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Very cool!!!
Best wishes to you and your family!!
iPhone 3Gs Now Outnumber First Generation iPhones
Michael Arrington
Despite a weak battery and questions about how fast it connects to 3G networks, some time in the next week more than 6 million iPhone 3Gs will be in people’s hands around the world. What that means is that the second generation device has outsold the original iPhone just seven weeks after going on sale. They actually may already have done so.
It took Apple nearly a year to sell 6 million first generation iPhones. A million 3Gs were sold in the first weekend the device was on sale—it took Apple 74 days to sell a million of the first gen iPhones.
According to our sources, Foxconn continues to build iPhones for Apple at the rate of 800,000 units per week, with production ramping up as fast as possible. (Businesweek is hearing similar numbers from its sources—150,000 a day). Apple is on pace to sell more than 40 million of the devices in the next year. At what point is it no longer considered a niche device in the cell phone world?
The best part is that iPhone App developers who are establishing a position now in the iTunes App store will be be able to ride this growth. Hold on tight.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/26/iphone-3gs-now-outnumber-first-generation-iphones/
Roni: I guess we need to wait for RIMM's announcement....
There will be multiple milestones, that is for sure.
Apple's horse, the iPhone, seems to be jumping over the fences without too much trouble. Not to say everything has been perfection, but certainly it appears to be exceeding expectations.
"Nokia had 90 million application downloads during the past two years," said Nokia spokesman Kari Tuutti. "Consumer awareness is on the rise, and applications will play an increasingly important role in the future."
Apple earlier this month, said it had 60 million downloads from its online software site called App Store in its first month. Apple said most of the applications were free, but added it sold $1 million in applications each day.
Any questions?
PS - that is during the first month for Apple. I imagine they will surpass Nokia's 90 million sometime this month, if they have not already.
It's the ecosystem. Game, set match?
iPhone numbers
Gene Munster, usual Apple Bull, has an estimate for ~4.5 million this quarter.
We'll find out by the October earnings report at the latest
I predict that this quarter's numbers will be at least 50% higher than that. I do not think analysts will be disappointed. Most of them are well under the number published in BusinessWeek.
40-45 million
Yeah, it does seem like a lot.
It seems consistent, though, with a couple of different methods I have run across for estimating production - one based on IMEI numbers and another based on something else that I do not remember right off hand.
I do not think it depends on the People's Republic, or on another model. I think, according to what I have read of production estimates, Apple is at the level of production it needs to hit 40 million phones by a year from now.
There were 20 some countries added today, with roughly another 30 to go before the end of the year. We may have to get used to thinking in big numbers.
BusinessWeek - Apple's Ambitious iPhone 3G Plans
It intends to make at least 40 million iPhones in the next year; selling so many will hinge on global success and fixing connection glitches
by Peter Burrows
Forecasting iPhone sales is one of tech's toughest guessing games. Since Apple's iPhone 3G came storming out of the gate with 1 million units sold in the three days after it went on sale July 11, analysts have scrambled to come up with a reliable forecast for how many of the devices the consumer electronics maker will sell in the coming years.
Many analysts expect Apple (AAPL) to sell around 11 million iPhone 3Gs in 2008 and another 25 million in 2009. But perhaps the most optimistic forecast is from Piper Jaffray (PJC) analyst Gene Munster, who expects the company to sell 13 million this year and 45 million next year.
While final sales can't be known until after the fact, clues are emerging as to Apple's production plans. As of mid-August, they were ambitious, BusinessWeek has learned. Apple plans to build 40 million to 45 million iPhone 3Gs in the 12 months through August 2009, according to a person familiar with the company's plans. The low end of that range is 52% more than the 26 million Munster expects the company to sell in that time. Apple boosted its production plans when initial sales proved stronger than the company expected, says the person, who requested anonymity. On launch day, the company expected to build 30 million iPhone 3Gs in 12 months. Apple declined to comment beyond reiterating that it expects to reach a stated goal of selling 10 million iPhone 3Gs in 2008.
