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So, right off the bat Andy says they will have to share the tax credit to get business so we cannot rely on the credit to put as much money back into our pocket as some surmised. I see this as an area that we might have the upper hand in some situations where we get into horse trading since we have the whole value chain. I can see deals like we will grant X amount of the credit if you use our tanks, transportation, service, and other products potentially.
Plants of 500 tons a day. That is huge, but melds to what I've read recently saying that small suppliers may go bankrupt as bigger plants take over the business.
Wow, Roberto actually got back to me. First time since the lawsuits over accounting. Hi Steve – and do feel free to reach out to me directly.
Couple of items this to note in response to two articles – attached are some pictures from COP27 so check the background
FFI Fortescue: Our movement in the partnership is ongoing, and we are working with them on the Gibson project as planned, and working through details and specifics on the JV.
Fertiglobe: We have shipped 10MW already, with plans to ship another 5-10MW by year end. Not only is the 100MW project still in process as was previously announced months ago, we have ongoing conversations for additional electolyzer opportunities with Fertiglobe.
N.B. The article regarding Orascom refers to a spokesman at Scatec. Plug’s contractual agreement for electorlyzer is between Plug and Fertiglobe, not Scatec who is a shareholder of the consortium.
This was recent I thought. If false, he should be sued or at least made to retract the article and banned from ever writing in regard to Plug.
Seen two recent articles calling into questions if deals in Egypt and with Fortescue were still on. Not sure if this was short misinformation or maybe true and we are not being transparent like with delays and other issues. Sorry, I do not have the links, but they were in my feed last week.
While I'm used to being disappointed with performance and continued losses, I think this last quarter got their attention. They talked about being conservative, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt in that regard. They made mistakes on how long things take to get done and supply chains issues have been a challenge for most companies. Now they know this and next time should have a better idea what is involved to get a project done. I think they may go after the lower hanging fruit using Olin and cutting cost until the market builds up. You don't want to be ahead of the market and left with products in inventory or H2 you cannot sell yet if the economy tanks. Saw an article the other day that said many small electrolyser companies selling 1gw units versus the bigger units that companies are going to may end up bankrupt as the market could be oversupplied in a few years. Have a good weekend.
Jack, we know that PLUG will continue to lose money on H2 until such a point they can produce enough of their own to cover the cost of what we subsidize our customers. At least with Nat. gas back down that might help a smidge. At this price I think shorting is a real gamble and the odds do not favor it unless you assume things are just going to get a whole lot worse and granted, they very well could, but we are priced pretty low. Also, if things get real bad Powell will back off or slow down the rate increase for a breather at least and that would rally markets. Don't get greedy here as we know things can flip for odd reasons either way.
We basically are getting back what we had in the morning and lost later in the day at this point. This could be a one-day event, another bear market rally, or an early Christmas rally. We will see. Thing is long term none of these matters unless you are trading. We will move with the markets until we have profits. Retail has very little power sadly and Algos and Bots do in this day and age. Always a better way to game the system I guess to favor the house. Funny if we did what they do we would end up in jail for market manipulation.
I hope you are right, and it was not a Freudian slip he just forgot. I'm slightly older and no way I could keep up with what he has to on a daily basis. Thanks.
So, it seems 2023 is in the works as far as plants and now we just have to see if they can stay on schedule. I hope they overestimate the time so that we are not negatively surprised because if production is late the mix cost will be up and we miss again at the end of 2023 as far as being BE. Whatever that means. I want to see us in the black quarter after quarter. Wondering when that date will be? Thinking 4Q 2024 or 2025?
Listening to the call and Andy did say there would be some upfront cost(charges) when talking about industrial products and then when asked by Joe on a follow up question, Andy goes blank and has no memory of saying it. The rest of the call was pretty consistent. I found it interesting that they are trading off some of the credits to get business. Seems like Andy likes sharing and giving away the store. I wonder how necessary it is if you truly are the leader why? No one asked them about adding a fuel surcharge to help cover our increased cost. No one asked about their compensation being obscene as compared to peers and no one asked about them or the company buying shares.
