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Although I'm disappointed they couldn't raise more money ( I would have preferred 3 million up front), I was encouraged they were able to avoid further dilution for now. So much so that, as per my original plan, I'm back in CORX with a small purchase of 100k shares. Will consider buying more this summer if I see volume and S.P. improve. On the other hand, I've got a tight leash on this purchase.
I see Servier as being the immediate winner in this transaction, as they must have seen something in clinic they liked, and paid peanuts for the tech. Although, if CORX can provide Servier with a winner, it will bode well for them in the long run, and perhaps raise the value of their other compounds. Their next order of business should be to bundle and sell R.D./S.A. to raise more funds to finally put ADHD in clinic. As I've said before, I don't think a buyout that would immediately help shareholders is in the works.
I think you've outlined all options based on our current limited knowledge of the situation.
#3 is most likely, though it may or may not be with Servier. I guess it comes down to how much
positive data Servier has on the high impacts. Since they are new compounds, there may not be enough data to make them attractive enough.
I suppose it also comes down to what management is willing to part with short of loosing control of the company's future. My guess is that they are currently deferring compensation, and perhaps other expenses to stretch things out as long as possible. Given all the work they've put into this, and having been in similar circumstances in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see them last until the fall with no financing.
Utilizing another area of expertise, I've noticed that a man down to his last $15 at $5 blackjack table is often the hardest one for the house to crack.
In a recent post I said I thought a financing could be completed by July, but my expectation was that the S.P. would tank after, not before the financing. I didn't anticipate the Samyang selling, and others piling on in anticipation of the worst.
Although I may be missing a good entry point, I think I'll stick to my original plan and wait until the financing is complete. As Neuro has pointed out, no one knows what, if anything is going on at CORX right now. Too much risk for me. I'm comfy in my bear etf's for the month of June at least.
Agreed.
If I were going to try to convince someone to buy a biotech stock I would not try to tout it by a comparison to CORX.OB. CORX.OB is a stock in hospice care receiving only palliative treatment.
Why not compare the stock in question to real winners like Illumina, Vertex, and scores of others with track records of success year after year. Stocks with CEO's that don't go around blaming market conditions and the FDA for all their misfortunes.
You forgot about the MJ Fox mice. How have those parkinson-addled rodents faired sipping ampakine cocktails for the past several weeks? Wonder how long it will take to do analysis on their subjective collective gestalt?
All summer I guess if Germans are involved.
I've said it before,
CORX.OB still not bite-sized enough for a buyout.
I agree with neuro that management will take pay cuts, and/or defer pay and benefits. They may have already done so, but for various reasons chose not to disclose it in the form of a press release or to shareholders on this board clamoring for lawsuits.
If anyone on this board has run a company that was in trouble, or clung desperately to a losing stock, then you're all to familiar with that inner Knute Rockne urging you onward. I know it's happened to me more than once. Many years and many dollars down the drain I've learned my lesson. Varney is a relatively young man, struggling through his first try at the helm. He'll do anything to stay there, including going down with the ship. Damn the crew, cargo, and passengers stuck in the hold.
"I think their only alternative is a 2-3 million dollar dilution,"
The second half of the sentence read:
"or a ticket on the oblivion express."
All aboard?
I think I'll stay comfortably on the sidelines with my bear etfs for now.
re: "actual selling." It took me the better part of six weeks to get off a paltry $70K worth of CORX several months ago when I saw SA data wasn't well received. Can only guess how long it will take to liquidate a larger position at these volume levels.
For those of you who believe CORX can orchestrate a quick buyout. I think even the most jaundiced among you would be shocked by how low the offers available to management are at this juncture. Ever needed rent money really bad, and the only place you could go was Manny's Pawn?
Because of the small offers, and the amount of time it would take to broker the transaction, I think there only alternative is a 2-3 million dollar dilution, or a ticket on the oblivion express.
Patience all. The world didn't end as scheduled nor will CORX.OB. I fully expect the finance terms to be announced by July at the latest, giving our team another several quarters of elbow room. They will need every bit of it to work out a licensing deal, or sale of the company. In due time, I expect it to be the latter.
In the mean time there will be more pain, humiliation, and barking from those still long this name.
Money to be made near the end, tho that time is not yet nigh.
Dr. Freely's dead. No. NoNo. NoNoNo. He's on the outside, looking in....