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/aug2008/tc20080821_199140.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Rising iPhone browser share points to sales of 5 million 3G units
I read this earlier today.
I sure enough hope they are correct :).
Closed closer in calls yesterday and today (Sept and Oct) at a profit. Holding Jan 09 $160' and Jan 2010 $180s.
It would be dandy with me iffen these analysts were correct, even though I think they are conservative and there is a probability we will see rising estimates after this quarters results are announced, if not before then.
Well, it is Friday again.
Probably another 500k to 1 million iPhones produced in the past week
About a week before the iPhone roll-out into another 20 countries - some of which should be pretty big for iPhone sales.
Another week of young people getting ready for college by purchasing a Mac and getting a Touch.
The Apple platforms continue to grow this week. And next week. And the week after that. To rephrase the Bard:
Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow
How I love this petty pace from day to day.
In AAPL land :).
I am off to work in a few minutes with some limit orders in. If AAPL were to drop down to $176, I probably will have added to my October $165's. If it were to drop another buck or two, I will have likely added to Jan. 2009 $160's.
I'm not expecting that to happen, but if it does - I'll be all right with it.
OT: Gold
After selling my last precious metal position in April, I bought back in this morning with GDX Jan 2009 $36 calls for 2.40.
Yeah, but I think it is a mistake to categorize the iPhone as a handset.
It is not. It is not even an email machine that does voice, like the Blackberries.
It is a handheld mobile internet appliance/digital media player that does voice calls.
It is, for the time being, a best of class hybrid.
As soon as decent VOIP apps for the Touch appear, it will be a best of class mobile internet appliance/digital media player that does VOIP calls.
It is going to be interesting times, these next few years :)
sinclap
I think you're on the high side :).
I don't think you get there by January 2009 even combining the Touch with the iPhone. I thought 20 million was plenty darn aggressive.
We'll know the real number sometime in January.
Best Buy
I spent a little this afternoon reviewing the account in which I do most of my AAPL options trading. It has been a volatile year :).
I am long and I also have dry powder. It will be interesting to see the market reaction to this news. While it well could be muted, Apple has been strong the past week, and in that environment a little news can go a long way. Mostly it reinforces the case that supply is ramping nicely. I'm guessing that it will approach one million phones a week by the end of this quarter, from about 600-700 thousand a week now.
My estimate is for 20 million phones from its introduction in July to the end of the year. That may be a bit aggressive. It is more dependent on supply than on demand. but if the parts are there, I think the demand will soak up that many by the end of the year.
Closed 2/3rds of the October $165's and 1/2 of the Jan 2009 $160's
I was holding this morning.
Very pleased.
Still holding rest of those positions, shares and Jan 2010 $180's
Jim Goldman from CNBC on the $30 million of App Store downloads.
Once again, Apple has seen the future, built a bridge to it, and is taking consumers along for the journey. It's extraordinary that the company has once again seized on another electronic ecosystem, in much the same way iTunes didn't so much as invent downloaded digital entertainment as it did re-invent it. And iPhone is the direct beneficiary of this ingenuity, proving once again that the device isn't merely a "smart phone," but Apple's next-generation "platform."
You just don't see this kind of grassroots market place support and development excitement around the sector's biggest players, like Nokia[NOK 27.07 --- UNCH ], Microsoft [MSFT 28.13 --- UNCH ] and Research in Motion [RIMM 133.75 --- UNCH ]. And I'm not saying Apple will eclipse them any time soon. But when and if that does happen, Apple's App Store is the kind of thing that can sure speed it up.
exit barriers
It is more than the Apps
It is more than just Apple
It is the ecosystem,
hardware, software, accessory vendors, social connections, Mobile Me, and the all important iTunes
There are still spots within the eco-sphere to be filled They will be.
I think there is a good chance of it all working out as a massive wealth creation machine over the next few years.
