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"How do you manage the transition ..."
lango
you do not seem to have read or understood the point at all.
<Hmmm. Quite a while back I mused about this and the reaction was a fairly universal thumbs down. Will the reaction be the same if Apple goes this route with the idea emanating from god-Steve?
>
Of course :).
On your iPhone OS points:
How do you manage the transition from the subscription revenue model - justified solely on the basis those OS upgrades, in my memory, to charging for iPhone OS upgrades?
That would be much chutzpah even for Apple.
I have been watching AAPL's cup and handle form, with some help from more technically oriented friends.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24994513/site/14081545
Scott Redler, a market technician with T3 Capital, says he sees some important signals in the charts of some of the major tech names. "Basically, big cap tech looks good right now," he said. Of course, other fundamental factors could affect these trends, and there's no guarantee they will perform as expected.
"Apple has a perfect cup and handle formed. That's one of the most accurate bullish formations in the stock market as far as technicals are concerned. The first buying point was triggered today," he said. If Apple crosses above the $189 to $191 range on heavy volume, it could move up to $250 or $260.
.Mac overhaul
Maybe we'll get some of what you have been writing about for quite some time.
http://www.importgenius.com/blog/iphone
May 23, 2008
Since mid-March, Apple Inc. and its logistics partners have imported 188 ocean containers of a product type never before declared on its shipping manifests.
With iPhones currently out of stock at many Apple stores, including its flagship outlets in New York City, rumors abound that the company is winnowing stocks in preparation for a new 3G version of the phone.
Last month Citi analysts Richard Gardner and Yeechang Lee predicted that Apple would announce the new 3G iPhone at its June 9th World Developers Conference in San Francisco. Meanwhile, Dvice.com reports that AT&T has told its employees that they cannot take vacation time from June 15 to July 12 to enable full staffing for an "exciting Summer Promotional Launch."
Now data from U.S. customs records now seem to confirm this prediction, according to ImportGenius.com. By analyzing thousands of U.S. customs records for Apple Computer, employees of the search engine for container shipment data identified a major spike in imports generated by a new product type.
“They have never before reported this product on their customs declarations,” says Ryan Petersen of ImportGenius.com. “The fact that they are importing millions of units, combined with dwindling stocks of the first generation of iPhones, clearly supports the Citi analysts predictions.”
Two of Apple’s long-time manufacturing partners for desktop computers —Hon Hai Precision Corp. and Quanta Computer—have been rumored to be working on the newest generation of the popular cell phone.
On March 19 Quanta delivered 20 ocean containers of merchandise, described on the Bills of Lading as “electric computers,” to Apple, Inc. Neither Apple, Quanta, nor any other company has ever used this product description for any shipments to the U.S.
The advanced features of the iPhone make it perfectly legitimate for Apple to declare the products as computers, rather than telephones. By doing this, the company may hope to avoid the attention that a massive influx of phones may bring about, while simultaneously maintaining secrecy as to the true identify of the phone’s manufacturers.
Over the last few months shipments of “desktop computers” and other devices did not fall off, indicating that these “electric computers” represent a new product for the company rather than a simple renaming for their Customs declarations.
The initial shipments were followed on March 27, April 28, May 6 and May 17 with an additional 44 containers—each containing an estimated 40,000 units of the new phone. The sixteen containers imported by Apple Inc. itself—as opposed to the Quanta subsidiary—were delivered on March 19 and 27 to the Jonestown, Pa. facilities of Ingram Micro, Apple’s U.S. distribution partner.
The Quanta Computer USA shipments were delivered to that company’s distribution center in Freemont, Ca. Meanwhile, on the exact same dates as the shipments above, Schenker AG, another of Apple’s distribution partners, imported a total of 67 containers of this new product type from an undisclosed manufacturer in Shanghai, China.
Several of those products carried the Apple computer name in what appeared to be an accidental disclosure on the customs record. With arrival notification addresses in Vancouver, Canada, many of Schenker’s shipments appeared destined for the Canadian market. Apple has thus far not made the iPhone available in Canada, however Rogers Wireless recently announced that it would begin offering the item shortly. They declined to offer more specifics about when they would start selling the phones.
Apple Inc’s most recent shipment of the new products, Bill of Lading # HLCUSHA0803FTFR8, arrived at the port of New York on the Vessel NYK Delphinus on May 17th. That shipment contained 504 cartons, weighing 7140 kg, of the vaguely described “electric computer.”