Good distillation of the facts.
I'm waiting for the terms of the next financing to be announced before considering a re-entry into CORX. If a buyout is an option it will most likely take 3-6 months to work out the details, since that will correspond with money left for salaries and bonuses. A buy out in the .25-.50 cent range would seem do-able, but how low will the S.P. sink before that is accomplished? Good question. Positive news doesn't seem to affect it, nor do increases in shares traded.
If a buy out isn't an option, then the only hope is that SA/RD can be re-packaged and sold at a high enough price to fund ADHD, since as you point out "Nobody with any serious money will give Stoll or Varney money to spend." That isn't likely to change until they have success in a phase II trail.
Due to the uncertainty both paths entail, I'm on the sidelines until the at least a month or two passes after the financing terms are announced.
I'm not expecting an annual S.H. meeting. It's an expense they don't need.
I don't think CORX will get terms this time around similar to the Samyang deal. It will, however, be framed by management as "buying time" for a resale of RD/SA, results from the MJ Fox mice, et cetera. If they fail to repackage those items into an deal resurrecting ADHD, that will be the time to consider re-entering CORX. Despite its downward spiral, it is my opinion that CORX will need to fall 30 to 40 percent from its current level before it will reach a point of where additional financings simply will not be available on any terms and the management and board will fold up their tents. Until it reaches that level your point is well taken, why allocate funds at this entry point only to watch them be ground away by months of unproductive negotiations.
Of course I could be completely wrong. Management could ink a monster licensing deal in the next thirty to ninety days for RD/SA, with more than enough funds to run a conclusive, speedy, and pressworthy ADHD trail that would leave me at the station long after the bullet train of prosperity has departed the station.
I'm more confident now that I made the right decision to bail on CORX several months ago at a penny per share loss following the lack of market response to SA data's belated release. I do think the CORX pipeline will be acquired in time, but at a much lower S.P. I'm waiting to see what the terms of the next financing will be before considering another try at this gentleman. My guess is that it will be enough money to allow them to continue to shop S.A. and R.D. for another six to ten months. If, at that juncture they are unable to find a home for those indications, I'll consider re-entering CORX, since at that point all avenues of escape will have been exhausted, and we'll be looking at a S.P. well below .10 share. As I've said before, I'm a trader who looks to maximize profits and minimize losses. It looks like for right now, we're going to grind down further before we get an opportunity for some profit. Therefore, the sidelines seem a comfortable place to reside. Good luck to all.
Visited holeinonestocks web site. Laughed so hard when I saw their prediction of CORX doubling by 3/31/11 I almost choked on my martini olive. CORX will be a hole in one after its seventy millionth mulligan is bought and paid for with shareholder dilution.
Waiting and watching for terms of next financing before considering repurchasing stock.
I'm encouraged that we have something to bundle to raise money for ADHD, but my guess is that we'll need more elbow room to negotiate the deal. Now that we've got back RD, a sale of the co. will not be considered.
Glad to be a bystander again.
I remember it well because after two too many Bombay Saphire Martinis I misquoted you horribly on that very subject. It must have struck a nerve with other posters, since I attempted in a somewhat sodden state to correct myself and was flamed repeatedly. It seems everything but the .50 per share issue was forgotten as it appears in numerous posts through out that time frame, and has since been ensconced as a gold standard. Thanks for cutting through the gin haze to the pithy truth.
I've been encouraged by the RD buyback agreement. Bundled together with SA and Sickle Cell, they could well have the funds to finally attack ADHD. It will be tough to raise 2-3 million at this share price to buy them enough time to negotiate without significant dilution. Despite the cost to shareholders, I'm confident management will opt. for whatever financing deal they can obtain, since I don't believe they would sell the company even if they could obtain the much mentioned price of .50 share (how that figure has gained legitimacy through repetition is also an interesting subject for speculation.)
I don't think the FDA has it in for CORX. They are a death star for the hopes and dreams of pharma shareholders everywhere. Just ask former Amylin bull Jim Cramer. At any rate CORX is not at the point of even having to worry about the FDA. Just obtaining enough funding to negotiate the sale of assets will be challenge enough.
Although its nice to see the SP not go down on news of RD repatriation, I remain on the sidelines until the financing details are announced.