The fable of the goose and the golden egg come alive
That would make a good Pixar/Disney movie :)
CSFB: - Rated (AAPL) Outperform, target $200.
Key factors are enabling Mac momentum to defy macro conditions. We believe Mac performance is due to several unique drivers that were not present in prior downturns. We anticipate that Apple will continue to grow at a multiple of the overall market for many years to come. iPhone economics have changed for the better. We provide a comparative analysis of the old, revenue sharing iPhone business model and the new, subsidy-based model. After considering the economic costs of iPhone unlocking, we find that the new business model is likely to be far more profitable for Apple over the long-term. Apple's content strategy adds customer switching costs to the iPhone model. As new users invest in software applications and iTunes content for the iPhone, we contend that Apple is once again building material switching costs into its model.
Not doing as well as last year but there is still time :)
From your keyboard to the markets ears :).
I'm a little over 40% cash after yesterday profitable sales to close some August and September calls. Holding a small October $165 position and some Jan 2010 $180's.
May add to the Octobers on a large enough dip, and waiting somewhat patiently for the Jan 2011's to become available this September, I believe.
I hear Apple is cranking out some iPhones.
Morningstar fair value estimate for ACAS is ~ $31, but they report a high level of uncertainty about their fair value estimate.
Hope some of ya'll have been riding this wave with
some calls. I closed out some August and Septembers today - the Septembers were bought yesterday near the open and were very pleasant. Don't trust things enough to hold them longer at this point.
Holding some Octobers and January 2010's.
Chasky, you out there? Tex, how are you doing?
Let's celebrate
quack quack
It wants more
Work-related iPhone use yesterday.
I was at a planning retreat for a program for which I do a lot of data work. We were at a place that had free wifi - there were about 10 of us at the meeting. The program director made a statement about the demographics of our college's enrollments that didn't sound right, so I pulled out the iPhone and very rapidly went to the Spring 2008 Credit Student Fact sheet that my office publishes and provided the correct information.
4 people at the meeting said "I want one of those"
Turner Investments' take on Apple and the iPhone - mostly iPhone
On the first day that Apple’s new iPhone 3G was introduced in July, a host of chagrined buyers were unable to activate it, which prompted The New York Times to refer to it sardonically as the iCan’t. Nevertheless, we think the iPhone 3G will ultimately prove to be the iCan -- a positive catalyst to advance a long-term global mega-trend known as mobile connectivity, i.e., the ability of consumers to gain access to information and digital applications any time, anywhere, and through any wired or wireless medium.
Over time, we expect the iPhone’s technical sophistication, easy-to-use features, increasingly affordable price, and plethora of customized third-party applications will make Apple a major global competitor in smart phones. And smart phones are the key to mobile connectivity, especially in emerging nations, which we think present the greatest growth market for telecommunications in the years ahead.
Also includes of list of other companies predicted to benefit from the coming mobile connectivity craze
http://www.turnerinvestments.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/commentary.latest/commentary_section/Sector+Focus/CSID/387
Telefonica to launch iPhone in LatAm on Aug 22
Not as many sales there as in India, Singapore and the Phillipines, I predict, but no insignificant either.
MADRID, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Spain's Telefonica <TEF.MC> will launch Apple's <AAPL.O> third generation iPhone in Latin America on Aug. 22, it
said on Wednesday.
The iPhone will be sold initially in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Peru and Uruguay, it said, adding that details on prices will be announced in the next few days.
iPhone in India this month
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bharti Airtel Ltd., India's largest mobile-phone operator, will introduce the iPhone 3G in the country on Aug. 22, part of a 70-nation rollout of the faster, cheaper upgrade to Apple Inc.'s mobile handset.
