price movement.
That does not mean I want us to go lower, so please do not misunderstand me.
Ahead of the Bell: Apple Target Boosted
Monday October 15, 8:07 am ET
Lehman Brothers Raises Apple Price Target by $30 to $190, Expecting Strong Fiscal 4Q
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Apple Inc. rose in premarket trading Monday, after a Lehman Brothers analyst raised his price target in anticipation of strong fiscal fourth-quarter results.
Lehman's Harry E. Blount said he expected Apple's stock to benefit from strong quarterly results next week, in addition to the release of the Leopard operating system and updated product lines.
Blount raised his price target by $30 to $190, implying upside of nearly 14 percent to Friday's $167.25 closing price, and raised his profit and sales estimates for Apple's fiscal fourth quarter.
Apple's fiscal fourth quarter contains the first full quarter of iPhone sales and a $200 price cut likely accelerated sales toward the end of the period, Blount said.
"We anticipate that Apple will perform better than expectations," Blount wrote.
Blount, who has an "Overweight" rating on the stock, said Apple will continue to grow its market share with updated versions of nearly its entire product line before the holiday season, including Mac desktops and iPods, among other products.
The upcoming release of Leopard should boost sales in Apple's December quarter and give Apple more market share in desktops, Blount said.
Apple reports quarterly results on Oct. 22. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect earnings of 84 cents and sales of $6.05 billion.
Apple's stock rose 91 cents to $168.16 in premarket trading.
More Dubose on Molly, who said to the editors of the Texas Observer:
Investigative reporters are like hunting dogs. Send them out on a story and when they come back with a good one, pat them on the head and say "good dog, good dog. They will go right out and find another one. It is what they are bred and trained to do."
There is a tribute to Molly Ivins on CSPAN2 right now
I have loved her for decades, and these people talking about her, including Maya Angelou, are making me cry. That makes my nose stuffy, damn her.
"She considered me a man of many words but few sentences"
Lou Dubose.
Kudos to Blue
Sacconaghi does not note in his report that Mac laptops, while costlier on average when compared to the entire Windows PC market, are priced about the same as PCs of comparable abilities (Charles Gaba’s System Shootouts site has many examples of this). Apple refuses to make cheap Macs because it wants to maintain its image as a maker of quality computers and because it disdains low-margin hardware. But in doing so, Apple has written off a significant chunk of the PC market.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/appleaday/blog/2007/10/so_thats_where_all_those_mac_l.html
Found it on Google dilleet, but I could have read it wrong, or it could have been about another pitcher in the same article
Goddess knows I have been wrong before
You all are showing your age :)
I loved the match-ups between Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax
and Bob and Don Drysdale
Juan Marichal tried to avoid going head to head against Gibby.
Fergie Jenkins said he was doing acid when he pitched a no-hitter.
The first game I was taken to, Stan Musial hit a homer in the right field porch of Sportsman Park in St. Louis (it had been renamed Busch Stadium by then) :)
I was not too nimble yesterday or today
I had sold (think I reported here, if not then on one of those other boards) 25% of my Jan 130's for 42.30 and another 25% for 42.15.
Panic sold another 25% for 34.00 yesterday (bad roni) and bought back an amount equal to 25% of that intial position this morning for 39.25.
Still holding the Nov 150 puts, thinking that just because they helped me avoid one accident was no reason to get rid of the insurance.
How are you going to get stock data if you iPhone is off? :)
Why, my trusty Dell laptop with the hotel's free wireless service :)
This ain't fun
But I hate to think what it would have been like without those November 150 puts.
Even gold shares got hit way disproportionately to what happened with the price of gold.
Oh well, I'd was up 18% since September 1 and have done very well over the past 3-4 years. This ain't too bad. Hate to think what some of those folks holding gobs of Oct. Apple calls and little else are going through.
Apple 2.0
October 11, 2007
Report: Apple Gains 29% Share of $$$ Notebooks
In the consumer and education market (i.e. excluding business computers), Apple share of the top quintile notebook market is nearly 46%.
Drilling down into Apple’s (AAPL) recent string of boffo quarterly reports, analyst Toni Sacconaghi Jr. of Bernstein Research finds both strength and vulnerability in Steve Jobs’ relentless pursuit of high-margin computer sales.
In his second report since Bernstein initiated coverage of Apple (see here for the first one), Sacconaghi notes that:
* Apple’s global PC market share has increased in 10 of the last 11 quarters,
* unit sales have grown 28% or better in each of the last four quarters
* U.S. notebook sales have been particularly strong, accounting for 47% of Apple’s Mac unit growth and 52% of its revenue in Apple’s most recent quarterly report.
