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The $.245 is conjecture on my part only, not a legal tender offer. I provided the math I used to arrive at the value, but I have nothing more to substantiate the validity of my claim.
I am not aware of a pending Form 15, Form S-1, going private, or reverse merger.
I am aware, because it is publicly stated, the company intends to use the proceeds from the RS to finance the trials in the US and to finance commercialization of the product/process in Europe. Also, the company is seeking additional long term financing.
There are many opportunities and possibilities. I have not seen anything written in a SEC filing or press release from Delcath to make them believable.
If anyone has pertinent information to any of these scenarios, I would be most grateful if they would share.
All the best.
MM
I agree with your thought on dilution. Thank you for the response.
This is why I think there is an opportunity in DCTH, and why I invested.
On 6 Nov, 490,000,000 shares became 1,400,000 during RS.
During RS stock price went from approximately .05 to $17.50.
The market cap remained the same at $24,500,000.
At a $24.5M market cap and projected OS of 100,000,000 shares, the dilution of $17.50 per share is $.245.
This assumes no positive AND no negative news...
I think a 5X reward is worth the risk. (All of us will take $.24 for our shares today).
I believe there is real potential for positive news. Although, that is conjecture on my part, as I do not have a functioning crystal ball.
MM
Buy low and sell high is the basic rule of investing.
Something for you to ponder and determine your own risk appetite. Do your own research and due diligence.
DCTH stock price was at .05-ish before the 350:1 RS.
Do you, as an investor, believe the value of the company is only 1/350th (0.29%) now, compared to before 6 November? The stock price is the same as before @ 05.
When the dilution and fear subside, the price will stabilize, then move up. This will require clarity on the future of the business.
In my humble opinion, the next 10Q will provide that clarity. Until then, little news is forthcoming.
I also concur the short interest is nearly zero, or insignificant at this time and price.
I am not a DCTH stock pumper or a basher. I think for myself and try to find opportunities.
I appreciate your opinion. Especially well thought out opinions that differ from mine, as they give my things to consider.
MM
240 Patients in trial was announced in October 2016.
At that time there were 20 patients already enrolled.
How many patients are enrolled now?
Do the original 20 count toward the 240?
NEW YORK, Oct. 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Delcath Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: DCTH) (the "Company"), an interventional oncology company focused on treatments for primary and metastatic liver cancers, announces that Jennifer K. Simpson, Ph.D., MSN, CRNP, President and Chief Executive Officer, has issued a Letter to Stockholders providing a business update. The full text of the Letter, which has also been posted to the company's website, follows below.
We have made great strides with our clinical programs. In January, after reaching a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the design of our new, global Phase 3 clinical trial, we initiated enrollment in "A Randomized, Controlled, Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Melphalan/HDS Treatment in Patients with Hepatic-Dominant Ocular Melanoma," or the FOCUS Trial.
This trial is evaluating our Melphalan/HDS system versus best alternative care in 240 patients with ocular melanoma liver metastases. The trial's primary endpoint is a comparison of overall survival between the two study arms; secondary and exploratory endpoints include progression-free survival, overall response rate and quality-of-life measures. The SPA provides agreement with the FDA that the Phase 3 trial design adequately addresses objectives that, if met, will support the submission for regulatory approval of Melphalan/HDS.
Most recently, we were pleased to report on the expansion of the Focus Trial to several world- leading oncology centers in Europe and the U.S. We are proud to report that this trial is now actively screening and enrolling patients at eight clinical sites in the U.S. and five clinical sites in Europe. In recent months we held U.S. and European Investigators Meetings. The investigators' strong interest and excitement in participating gives us further confidence this expansion will enhance our progress and allow us to stay on track to complete enrollment in mid-2018 with the potential for a pre-specified interim analysis around the end of 2017. Including these leading oncology centers increases visibility of our Melphalan/HDS as an innovative potential therapy for cancers of the liver. Importantly, a number of the world's key opinion leaders (KOLs) are participating in the study, which should enhance future commercial efforts.
Our global Phase 2 clinical program in HCC and ICC continues to move forward. As we have discussed, the HCC portion of this study is enrolling at a slower pace than the ICC portion due to the stringent HCC inclusion criteria, the small target patient population and competition from other trials seeking to recruit similar patients. We are near completion of the 11-patient cohort of ICC patients and expect to report top-line results by the end of this year. In addition, European Investigators have undertaken a retrospective data collection for patients with ICC in Europe. These promising outcomes and observations were discussed with our KOLs at a Delcath-organized Medical Advisory Panel Meeting and led to the agreement that the CHEMOSAT treatment does, indeed, demonstrate an efficacy signal and is worthy of immediate full clinical investigation. As a consequence, we are focusing our resources on advancing the ICC indication, an area where we have strong KOL support, an established efficacy signal and a development program ready to be discussed with the FDA.
