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FONR another gem low floater at 5X's EPS steady earner & under followed. Went from $4 to $6.60 on last earnings has pulled back & based in $5 area nicely. Should start to work higher off oversold conditions plus nice fundies..
2 Bounce plays to watch WU crazy selloff after lowering full year guidance from $1.70 to $1.60 lost 1/3rd entire market cap for Western Union ????
HZNP been in a big downtrend & stochastic off the bottom of chart oversold due for some relief & had news this a.m. plus other Nov catalysts may help... Insiders have bought millions of shares in $3.50 area
HZNP deeply oversold bounce play with News this A.M. link
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/horizon-pharma-announces-clinical-data-123000897.html
GAI Hong Kong co. long Nasdaq history very legit. GAI with almost $13 a share in Cash & No Debt plus Net Tangible Assets after Debt of over $26 a share. Reason mentioned is been trading more since $1.00 Dividend announced as used to not trade much at all & while still thin due to float under 1 million shares does move up & down quite a bit. Divi news spiked it close to $10 & I brought it to Paltalk room at $4.70 now $5.70 and still dirt cheap. Just adding a very legit co. to the conversation GLTA & make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
ADY wish I held the massive amount of shares I sold in the $5's geez ...just wasn't sure if they would produce a good quarter especially after 4th qtr & no guidance oh well still a very very nice win...
WHO was it calling for ADY back to $3 ? geez that's gotta hurt being short at $5 now $7.25
ADY quality of earnings was tremendous improvement & if this model is played out for 2012 ADY will easily be a double digit stock..
ADY 2 News releases this A.M. Sequoia paid in full & the CTSH tracking system news out.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feihe-international-completes-redemption-shares-120000706.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feihe-international-introduces-product-inquiry-120000512.html
CTC news out settlement with majority owners WHY is this news important ? EJ buyout now will happen Finally, regarding company’s talks with E-House.… This from CC in March Also last EJ offer values CTC at 68 Million Dollars or approx $13.50 Share. Goldman Sachs IPO fellas & Century 21 Brand 100% LEGIT.
We remain interested in resuming discussions with E-House on the proposed transaction, pending a resolution between Century 21 China Real Estate’s founders and GL Asia Mauritius II Cayman Islands in relation to the petition filed by GLA in the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands.
This is from last year when a preliminary deal was struck between EJ & CTC deal still on but CTC has to finalize corporate actions with founders. They believe that CTC being sold to CHEAP.
Shares in New York-listed IFM Investments shot up 102% yesterday after big Chinese primary real estate brokerage E-House said it reached a preliminary agreement to buy a 37% stake in the company.
IFM holds the execlusive franchise for the Century 21 brand in China.
E-House, whose shares also trade in New York, will pay about $25 million. Chairman Zhou Xin said in a statement that the agreement will benefit both parties. (See details here.) E-House also controls Nasdaq-listed China Real Estate Information.
The purchase is the latest sign of consolidation and retrenchment among brokerages in the country at a time the government has been trying to put the brakes on property prices.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2011/11/28/e-house-to-buy-stake-in-century-21s-china-partner-ifm-shares-soar/?partner=yahoofeed
CTC has a EJ offer for 37% stake for 25 Million dollars values CTC north of $13.00 share
Finally, regarding company’s talks with E-House.… This from CC in March
We remain interested in resuming discussions with E-House on the proposed transaction, pending a resolution between Century 21 China Real Estate’s founders and GL Asia Mauritius II Cayman Islands in relation to the petition filed by GLA in the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands.
This is from last year when a preliminary deal was struck between EJ & CTC deal still on but CTC has to finalize corporate actions with founders. They believe that CTC being sold to CHEAP.
Shares in New York-listed IFM Investments shot up 102% yesterday after big Chinese primary real estate brokerage E-House said it reached a preliminary agreement to buy a 37% stake in the company.
IFM holds the execlusive franchise for the Century 21 brand in China.
E-House, whose shares also trade in New York, will pay about $25 million. Chairman Zhou Xin said in a statement that the agreement will benefit both parties. (See details here.) E-House also controls Nasdaq-listed China Real Estate Information.