I did gather that working with Olin maybe a quicker way to market and lower cost than setting up our own plants and expect them to use that method more in the future.
Last post. You mean like Congress where everyone gets rich trading on inside information. I think you are naive to believe that people will not work in their own self-interest first. Look at Plug as a prime example. The top management and Andy are paid way more than most companies their size and even the fortune 500 companies. They have put their self-interest above that of shareholders, in my opinion. I lean conservative, and don't back unions, but think our pay is way out of line. We have had many missteps in this journey, but no one but shareholders have paid the price. No one in management has lost their job due to accounting issues, delayed project or cut projects. No one got pay cuts either. So, where's the accountability? Granted this is a new industry and mistakes will be made. I hope we learned something, but wonder.
I doubt that once the Reps. take control of the house much of anything that was passed changes except maybe the 80k IRS agents. There will be gridlock on anything new and maybe they can pressure Biden to loosen up on energy, which would be a good thing and help get us out of this mess sooner. Gridlock is usually good for the market. Plug is already down what 66% for the year so hoping it does not get worse! About time for some support of the stock from our leader. Amazing he's so gun ho about the future, but his actions don't show it.
Well, that makes no sense in this case. Andy to get $50 million if the stock hits $100 a share in 2024 as part of his package. To me it makes sense that you want the public to know you support the stock by buying in the open market. Why hide it unless you don't want anybody to know you might be selling it based on inside information and fear being sued.
I do not agree with this guy at all, but here's his report.
Fair enough, but you can follow the logic of the argument. Words have little meaning if not followed by action and results. While I will agree we have come a long way since I started buying PLUG in the $2-$4 range before stupidly buying a boat load in the $40's there have been promises of being profitable, accounting issues, dilution, delay after delay that just continues to push back being a profitable company. Still, no one buys the stock in the open market from management even after the huge price drop. Why? If you truly feel we hit $100 in 2024! There is nothing they could buy or do other than buying their own stock to get them a 5X+ return in that short amount of time. They want us to believe it, but apparently, by their lack of action say otherwise. After the boasting by Andy at the Symposium one would think that the $100 price is in the bag and yet where's the action that matches the words? Is it all show and salesmanship or does he believe what he says? I'd like to hear what others think on this matter is all.
Most likely Plug will finish up on things they said would be done in 2022. No doubt things have slowed down. I was surprised that FFI was not even mentioned at the Symposium nor Forest an invited guest. Maybe his and Andy's ego could not fit in the same room. I'm a long-term investor here and like many have suffered the dilution of the stock each year as millions of shares are granted to insiders. All of Andy's talk of the greatest and boasting seems hollow when he and none in positions of power buy shares in the open market. Logically, if Andy is going to get his 50 million payday to get the stock to $100 in 2024 wouldn't it make sense to buy shares to get a 5X return within 2 years with their or company money? Where else can they get that type of return? This tells me Andy is talking a big game, but in reality, he does not believe and neither does management. This is the same thing all of us have seen over and over in the past what 10 years now. So, tell me, build my confidence, why should any of us trust Andy at this point?
Thanks! Funny, I said the market would be up before the election. Amazing how things happen.
Well, will be traveling to Inverness, Scotland for 9 days so not sure what the wifi will be like. Hoping things are looking better when I get back.
Yes, I heard it, but then stuff happens and heard it all before. I will believe it when it actually happens.
It was a service that did a review, Wall Street something and private. I don't make stuff up and have been here for years. It was their opinion based on their research. At this point and after years of chasing being profitable, I would not be surprised if 3 years is about right. They are talking 2024 themselves so 2025 would not be unreasonable since it seems we are about 12 months behind in building our plants. Being a more recent investor here you might not have heard all the projection never met and them saying a few times not needing money and then within 24 hours doing a huge stock sale. Andy has been terrible with teases, projections and over promising and under delivering over the years. Until recently he was getting better and then the stock sale timing with the huge secondary and accounting issues really hurt his credibility. Don't get me wrong I have tried to like Andy as he seems a genuine nice guy, but his leadership has been lacking, in my opinion. Sure, he has vision and enthusiasm, but his lack of empathy for shareholders and seeing what his main priority should me is a major flaw. Again, my opinion.
