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Thanks for your kindness in accepting my rudeness . I hope they address the issues . I really felt confident about the company .
I apologize my comment was too harsh. I know you do good work and you dont put out information to falsely profit . I am more upset with myself than anyone else .
LLEN it was a reply to a reply
Today i went from almost all cash to lots of hash . Im probably early as usual it really sucks in stocks and sex
Im buying a bunch here
Either its a fraud or some bold investors are going to make some serious dough
Wow
some serious sales going on
Regarding why they put out that "tidbit" before the full report, I'm sure they had their reasons...Perhaps to hurry the company/IR along in sending their response/documentation...Perhaps because rumors had already been starting to spread regarding the investigation.
See there is where i disagree . To me its just more of the rumor mongering .Lets get the facts and then post . I noticed you sold out yesterday was it because of the rumors . I dont blame you . You are probably smart to sell first and ask questions later . I am actually trying to add here . The stock is trading under a p/e of 2
CCME
starting to move again
I was just curious if anyone knows if you are a premium subscriber do you get this type of information before a general release ?
They have opened an investigation ? What if your investigation is without merit . Why not do your investigation and then report all the facts.
L&L Energy, Inc. (NasdaqGS: LLEN )
After Hours: 8.85 0.26 (3.03%) 7:29PM EST
Both TSTC and LLEN up afterhours on no news
OT
Great MLK you tube video
Pride - U2 - Martin Luther King
Enjoyed watching it with my 10 yr old daughter and her friend explaining how many great men sacraficed their lives for all of our freedom
Happy MLK day
Investor Sentiment: Extremes Don't Matter, This Time is Different
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2011/01/investor-sentiment-extremes-dont-matter.html
Until proven otherwise, extremes in the sentiment indicators don't matter as "this time is different". I never really believe that "this time is different", but that's what I have labeled those instances where prices lifted strongly despite the bullish extremes in sentiment. The current rally has taken on a quality reminiscent of 1995, 1998/ 99, 2003 and 2009. In these instances, it took bulls to make a bull market.
I have pointed out how dysfunctional the price action has been, and it is becoming pointless to anticipate a market correction. On the other hand, investing in a market that refuses to correct is problematic as well. It is a higher wire act without a safety net. It is my belief (guess?) that the correction will come sooner than most expect as market extremes with poor underpinnings (i.e, lagging market breadth) should correct (beyond a couple of percent), but as you know, the market doesn't care about what I think or do. For now, we must operate under the assumption that "this time is different" until it isn't.
The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investorswho historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) Market Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. The "Dumb Money" indicator is very bullish to an extreme degree.
Figure 1. "Dumb Money"/ weekly
Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore "entire market” value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "Insider transaction volume was seasonally slow this past week as the vast majority of insiders are prohibited from trading until their respective companies report Q4'10 earnings. With this backdrop in mind; sellers outnumbered buyers 3-to-1 and were the dominant force for the nineteenth consecutive week, dating back to the first week of September 2010."
Figure 2. InsiderScore "Entire Market" Value/ weekly
Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.
Currently, the value of the indicator is 69.82%, and this is the highest value in 10 years of data. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops.
Figure 3. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly
The extreme bullishness that the poll was talking about was from The American Association of Individual Investors is a nonprofit organization with about 150,000 members. This is a poll that is regularly taken like consumer confidence etc.They are not talking about individual stocks . Market sentiment is used as a contrarian indicator.It is just one measure and there is no one magic bullet for timing the market.Some other indicators pointing to a top is overall market stock volume decreasing .If the price is moving slowly higher, but volume keeps dropping off that could be another indicator of a top . The Vix is very low and has been for awhile.Mutual funds cash levels are very low see chart
http://home.comcast.net/~royashworth/Mutual_Fund_Cash_Levels/Mutual_Fund_Cash_Levels.htm
This is negative
Investors can boo hoo all of these indicators seperatly but taken together with our governments excess debt spending which is the main reason we have a plus gdp and soon to run out , Well its smart to hold some cash
I believe the investor sentiment they are talking about is for the direction of the overall market . I agree its only one indicator but there are plenty of smart people like Jeremy Grantham who think we could be near a market top . Of course individual stocks that have run like NFLX and some of the cloud stocks are more dangerous to hold than a AMGN or stocks that have not doubled and tripled in past year. imo.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1640401359
From St Louis Fed
The other side of the trade is that the data keeps getting better . When i see this kind of data it makes me stay long in some stocks .
Low US inventory's have a positive effect on future China growth especially export companies.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=ISRATIO
Graph: Inventory to Sales Ratio: Total Business (ISRATIO)
Shares trading down 6.8 percent in Munich
I bet AAPL has lined up this news of his medical leave with some blow out numbers that will be coming .
I personally am not worried about 5 % growth rate for China in 2011.
A 50% drop in growth would be difficult to see happening . What concerns me is the perception
" The financiers’ arguments center on the belief that China’s demand is not real but manufactured by the state."
These bears are very smart people with lots of friends in high places like media and government . I believe collectively they could create a lot of volitionality in the next year . In fact they already have . As an investor i always study the other side of my trade harder than my side.I have been burned too many times . I may miss tops and bottoms but in reality who really can catch a top and or bottom .
I would not like their side of the trade either
" However, even the hedge funds concede that their timing might not be perfect. Corriente warns that investors, who are required to put in a minimum of $1 million each, should brace themselves for an estimated burn-rate of 20 percent a year until the theory pays off. But it’s a risk that plenty seem willing to take, and many now seem to be accepting the occurrence of such a scenario as a matter of when, rather than if. "
They sure have BIG BALLS and and honestly i haven't lost my balls but they have gotten crushed a few times
Hu Highlights Need for U.S.-China Cooperation, Questions Dollar
Associated Press
Chinese President Hu Jintao delivers a speech at a plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in Beijing on Jan. 10. Mr. Hu's state visit to Washington begins Wednesday.