The purchase is the latest sign of consolidation and retrenchment among brokerages in the country at a time the government has been trying to put the brakes on property prices.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2011/11/28/e-house-to-buy-stake-in-century-21s-china-partner-ifm-shares-soar/?partner=yahoofeed
http://www.century21cn.com/english/
Please do more then 1 minute of POOR DD this way you don't tell EVERYONE your an IDIOT ... ADY has been confirmed by multiple analysts multiple reputable short sellers & multiple China IR persons. NO ONE has ever accused nor had any proof in the 10 Years ADY has traded that they are a fraud. BTW Independent research firms have also confirmed ADY as well as their own competitors in their 10K's listing ADY . Get aclue before making yourself look like a complete novice.
ADY hope you make out ok as ADY is a rare bird 100% legit China play in a sector expected to grow over 100% the next 3 years. Astro Baby doing very well but who knows. I only banked 80% on ADY I'm sure you'll do as well shorting ?????? GLTY & make $$$$$$$$$
CTC Goldman Sachs IPO & $7.50 share CASH now taking into effect 1 for 3 reverse split. A 2 + million share float and NO debt at 1/5th their cash position s/b a mover on volume despite losing money on biz
GPRC great volume today maybe another SGOC nice find
SGOC 2.9 mill Float as shares locked down by Insiders can run fast especially with sale PR looming
ADY another Seeking Alpha piece out & ADY legging up
http://seekingalpha.com/article/510751-feihe-is-there-good-news-for-chinese-baby-food-investors
TBOW anyone do any DD ? IPO same biz as MITK & TISA appreciate thoughts thanks....
I see why your so popular here lol... Sharing factual information is NOT pumping. Continuous posts screaming your opinion as fact is pumping ....take a look in the mirror. GLTY & make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
ADY has new Seeking Alpha piece out link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/509241-astrobaby-s-890-growth-sets-feihe-free?source=yahoo
ADY lol but this S/A may help link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/509241-astrobaby-s-890-growth-sets-feihe-free?source=yahoo
ADY also not sure if you guys saw this Joe N submitting this article....
preview of my Seeking Alpha article that will be published later today or tomorrow .....
AstroBaby's 890% Growth Sets Feihe Free
Less than four years ago, Feihe International's stock (ADY) was trading above $40.00 and as this once again booming Chinese company celebrates its 50th anniversary, it finds itself trading under $4.00, but rapidly rising off the $2.22 52-week low set back in January.
About this time last year, institutional and retail shareholders in most Chinese stocks decided to throw in the towel and run for cover as "hit-piece" authors and short-sellers were popping up daily in attempting to further drive nerve-riddled investors to sell their Chinese stocks. It was like throwing darts in cashing in on the downside of most Chinese names, no different than those on the long side of the trade throwing darts in 2009. Both sides experienced a "no lose" trade.
Feihe and many other legitimate Chinese companies became a casualty as a result of many other Chinese companies that turned out to be operating many aspects of their business in a fraudulent manner. Carson Block and his firm Muddy Waters along with Alfred Little and Maj Soueidan's GeoInvesting, all quickly rose to fame as notorious short-sellers that sniffed out fraud, which resulted in many halts and subsequent delistings. Several other copy-cats threw up websites in also attempting to cash in on the fear and while they didn't arrive to the party until after midnight, hefty profits were still able to be stuffed into their pockets. If one of these short-sellers even mentioned a company's stock symbol, it was a mad rush for the exits. That's how shaken shareholders reacted and still do today to some degree.
What most onlookers didn't realize or ever catch due to their state of shock is that Alfred Little actually came out on August 19th of last year and disclosed he was actually "long" Feihe http://seekingalpha.com/article/288467-feihe-international-rapidly-improving-balance-sheet-growing-market-share-and-strong-earnings and the stock closed at $6.46 that day, 69% higher than yesterday's $3.82 closing price. Lesson to be learned here regardless of the short term movement is when one of the above named short-sellers with extensive on-the-ground due diligence teams in China tells the market they're going "long" a particular stock in China that's been beaten to a bloody pulp, you'd better pay attention, as enormous future gains are most certainly possible if not probable.
Did Alfred jump in too early ?