Where Quanta sent all previous shipments to Apple—including 828 ocean containers of “desktop computers” since March—through a subsidiary, the new products were exported in Quanta’s own name. The change may reflect heightened secrecy surrounding the new products.
Merrill ups target, Goldman Sachs adds to conviction list - AAPL up pre-market.
Have nice holiday weekends. We're headed north for a conference that runs over Memorial Day every year - but we do have tickets for the Mariners and Red Sox on Monday evening.
Both the news on the Airport yesterday and now the ball game brought our friend Dilleet to mind. I'll hoist one to him at the ballpark on Monday.
Apple's AirPort grabs 10.6% share of 802.11n WiFi market
By Prince McLean-Appleinsider
While Apple's share of the entire US PC market hovers between 6% and 8% depending on the source, its share of the 802.11n WiFi base station market is even higher.
Stephen Baker, an analyst for market research firm NPD Group, told AppleInsider that Apple took 10.6% of the market in unit volume last month. He added that the company's revenue and profit share on sales of the routers are even higher.
Last year, Apple noted on its website that the AirPort Extreme was ranked by NPD as the top selling 802.11n router. While Apple no longer advertises that, Baker said that the AirPort Extreme has been the top selling 802.11n router for five of the last nine months.
Last week, the analyst told Macworld that the AirPort Extreme lead US retail sales as the top selling router in April, while the new Time Capsule topped sales as the most popular Network Attached Storage device. Despite their overlapping functionality, it was reported that strong sales of Time Capsule were augmenting sales of the AirPort Extreme base station rather than cannibalizing them.
Combined with sales of the compact AirPort Express, which was upgraded to support the faster 802.11n standard in March, Apple took fourth place in overall 802.11n base station sales, behind Cisco's Linksys brand, D-Link, and Netgear.
........
Additionally, Apple's retail and online stores are selling AirPort base stations to new Mac users without any competition. "This stuff is just flying off the shelf in the Apple stores," Baker told Macworld. "They don’t get nearly enough credit for the value proposition that the stores bring."
Apple's AirPort line also uses proprietary software, in addition to custom Mac and Windows client software for configuration rather than using a webpage interface as most base stations do. That may limit the appeal of its AirPort line among some Windows users, but it also allows Apple to install support for unique features that differentiate the AirPort line, including Bonjour automatic printer sharing and AirPort shared disk discovery as well as AirTunes audio streaming support from iTunes to an AirPort Express or Apple TV.
Brisk base station sales suggest that Apple's "fourth leg" behind its Mac, iPod and iTunes business, and the iPhone is not the emerging Apple TV but rather AirPort, a business segment that has performed well, albeit almost invisibly, since its introduction back in 1999, two years before the iPod.
Blue - if those numbers are accurate
I think most of us agree that their direction is accurate, and that they are within the ballpark.
Give that and the rapidly approaching roll-out of the G3 iPhone, I am as heavy and as long AAPL as I have ever been - and that is saying something
Shares, and
January 2009 $180 calls and
January 2010 $160 and $240 calls
There are, of course risks. I assume those. I'll let ya'll know when I sell any of those positions.
5:14 AAPL Apple: Intel confirms Atom-based larger iPhone (mini-tablet)? - MacRumors (187.55 -2.41) -Update-
MacRumors reports according to ZDNet.de, INTC Manager Hannes Schwaderer confirmed that AAPL would be using the Intel Atom processor in a future version of the iPhone. The new model will reportedly be a larger model with a 720x480 pixel display, correlating with circulating rumors about a mini-tablet device rumored to be coming from Apple. He goes on to say that an upgraded version of the current form factor of iPhone would also exist as a 3G-model. While Schwaderer calls the larger device a "version of the iPhone", it seems clear that it refers to the rumored mini-tablet device. Some rumors have suggested that it would be introduced at WWDC.
<This guy says it is about time to sell aapl>
Interesting that he seemed to say nothing about the increased addressable market for the iPhone (global roll-out), or the effect that the subscription accounting will have on earnings over the next 6 quarters or so, or about increasing market share for Mac computers.
I wonder why that is? Could it be possible that his is a shallow analysis?
You be the judge.
Damn
There's a train leaving nightly called when all is said and done
Keep me in your heart for while
Congrats Chasky.
I am pleased with my Jan 2009 $180's and my Jan 2010 1060's abd 230's.