If we can't agree on specifics, lets not bash each other. The posters on this board often invest serious time and research into formulating their opinions and deserve respect for contributing their expertise. I know that often times I take exception to the opinions expressed, but never towards those expressing them without leavening it with some humor. This board is, after all, for entertainment purposes mostly.
If they went "virtual" as gfp has suggested they might rather than accept a sub par buyout, who would change the cedar shavings in the cages of Micheal J. Fox's mice, they have Parkinsons for christ sake and are unable to care for themselves.
Anyone on the board aware of how these conference presentations, and shareholder meetings have affected share price of the company over the past few years. I mean have their been any inflections in share price upwards, or downwards before or after Dr. Varney spoke. Seems I remember a prediction of a "deal in thirty to fourty-five days," affecting share price somewhat upwards a couple of falls ago.
The last presentation I recall vividly was the one in which he was asked how many individuals had completed SA. There was some unclear response on his part, then I believe Roger stood up and provided the correct number. The reason that I remember is that shortly afterwards I purchased some CORX at what I believed had to be the nadir. Turns out I was wrong.
"Anyway, if buyout offers are only in the $10-15 mil range, Cortex might be better off just staying independent and diluting/partnering as necessary for one last shot at the brass ring, or else partnering everything low impact and going after high impacts-only, or even becoming a 'virtual' company awaiting future royalties from the partners".
Cortex as a company and Cortex management might well be better off pursuing this option, but would shareholders ultimately be served by this "last shot at the brass ring" approach.
While CORX might survive going "virtual" the difference in pay between a biotech CEO, and what would amount to an overglorified nightwatchman might not appeal to current management.
Finally, as the share price continues to absorb the brunt of additional dilutions, CORX becomes more vulnerable to the type of hyenas who might want to see just how poisonous the management's poison pill really is, after they've feasted on sub 10 cent shares for month after month.
BTW thanks to both em and neuro for a spirited debate on the wisdom of the SA study.
Actually I had my resume in the hands of SPECTRE's "Revenge" Department H.R. Chief, but was informed by email that I was "just a stupid policeman."
I'm leaning more towards private equity, as there seems to be little interest in bringing new drugs to market in today's neuropharma market.
Strike that.
I should say little interest in spending precious cash reserves in bringing new drugs to market. All agree that for many epidemic proportion afflictions there is little or no viable treatment: ADHD, Parkinsons, Alzheimers, etc. Yet pharma expenditures on investigational drugs, and partnering remain low compared to the potential market, and low in comparison to three to five years ago.
There is an old adage that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I think that is poor old CORX's conundrum.
A well heeled private equity group with connections to pharma (perhaps a former CFO, or CEO), or maybe a wealth fund with a shopping list of discounted technology, might be the more likely purchaser, but at a much lower price than current market cap. As I've said before, I don't believe CORX is quite bite sized yet. Another stock offering and 12 to 16 more months of capitol burn will most likely make it so.
"The mistake investors made was putting their eggs in one basket, and that's not Varney/Stoll's fault, it's our own bad judgement."
To that I would add:
1. Lack of trading stop-losses
2. Stop losses in place regarding material events: FDA whammys, de-listing, missed deadlines, lack of market reaction to publication of trial results.
3. Macho posturing in the face of SP collapse.
Of these the last is the most puzzling, since going down with the ship only allows management more time to continue their current course. All the message board criticism in the world won't affect them one iota.
"If you want safe, u should NOT touch this POS in the first place."
I'm including this in my formula that determines the metrics of my repurchase of CORX.
Having been in and out of CORX over the past five years, at a slight net profit, I've never regretted selling a single share of CORX.
It just hasn't rewarded the buy and hold investor.
Please excuse my laziness, and illiteracy.
I think that what he said was that he personally would not support a sale of the co. for less than 50 million, and would lend his admittedly credant bulk to vouchsafe a much higher valuation.
Time will tell if and when CORX is sold, what its final price will be. I lost about a penny a share on $70k worth of stock plus a sizable commission, many on this board would gladly change places with me in the loss department. Perhaps my expectations were too high this time around, but I prefer high expectations and stop losses to a slow grinding down of investment capitol, particularly when I feel it can be more useful elsewhere. I bear the longs, and management no ill will, and hope to be back in the stock if the purchase price meets my metrics.