Well at the time of Alfred's disclosure last August, the bear camp still believed that Sequoia Capital would be looking to redeem their preferred shares totaling $65 million dollars and most everyone thought there was no way Feihe would be able to repay or roll over this debt, as most doubters thought Feihe would do as most other Chinese companies would do and convert the preferred shares into common shares at $2.00 to $3.00, essentially adding over 100% dilution to existing shareholders. If they tried to pay off the debt from operations it would cause a death spiral to their business resulting in far less money for sales and distribution which would result in far lower sales. Alfred Little was the only one who thought something different would happen. He opined that Feihe would sell assets and not only pay off Sequoia, but would still retain all seven of their production facilities, all by the way GMP compliant and updated over the last few years.
Let's take a look at the story now and see how it played out .....
Well as the saying goes, time will tell and Alfred Little appears to be correct. Feihe not only sold their dairy farms for $131 million dollars, they have repaid Sequoia with the final payment only days away. As of the end of March, Feihe is still owed $77 million dollars from the dairy sale and its total debt consisting of short & long term bank notes should be around $60 million dollars, a far cry from the close to $150 million in debt early last year. In speaking with management, they have clearly stated that capital expenditures will be very low and that most if not all debt should be retired by Q1 of next year. Basically in a year's time, Feihe will transpire from a once BK/Dilution candidate to a debt free company that lowered their share count from 21 million shares to 19 million, all the while increasing their sales as evidenced by their 2nd best quarter ever, quarter ending 12-31-11 with $87 million dollars in revenue.
So why invest in Feihe ?
Well after five confirmed channel checks, all with boots on the ground in China, the one thing that is for certain is that Feihe is a 100% legitimate business operating in China. Two of those checks are by large short sellers, one by an independent research company and two by investor relations personnel, neither working for, nor ever have for Feihe and one worked for Feihe's competitor. Doris Zhang of Feihe's Public Relations Department has made it crystal clear that the company will not be disappointing investors this year as far as guidance is concerned and will tend to low-ball expectations, opposite of the manner in which they disappointed investors last year. Feihe's valuation certainly fits the bill here with net tangible assets after debt conservatively over $9.00 a share and then add in some value for a business doing $300 million in revenues a year. Feihe is certainly worth considerably more than $3.82 a share, especially when you factor in the projected EPS of $1.00 in 2012. Consider their sector peer, Synutra International (SYUT) that currently carries a $330 million dollar market cap. Both Synutra and Feihe are virtually the same size operation, yet Feihe trades with a $70 million dollar market cap and a far better balance sheet. Synutra carries over $200 million in debt and its net tangible assets valuation after debt is $1.54 a share, so either Synutra is vastly overvalued or Feihe is severely undervalued.
Next, I was looking closely at Feihe's business and how they can continue to grow? This was very interesting, as I'm always looking for a catalyst. In my research, I found that Feihe's Super Premium AstroBaby line is gaining real traction with 890% growth in Q4 YOY, not only in their main-stay Tier 2 & 3 cities, but in the Tier 1 cities as well. I also discovered that just after the Chinese New Year ended, Feihe posted 200 new job openings, including sales representatives in multiple regions. This is certainly not the act of a company in dire straits financially and I nearly forgot to mention Feihe's credit facilities. Feihe has a total credit line as of December 31st of $111 million dollars with $31 million dollars used and $80 million dollars in available credit with their interest rates being Tier 1 rates paying 5.8% to a high of 6.2%. From the 10K http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789868/000114420412019060/v305692_10k.htm , Feihe saw their Super Premium infant formula traction translate into a 33% increase in their selling prices, rising from $7.94 per kilo to $10.57 per kilo. The Super Premium AstroBaby line has also conducted clinical trials performed by governmental agencies which have resulted in successful tests and found to be closest to breast milk in terms of babies physical growth and digestive systems.
2012 is the year of the dragon in China, which symbolizes power and wealth and estimates are for a 5% increase in babies born this year. An estimated 16 million plus babies will be born this year, coupled with relaxed government restrictions on the one child policy that allows couples who are both only children to have two kids of their own. In addition, rural couples whose first child is a girl over four years old are allowed a second child. With disposable income rising quickly, Chinese parents have more money to spend on children. Estimates call for the baby food market to double by 2015 according to researcher, Euromonitor International.