But amid all that good news, he sees risks ahead for Apple investors. It’s tempting, he says, to look at Apple’s slim 3% slice of the global market for PCs and assume that Jobs can easily grow his Mac business at least two fold in the next five years or so — an assumption that helps explain the high multiples in Apple’s current share price.
But if you look at the high-priced markets Apple chooses to play in, says Sacconaghi, you see that it already has a surprisingly dominant market share — without much room for growth.
Take, for example, the market for the most expensive notebook computers. Dividing notebook price ranges into fifths, or quintiles as the statisticians call them, Apple already has a 29% share of the U.S. market for notebook computers in the highest quintile — up “stunningly,” notes Sacconaghi, from 8% three years ago. In the consumer and education market (i.e. excluding business computers), Apple share of the top quintile notebook market is nearly 46%.
http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/10/11/report-apple-gains-29-share-of-notebooks/?source=yah...
Chasky
That is why I sold half of my calls.
You may be a wise man.
I think the Mac number is gonna surprise, and my November 150 puts did nicely today (up close to 13%).
So, I'll hold the remaining calls for now.
Best wishes and good luck.
Gonna leave the iphone on Airplane settings in Canada and take the Verizon phone *grin*
AAPL's leading indicator
Well, I could only wish that were true more often than not :).
Going to be outta town most of next week - but will have access.
I remember a time 3 years ago when I sold Apple before going to Kelowna - it was an October. That was a costly decision, as I recall. Kept saying "It won't go up more, so don't chase it"
Yeah, right. That is part of why I hold a core position now and part of why I am still holding half of those Jan. $130's.
Good fortune to all.
I rotated some of my gains into precious metals (GG, AUY, GRS), and am up to 30% cash now.
Gotta keep some opportunistic buying cash around the portfolios somewhere :).
Lightened up a bit more on Jan 130's at $42.15
AAPL shares and calls now down to about 32% of portfolio :).
Sold 25% of Jan 130's (at 42.30) for 98.6% gain. Those were acquired on Sept. 13. EOM.
Apple over 170 pre-market
It is approaching my personal target, which I have adjusted upward from 174 to 180.
I think I shall be taking profits on some of the calls I hold before the week is out - and will hold some for now. The shares are in a lock box, to quote a certain Apple Board member .
Fidelity. No extra charge. EOM
tomm: Open interest on Jan Calls is soaring.
I'm holding Jan 130's - an increasingly sizable portion of the IRA. I likey.
Where is Waldo :)
A fellow I have been reading over on the SI Apple board, a TA dude
Has had a target of $174 for this run. This morning he wrote that if this morning's gap remains unfilled - new target is $180.
Didn't say unfilled by when though. Do we still have any TA mavens around these parts?
Ron
Here is the graph from Tex's link
Carrier Fees
Apple has said it will receive a cut of the $60 to $220 in monthly fees San Antonio-based AT&T charges iPhone owners as part of a required two-year contract.
Sanford C. Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, the top-ranked computer analyst according to Institutional Investor magazine, calculates AT&T's payout at $15 a month per user.
AT&T and three European wireless carriers due to sell the iPhone in November may pay a combined $715 million to Apple next year, based on an estimated 7 million iPhones sold. Those fees will account for more than a third of Apple's total iPhone sales in 2008, Sacconaghi said.
Apple rose $5.21 to a record $161.45 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares have gained 89 percent since Jobs announced the iPhone Jan. 9.
The company advised users with the now-broken, hacked phones to buy a new one, Sacconaghi said. ``This may deter folks from unlocking in the future.''
At least three groups claimed in August to have programs that alter the iPhone to work on networks belonging to companies such as T-Mobile USA Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc. A New Jersey teenager, George Hotz, posted the first guide on how to hack the phone on his Web site. The process involves soldering the circuitry and modifying the software.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=AAPL:US&sid=azyzt8HY...
Advertising Age says
Annual Survey Shows Social-Networking Split Between Sexes
By Beth Snyder Bulik
Published: October 04, 2007
YORK, Pa. (AdAge.com) -- They love Apple, shop at Target, use Facebook online and are split on whether they adore or despise the Geico cavemen. They wish they were better at sports, watch TV more often than surf the web and view a lot of YouTube videos, but generally don't create them.
Apple's iPhone was one of college students most anticipated new products.
Apple's iPhone was one of college students most anticipated new products.