"We both stand to gain from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from confrontation," Mr. Hu said in written answers to questions from The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.
Mr. Hu acknowledged "some differences and sensitive issues between us," but his tone was generally compromising, and he avoided specific mention of some of the controversial issues that have dogged relations with the U.S. over the past year or so—including U.S. arms sales to Taiwan that led to a freeze in military relations between the world's sole superpower and its rising Asian rival.
On the economic front, Mr. Hu played down one of the main U.S. arguments for why China should appreciate its currency—that it will help China tame inflation. That is likely to disappoint Washington, which accuses China of unfairly boosting its exports by undervaluing the yuan, making its products cheaper overseas. The topic is expected to be high on U.S. President Barack Obama's agenda when he meets Mr. Hu at the White House on Wednesday.
Mr. Hu also offered a veiled criticism of efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate growth through huge bond purchases to keep down long-term interest rates, a strategy that China has loudly complained about in the past as fueling inflation in emerging economies, including its own. He said that U.S. monetary policy "has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows and therefore, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar should be kept at a reasonable and stable level."
Mr. Hu arrived in the U.S. Apriul 12, 2010.
Mr. Hu's responses reflect a China that has grown more confident in recent years—especially in the wake of the global financial crisis, from which it emerged relatively unscathed.
Mr. Hu reiterated China's belief that the crisis reflected "the absence of regulation in financial innovation" and the failure of international financial institutions "to fully reflect the changing status of developing countries in the world economy and finance." He called for an international financial system that is more "fair, just, inclusive and well-managed."
Mr. Hu, who also heads China's ruling Communist Party, rarely interacts with the international media. The Wall Street Journal submitted a series of questions to China's Foreign Ministry for Mr. Hu to answer. The Washington Post also submitted questions. The Foreign Ministry supplied Mr. Hu's responses to seven questions—but did not address questions about imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, China's growing naval power and complaints about alleged Chinese cyberattacks, among others.
Mr. Hu's veiled criticism of the Fed reflects widespread feelings among developing nations that U.S. interest-rate policy is devaluing the dollar, prompting flows of capital overseas and creating inflation elsewhere. China and other developing countries would like the Fed to factor in those consequences when it makes decisions. Fed officials counter that their mandate is to bolster the U.S. economy and that a stronger U.S. economy is in the interests of China and other countries, which depend heavily on trade and investment from the U.S.
This could be a major issue of contention between Messrs. Hu and Obama. The U.S. blames Chinese currency undervaluation—not Fed policy making—for worsening competitive and inflation problems overseas.
"This is a new ballgame in the first inning," says Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer about China's rise. In an interview with WSJ's Rebecca Blumenstein, Bremmer discusses the growth of Chinese economic and military power and President Hu's U.S.visit.
Some of Mr. Hu's most significant comments dealt with the future of the dollar and currency exchange rates.
"The current international currency system is the product of the past," he said, noting the primacy of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and its use in international trade and investment.
The comment is the latest sign that the dollar's future continues to concern the most senior levels of the Chinese government. Beijing fears not only that loose U.S. monetary policy is fueling inflation, but that it will erode the value of China's holdings of dollars within its vast foreign-exchange reserves, which reached $2.85 trillion at the end of 2010.
China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, created an international stir in March 2009 by calling for the creation of a new synthetic reserve currency as an alternative to the dollar. Mr. Hu's comments add to the sense that China intends to challenge the post-World War II financial order largely created by the U.S. and dominated by the dollar.
Mr. Hu called attention to China's accelerating effort to expand the role of its own currency, describing recent moves to allow greater use of the yuan in cross-border trade and investment—while acknowledging that making it a fully fledged international currency "will be a fairly long process."
China's moves already have spawned a thriving market for offshore trading of yuan in Hong Kong, and are widely seen as first steps toward making the yuan an international currency in line with China's new prominence as the world's second largest economy. Mr. Hu offered an enthusiastic endorsement of what are officially described as currency "pilot programs." They "fit in well with market demand as evidenced by the rapidly expanding scale of these transactions," he said.
Mr. Hu didn't signal any changes on the most sensitive aspect of China's currency policy: the exchange rate.
WSJ's Jake Lee speaks to Heard on the Street Asia Editor Mohammed Hadi about Chinese President Hu Jintao's comments on currencies, balancing the Chinese economy and China's growing clout abroad.
Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated the U.S. position that a stronger yuan is in China's own best interests, because it would help tame rising inflation that has become a key risk to China's rapid growth, which is underpinning the global economic recovery. A stronger yuan would reduce the price of imports in local-currency terms.
But Mr. Hu shrugged off the U.S. argument, saying that China is fighting inflation with a whole package of policies, including interest-rate increases, and "inflation can hardly be the main factor in determining the exchange rate policy."
Further, Mr. Hu suggested that inflation was not a big worry, saying prices were "on the whole moderate and controllable." He added: "We have the confidence, conditions and ability to stabilize the overall price level."
The U.S. argues that the yuan's real exchange rate—that is, the exchange rate as adjusted for the higher inflation level in China than the U.S.—is rising at a 10% annual rate. Treasury officials have argued to China that its policy options are limited—either it can boost the exchange rate to fight inflation, or inflation will effectively boost the value of China's currency.
While the U.S. says some Chinese economic officials buy that argument, it hasn't been widely adopted within China, as Mr. Hu's comments illustrate. But the U.S. feels that economics and time are on its side. Even so, the administration and Congress will continue to press China to boost the pace of its currency appreciation.
Mr. Hu renewed a Chinese pledge to offer a level playing field in China for U.S. companies, which have complained about aggressive Chinese moves to usurp their technology and shut them out of massive government-procurement contracts.
"All foreign companies registered in China are Chinese enterprises," Mr. Hu said, responding to concerns that China discriminates in government procurement against foreign businesses as part of its drive to encourage so-called indigenous innovation.