Safety is always a concern in China, especially in the dairy industry and here, Feihe has excelled. Feihe is considered a leader in quality and takes great pride having been in business for 50 years and not being involved in any food scandals. The 2008 melamine debacle gave the milk industry a black eye for sure, but for Feihe, who was one of the only companies not tainted in any way, they saw their share price soar to $42.00 a share. Before the Sequoia redemption when you look at the last 6 years of trading, Feihe never traded under $6.50 a share, with the bulk of that time trading above $10.00. I also noticed that over 90% of the trading days witnessed volume less than 100K. While the share price went from $8.50 to the $2's, no high-volume sell-offs took place. Feihe just launched on March 1st, an end to end tracking system designed and put in place by U.S. giant, Cognizant (CTSH), a $22 billion dollar company, so now consumers can track the source of milk powder from beginning to end, ensuring both quality and safety, plus an elimination about worry of counterfeit products. In March, new licenses were needed to be obtained to sell dairy products in China and all facilities had to be compliant and updated, which Feihe easily demonstrated and thus their new licenses were issued. Over 40% of existing dairies have been shut down due to the new regulations and being a highly regulated business, I'm sure even more of the weak players will fold up as China catches up to western standards.
I have an extremely reliable source that tells me Alfred Little is planning to come out with something very positive on Feihe after the last payment to Sequoia has been made at the end of this month. I can guarantee you that if true, many new eyes will be on the stock for sure. There are still plenty of shorts in the stock that I believe are now trying to make their way out as unscathed as possible.
These are the facts, you decide.
Disclosure: I am long ADY
Additional disclosure: While I believe ADY heads to much higher prices from here, I'm a trader and my objective is to trade in and out on the way up, although many times in 2009, Chinese stocks ran away from me on the upside and I was left in the dust. That scenario is certainly possible once again as sentiment changes.
ADY spoke with management few times yes on or before April 30th Sequoia final payment will be made & issues a PR as per ADY. They publicly stated it in 4th Qtr release also
Thanks for the advice but 200 day was .20 cents ago & acting very very good. Cup & Handle breakout 1 of the most powerful chart formations coupled with the fact that ADY's whole reason for going from double digits to $2's is OVER. Sequoia PR only days away & announcing fully repaid & ADY will be debt free by end of the year while still growing sales & earnings. GLTY & make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
ADY note from TC 2000 Guru Peter Worden yesterday afternoon
Peter Worden of TC2000 out with note on ADY. states
ADY appears poised for an upside breakout. The period of consolidation the last 10 weeks has been very bullish. The strong initial surge of buying came as the price rallied off the January lows. A Cup & handle price pattern has now formed with all of the indicators show the return of strong buying. ADY is ready to embark on another leg up from here. PW
ADY should pause at 200 day but imo will push through. Pull up 6 Year chart till Sequoia redemption last year ADY NEVER traded below $6.50 a share & mostly between $10 & $20 a share. ADY has set the stage to be debt free by years end & growing their sales & earnings in 2012. Compare valuations of ADY & SYUT same size co.s yet vastly different valuations...
ADY breakout of Cup & handle formation powerful mover & over 6 month break of $4.00 on high volume move. All signs point to ADY going to $5's rather quickly imo....GLTA & make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Interesting take perhaps he's right link
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1046356-mindful-investor/509511-buy-chinese-stock-now-there-will-be-no-hard-landing-in-china
Many wont take notice of his note till tonight scanning charts & notes .... The only reason I caught it so early is I had ADY on my current chart when it came up. Only Day 1 of break & Cup & Handle formation one of the most powerful movers
ADY Peter Worden of TC2000 out with note on ADY.
ADY appears poised for an upside breakout. The period of consolidation the last 10 weeks has been very bullish. The strong intial surge of buying came as the price rallied off the January lows. A Cup & handle price pattern has now formedwith all of the indicators show the return of strong buying. ADY is ready to embark on another leg up from here. PW
ADY running on high volume & 6 month break of $4's ...little resistance till low $5's
ADY well above avg Volume today solid break $4's hasn't happened since Nov 2011, little resistance till low $5's
ADY again under accumulation pull up 6 Year Chart & before Sequoia redemption last year NEVER under $6.25 a share & mostly between $10 & $20 a share. Sequoia's final payment only days away & ADY confirmed will PR when issued. So the very reason ADY went from $12.50 to $2's was the fact NO ONE thought they could repay Sequoia & now complete with ADY waking up to savvy investors who see value in legitimate China co.s. A net Book of $9.33 a share PLUS whatever a 300 mill $$$ a year business at a 3 P/E is worth on top of that $9.33 = a ADY Homerun in 2012 imo...........Get on the train imo......