The Jan 09's are almost green now :)
Apple Inc AAPL:NASDAQ
Vodafone to sell Apple's iPhone in 10 countries
MarketWatch
2:30 AM ET
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Vodafone Group said Tuesday that it's signed an agreement with Apple Inc. to sell the iPhone in ten of its markets. Starting later in 2008 Vodafone will offer the iPhone in Australia, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Italy, India,Portugal, New Zealand, South Africa and Turkey.
Good luck to you Chasky!! EOM
Bootz,
Look at it this way, perhaps
Microsoft did so much to help Apple with the release of Vista
Maybe that will help when considering the downside of holding Yahoo
I know what you mean spitsong
Here the WAAAL's I bought in mid-Feb and mid-March are only up 114%. Well, maybe I'll luck out and they will be up some more before January of 2010....you reckon?
Or, who knows, they could expire worthless
From Businessweek-
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_19/b4083036428429.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story
Soon after Michele Goins became chief information officer at Juniper Networks (JNPR) in February, she decided to respond to the growing chorus of Mac lovers among the networking company's 6,100 employees. For years, many had used Apple's (AAPL) computers at home and clamored for them in the office as well. So she launched a test, letting 600 Juniper staffers use Macs instead of the standard-issue PCs that run Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows operating system. As long as the extra support costs aren't too high, she plans to open the floodgates. "If we opened it up today, I think 25% of our employees would choose Macs," she says.
and later in the article, by Peter Burrows
What's less obvious is that the enthusiasm is starting to spill over into the corporate market. It's a people's revolution, of sorts, with workers increasingly pressing their employers to let them use Macs in the office. In a survey of 250 diverse companies that has yet to be released, the market research firm Yankee Group found that 87% now have at least some Apple computers in their offices, up from 48% two years ago. "There's always been this archipelago of Macintosh use" among graphic artists and advertising managers, says Scott Teissler, chief information officer of Turner Broadcasting System (TWX). "My sense is that CIOs are more willing to see that expand without putting up as much resistance as in the past."
Others are sure to follow suit. Mark Slaga, chief information officer of Dimension Data , a large computer services firm based in suburban Johannesburg, says he has received 25 e-mails recently from employees who want permission to use Macs at work. So far he has refused, because he doesn't want to hire people to provide Mac tech support, but "it'll happen someday," he concedes. "Steve Jobs doesn't need a sales force because he already has one: employees like the ones in my company."
I am very pleased.
Very.
How about you'se all?
The Jan 2010 $160's
Bought in Feb and March have just rounded first base, on the way to at least a double.
Actually, I think they will end up doing far better than that.
Moral of the story - keep dry powder, convince yourself to buy when everyone else seems to be puking in the street, give yourself lots of time before expiration and hold.
I think that is it anyway :)
I just sent this to Fidelity
I have been using my iPhone to access Fidelity for the past 8 months. The full Fidelity site with the Safari browser works just fine.
Last week you started redirecting me (on my iPhone) to a crippled fidelity site - guess it is one that was designed for customers with inadequate mobile web access.
The redirect was automatic - there seemed to be nothing I could to to once again get the regular Fidelity website that looks the same on my iPhone as it does on my computers.
Please, oh please do not make me use this crippled, dummied-down mobile site that users of other mobile platforms must need. I do not need it and do not want it.
Thanks so much
Ron
Citi raises target to $248
Quick Call — Apple remains our top hardware pick through calendar year-end, with a new $248 12-month target, following a 7-8% revenue beat with upside from all product lines in 1CQ08. A steady stream of new product announcements between June and September should allow the company to continue to gain significant market share in PCs and handsets during
2HCY08.Buy/High Risk 1H
Price (23 Apr 08) US$162.89
Target price US$248.00
https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SNA18403.pdf
glad I bought those puts this afternoon
We may be toast for a bit, but hedged toast is easier to swallow.
I got ambivalent about going into this afternoon unhedged
So I used the profits from the May 155 put trade, added a bit from the account, and bought some May 150 puts for 4.75.
Would rather have this comfort and hold my long LEAPS and have these puts expire worthless than to not have the hedge.
But, somewhow the song Crazy is going through my head right now *grin*
I sold those May 155 puts this morning for a 47% gain.
My long positions are now un-hedged
May the goddesses have mercy on my account balances *grin*
chasky,
Good luck. I am holding Jan 09 180's and Jan 2010 $160's. I am comfortable with both of those. I think I would be kindy nervous with July 2008 $200's. Might hedge them or put at least some kind of mental stop on them.