Sorry for the misquote. My mistake. $50 million or less. Your posts, and corrections are always welcome.
Although some have labelled me a basher, or worse for posting my sale of CORX stock after the fact, and advising others do likewise due to an impending financing I feel will mean further pain for shareholders, I am in complete agreement that there will be no sale of CORX in the immediate future.
As per my previous posts, I feel CORX is not yet bite-sized enough to be bought out at a premium this market is willing to pay. At half the current share price and no money left for salaries, rent, and no further dilution possible CORX may well be sold, not before.
I will consider repurchasing my shares at that level, and not before.
Although I consider management competent, and hardworking, I don't see anything in their resumes that has prepared them for the choices they now face.
FWIW, I also agree with Neuro that when the sale does occur, the sale price will be less than 30 million, much less.
Think your instincts are correct. Companies worth more dead than alive eventually get put out of their misery. CORX still isn't "bite sized" enough. IMHO stock will need to be about half of current value to make it so. Unfortunately for shareholders, it won't come until after at least one more dilution, and another 12-16 months of capitol burn for rent, salaries, etc.
Unless they can reduce their outflows, in which case it might take longer.
That .14 bid .17 ask close just wasn't to be. In last ten minutes someone just had to have that extra few hundred dollars drinking money and sold at .13. How sad.
I didn't mean to imply that AH Robbins and Corx or in any way similar in their business strategies. I based the comparison on personal experience. I purchased stock in AH Robbins during the hurly burly of controversy that emerged after internal documents were leaked and aired on Sixty Minutes that indicated the company was aware of IUD complications but instead continued to use previous studies touting their safety both here and abroad. I never judged for myself, or cared for that matter, whether the allegations had any validity. After bankruptcy I was rewarded with a four bagger for my efforts.
My point is that in my opinion our IP will be dispersed, albeit at a much lower share price than current levels, and sans current management. Hence my sale of the stock.
Whether others do likewise only time will tell. I suppose if they do it will not be due to any influence exerted on them by what they read on this board. A board that exists, in my view at least, solely for entertainment value.
Ombow. I would like to clarify a misunderstanding you might have regarding my motivations for selling Corx, and the recommendation that others consider doing likewise.
It is my belief that CORX is in a financial death spiral. Whether we sell our shares or not will not change that fact.
I do, however, believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. For this to occur current management needs to go. I believe the only way this will occur is when there is no money left for salaries, or rent.
When this happens they will go. Not before. For this to happen the share price needs to go much further down as it will prevent current management from obtaining additional funds.
It is also my opinion that, as you've said in a previous post, few posters on this board pay much attention to what I have to say. So when the share price craters further, as I believe it will, no credit will be due me.
To answer your final question as to why I sold my shares when I did. As stated in numerous previous posts, I held my shares until the release of SA data. After reviewing the data, and and the lack of positive market response, I decided to sell. I didn't realize that by posting on IHUB, there was the requirement that I notify posters of my stock transactions in advance. If you feel it important, in the future I'll send you an email to let you know my trades in advance.
As a final note, I appreciate your postings of your communications with Mark, although I find them more revealing in their tone, than in their content. I also appreciate your unabashed faith in God, and his Son.
That's because there will be no conference call.
I have a feeling that next week you'll see the worm turn,
as more investor's reach for the dull pocket knife.
Sorry to be so long in responding to your query. I suppose the first example of a dead pharma company rising from the grave might be A.H. Robbins, whose lawsuits resulting from the deaths attributed to the Dalkon Shield IUD prompted it to file for bankruptcy in 1985. Afterwards the stock quadrupled as it was sold out to American Home Products (now Wyeth).
My point is that although CORX stock has been hammered, I don't think its been hammered quite enough for my liking.
As to the haircut. Do the complaints about the price of a haircut for a man who's already been decapitated seem ridiculous only to the barber?
Don't bother explaining my post.
The fact that Neuro passed Varney in the hallway has erased all negative impressions
left by the gradual destruction of the SP under current management.
Is that fleeting glimpse of Mark, and the hope it implies any more ridiculous than
my suggestion?
As to my "modest proposal." It was unpalatable to those
who feel the current course is safer than the unknown
a complete implosion of SP might represent.
Time will tell if they are right.
As to my intentions. They are to advance science, expose lunacy,
and minimize losses and maximize profits in all stock transactions.