Also underway is a patient registry study in Europe with the goal of gathering safety, efficacy and quality-of-life data in multiple tumor types from commercial cases performed by participating cancer centers in Germany, the U.K. and the Netherlands. We are pleased that the first 20 patients, all of whom have ocular melanoma, have been entered. Enrollment in this registry continues with a variety of tumor types to be entered. These data will be used as supportive evidence in our global Health Authority submissions.
One of the benefits of the robust clinical development we have underway is the bolus of data these studies generate. Throughout 2016 a number of important clinical studies have been presented at prestigious medical meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals. A white paper from an Expert Forum held in February 2015 to share information and clinical experiences using CHEMOSAT to treat primary and metastatic liver cancers has also been accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. The ongoing presentation and publication of positive clinical data in support of CHEMOSAT is encouraging and holds untold benefit.
We continue to make inroads with market access and commercial clinical adoption in Europe where our system is CE-marked and sold under the CHEMOSAT® name. With a number of company-sponsored clinical trials, interest in investigator-led trials and the European registry underway, we are seeing an uptick in usage. Yet we caution that we do not expect this to translate into a significant increase in commercial revenue in the near term. A key driver for converting usage into sales is reimbursement, which in Europe is painstakingly negotiated on a country-by-country basis.
MM
In simplest form, market value is going up faster than dilution.
- Share price has gone up (or remained static) while share count has increased.
The question is why, or for how long...
Has anyone calculated the revenue (and revenue per share) of the 240 patients in the trial?
$700k revenue in 2017 was from how many systems sold in Europe?
76,000,000 shares OS and dilution is slowing.
I am apparently a dreamer.
I'm at 1,273,500, - (small investor)
Stop dilution, achieve long term financing, and DCTH is worth what value??
Share price of $.10 = $7.6M market cap
I can't see why this won't go to $80-$100M market cap. Potential for a future PE multiple is too much to ask, for now. Even at 120M shares OS, that is a nice .70 -.80 share price.
Patience.
MM
I find it odd that even with dilution, market cap is going up...
Does not seem right.
Date OS Delta Change Stock $ Market Cap
28-Nov 9387588 NA .16 $1,502,014.08
5-Dec 32355137 22967549 0.06 $1,941,308.22
12-Dec 69254016 36898879 0.06 $4,155,240.96
19-Dec 78773089 9519073 0.0555 $4,371,906.44
MM
I like your math. Looks good.
I do not believe the last card has been played in this hand, much less this game.
Send a note to their IR, plant the seed.
Only 9M share diluted in a week?!
hmmmmm
December 19, 2017, Delcath Systems, Inc. had 78,773,089 shares of
90 minutes until close.
Time for MMs to go to sleep and Delcath to post this weeks 8K SEC filing for OS share count
Volume will surpass 15M today.
Green on close at .059+
You are correct, if the news was negative, DCTH price would sink towards $0.
I don't know, maybe a relief rally is in the cards. (IE it didn't fail the preliminary safety analysis, and the company is unlikely to go out of business in January, so the stock price stays steady or goes up slightly)
I am bringing up that although this is good, it is only a small step forward. There are still many more things that need to happen to achieve long term success.
MM
This is good news, but not strong enough to be a near term catalyst.
Clinical trials for 240 patients will take some time.
While the trials are going on, the business will continue to burn thru money at $1.5M per month.
A real catalyst will be FDA approval and long term financing. (Assuming the financing does not further dilute share holders)
MM
Help me understand why more patients in a trial is a good thing?
240 versus 50 or 75...
The more patients the longer the trial will take. Right?!
Reference
31 samples is a statistically significant population to achieve 95% confidence interval. 240 is 99.9% confidence interval (this message boards favorite club)
240 patients.....
Isn't that higher than expected?
SWEET!
I'm not sure I understand.
If forced to close out the fail to deliver position, wouldn't that generate a buy on the open market?
http://finra.complinet.com/en/display/display.html?rbid=2403&element_id=9398
"4320. Short Sale Delivery Requirements
(a) If a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a non-reporting threshold security for 13 consecutive settlement days, the participant shall immediately thereafter close out the fail to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity.