Personally, I partially hedged my long positions with May $155 puts this afternoon. I may have written that earlier, but I just got home from meetings since 3 pm Pacific time and I have no memory yet
I bought some May 155 puts to cover part of my long positions a few minutes ago.
The link was from another board. Purports to be a history of Apple guidance and actual results.
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2401/2244405938_07dfcf6d6d_o.jpg
But Oppy could spoil the party with his guidance.
It would be temporary spoilage, IMO. Important if one holds short-term options - but I am not to terribly concerned with Jan 09 and Jan 2010 LEAPs and shares.
Imagine the back to school quarter - WOWZERS.
Imagine all the people
typing on a Mac oh ho
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one *grin*
This article is pretty consistent with my thoughts
On the Mac anyway. I think Apple's mobile platform is going to rock also, but I know less about that area
http://seekingalpha.com/article/72899-apple-to-experience-market-share-madness?source=yahoo
Well, Apple is up close to
4 1/2 bucks here at 12 minutes after 5 pacific time. You picked a good time. I am delighted to hold the Jan 2010's I bought in Feb and April and the handful of Jan 180's I held in January have revived and are doing well.
I am pickled tink. The Mac is on a growth move that I believe will last for years. The iPhone is doing okey dokey and we will see what happens this summer with the G3 intro - but the mobile platform will do well also, I predict.
I am very, very pleased that this is all happening 3 years before my planned retirement date.
No hijack
That was a report from a Brit in Mexico who is not an Apple fan but who loves his iPhone
Report on hacked iPhone use in Mexico
My iphone experience started last week. Finally got my iphone hacked open to work in Playa !
Not really a fan of Apple, but this cell is the cat's miaow.... Surfing the net whilst lying on a sun bed at Zenzi (the beach is really wide there right now) is brilliant. Who is winning the latest F1 race ? Lets just check...
Can't make my iphone pick up my mail from hotmail automatically but maybe somone knows something I don't? I can do it via safari but I would like it to work automatically.
Otherwise anyone thinking of getting one of these phones, go for it its soooo fun !
Thinking of dilleet reminds me some of
Warren Zevon's song, Keep Me In Your Hear for Awhile
I never get through the song without crying
This version has a slide show tribute with it
Thirty page report on iPhone survey
done by Rubicon available here
http://www.rubiconconsulting.com/downloads/whitepapers/Rubicon-iPhone_User_Survey.pdf
It has been a pretty good month for AAPL.
I think they should do a ad campaign aiming for the tax rebate money *laugh*
Thanks to all of you!
We're going to try to catch an early ferry over to the mainland and get on the road home to the cats and the yard that will need mowed
AAPL gave us a nice present yesterday! I'll be putting up some photos and will post the link when I get it done.
It is lovely here, but not near as warm as the Yucatan
Today is our 30th anniversary. Writing this from Lopz Island as I look out the kitchen window of the little cabin we have rented. Today we will take the ferry over to Friday Harbor for lunch. Tomorrow back home. Has been delightful to have little TV and no laptop
Ron
I am on a couple of Mexico discussion boards. One is primarily oriented to tourists and the Caribbean coast. Those folks are going nuts excited about the Adobe thing.
Seems to be viewed as potentially saving them from photobucket, among other things.
"You can't deny that the Apple Mac is becoming more prevalent in businesses; in fact, we have seen Mac usage double in last year," said Ilan Kasaan, director of product management, Cisco WebEx. "We want to ensure that all of our customers have a successful experience, and as with all of our solutions, we are consistently upgrading to meet the demands of our growing user base."
The expanded support for Mac OS X Leopard spans the entire Cisco WebEx collaboration suite to ensure Mac users receive the reliability, speed and support similar to what PC users enjoy.
http://www.redorbit.com/news/technology/1312009/cisco_webex_expands_support_for_apple_mac_users_across_collaboration/index.html?source=r_technology
I think Morgan Stanley had some nice comments this morning - one of the majors did anyway.
Rumors of gazillions of 3G iPhones ordered.
Good technicals - according to some technical analysts
Cramer said let it drop 8 - 10 points before buying it.
Those are all possibilities. I like it. The Jan 2010's I bought in mid Feb and mid March are well above water. The Jan 2009's are no longer on life support, but are still in the hospital :).