ADY being accumulated & couple of new catalysts over next 2 weeks S/A articles & company PR on final Sequoia payment retiring all of the 65 mill in debt.
ADY imo under accumulation ck chart setting up nicely for return back above $5.00 soon
CTC Century 21 China lots of cash No debt losses money but thinster with Chinas going..
You can What If just about any business & being ADY celebrating it's 50th year in business & has had NO quality issues or involved in any scandals I believe their reputation for high quality products is what is driving the last few years sales growth & expect it to continue especially with super premium line taking off. ADY is trading at 1/3rd net book & 1/5th price to sales & at 3X's 2012 projected earnings. For a 100% confirmed legit China co. they s/b trading at a premium not a huge discount imo....
GLTY & make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
ADY Mkt Cap 60 Mill $$$ remember share count lowered to 19 mill from 21.4 mill as ADY elected to buyback preferred shares instead of letting 65 Mill $$$ worth convert at $3 a share. Tell me 1 China smallcap that has done this ??? ALL would have let them convert instead of coughing up 65 mill $$$ in Cash to Sequioa Capital.
Another Rare event ADY sold dairy farms for 133 mill $$$ UNLIKE every small cap chiscam buying over priced land or buildings or factories or other business that have little or no value.
ADY has Net Tangible Assets after Debt of $9.33 a share & tiny Mkt Cap of 60 Mill $$$ compare with sector peer SYUT at 340 Mill $$$ Mkt Cap even though they both have similar sales & earnings BUT SYUT has tons more debt & $1.54 a share Net Book Value....
Float is very small approx 9 mill shares as Insiders own almost 10 mill Shares...
Infant formula & milk is one of the highest regulated biz in China thus reducing fraud chance to nill & ADY celebrating it's 50th year in biz.
ADY the only China infant formula co. doing clinical research trials being conducted by china Govt & had stellar results.Also of note ADY 1 of the Only China milk co.s NOT involved in any way of the Melamine debacle of 2008 & has never had any quality issues.
Pull up a 5 Year Chart ADY was NEVER under $6 a share till a few months ago then look at Vol that dropped it from $8.70 to $2's ??? Low to No Vol every day no mill share days
Cash flow from operations in 2011 was Positive 87 million dollars & reduced their debt from 147 Million dollars in Dec 2010 to currently 82 million dollars reducing debt by almost 66 MILLION $$$$. Also please note Sequoia will be 100% paid off this month = total repayment of 65 million dollars certainly not the mark of a co. going BK lol....
Couple of other quick points ADY still will receive another 101 Million Dollars over the next 5 Quarters from farm sale & will most likely be completely Debt Free by Years end.
ADY's line of credit is for 111 Million Dollars with 31 Million used & 80 Million Dollars in Unused credit & BTW Interest rates are Tier 1 rates at 5.8% to 6.2% very low for China .
As far as other assets they could sell if needed would be one of their multiple newer updated GMP compliant production facilities which imo they wont sell as they have no need to but could...
While I agree there are some negatives on ADY like the quality of their earnings & relying on Govt subsides the bottom line is their Premium Astrobaby formula is gaining real traction & becoming a higher % of sales every Qtr enhancing margins nicely. Avg selling prices for ADY formula thanks to Astrobaby line rose from $7.94 per kilo to $10.57 per kilo 33% Increase YOY....
ADY is trading over $6.00 per share below Net Tangible Assets after Debt valuation & when compared to SYUT ( 340 Mill Mkt Cap ) one does have to wonder is SYUT severely overvalued or is ADY ( 61 Mill Mkt Cap ) severely undervalued ??? Time will tell...
SINO finding China love on vol....
ADY correct as in 10K due to Super premium line Astro Baby gaining real traction their infant formula pricing increased 33% from $7.94 per Kilo to $10.57 per Kilo & BTW Astrobaby line in Tier 1 cities & gaining traction
ADY I agree with you as 40% of dairy operators just closed due to new Govt regs & thankfully all 7 ADY facilities are GMP compliant & passed iwth new Govt regs...Also keep in mind ADY one of the very few that was CLEAN in whole 2008 Melamine debacle hence stock went to $45 a share....