We would be much closer to profitable if our salaries were in line with our peers. With Andy getting $52 million versus $8.6 million and the top executives $25 million it takes away from the bottom line. Add to that all the warrants to Walmart and Amazon and we pay them to do business. I had hoped that would have stopped since we are no longer desperate for business, or at least I thought. Between that and the dilution from the offering and all the stock granted the only ones taking a beating are shareholders. Granted the few that bought cheap and held are still up the I would venture to say the vast majority that bought in the last 2 years or so are way down. From a report I read this weekend they felt in 3 years we would still not be profitable. I hope they are wrong, but I thought we would have long been profitable and believed Andy. I cannot take a loss because mine is in an IRA, so I hold and hope, which is not a good way to invest. I just feel management has put themselves as #1 and shareholders and profitability at the bottom of the priority list. So, prove me wrong. Who else pays near what we pay and makes no profit? If they really cared, they would reset their priorities and buy shares in the open market and make cut in pay until at least they made a sustained profit. Maybe, I'm old school, but I expect results before rewards.
I guess time will tell on this one with sales numbers in the future, assuming they tell us. I would had hoped by now that they learned from previous miscalculations and the market and pricing were now in line to roll this out. Noticed nat. gas is in the low $5 range so that should help some after being in the $8-$9 range.
So, you don't think they have thought this out or did not have the demand prior to attempting to pierce this market? I'm thinking they listened to customers. Many might feel any extra cost maybe worthwhile to have a cleaner work environment and more efficient. Some may feel it is better for the planet. For all we know the cost savings maybe there or on par with batteries. Maybe you should talk top Jose since you have visited Plug, he may be open to talking to you.
Not true anymore with the new product. Seems smaller users with 25 lifts would be a fit and why that product was developed. Anyway, it seems the big money, up to $2 Trillion is backup and microgrid for data centers and large plants. Seems MSFT is not quite ready to commit yet, but that and supply green H2 should be a major push. Now if we wish to make supply deals of H2 for trucks that would be fine but buying a truck firm where we have no expertise would spread us too thin, which we already are in my opinion. Funny there was no talk about airplanes, drones, airports and tuggers etc. I asked a ton of questions, and nothing picked, but I did not expect them to. The only time IR listens is when they are afraid of being sued, sadly.
Andy sure was not modest and is sure to tout the positive while taking no responsibility for the negative. He teased the class 8 truck thing more than a few times and now seems to have changed his mind. Just maybe he sees that no one so far has really succeeded in that space and the market and infrastructure, nor green H2 supply is not there yet. A partner maybe wise, but they seem to want to work with truck people like Cummins. I do wonder why they cut back on 2 new plants if as they say demand is so strong, they cannot make enough product? Are things costing more than expected and they feel raising more capital with the stock low would be detrimental, so they need to conserve cash? I was surprised that Twiggy was not onboard with us or having a video? Is there an issue with him and is that deal still intact. No one from SK was there. Msft guy was like well let's see what the next package is and then maybe we can work together type attitude.
Plenty of big names like Proctor and Gamble, Dry Goods like cereal makers, paint companies, canned goods companies, beer distributers. There are tons of warehouse's all down major highways near cities that could use our products.
I worry about Paul as he is morbidly obese and with that stress, he could stroke out or have a heart attack. This presentation seems choppy and at times unprepared and not as professional as Blooms. I hope Andy's ego was knocked down a peg when he looked at the stock price. Hey, Andy investors want profits and to make money. Sure, we all want a clean world, but that I also want to have money to enjoy life and at this point I'm down 6 figures believing we would be profitable as you have told us a few times before. Now we maybe BE, most likely EBIDTA, by the end of 2023. So, we will we actually be in the black? So, they delayed plants, were 12 months late on some, have no class 8 deal teased last year. On the bright side Nat. Gas was down in the $5's.