(1) Provided, however, if a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency for thirty-five consecutive settlement days in a non-reporting threshold security that was sold pursuant to SEC Rule 144, the participant shall immediately thereafter close out the fail to deliver position in the security by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity. The requirements in paragraph (b) shall apply to all such fails to deliver that are not closed out in conformance with this paragraph (a)(1).
(b) If a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a non-reporting threshold security for 13 consecutive settlement days (or 35 consecutive settlement days if entitled to rely on paragraph (a)(1)), the participant and any broker or dealer for which it clears transactions, including any market maker that would otherwise be entitled to rely on the exception provided in paragraph (b)(2)(iii) of Rule 203 of SEC Regulation SHO, may not accept a short sale order in the non-reporting threshold security from another person, or effect a short sale in the non-reporting threshold security for its own account, without borrowing the security or entering into a bona-fide arrangement to borrow the security, until the participant closes out the fail to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity and that purchase has cleared and settled at a registered clearing agency.
No volume and red = bad day.
This is enough volume to be from dilution.
Disappointed.
MM
It is an error. The data on the bid and ask are incorrect.
Currently at .058
Points to ponder:
Delcath added an auditor to the board. <Not something a company going out of business would do.
They eliminated $9.8M long term debt to creditors. <Not something a company going out of business would do.
They still need more cash for continuing operations (burn rate at $1.5M per month) and to bring the product to market. Can they borrow again - take on more debt, or do they issue more class C shares (dilution)? The OS share count I have seen guessed at on this message board has not addressed need for continuing operations funding $.
Being de-listed from NASDAQ to OCTB gives more freedom to Delcath to issue shares regardless of stock price. However, there is little chance of achieving the previous market capitalization of $100+M.
My thoughts are speculation. I enjoy hearing others ideas.
My guess for January is a nice target of .10.
.30 is blue sky and .03 is grey sky.
Volume is going to evaporate starting on Monday 12/18. Most traders going on holiday....
Best wishes, and good luck!
MM
$.375 = Level 2 quote?
Simon says...
I wonder what Simon says after 30 days on the board and audit committee?
Simon Pedder, Ph.D., a scientist and pharmaceutical executive with a greater than 30-year career in drug development, has joined the Delcath Board of Directors and Audit Committee effective November 14, 2017.
.060 bid pre market.
Need to get thru the .06 resistance.
.05 is support. Unless dilution again, of course.
Rapture I hope you are correct.
I have read and re-read the Delcath Securities Form S-1/A.
I am very interested to know how much $ they raised thru the offering, new cash position, and new debt position. I am hopeful they raised enough to survive at least a year, with the current cash burn rate.
I am less concerned about going out of business in January, assuming they raised sufficient funds..
MM
Rapture I hope you are correct.
I have read and re-read the Delcath Securities Form S-1/A.
I am very interested to know how much $ they raised thru the offering, new cash position, and new debt position. I am hopeful they raised enough to survive at least a year, with the current cash burn rate.
I am less concerned about going out of business in January, assuming they raised sufficient funds..
MM
Resistance at .05 is very strong.
Good support at .045.
Volume isn't going to take us very far today.
The low volume is interesting. Seems too early to be holiday driven. Hopefully the dilution has slowed down -or temporarily paused.
MM
Thank you.
Just curious. What makes you believe that dilution will pause after this week?
MM
Wealth of Information on Decalth Website.
Actually well organized.
http://delcath.com/sec-filings/
Form 8K : 12/05
Form S-1/A : 11/02
Form 10-Q : 11/14
Authorized share quantity is staggering.
However, if the stock offering and issuance is completely diligently, they should have funding to be a continuing concern.
My apologies for the numerous postings and reference information to "old news". I am trying to come up to speed to all of the veterans of owning the stock.
MM
My investment is purely speculative.
I have no insider information or magical insight.
I invested because I believed the share price was down more than it should be and was due for a small correction.
Overall, I do believe the share price is beaten down because there is not a clear path to continuing operations past January.
H2004 - No offence intended. However, given the warm reception, I am starting to ask myself the same question. (why am I here)
I have no agenda. Just interest and curiosity into DCTH as an investment vehicle or lottery ticket.
MM
Anyone have insights to cash (capital resources) to keep the doors open past January 2018?