Meet the next generation of leaders and consumers: today's college students. Anderson Analytics' third annual fall brand survey of college students queried their likes and dislikes as well as brand affinities and media consumption of the 18-to-24 set and came up with plenty of lessons for marketers.
and later in the article
Influence
While the college group is one of the smallest demographically in the U.S. -- about 18 million projected by the U.S. Census this year vs. around 80 million baby boomers -- it is one of the most influential. And the one paid most homage by marketers.
"They have huge impact on what their parents buy, and then they have their own money, more than any other generation before them, and of course they are the consumers of tomorrow," Mr. Anderson said, adding that marketers also target the 18-to-24 crowd to reach society at large. "In America, everyone wants to be younger, so we look to younger people. We think they're happier than us and we want to be like them, resulting in a younger-targeted marketing message," he said.
Not surprisingly, the brand that ruled with this group was Apple. It ranked as the No. 2 overall best brand by 17% of the students; ranked Nos. 1 and 2 as most anticipated products with iPhone and new iPod versions; ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in product recommendations with iPod followed by Apple products in general; and ranked No. 6 in most popular commercials.
http://adage.com/article?article_id=120919
I have some November 150's. EOM
164.05 after hours. Holy Crap boys and girls
We're gonna be rich
Hit 163 after hours. EOM
But we know how that story ends.
Past performance is no....and all that.
Wouldn't a more correct statement be we all know how the early Mac story ended.
I guess you would be predicting that the iPod/iTunes story will have the same ending - down to around 3% market share by when, would you say?
From the referred to Mac OS Rumors site
If the AppleTV's lack of an optical drive has been an issue for you, look no further than a soon to be announced update to the popular iDevice for that very issue to be addressed. Also, the entry-level model will be dropped to $249 with a 60GB or maybe even 80GB HDD (depending on market conditions about six or seven weeks from now), and two other models at $299 and $399 sporting 120-160 and 200-250GB drives respectively. The optical drive may not be available on all models, another vagary of our most recent source reports on the subject. More on the AppleTV 2.0 and its across-the-board hardware/software upgrades later this week when the key embargo expires!
The grapevine is increasingly excited about a series of Apple Events between now and mid-December, introducing no less than five all-new products including at least one entirely new Mac product line -- almost certainly the much anticipated Macbook Nano.
We have the privilege of being able to exclusively report on information provided to Mac OS Rumors by one of our oldest and most reliable sources in Cupertino: the Mac Mini is dead.....Long Live the Mac Nano!
I am not sure exactly what this means, but
There is a very high correlation :) - credit for find goes to a fellow on siliconinvestor
Blue,
Higher income tax, methinks - but overall we are a moderate tax state. Sucks though, in recession state revenues nose-dive, in good times they skyrocket - finally this last year the state started a rainy day fund - if they keep adding to it in good times they will be able to take some of the pain off the boom-bust cycle.
I think Apple is going to do all right this quarter .
I have averaged up on Jan 2008 $130 calls and am, of course happy with their performance. That position is partially hedged with some November 150 puts.
I am expecting to make some more money this year and next. I am expecting that, before it is all done, retirement a few years hence will be enhanced a little.
Those are my expectations *smile*
Friends from Missouri are in town and are going to the Apple store today. Something about they have sales tax in Missouri. After 7 years in Oregon it is odd to be out of state and have to pay an amount larger than what is on the price sticker when one gets to the check-out counter.
The DailyPrincetonian reports on a growing trend amongst at least some universities.
The Princeton University newspaper reports that Princeton's Mac marketshare has been rising dramatically, with 40 percent of students and faculty currently using a Mac as their personal computer. This number is up from only 10% of Mac users on campus only 4 years ago. And this number could still be growing. This year, the University's Student Computer Initiative reportedly sold more Macs than PC's, with 60 percent of students choosing a Mac, up from 45 percent just last year. Students were offered a choice of Dell, IBM and Apple computers.
This follows a recent report that looked at a similar trend at many other colleges. According to a separate Pioneer Press survey, Dartmouth is up to 55% freshman with Macs (up from 30% in 2005), University of Virginia with 20% of freshman with Macs (up from 17% in 2006), and Cornell with 21% dorm network users with a Mac (up from 5% between 2000-2002).
PioneerPress attributes the uptick in sales to the popularity of the iPod, security of Mac OS X, design and ease of use.
These numbers are much higher than the general population, in which Mac marketshare numbers have been hovering around 5-6%. (All of these figures may not be directly comparable, as marketshare numbers typically represent new sales in a particular time-period rather than the installed base. Regardless, the numbers are still significantly higher than would be expected.)
http://www.macrumors.com/2007/10/05/mac-marketshare-at-universities-booming/
We have Cub fan friends in Playa del Carmen
and they watch all the games at their favorite bar.