What I learned. They are learning as they go, and it is a huge task. Would have like to hear Twiggy speak. Thought he was our big partner. While I'm excited about the future in 2026 and 2030 near term I'm not and if I was not already knee deep in paper losses would tell myself to come back in a year or so. I think things get worse before better or we trade in a $15-$30 range for the next 12 months sadly.
Well, pedestals and new customers and Amazon will be adding vans and trucks. So, will Hyvia be a US supplier? Do we have a truck deal to work with Amazon? Kind of disappointed with MSFT. Is all they have to say is so, what do you have in the works now? How about a few dozen sites and deals in Ca. Geez! I'm feeling like we are being played.
Sure he's just trying to get people to sell so his short buddies can cover before the big news comes out at the Symposium.
Yes, that was from the Street, Cramer's group saying we may retest $13. Kind of a weird call it seems right before the Symposium. I don't say it cannot happen, as I did not think we would be where we are now. If the market continues its downturn and the world has a recession, then anything could happen. So, I ask myself would I buy Plug at this price? Would I buy it lower? I still say yes, knowing that we have some potential huge government back deals soon, a large backlog, and while things are delayed, they are not cancelled. This is just, yet another, bump in the road none of us needed. It is frustrating and maddening at times. Keep the faith!
Yes, kind of figured with their big two cutting back on growth it has to slow our projections also. Granted this just pushes things out and shows we had some inexperience when it comes to just how long it takes to get these big projects permitted and ready. Hoping, we get past this, and it is a learning experience. I see 2023 as another big building year on our many projects and adding more with the 2022 tax bills funding going forward. I really have no big expectations on the stock price. Maybe we see $40 again by the end of 2023 if we are not in a global recession and we progress with reducing cost and losses. I also fear that another dilution will be coming sooner than many may think in 2023 or things will have to slow down due to the economy. Some of these we have no control over. We do have control over money to management in stock grants and if you are continuing to lose money there would be a place to cut back until we make a profit!
I realize that. It just gave the shorts cover and a way steal shares is all. They will reload and sell us off again after the symposium most likely. I guess better to get bad news out of the way before earnings then a big surprise after the symposium and making it look like they were hiding it. Been here forever and don't plan on leaving but owning this stock has been an emotional rollercoaster over the many years.
Thanks, Chris, for all the info. I had concerns this would happen, but no one listened, including me. Now I am down even more. Thank God I don't need this to live off of or I'd be screwed. Well, just more delays. Maybe profit in 2025 now or 2028 now or 2030 now? Who knows?
Good to see this agreement finally getting off the ground next year and producing H2 in 2024. Let's hope there are no delays so they can reach that 2030 goal.
Andy tends to be overly optimistic and not a realist when it comes to deals and their outcomes and just how many hoops you have to go through to get anything done. From our factory to our plants everything seems behind. The one that actually moved pretty quickly was the deal with Lhyfe just recently. With the economy in the toilet and many cutting back or delaying projects and growth we cannot expect it to have no effect on us. Both Amazon and now Walmart announce cuts of 1000 people from its Atlanta fulfillment center.
About time. When groundbreaking started it was to be done in early 2022 it seemed. I don't think Andy had any idea as to how long and how much red tape that his party of choice puts in your way to get anything big accomplished. Plant Vogtle (2012 edition), the only nuclear plant being built in the US, was to open in 2016\2017 and still not open, and now to be done by 2024? The cost was $14 billion and now $30 billion. Regulations and cost overruns are par for the course. The new rectors will provide 2200 MW of base load power.
Mulag was working with Plug at the Hamburg airport. I think in 2019 we were a bit ahead of the curve, but with regional airports getting closer to having available Green H2, like in Dallas\Ft. Worth we will start seeing ground equipment and then small planes start using H2 over the next few years maybe starting soon as supplies come aboard. With airports creating so much pollution with ground equipment, diesel generators and planes it is just a matter of time.