India, which this year will auction licenses and spectrum for 3G services, added more wireless users in June than China, the only larger market by total number of subscribers. Apple's iPhone will compete with handsets from Nokia Oyj and HTC Corp. for an increasing number of business-phone users in India, who also want to take video, music and pictures.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=AAPL%3AUS&sid=azHOKd7fZhxc
Enterprise Mac adoptions at 'highest since the late 80s' - Yankee Group
Tue, 08/05/2008 - 07:02 — Andy Space
Fresh research from the Yankee Group reports a growing corporate marketshare for Apple, with the analysts observing the Mac to be "gaining significant momentum among corporate users."
The research, published yesterday and penned by analyst, Laura DiDio, states: "Don't look now but Apple Mac hardware and the accompanying OS X 10.x operating system software are gaining significant momentum among corporate users."
The report cites a new Yankee Group web-based survey of 750 global IT administrators and C-level executives. This survey found nearly four out of five businesses -approximately 80 per cent - have Macs and OS X installed in their networks.
"Although the Apple Mac hardware and OS X operating systems still represent a small niche, adoption and acceptance of Mac hardware and operating system software are growing at a steady and sustained pace not seen since the late 1980s," DiDio observes.
As explained, survey responses indicate that use of Apple products in a corporate environment is much more pervasive and complex than previously thought. Nearly one-quarter, or close to 25 per cent, of the survey respondents have a significant number - greater than 30 or 50 - of Apple Macs and Mac OS X present in their corporate networks, the analyst said.
Cool technologies such as Safari, iChat, FileVault, Time Machine and new bundled applications within Mac OS X 10.5 are also boosting enterprise adoption, the analyst said.
http://9to5mac.com/mac_party
I read that iPhone 2.01 with bug fixes is now available eOM
Foxconn producing 800k iPhones a week - rumor
August 4, 2008
Foxconn Building 800,000 iPhones A Week
Michael Arrington
Foxconn, the Taiwanese electronics giant that produces the iPhone 3G for Apple, has ramped up production to 800,000 units per week, says a source close to Apple with direct knowledge of the numbers. This is “above current full capacity” and there may be some concerns with quality control.
Apple sold just 6 million of its first generation iPhones.
Foxconn factories will be able to ramp production up significantly over time, says our source. But at current sell rates, the company is producing iPhones at a run rate of over 40 million units per year, well beyond early estimates of demand for the product of 25 million over the 3G product lifecycle.
Apple is continuing to add countries - the iPhone is available in 23 countries today, and another 50 will be added this year. We’ve heard that Foxconn was initially told to expect sales of up to 40 million units in the first year, but that those numbers are being revised upwards sharply.
About 1 billion mobile phones were sold worldwide in 2007, says Gartner (Nokia sold about 435 million of them).
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/04/foxconn-building-800000-iphones-a-week/
One major stock and fund rating operation,
named after la estrella de la mañana, after the 3Q report, ran its numbers
and on July 22nd assigned AAPL a fair value estimate of $189, with a suggested buy point considerably below that and a suggest sell point considerably higher than that.
NewHerb wrote: The iPhone is a real kick. I can see where I'll be dollar fiveing myself into the poor house buying bunches of these little apps.
Good for you Herb!!
Good to see you posting some
Now go buy you some apps :)
Me thinks, that the tenth million iPhone is sold by months end.
If you count the 717k sold but not counted as rev or earnings in the past quarter - that adds up to ~ 6.124 million as of June 30.
Add a million for the first 3 days of 3G sales.
So, that puts Apple about 2.9 million short of 10 million as of about July 14.
You could be right. I'm guessing that production is somewhere around 400k a week and ramping up to somewhere around a million units a week by the end of this quarter - for the holiday quarter, you know - but these are just guesses.
Apple has done a pretty good job of having product available for the holiday season.
App Store revenue possibilities
http://www.macrumors.com/2008/08/01/iphone-app-store-numbers-reveal-large-revenue-opportunities/
And from Australia's Sydney Morning Herald
The iPhone 3G goes on sale at Virgin stores around Australia this morning, offering the country's most generous iPhone data allowance at 5GB.