He added: "Their innovation, production and business operations in China enjoy the same treatment as Chinese enterprises."
The U.S. has been pressing China to revamp its plans for indigenous innovation, which foreign companies say put them at a disadvantage in competition with China's state-owned firms, which limits the types of government development projects and requires that companies get government approval to participate. China has pledged to join the World Trade Organization's government procurement agreement, which limits a country's ability to discriminate. But the U.S. and other countries say that so far China's WTO offer is inadequate because it exempts provinces, municipalities and state-owned enterprises. Last month China pledged to amend a buy-Chinese provision. During the Hu visit, the U.S. hopes to see some other commitments on this front from China.
Mr. Hu began his answers with a relatively upbeat assessment of China-U.S. relations, which he said had "on the whole enjoyed steady growth" since the start of this century.
He spoke of expanding cooperation from economy and trade into new areas like energy, infrastructure development and aviation and space. "We should abandon the zero-sum Cold War mentality," he said, and "respect each other's choice of development path."
On the diplomatic front, Mr. Hu entirely glossed over what has been one of the most dramatic developments of the past year—a series of disputes between a more assertive China and its neighbors that has given the U.S. an opening to shore up its relations with a part of the world that felt neglected by Washington while it fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In the past year, China has feuded with Japan over the seizure of a Chinese fishing boat and its crew off disputed islands; opened deep differences with South Korea because of its subdued response to military provocations by North Korea; and alarmed countries in Southeast Asia by declaring the South China Sea and its energy and mineral riches one of its "core interests."
"Mutual trust between China and other countries in this region has deepened in our common response to tough challenges, and our cooperation has continuously expanded in our pursuit of mutual benefit and win-win outcomes," Mr. Hu said, ignoring the regional turmoil.
( Some of these guys are very smart guys )
China Industry: January 17
China Bears Gathering as Analysts Question Economy
Jan. 17 – U.K.-based hedge fund managers are increasingly questioning the real depth of problems with the Chinese economy as details of potentially serious risks are emerging from the examination of sovereign and corporate credit default swaps, interest rate and foreign exchange options. A trend to look at “shorting China” is developing as unease begins to spread about the extent of China’s sovereign debt and the development of a massive bubble economy.
“The data doesn’t add up,” the London-based Daily Telegraph quoted one manager saying. “We think we’ve experienced credit bubbles over the past few years, but China is the biggest. And yet the global economy is looking to China as not just a crutch but a springboard out of the recession. It’s crazy.”
Hedge funds especially tend to have exposure to greater risks and accordingly have very keen analytical skills as a result. However more of them are now turning to viewing China not as a burgeoning economy sustaining world growth, but as a potentially massive trouble spot.
Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors, famous for being the American hedge fund manager who made millions of dollars predicting both the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, has started a fund based on the belief that rather than being the “key engine for global growth,” China is an “enormous tail-risk.” Hugh Hendry, former star of Odey Asset Management, also launched a distressed China fund at Eclectica Asset Management.
Other analysts are also becoming bearish. Lombard Street Research published a warning of China’s “already dangerously home-grown inflation,” while a recent study by Fitch concluded that if China’s economic growth falls to 5 percent this year, rather than the expected 10 percent, global commodity prices would plunge by as much as 20 percent. China is the global price-setter for oil, coal and base metals.
“Economists have contrarian views all the time. But these hedge funds have their shirts on the line and do their analysis carefully. The flurry of ‘distress China’ funds is a sign to sit up,” one economist told the Telegraph.
Similarly, Corriente Advisors stated: “We expect the economic fallout from a slowdown of China’s unsustainable levels of credit and growth to be as extraordinary as China’s economic outperformance over the past decade.” The financiers’ arguments center on the belief that China’s demand is not real but manufactured by the state.
Again, according to data from Corriente, China has consumed just 65 percent of the cement it has produced in five years, after exports. The country is outputting more steel than the world’s next seven largest producers combined. It has 200 million tons of excess capacity. In property, Corriente said it had found an excess of 3.3 billion square meters of floor space in China – yet 200 million square meters of new space is being constructed each year.
Despite the vast population, the property is generally out of the price range for most. House prices are around 22 times disposable income in Beijing. The IMF has said that housing prices in eastern cities have become “increasingly disconnected from the fundamentals,” but so far has said there is no nationwide bubble.
Professor Victor Shih of Northwestern University in Illinois estimates that Chinese banks have lent US$1.7 trillion to local state entities, many of which are not commercially viable and have used inflated land values as collateral.
However, two schools of thought are coming into play. On one side are the bears, who have argued about the dangers of China’s economy overheating for some time. But for many, the fact that hedge funds, particularly those with track records on previous crises, are launching specific funds is the sign that the bubble is close to bursting. Experts in China dismiss the hedge funds’ arguments as narrow and exaggerated. The Chinese government has implemented policy measures to curb credit and control inflation. Above all, they argue that China’s huge and modernizing population will fuel demand for years.
“I’m no economist, but I do know how to run a business in China,” states Chris Devonshire-Ellis, principal and founder of Dezan Shira & Associates. “Some of the projects I have seen across the country just do not seem to make sense – entire new cities, such as Ordos and Manzhouli with capacity for 5 million inhabitants yet with populations of just 150,000. Thousands of luxury apartments for sale in Chongqing costing US$2 million apiece yet for a local population with an average income of US$6,000 per annum. The boom in auto purchases also seems largely driven by state subsidies and cheap credit, and prices for even fairly basic facilities such as having a reasonably cheap drink and meal in a bar are now in excess of London or Paris. I’m told by economists that the space will be taken up by a migration of rural labor into cities, but I have seen no signs of this trend beginning. Instead, I see export manufacturers having to close in the south and a China losing employment to cheaper Asian destinations such as India and Vietnam. Much of it doesn’t make sense to me, it just doesn’t feel right, and I’m concerned that China may be concealing a larger problem. We are looking at growth this year from India, while for China we are adopting a far more prudent sense of development.”
