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Apple and MSFT and Linux
MSFT is already losing server business to Linux.
I don't believe Linux is going to reach the point where it takes a lot of consumer desktop (or much business desktop) share from Apple or MSFT.
Apple does well due to the hardware-software integration it is able to achieve by controlling both. That is the party line, anyway. What would you offer to counter that party line?
Ron
Ticked off Fi,
I will wait till they put one in an iMac before I decide whether to be ticked off or not. In the meantime, I'm going to work an iSight camera--or whatever the doohickey is called and chat with iBuddies live and in color (and maybe off-color also).
Ron, Apple-Tax Payer for Life, but don't need no steenken tower
tfx, I don't disagree with your assessment
I was curious if the poster of the purchase of AAPL had a time line in mind for his goal of 22,50.
If end of the month, end of quarter, end of good sense buying keeps Apple where it is or elevates it a bit, I will sell my small stake and wait for a better bargain on the shares. If not, I will continue to hold them--they are in an IRA--and have confidence that AAPL will be up by January--absent any kind of chicanery or other misfortune :)
Any particular time frame in mind for reaching your price target?
Annie
Usually means dusting off the shelves :).
This sounds like it could be fun. From http://www.forbes.com/2003/06/21/cx_ss_0621peopletowatch.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
However, rumors about new developments to Apple's iChat instant messaging software--like a videoconferencing feature and an Apple-branded Web camera to support it--may bear fruit.
Being careful,
*chuckle* When I came home from work on Friday and told Kathy I had taken our original investments out of one stock, keeping the ~30% appreciation in shares, she said she was glad. Then she said "You were starting to get that glazed look in your eyes when talking about the market--you know, the one you get when you are about to lose a bunch of money :).
This afternoon I put in the order to transfer the big cap growth, big cap value, and international stock money in my 457 plan into the money market option. Don't plan to lose that 15% gain over the next few months. In fact, I have thought about doing the 'in equities from November to May' thing with that account.
Sure would like Amazon to pull back significantly this summer. One of these years I'd like to do a October to announcement of holiday sales paly on it.
Ron
Thanks Tom
My current portfolio is 15% cash, 15% stocks and 70% fixed income. Except for AAPL most of my stocks are old economy types with good dividends.
We did talk about it, and I moved about 30% of my portfolio to cash on Friday morning. I am looking to move more there before the end of the month. I do think it is possible that there will be opportunities in precious metal miners, and will watch for the Gold Bugs Index to go to 159-160 and the XAU to 83-84 before adding there.
I am also considering moving my 457 plan to a low-yielding money market option around the first-have about 16% gains in it since Feb and capital preservation is important to me at this time.
Ron
A bit more on institutional ownership of AAPL
Total Number of Holders 334
% of Shares Outstanding
61.58%
Total Shares Held
225,091,848
Total Value of Holdings
$4,321,763,482
Net Activity
7,642,189
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/Holdings.asp?symbol=AAPL&selected=AAPL&page=holdingssummary
and you can get a summary of insitutional activity (number of increased positions, decreased positions, no change, new positions etc) You can also look at the list of institutional owners and see what each has done over the previous quarters. These data are for the quarter ending March 31. I do not know how soon after the end of each quarter the new numbers get put up, nor do I know of a site that does the reporting more in "real time"
Ron
lngostino
That is the thing about expectations--they are often unfulfilled :). I did mention other funds and index vehicles, I deserve a point to two for that :).
the amount of time I spent on it is proportional to my aapl holdings, I suspect...holdings that may well go down to zero tomorrow.
You are right on target about the lack of research on RB and many other stock boards. While many boards have some posters that consistently put out higher quality information, it can be like trying to find a few good vegetables in a week patch.
I think this board will have a higher mix of higher quality posts, be they research, largely unsupported by 'hard data' thoughts, or just nice friendly posts.
Ron
Fund and the next couple of weeks
Funds have had a good run generally over the past couple of months. I have been reading much about how a theme may emerge after the end of the quarter, namely sell like hell and preserve gains.