Reference 3Q results:
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17002708-delcath-announces-third-quarter-2017-financial-results
NEW YORK, Nov. 14, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Delcath Systems, Inc. (DCTH), an interventional oncology Company focused on the treatment of primary and metastatic liver cancers, announces financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017.
Highlights from the third quarter of 2017 and recent weeks include:
Revenue for the third quarter of 2017 increased 75% to $0.7 million from $0.4 million in the prior-year quarter;
Revenue for the first nine months of 2017 increased 53% to $2.0 million from $1.3 million in the prior-year period;
Medical University of Hannover achieved its 100th CHEMOSAT treatment milestone; over 450 commercial CHEMOSAT procedures have been performed in Europe;
Positive results from a single institution study of CHEMOSAT filtration efficiency were presented at 2017 CIRSE annual meeting in September; and
Reverse stock split effected at ratio of 1:350 on November 6, 2017.
Management Commentary
“During our third quarter, we focused on resolving the cash constraints and other restrictions related to our authorized shares limit, which necessitated the reverse stock split we effected on November 6, 2017. The authorized share limit prevented the Company from accessing the restricted cash otherwise available under our 2016 convertible notes. With the ability to issues shares now restored, we are able to access the balance of the restricted cash and begin exploring opportunities for new equity financing necessary to execute on our Clinical Development Program (CDP) and European commercialization,” said Jennifer K. Simpson, Ph.D., MSN, CRNP President and CEO of Delcath.
“Despite the cash constraints, revenues for the third quarter of 2017 increased 75% over the prior year quarter, continuing the steady growth in our core European markets. This growth was supported by the establishment of ZE diagnostic-related (DRG) reimbursement for CHEMOSAT in Germany last year, which we are leveraging to obtain market access and reimbursement in other regions such as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, Dutch Health Authorities have included CHEMOSAT treatment in their published guidelines for ocular melanoma liver metastases, an important step toward eventual reimbursement coverage of CHEMOSAT in the Dutch market. During the quarter, Medical University of Hannover performed their 100th treatment since beginning CHEMOSAT procedures in 2014, the second of our Europe centers to have achieved this milestone. Since launching CHEMOSAT in Europe, over 450 commercial CHEMOSAT procedures have been performed.
“In our Clinical Development Program (CDP), our primary focus continues to be on our FOCUS Phase 3 clinical trial of Melphalan/HDS in hepatic dominant ocular melanoma (the FOCUS trial). Enrollment in this trial has been proceeding more slowly than anticipated, and cash constraints during the quarter limited our ability to take steps to accelerate enrollment. With the reverse split effected we are exploring steps to accelerate enrollment, and will seek to add new trial sites in both the U.S. and Europe once new equity financing is secured. We still expect to conduct an interim safety analysis by the end of this year.
“For our pivotal trial in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), we continue to work with potential trial sites with a view to initiating enrollment when financial resources permit. Our ICC pivotal trial is based on the prior work done in our Phase 2 trial program in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and ICC, which had the objective of identifying an efficacy signal worthy of further clinical investigation. This objective was met by the retrospective data collection performed by European investigators last year, which informed our development path for ICC. With the Phase 2 trial program goals now met, we have closed enrollment in the Phase 2 trials to devote available resources to the FOCUS Trial and the ICC pivotal trial.
“Though the recent months have been financially difficult, we remain committed to advancing the clinical programs for our innovative Melphalan/HDS as well as to our commercialization efforts for CHEMOSAT in Europe. We are continuously working to advance our ability to operate so we can advance these important programs to increase value to our shareholders,” concluded Dr. Simpson.
Three Month Financial Results
Revenue for the third quarter of 2017 was $0.7 million, an increase of 75% from $0.4 million for the third quarter of 2016. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased modestly to $2.9 million in the 2017 third quarter from $2.4 million in the prior-year third quarter. Research and development expenses for the third quarter of 2017 declined slightly to $2.3 million from $2.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Total operating expenses for the current quarter were $5.1 million compared with $5.0 million in the prior-year quarter.
The Company reported a net loss for the 2017 third quarter of $12.6 million, or $9.36 per share based on 1.4 million weighted average common shares outstanding on a split adjusted basis. This compares with a net loss in the prior-year period of $1.0 million, or $230.99 per share based on 4,349 weighted average common shares outstanding on a split adjusted basis. This increase in net loss is primarily due to an $8.7 million change in the fair value of the warrant liability and a $3.0 million loss related to two transactions to settle convertible note debt, both non-cash items.