However, even the hedge funds concede that their timing might not be perfect. Corriente warns that investors, who are required to put in a minimum of $1 million each, should brace themselves for an estimated burn-rate of 20 percent a year until the theory pays off. But it’s a risk that plenty seem willing to take, and many now seem to be accepting the occurrence of such a scenario as a matter of when, rather than if.
Related Reading
http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2011/01/17/china-bulls-gathering-as-analysts-question-economy.html
a problem is that a peak can only be determined in retrospect. How high is high?
I agree 100 % with your post .Thats why i am not 100% cash. I would rather miss the top or and buy the dips and sell the rally s for now .But i do believe one day in the next few months we will have a tremendous sell off in US equities . We just a 3 % sell off in the Shanghai last night. I had most of my trading account in China or US Biotech until recently . The problem with sell offs in China and Biotech's is that they were laggards last year. So the big sell off i expect this year is in the US market who knows maybe spending 90 % of your GNP product on debt will be the new math.We Americans were never good at math anyway.
Asia markets wrap: Shanghai plummets on inflation fears
Chinese stocks plummeted on Monday as last Friday’s reserve requirement hike sunk in and rising property prices fuelled speculation that further measures would be taken to rein in inflation. Most equities in the region fell, and currencies were down against the dollar.
“Worries about inflation will be an ongoing issue throughout this year,” said Nader Naeimi at AMP Capital Investors. “Authorities still have plenty of ammunition to fight inflation, but pressure on interest rates will act as a constraint on the economic performance of some countries in the region.”
China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 3 per cent to 2,706.66. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank led falls for banks, while property developers China Vanke and Poly Real Estate Group slid more than 6 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.5 per cent to 24,157.00, while South Korea’s Kospi index was 0.4 per cent down at 2,099.85.
India’s BSE Sensex ended its losing streak, edging 0.1 per cent up to 18,882.20. Tata Consultancy, India’s largest software exporter, rose 1.7 per cent in anticipation of results released later on Monday. Reliance Infrastructure, builder of the mass rapid transit system in Mumbai, sank 7.5 per cent after paying $5.5m in a settlement with the market regulator following an investigation.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell 0.9 per cent to 3,535.73, while Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa edged 0.3 per cent up to 1,574.49.
Asian currencies mostly fell against dollar, with the Indian rupee down 0.3 per cent, the Korean won 0.3 per cent, and the Indonesian rupiah 0.1 per cent. The Chinese renminbi bucked the trend, rising 0.1 per cent.
Congrats to both of you and thank you all of you for your hard work
All i have to say is be careful when everyone starts heading to the exit at the same time.
Greed is keeping everyone in for that last gap up . Cash is king . I lost 70% in 2000 in my trading accounts. Last year i made 150% in my trading accounts . This year i lost 33 % and have slowly made it back to even. I am about 70% cash . We may see 20% upside but we are so overdue for a big correction.
Investor Sentiment – Is It Different This Time?
Saturday, January 15, 2011. 10.30 a.m.
http://www.streetsmartpost.com/category/daily-update/
The fact that investor sentiment has reached levels of extreme bullishness and complacency usually seen at market tops has been well publicized for a couple of months. It has not resulted in a market correction, nor has the publicity intimidated investors into cooling off their enthusiasm.
Does that mean it will be different this time?
The bullishness is across the board.
The poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors has been in its warning zone, above 50% bullish, for some time. This week’s poll showed 52.3% to be bullish, down from the previous week’s 55.9%, but still in the warning zone.
The Investors Intelligence poll of investment advisors is at 57.3% bulls, only 19% bears. The spread, at 38.2% is in what Investors Intelligence considers to be in its danger zone (above 35%) and in fact is getting close to the all-time high spread of 42.4%.
The VIX Index, also known as the Fear Index, which measures the sentiment of options players, has been in the zone of low fear (high bullishness and confidence) seen at every rally and market peak since the 2007 market top.
If you sold every pop and bought every drop in CCME in the last 12 months i think you would have out performed almost every trader out there .That being said market feels very toppy here. I am lightening up on my meager positions except CCME . That will be my hedge .Last week market was down one day and CCME was up . We are due for at least 5 to 10 %. I need to be in
meetings rest of week .
$BMY $VRUS announce collaboration to eval BMS-790052 (NS5A replic complex inhib) with PSI-7977 (nucleotide polymerase inhib) for chronic HCV
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110110005933/en/Bristol-Myers-Squibb-Pharmasset-Enter-Clinical-Collaboration-Agreement
January 10, 2011 07:18 AM Eastern Time
Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pharmasset Enter into a Clinical Collaboration Agreement for Proof of Concept Combination Study in Patients Chronically Infected with Hepatitis C
Study is the first cross-company collaboration combining two oral, direct-acting antivirals
Study to evaluate the combination with and without ribavirin in treatment-naïve patients
NEW YORK & PRINCETON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) and Pharmasset (NASDAQ: VRUS) announced today that the companies have entered into a clinical collaboration agreement to evaluate the utility of BMS-790052, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s NS5A replication complex inhibitor, in combination with PSI-7977, Pharmasset’s nucleotide polymerase inhibitor, for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV).
“We are pleased to partner with Pharmasset on this important study to advance the scientific understanding of the potential for an all-oral regimen to treat hepatitis C. Conducting this study highlights Bristol-Myers Squibb’s ability to collaborate with other companies to develop innovative combination therapies in areas of high unmet need.”
This proof of concept study will evaluate the potential to achieve sustained viral response 24 weeks post treatment with an oral, once-daily treatment regimen in patients across HCV genotypes. Specifically, the study will assess the safety, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of BMS-790052 in combination with PSI-7977, with and without ribavirin, in treatment-naïve patients chronically infected with HCV genotypes 1, 2, and 3. The study is planned to start in the first half of 2011. This collaboration represents the first cross-company collaboration combining two oral agents to address a significant unmet medical need in the treatment of HCV.