Any thoughts on whether this will be a dominant theme? Is this a bear-market rally that will trap the late-comers? I think there is a pretty good chance that it is, thus my larger than usual cash position. As usual, I don't know much about when the drop might happen, or how it might proceed, but I don't see the rally going a whole lot further. Course, I could be wrong, but these days I would much rather be wrong on the side of caution.
Ron
Nadaq 100, not 110. eom.
Nas 110 and apple
Apple is 1.02% of the Nas 100
Data as of Jun. 19, 03 Mkt Close. http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_activity.stm
on daily average QQQ shares traded of 76,505,293 (from yahoo) that would represent 780,354 shares of AAPL. (QQQ average daily volume*.0102) This represents 11.86% of Apple daily average volume of 6,577,804 shares, also from yahoo.
There are, of course, other index funds that buy and sell Apple in proportion, I would assume, to the inflow and outflow of cash into those funds.
Is this close to what you had in mind.
By the way, langostino, you write a lot like a South Floridian I have read and have met--but with a different nom de plume .
Also, while I was delighted to do this, know that I will not accept every assignment so easily *grin*
Interesting post about the Nas 100 and Apple.
I wonder if anyone can provide a more precise measure of the shares traded as a result of membership in the Nasdaq 100 than "some substantial percentage"? It would be interesting to know.
Ron
In addition,
I think the upgrade cycle will also generate some sales of XServes.
Ron
Back then, the company went from $5.9 Billion in revenues to $8.0. With the revenue line back down in the $6 Billion area, you would need to see some fairly staggering growth in unit sales to create that kind of revenue growth.
What kind of growth in Pro Macs will we see from the combination of Quark for X, new Pro models that should scream past what is not available in terms of speed and the fact that many Pro print customers will have reasons to upgrade their Mac systems now?
Here are the unit sales numbers from (in thousands): they are from
December 19, 2002
APPLE COMPUTER INC (AAPL)
Annual Report (SEC form 10-K)
Power Macintosh unit sales
2002--> 766
2001--> 937
2000--> 1,436
And the dollars associated with those numbers (in millions
2002--> $ 1,380
2001 --> $ 1,664
2000 --> $ 2,747
I'd be interested in hearing th thoughts of those assembled here. I think there is going to be a movement back toward the numbers we saw in 2000. I am not sure how close Apple will get, but I think a 20-40% increase in Power Mac unit sale is not an off the wall estimate. Add the iPod numbers, the music store revenue, software sales (Panther won't be a free upgrade, darn it all), and I can see 8 billion in revenues in 2005.
Thanks Louis
When, in your opinion, TIVO finds a buying point, drop a little note, eh?
Ron
Any of you'se hold or follow TIVO?
I know it has been mentioned as being a good match for Apple
Here is what one fund manage says:
Portfolio manager Suresh Bhirud did just that (fund doubled since the end of 2002) . In addition, his Apex Mid-Cap Growth Fund (BMCGX: news, chart, profile) has been the best performing growth fund since the end of 2002, doubling up his closest competitor.
TiVo for the future
Another favorite of Bhirud is TiVo (TIVO: news, chart, profile), the creator of a television services for digital video recorders.
"I believe people will be more likely to watch TV programming when they want to rather than adjust to when they are broadcast," Bhirud said.
He thinks the company is at the very early stages of its growth, much earlier than even Netflix, but meets his criteria by owning patents on some aspects of recording. The stock slipped 35 cents to close at $9.75 on Thursday, and is up around 94 percent, year-to-date.
Was up today.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDEBE7835%2D4BA6%2D4071%2D865C%2D252C8D6735E4%7D&am...
This morning I was
at 2.4% cash in my self directed IRA. Right now I am at 33% cash, having sold one additional stock. When I write about stocks, it is this account I am writing about. I have other investments in the public sector equivalent of a 401k, a 457 plan. I rarely write about moves in that account and I rarely make any. I cannot buy or sell individual stocks in the 457 plan, but have a basket of options, each option (large value, large growth, int'l, small cap etc..) is a blend of 2-4 funds.