I haven't posted for several weeks because after SA release I decided to unwind the shares I purchased mid-summer 2010 @.16. It took almost three weeks to unload 70K worth. Average price .15.
Good luck to all longs.
I'm of the opinion that the best place for this promising platform is anywhere but in the hands of current management. For those of you hopeful about the future of this technology, I urge you to sell your remaining shares. For those of you who just want the technology out of the hands of current management, I suggest you do likewise.
Posting on this board will not change anything with regards to company direction, nor will emailing, or calling management. They have their own agenda that has run counter to enhancement of shareholder value for some time now. Compare the compensation of management as a percentage of market cap over time. Now compare that percentage to any successful biotech.
Selling your shares will accomplish the goal of moving this technology forward the fastest possible way. By depressing the SP, it will limit current management's access to additional capitol through further secondary stock offerings, and will shorten their tenure at helm. Whether it be through a forced sale of assets, or a buyout of shares dosen't matter at this point.
This stock is thinly traded, so this won't take very long to accomplish. Please consider doing this sooner rather than after the dilution is announced. Do not wait for a press release regarding SA, or company direction. It will not materialize, or if it does it will not substantially impact SP.
Stuck in a dark cave with no hope of escape? Sometime the only way out is a dull pocket knife.
I think the best indication of how well Varney, and the Board of Directors have performed is yet to be determined.
Although their past short falls (missed deadlines, failed trails, dilutions, selling off what most considered several years ago as a blockbuster for a fraction of development cost) are numerous, the real tell will be their future career trajectory.
Do they continue with their past MO, or land a real partnership that will allow them to advance an Indication to Phase III and beyond? If their future isn't with CORX do they move on to greener pastures (as Tran did successfully), or just fade away to increasingly lower levels of responsibility in their future employment.
As for what you regard as neuro's management grandstanding, once upon a time I too wrote a subscription based newsletter in an altogether different field. I'll have to admit that I was a little hesitant to kick the shins connected to the legs, connected to the same a$%#es I might find it beneficial to kiss the following week. Anyway, if you read his actual publication, I don't think you'll find his most recent reviews of CORX are all that enthusiastic.
I'm standing by my most recent foray into CORX this past summer until SA is finally released, since that was my initial plan.
Although I still believe SA results will be released as a spoonful of sugar to help the medicine of a dilution go down a little smoother, I too am encouraged that volume appears to be increasing without much further damage to the share price.
Varney's not in the "take the money and run..." mode
You're right, he's in the collect the salary and fester in total silence mode.
When will he get out of this mode,
whenever he damn well pleases.
That's exactly what his emails say.
I used my spy ring decoder
and translated them into shareholderease
for the board's edification.
It warms my heart to hear of a man locking in profits on a biotech transaction. Gives me hope.
I too have been in and out of COR/CORX over the years, unfortunately never profiting, but never getting wiped out due to stops.
I got back in this summer for two reasons:
1. I believed management had already made every conceivable mistake, and had the ability and time (provided by the Samyang money) to learn from at least one or two of them.
2. I believed most of the damage to the SP had already been done, and that the 20 person trail would be completed by the fall, and I could either bank a small profit, or lick my wounds and move on.
Didn't count on the delay in SA data that must surely have been subjected to every form of data set analysis available by now.
If they do have good results from SA and the Parkinson's animal trial and the share price reaches my target level (the high twenties where it runs into the options overhang), I will sell and wait for another pull back in S.P.
Thanks for the informed response to my query., but my implication was not that management could magically subvert the rules that govern publicly traded stocks. Just that in the absence of funding methods previously available to publicly traded firms, what benefits does CORX technology have remaining publicly traded? Although there might not be one single shareholder with enough shares to manage a "hostile" takeover, might not this depressed share price be an invitation to an entity tendering an offer to the Board of Directors. And might not that be one of the ways forward management is considering, since it may end up being in their best self interest to do so?
Although CORX silence surrounding SA is frustrating to speculative shareholders such as myself who purchased shares in the summer hoping for resolution in the fall, I tend to agree with Jerrydylan that larger issues such as managements future as stewards of the technology are now playing out behind the scenes.
BTW, I did enjoy Wall Street and the Sequel, and with Michael Douglas the best in his struggle with cancer.