“Bristol-Myers Squibb is committed to the goal of helping patients prevail over hepatitis C by investigating multiple therapeutic platforms,” said Brian Daniels, senior vice president, Development. “We are pleased to partner with Pharmasset on this important study to advance the scientific understanding of the potential for an all-oral regimen to treat hepatitis C. Conducting this study highlights Bristol-Myers Squibb’s ability to collaborate with other companies to develop innovative combination therapies in areas of high unmet need.”
”We are excited to be working with Bristol-Myers Squibb and to be investigating PSI-7977 with a different class of direct acting antivirals,” stated Michelle Berrey, MD, MPH, Chief Medical Officer. “This collaboration represents one of many approaches we are pursuing with our portfolio of nucleoside/tide analogs that include both interferon free and interferon sparing regimens. We believe the development of an all oral treatment regimen represents an important evolution in the treatment of HCV.”
About BMS-790052
BMS-790052 is an investigational oral hepatitis C NS5A replication complex inhibitor. NS5A is one of the essential components for HCV replication. BMS-790052 is one of several molecules Bristol-Myers Squibb is studying for the potential treatment of chronic hepatitis C. The portfolio of investigational compounds, which also includes a novel pegylated interferon lambda, fits into the company’s overall R&D focus on diseases where there is major unmet medical need.
About PSI-7977
PSI-7977 is a uracil nucleotide analog inhibitor of the NS5B polymerase being developed for the treatment of chronic HCV infection. Nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitors work by acting as alternative substrates that block the synthesis of HCV RNA, which is essential for the virus to replicate. PSI-7977 has been studied in combination with peginterferon and ribavirin for up to 12 weeks in genotype 1, 2 or 3 patients and is currently in two Phase 2b studies, one of which is investigating an interferon sparing regimen in genotype 2 or 3 patients. PSI-7977 is also being investigated in a 14-day combination study with PSI-938, a guanine nucleotide analog.
About Bristol-Myers Squibb
Bristol-Myers Squibb is a global biopharmaceutical company whose mission is to discover, develop and deliver innovative medicines that help patients prevail over serious diseases. For more information, please visit http://www.bms.com or follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/bmsnews.
About Pharmasset
Pharmasset is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company committed to discovering, developing, and commercializing novel drugs to treat viral infections. Pharmasset's primary focus is on the development of oral therapeutics for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our research and development efforts focus on nucleoside/tide analogs, a class of compounds which act as alternative substrates for the viral polymerase, thus inhibiting viral replication. We currently have four clinical-stage product candidates. RG7128, a cytosine nucleoside analog for chronic HCV infection, is in two Phase 2b clinical studies in combination with Pegasys® plus Copegus® and is also in the INFORM studies, the first series of studies designed to assess the potential of combinations of small molecules without Pegasys® and Copegus® to treat chronic HCV. These clinical studies are being conducted through a strategic collaboration with Roche. Our other clinical stage HCV candidates include PSI-7977, an unpartnered uracil nucleotide analog that is in two Phase 2b studies in patients with HCV genotypes 1, 2, or 3, and PSI-938, an unpartnered guanine nucleotide analog which recently completed a 14-day monotherapy study and has recently initiated a 14-day combination study with PSI-7977. We also have in our pipeline an additional purine nucleotide analog, PSI-661, in advanced preclinical development.
Pegasys® and Copegus® are registered trademarks of Roche.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Forward-Looking Statement
This press release contains “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, regarding the research, development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products. Such forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including factors that could delay, divert or change any of them, and could cause actual outcomes and results to differ materially from current expectations. No forward-looking statement can be guaranteed. Among other risks, there can be no guarantee that the compound described in this release will move from early stage development into full product development, that clinical trials of this compound will support a regulatory filing, or that the compound will receive regulatory approval or become a commercially successful product. Nor is there any guarantee that the transaction described in this release will receive the necessary regulatory approvals to close. Forward-looking statements in the press release should be evaluated together with the many uncertainties that affect Bristol-Myers Squibb’s business, particularly those identified in the cautionary factors discussion in Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009, its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and Current Reports on Form 8-K. Bristol-Myers Squibb undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Pharmasset Forward-Looking Statement
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As an investor i have learned to read very carefully the " other side of the trade "
This author makes some compelling arguments .
Did China Just Ring a Bell?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/245621-did-china-just-ring-a-bell
by Jack Sparrow
As the old saying goes, they don’t ring a bell when a market tops.
But sometimes it sure feels like it.
Two quick examples: The first from my days as a wet-behind-the-ears commodity broker in 1998.
I had come into the biz near the tail end of one of the most vicious commodity bear markets of all time. The president of the firm, a diehard grain bull, was convinced everything was about to turn around. Many of our big clients were farmers and he couldn’t bring himself to go bearish, repeating the mantra to “never short anything below the cost of production.”
A big crop report was coming out, and the whole office was bullish on soybeans. “Beans in the teens!” was the rallying cry, though soybeans were only pushing $6.00 per bushel at the time.
The crop report came out, and the news was incredibly bullish — just as we had anticipated. Soybean prices were set to explode! Except they didn’t. The futures climbed a couple cents on the open, then ran out of gas and slumped lower on the day.
The boss was frustrated beyond belief. “I give up!,” he shouted, throwing up his hands and walking out of the room.
Wheels were turning in my rookie brain. “If beans are that weak in the face of a big bullish report,” I thought, “maybe we should be shorting them in size.”
Unfortunately, as the “new kid,” I didn’t have the moxie to act on that idea — or the guts to go against the rest of the firm. And it was too bad… over the next eight months or so soybean prices plummeted, hitting a mind-boggling low of $4.02 per bushel in July 1999. I have little doubt that at least a handful of traders, more seasoned and more objective, made an absolute fortune on that move.