Virgin is selling Apple's 8GB iPhone 3G for $0 upfront on a $70 monthly plan, which includes $520 worth of calls and 1GB of data. For an extra $30 per month, customers can receive an extra 4GB of data and opt for the 16GB iPhone 3G for $0 up front. All Virgin iPhone plans are for 24 months and it has no initial plans to sell the iPhone 3G outright.
"What we hear from our customers is that they really want the iPhone not just because it's a cool device but they want to do stuff with it, and I don't think that's been catered for in the market so far," said Virgin Mobile Australia chief executive Peter Bithos.
"We heard pretty loud and clear from customers that they want data. One gigabyte per month is fair but it's not generous. We want customers who scoff at one gigabyte to have the option to get more."
Virgin's iPhone data plans bring its handset-based data pricing in line with its mobile broadband data pricing, whereas other Australian mobile carriers charge a significant premium for data used on a mobile phone, as opposed to data used on a computer via a wireless data card.
"It's odd that wireless broadband pricing seems to be different to mobile data pricing and so we're shooting to rectify that," Bithos said.
"I think as customers become more savvy they will start to realise that data over a network is just data over a network, regardless of the device used."
A subsidiary of Optus, Virgin Mobile Australia offers exactly the same Australian mobile coverage as Optus - meaning Virgin iPhone 3G customers outside metro and major regional areas will fall back to slow GPRS data speeds.
Another note that includes a company statement about international iPhone sales. I had rather hoped for more statements on international sales. Maybe I am looking in the wrong places :).
* Richard Wray
* The Guardian,
* Friday August 1 2008
* Article history
The exclusive deal that O2 has to supply the iPhone in Britain is understood to be under threat, with other mobile phone operators seeking to take advantage of a renegotiation period in the company's contract with Apple.
O2, owned by Spain's Telefónica, said yesterday that the new 3G version of the phone - which went on sale last month and immediately sold out - had become its fastest-selling handset ever.
But its status as the only network that carries the phone could come under threat next year.
O2 started stocking the original version of the iPhone last November and its deal with Apple is believed to run until 2012. There is understood to be a window for renegotiation after two years and other operators are hopeful that Apple will have partnered with more than just one network by Christmas 2009.
Live Mesh
They lost me at Windows Live ID....
I use Windows at work. It works all right. I abhor using it at home. It is an ideological stance, and like many of those may not make much sense :). As soon as I buy iWork, I'll see about weaning myself off of Excel at home.
I have long advocated for a mid level non-AIO desktop.
Don't reckon I'm going to get it. I would love a daughter-of-Cube though. I had planned to buy one when the price came down :).
There is a lot of angst out there
Lots of fretting and worrying.
I like Apple's fundamentals, particularly the growth of cash.
Oh, particularly the growing popularity of its computers.
Oh, particularly the prospects of its nascent mobile platform.
Oh, particularly how that will drive the growth of MobileMe
Oh, particularly its rumored and legendary product pipeline
Oh, we could go on for awhile with this list.
Feel free to add your own "oh's" to it.
Buy when it looks inexpensive, maintain some cash for a fire sale and enjoy the big picture which becomes more sharply focused with each passing quarter and year,.
Japan iPhone debut article
http://www.japancorp.net/Article.asp?Art_ID=19119
I think this article is well worth your time: Mobile Execs Spar Over iPhone
http://mobilitytoday.com/news/008742/iphone_executives_spar
Round-up of the iPhone competition
Here is what the CEO of Rogers Wireless had to say in a conference call (reported by Appleinsider)- whole article is worth reading.
Mohammed noted that demand for his firm's usual array of handsets "slammed on the brakes" on June 9th, the same day Rogers announced plans to begin selling the Apple phone the following month.
Subscriber interest in the iPhone eventually led Rogers and Nokia to half the price of Nokia's similarly-equipped 8GB N95 handset to match the 8GB iPhone's $200 price tag in a bid to re-stimulate demand.