Nine Month Financial Results
Revenue for the first nine months of 2017 was $2.0 million, an increase of 53% from $1.3 million for the first nine months of 2016. Selling, general and administrative expenses in the first nine months 2017 were approximately $7.8 million compared with $7.0 million in the prior-year period. Research and development expenses for the first nine months of 2017 increased to $7.1 million from $6.0 million in the first nine months of 2016. Total operating expenses for the first nine months of 2017 were approximately $15.0 million compared with $13.0 million in the prior-year quarter.
The Company recorded a net loss of $25.8 million for the first nine months of 2017, or $34.99 per share based on 754,421 weighted average common shares outstanding on a split adjusted basis. This compares with a net loss for the first nine months of 2016 of $9.5 million, or $2,232.30 per share based on 4,249 weighted average common shares outstanding on a split adjusted basis. The increase in net loss is due to an approximately $13.7 million increase in interest expense primarily related to the amortization of debt discounts and a $3.0 million loss related to two transactions to settle convertible note debt, offset by a $9.6 million gain on the extinguishment of the June 2016 Series C Warrants, both non-cash items. Additionally, there was a $1.9 million increase in operating expenses and a $7.9 million change in the fair value of the warrant liability, a non-cash item, offset by a $0.5 million increase in gross profit.
Balance Sheet Highlights
As of September 30, 2017, Delcath had cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 million, compared with $4.4 million as of December 31, 2016. In addition, the Company had $8.3 million in restricted cash primarily related to the Convertible Notes issued in June 2016. During the nine months ended September 30, 2017, the Company used $11.7 million of cash to fund operating activities.[color=red] Management believes that its capital resources are adequate to fund operating activities through January 2018.
Ramiro,
Using the data you provided "as of december 5, 32,355,137 shares (from SEC filings). DCTH capitalisation reached around $600 million in 2010 without any product. It reached 150/250 million several times."
$150 million market cap at 32,355,137 shares = $4.64 share price
If $150 million market cap at 100,000,000 share - $1.50 share price.
Purely speculation.
My opinion is that these share price values seem high. Maybe even 10X high.
MM
I prefer math and logic over hope and a guess.
Anyone have a share price calculation that is valid?
We need the current share quantity (I have found several websites with quantity and they vary wildly. I presume this is becasue of the current 350-1 reverse split and share issue going on)
We have data for revenue from 3Q and earnings from 3Q.
We should be able to calculate a current value and rough order of magnitude share price based on a modest PE ratio...
Anyone have the values and work complete that they want to share?
Id love to compare notes.
I'm in at .0059 X 1.25M shares.
Where do we go from here?
MM
I bought a few shares at .059.
Anyone see a direction on the stock that they can substantiate?
Potential impacts or developments looming in the near futre?
I am elated that there are shares in my portfolio that I had written off as no value. I can't thank the team enough for fighting the system and finding a way to win. Lee should start writing the best seller book immediately.
Now that the phoenix appears to truly be rising from the ashes, not just mere speculation, let the debates begin for when we start trading and at what price per share we will finally open at in the market.
My hypothesis is $1. Everything above $0 per share is amazing!
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
Moonster
Results:
In my job I often remind people it is not about the hours invested pursuing success, it is the results that We will use to measure your level of success.
There have been countless hours invested by a select few. The results so far are that we get to cling to hope. Which quite frankly is astonishing that we are still here.
However, now is the time to set new goals and new expectations. We must move forward to make progress and have a lasting impact.
What will your legacy be? Will you start or finish in 2015?
How can I help you achieve success?
Long time lurker. Infrequent poster. Real investor.
Moonster.
I am ashamed to say I "bought in" to this train wreck. Unrealistic dreams, with unsubstantiated claims of future gains.
Although all is not completely lost (1-3% of a future gain, and tax shelters for sale), there is no "pot o' gold" at the end of the rainbow here.
I know everyone did the best they could, and I appreciate their effort. Heck it was a lot of fun voting in a new board. That may be the only rewarding experience I walk away with.
At his point a reverse split is inevitable, and needed. A RS of 100:1 is too light. 1000:1 is closer. 10000:1 may offer more advantages for listing the stock on a reputable exchange and getting a trading house to sponsor and allow trades.
It will take a creative effort to even get this stock back to regular trading. (Let's face it, if you are a new to CPRKQ investor, exactly what are you buying into??)
Best wishes for a new year.
Regards,
Mark
Chuck - Thank you for the update.
Current news is always welcome.