The second “bell ringing” example comes from June 2007, when the Blackstone Group (BX) went public.
Those were the days of private equity euphoria. In March ’07 The Economist had declared PE guys “the kings of capitalism.” In an over the top cover splash, Fortune magazine declared Schwarzman himself “the new king of Wall Street.”
Private equity had ridden a wave of cheap money mania to the ultimate leveraged glory, and Schwarzman was cashing out — via the IPO — at the perfect time. Fortress Investment Group (FIG) had gone first, making its founders billionaires on paper. Blackstone represented the crescendo — confirming Schwarzman a sort of diabolical genius.
Given that private equity’s game is to fix up assets and then hand them off at peak valuation (or as close to that as possible), you had to give Schwarzman a golf clap. The hype, the mania, the buildup, the final coup of selling at the most breathless moment — it was perfect.
BX, the Blackstone ticker, debuted on the NYSE in the rough vicinity of $35 per share.
It pretty much went straight to five bucks after that.
So why bring up these stories? Because that old “bell ringing” feeling is in the air again (click to enlarge)…
You know those tired jokes about how Hummer and Ferrari drivers are “compensating for something?” One could say the same (on a national scale) when it comes to tall buildings. The desire to show off the world’s tallest building is a sort of reliable ‘tell” for excesses of hubris and economic leverage.
The von Mises institute has an article describing this phenomenon, Skyscrapers and Business Cycles. Bottom line being, the skyscraper indicator has “a good record in predicting important downturns in the economy.”
As the above graphic shows, for some time the world’s tallest building has been the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, opened in January 2010.
So getting back to the bell ringing, I give you “China plans $1.3 bn seven star hotel:”
Beijing authorities plan to build a “seven-star hotel” modelled after Dubai’s Burj Khalifa — the world’s tallest building — in a $1.3 billion joint project with Saudi Arabia.
The hotel will be erected in western Beijing’s Mentougou district some 30 kilometres (18 miles) from the Chinese capital’s centre, the state-run Beijing Morning Post said in a Thursday report, quoting a local parliamentary meeting…
Classic isn’t it?
Noted bear Jim Chanos has said that China is “Dubai times a thousand.”
China’s planners seem to have taken that statement as a compliment — or even a pledge to live up to — as opposed to a dire warning.
The air is rich and thick with irony… and hubris-fueled stupidity. Considering that China is in the grips of a white hot real estate mania, you’d think the last thing they want to do is invite comparisons to a major league fiasco that wound up like this (Time Magazine, Oct 2010):
There’s a half-off sale in the world’s tallest building.
Even with an address at the iconic Burj Khalifa, rents for residences in the tower are not immune from Dubai’s real estate crash. Indeed, nearly a year after it was inaugurated with a massive water-and-fireworks display, about 825 of the tower’s 900 ultra-luxury apartments remain unoccupied, according to Better Homes, a real estate brokerage in Dubai…
Geniuses… or Idiots?
And by the way, this topic brings up a little bone I have to pick with the China bulls.
As of this writing, bullish views on China are extensive and widespread. Underscoring much of this bullishness is the implied belief that Chinese planners are “smart” while the American government is “stupid.”
Beijing, and China at large, is supposedly being run by savvy geniuses who will successfully manage away all problems (like rampant inflation) and not put a serious foot wrong.
After all, while American politicians play “checkers,” China is populated by serious long-term thinkers playing the subtly complex strategic game of “Go.”
Uh-huh. Yeah.
I ask you, how incredibly out of synch with history is this conveniently bullish viewpoint? Over the centuries, the millennia even, the track record is clear: Governments are cack-handed and dumb. If they do not start out dumb, they wind up dumb. Hubris, overreach, and the great weight of managing complexity overtakes them.
The old saying, “shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations,” could well apply to economic booms in modified form. Even the founding fathers of the United States made plenty of gargantuan economic mistakes.
What’s more, the “China won’t falter” narrative is all the more impossible given that the historical track record of major power success is one of experiencing crisis, dealing with crisis, and eventually overcoming crisis — not sidestepping it completely through slick management!
And yet now we are supposed to believe the Chinese government is different? That these guys — a bunch of dusted-off communists no less — have cracked the code?
“Not bloody likely,” as a subject of the defunct British empire might say.
Just for fun, let’s go with the hypothesis that maybe China’s leaders are not geniuses but idiots… run-of-the-mill knucklehead types as with other heads of state. What evidence might we have for this assertion? How about the following:
China has bet its future on an aggressively mercantilist and, in the eyes of some, massively protectionist growth strategy that could wind up blowing up in its face (via Western backlash) at precisely the wrong time.
China has “bet the farm” on its ability to avoid devastating breakouts of strife and civil unrest, born as direct result of a mercantilist strategy that holds back purchasing power, holds down wages, and pumps up internal inflation pressures (in a country where food and energy costs still represent the lion’s share of domestic income).
In its effort to hoover up large volumes of business, China has forced major portions of its export sector to live or die on razor-thin profit margins, leaving these businesses exceptionally vulnerable to new threats of economic downturn, modest currency revaluation, or state-subsidized financing withdrawal.
China has presented itself as the savvy accumulator of huge amounts of U.S. debt, potentially without realizing it is the “fish” at the poker table. (If I sell you a mountain of worthless paper and convince you it is worth something, who exactly is the sucker here?)
In embracing runaway stimulus and out-of-control money pumping, China has embraced the failed policies of Alan Greenspan, even after observing what the Greenspan mentality hath wrought.
In dragging its feet on reining in a real estate mania, China is willingly setting itself up for a “Dubai times a thousand” scenario, even after observing what such in the United States, Dubai and elsewhere hath wrought.
Nor have we mentioned the many and varied “unsustainable” environmental, social and logistical trends born of an overly rigid, centrally dominated economy that may well be built on an infrastructure ponzi scheme…
We’ll see how things play out of course. And one would be wise to heed the great Stan Druckenmiller’s advice, re, “never use valuation to time a market.” (That’s what price action is for.)