Anway, I generally am pretty fully invested, but will wait and see what happens next week before making any more moves. Am pleased with the past 2 months, but don't wanna lose the significant gains made during that time.
Ron
Are we going to discuss other stocks here?
I know that tfx posted something about bonds and chasky wrote of AKAM. I wonder how far-ranging our discussion will be, in part because I don't want to trash up this board with talk that is too wide ranging.
Having said that :), I took out my original investment in Wheaton River Minerals [WHT, selling ~70% of the shares I held, in order to increase my cash position so that I would be in a position to do something more with AAPL if a good opportunity arises.
If someone thinks they have a handle on what the US dollar will do over the next 6 months to a year, I'd like to hear it. Most of what I find on the topic is written by gold nuts....errrrr bugs and their judgement seems to be, IMO, a bit clouded by thoughts of a Grand Conspiracy :).
Ron
1998 all over again all over again
Have done some thinking about Pinza's thoughts that there will be selling pressure. He may be correct, but.....in this scenario
1) New Pro Towers
2) Quark for OS X
3) Improving economy in the 2nd half predicted for the 3rd year running. The're goinng to be right one of these years :).
4) Other possible but less sure announcements
Along with the anticipation of improved forward guidance during 2nd quarter conference call.
I am thinking this: put a stop loss order @ about 5% less than I paid for the shares (18.82) for downside protection. Step 2: Sit tight and hope for the best.
If, however, Apple runs to between 20 and 21, it will be tempting to take profits thus avoiding any downside risk and letting go of any further upside.
It is 2003, not 1998. Thoughts anyone?
PinzaTodd 1998 all over
So we know what you think. What do you plan to do about your thoughts? Do you plan to sell some tomorrow or Monday? Do you think you will hold? will you use a stop loss order?
How and when will you make a decision.
thanks
Ron
Matt, that was I, me and myself.
No aliases or junk--in fact I paid for one month of a premium membership to see what it offered via paypal yesterday. I assume that it and the three post limit will go away for me soon. Probably will never post 18 in a day--can't imagine that--but 3 feels a bit constricting to someone who occasionally responds to the posts of others.
thanks
Ron
Annie said
<i< know it doesn't mean much but AAPL up .27 after hours is unusual. I'll take it.
The current bid, at 5:51 Pacific Time, is 19.25 and 5,700 shares have been traded. In AAPLTALK yesterday there was a warning to watch out for expiry on Friday, that maxpain was 15 or 17.50. Now I have never been a keen observer of maxpain casue I have not traded a bunch, but I wonder if Apple closes up today how much it can be taken down tomorrow.
I, of course, expect miracle announcements next week :). It has been a fun few months, what between making bucks on the Music Store Million Announcement (MSMA), 401k's making good money and a couple of other stocks doing real well. Another miracle announcement or three and I'll be standing in tall cotton :).
As VicAapl used to say "I love this game"...or something like that.
You guys have a great day.
Also I have a novel idea :)
A collaborative writing task the working title of which could be:
Escape From RB :).
Oh, one more thing. I am currently limited to 3 posts a day. That may be applauded by the rest of you :), but could an admin type change that to unlimited blabberings?
thanks
Ron
OK, I have some apples again. Short-term trade, long term hold?
I dunno :).
Ron
Apple is active this morning, having traded 79,000 shares at 8:21 Eastern time.
Could be an interesting week. I still don't have any in my portfolio, having sold after the Music store first million announcement run-up. Have been doing well with precious metal mining stocks, but I must be crazy:). I think the standard recommendations are that maybe 5-10% of one's portfolio should be in that sector. While our 401k and 457 plans are in a diversified group of mutual funds, my self-directed IRA is 90% precious metals mining stocks now--and it has been going well--so well that I don't have any desire to sell any of it right now.
I think Apple may be in position to have a good year or two. I hope so.
Ron
Annie wrote: Maybe we should open the bar and serve snacks.
I'll take a magarita and some tacos de camaron just like they make them at La Floresta in Playa del Carmen.
Saw WmZ in aapltalk yesterday.
Ron
Hi folks,
thanks for the invite. It is good to be here and to be included with such an august group :).
Ron