But I humbly submit before the market court of opinion that China’s leaders are most likely dumb, not smart — not necessarily excessively so, but in the same manner and fashion that all other governments have proven themselves dumb over time.
And with their new “let’s be like Dubai” intentions, they are working hard to confirm it…
Disclosure: As active traders, authors may have positions long or short in any securities mentioned. Full disclaimer can be found here.
The annual International Ice and Snow Festival in China
How cool! Snow & ice turned into 500 lb. Sphinx head, scale replica of the Great Wall
China morphs itself into a winter wonderland for its annual Harbin International Ice and Snow Festival.
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/index.html#ixzz1AXPiSqW1
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/music/galleries/the_annual_ice_and_snow_festival_in_harbin_chica/the_annual_ice_and_snow_festival_in_harbin_chica.html#ixzz1AXPVljP0
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/music/galleries/the_annual_ice_and_snow_festival_in_harbin_chica/the_annual_ice_and_snow_festival_in_harbin_chica.html
Where would NEP HRBN and CHBT fit in the risk spectrum ? All have gone through some type of accounting review. Would that make them less likely to be in for a 2011 surprise?
I was referring to all China stocks and companies like Bidu are tier A . I also consider CCME tier A but it will take time for the company to be perceived and valued like Bidu . I think the real money to be made will be in finding tier A companies before the market sees it . CCME will be a classic example. In 2 years we might look back at 18$ like it was a joke .It just baffles me that we can only identify one true tier A company in the CGS group.The real money will be in finding these guys . A lot of argument can b made that we already know some of these companies. YONG ? UTA ? GU ?
In regards to the recent shelf offerings with companies who already have have plenty of cash unfortunately we could see more of this in the next month. In 90% of the cases i am guessing it wont be fraud.When most of these companies decided to list here i think they initially thought they would get low valuations but in short order they would get a much higher P/E like the Bidu s and Sina s . Not only has that not happened but they have been literally taken out to the woodshed and shot . Many of these stocks are 50 % off their Sept lows and i think they think this could be a long and protracted battle . Either they delist or they raise a war chest cushion . Some of these companies may fear another sell off and fear going back to the Sept valuations . Some of these companies may have plans for an acquisition and now up 50% off the bottom they decide to raise cash .They may actually may fear the Feds Qe2 policy and think we may go down this year . Also some see the Washington's anti US listed China stocks climate as a dangerous signal. There are a lot of variables at work here . I do not believe more than 15 % are actual frauds and its probably much less . The bigger gray area are the poorly run companies . Think of this space as a circle. The inner most circle are companies like Bidu and include CCME in there even though most investors have yet to discover her . Then comes the other tier B companies that have gone through a rigorousness audit and are well run. Some of the tier B companies activities will make them overlap their circle to tier A or tier C. Then comes the tier C companies . Real businesses that listed in this fashion because they lack what it takes to be taken seriously by big money . Some of these companies will move into tier B or will fall into tier D because they are poorly run even though they are real companies. Then you have tier D companies . Failing companies that have tagged along to cash in. I think we as a board know who the tier A companies are . Our job is to find out who are the tier B companies soon to be A or C and on down the line.
One happy hour poster on YMB says this is to do an acquisition that will actually be positive for ZSTN
Funny after the web release the stock actually hit 17.50 and has a bid of 17.52/17.72 . I think it hits 20 next week
Rato He is singing your song
I expect a big selloff in the US market in the next month or two myself but a dramatic dollar fall will cushion China stocks imo
Be Prepared to Buy Into Potential Dollar Decline
http://seekingalpha.com/article/245425-be-prepared-to-buy-into-potential-dollar-decline
There has been an obvious build-up of expectations about the U.S. jobs report today. The dramatic jump in the ADP estimate sparked a large upward revision in expectations, even though the shortcomings of its estimate and its track record are well known. In part, the optimism also reflects the recent string of data that has convinced even many of the cynics that the U.S. economy has accelerated. Given the price action and the pendulum of market expectations, the risk today is for disappointment.
The disappointment could lie in the difficulty to live up to some of the inflated expectations, which included talk of a 500,000 rise. With the U.S. economy gaining traction, many observers have simply ignored the fact that the employment component of both the manufacturing and service sector ISM reports weakened. The risk is of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of trading today.
Yet in the larger picture, to be clear, investors ought to see that potential pullback in the dollar as a new buying opportunity and/or opportunity to adjust exposures. The combination of growth differentials, mediated through interest rate differentials and relative returns, and Europe's debt woes will help fuel further dollar appreciation.
By some market-based measures, the European crisis is worse than it was in the May 2010. The immediate focus in Europe is three-fold. First, there are some reports suggesting that a Spanish caja may need to borrow from the government's aid fund (FROB). Private estimates suggest Spanish banks have another €80 bln of bad debt to recognize. On top of the federal and regional government borrowing, and bank borrowing, the FROB is expected to issue around €5 bln of bonds soon.
Second is the sovereign supply next week from Portugal and Italy. The market does not seem to have much appetite for peripheral issuance. Portugal's 10-year bond yield has risen 54 basis points this week. Italian 10-year yields, on the other hand, have slipped 2 bp. The 7 bp that the Spanish 10-year bond has risen this week have been registered today.
Third, there is a cloud of uncertainty over the status of creditors in Europe. German chancellor Angela Merkel was forced to back down from her ill-fated attempt last year to get the private sector to participate in bail-outs (i.e., haircuts) to a compromise position of "only after 2013."
But the proverbial cat is out of the bag. The moral hazard whereby creditors are guaranteed by taxpayers' money is coming to an end. Yesterday the EU proposed that bank regulators be granted powers to write down debt in future crisis. There had been some reports (that we cited earlier this week) that Greece was lobbying banks to extend maturities on Greek obligations in line with the extension that is likely from the IMF and EU. Subsequently the reports have been denied, but many (if not most) observers look for Greek debt to be restructured at some point.
Some investors may be surprised how little the market has really paid attention to press reports playing up Chinese purchases of peripheral European debt. Previously it was the vice-premier, who is tipped to be the next premier in 2012, and today it was the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) who appeared to have made supportive comments.
So what? The market is bigger than China. China is (maybe) a price setter when it comes to iron ore, but not for such bonds as Portugal's or Spain's or Greece's. If Bank A wants to sell its peripheral bond and the PBOC buys it, what difference does it make to that peripheral country or other holders of that same paper?
Altering the holders of the debt also is not the same thing as addressing the unsustainable debt dynamics.
The amount of money being bandied about -- around €10 bln -- is chump change for the PBOC, which saw its reserves jump $200 bln in Q3 10 alone.
The disconnect that it points to, though, is the comments in the recent past about the risks China faced in holding U.S. Treasuries. Are we to believe that those same officials really believe that peripheral European bonds are less risk?
Disclosure: No positions
My Top 3 China Picks for 2011 and Beyond
( He has a nice following )
By David Sterman
A growing chorus of investors has started to talk of a China bubble. These folks think the Chinese government will be unable to glide the economy onto a slower plane of growth without unexpected stumbles. And they expect Chinese stocks to move sharply lower if this rising giant loses its economic footing. Yet many others remain quite bullish, anticipating continued sustained growth for the hottest economy thus far in the 21st century. Who's right? Who knows?
Since it's hard to know how events will play out in 2011 in China, it's important to stay invested in this dynamic economy, but perhaps with a more defensive posture. Here are three companies that should flourish in 2011, regardless of how the broader Chinese economy -- and stocks -- fare in 2011.
Tri-Tech Holding (TRIT)
China's got a problem: Its waterways are very polluted and many municipalities appear ill-equipped to assure citizens that their tap water is safe to drink. To clean up water supplies, they're increasingly turning to Tri-Tech for large scale remediation efforts. Tri-Tech offers a one-stop shop of hardware, software and services to clean and monitor water systems. It's not just a government business: Many large companies in China are being tasked to clean up their act, though they lack the skills to do so themselves.
Though the company only cracked the $10 million revenue mark in 2009, sales are now skyrocketing: They'll likely exceeded $40 million in 2010 and could hit $75 million in 2011. On Wednesday morning, management provided a comprehensive update regarding the many projects it is involved with, and also laid out a case for much higher levels of business activity.
That sent shares surging higher, past the $13 mark, but I see a move toward $20 during the course of this year. Why so bullish? Because this is a very profitable business and shares are quite cheap on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. Per-share profits likely approached $1 in 2010, but could exceed $1.50 in 2011. The company's growing backlog implies that sales and profits will keep growing at a rapid clip in subsequent years as well. Even if shares trade for just 13 times projected 2011 profits, then the stock would move up to that $20 target.
China MediaExpress (CCME)
Everywhere you turn in China, you see advertisements. Various firms have carved out niches in various forms of ads. China MediaExpress is one of the leading providers of ads on buses. More than 25,000 buses operate around the country carrying ads placed by CCME on behalf of its clients. The company is now branching out into many second-tier cities, so that figure could surpass 35,000 in a few years.
Yet China MediaExpress found itself with an unusual problem. The company had built an impressive roster of clients (70% ad agencies, 30% direct advertisers), but the bus market has obvious limits. So the company has decided to take its considerable cash flow from that business and re-invest in a broader advertising platform. The goal: To steer the hundreds of thousands of passengers that ride its buses every day to a company-operated web portal. China MediaExpress' clients can run ads on its site (along with a soon-to-be-launched magazine) and customers can place orders in response to those ads.
China MediaExpress isn't aiming to become the next Amazon.com (AMZN). Instead, it simply wants to get a healthy sales commission for every order placed, and let clients actually worry about order fulfillment. Although the company will need to spend money to build out the site in 2011, possibly creating a drag on profits, it should enable sales and profits to move nicely higher in 2012 and beyond.
Even before that foray, this is a cheap stock: Shares trade for just seven times likely 2010 profits. That multiple moves closer to five when you back out the company's hefty $170 million cash balance. Shares, which currently trade for about $17, could move up into the mid $20s or higher if the company's Internet initiatives start to pay off. Judging by the existing bus business alone, shares seem to be worth at least $20. Depending on how things play out, this stock has moderate-to-significant upside.
Deer Consumer Products (DEER)
I've written about this company several times before, and I'll keep doing so while it remains sharply undervalued. Deer makes kitchen appliances for global firms such as Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) and sells into the Chinese market under its own name. In the past year, management has delivered the goods by serially raising sales and profit forecasts, buying back stock and inking new customer relationships. Sales, which grew an explosive 85% in 2009, likely more than doubled in 2010. A new plant to be opened in Eastern China in 2011 should propel growth higher.
Management predicts sales growth of at least 30% in 2011, and profits should grow even faster than that. Meanwhile, shares trade for just 10 times next year's projected profits. While they remain so cheap, management is using the company's prodigious cash flow to buy back stock. This stock remained out of the spotlight in 2010, but it's becoming too large to ignore, with annual sales pushing past the $200 million mark. As it finally moves onto more investors' radars in 2011, I see an upward move from a current $11 into the mid- to upper-teens.
2011 may or may not be a great year for the Chinese economy and stock market. But these companies are building powerful long-term business models, and the far-sighted investor is likely to profit from these stable, cash-rich plays.
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
Rames
You already have a scorecard system that could be a building block or basis for what is being discussed here ? I would think that could be tweaked with some of the criteria you listed on this post.
What kills me in a country so large with so many growing companies why is it we only get one top tier company that listed here like CCME.
There is CCME a small 2nd tier group behind them and then a bunch of loose paper. We really need a few more CCME types .