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Yes, I'm more inclined to think its the institutions with some shorts mixed in. It is very likely that smart money took profit selling the shares to retail in the 20s and high teens and they were probably the first ones to get shaken out as we went lower each day and the smart money bought those shares back. We had some massive volume days before and after earnings so its only normal we still have high volume but I think its starting to wind down overall.
Personally, I think we reached our bottom in the high 15s, low 16s when we saw what happened a couple days ago. The shorts, combined with panicked sellers tried bringing us down and the institutions stepped up, probably protecting their own positions. That signalled it was time to buy back in and created a mini short squeeze.
With the China rate hike out of the way for now, and no bad news pending, I think we go higher from here. Fingers crossed for IBD 100.
I disagree about less of the float being locked up. Perhaps some institutions sold but I'm sure even more are/have been accumulating.
These shake outs are just what this stock needs, and I would expect nothing less from the smart money trying to grab as many shares as they can.
Yeah I don't know if it was the trading software but I'm still leaning to the MM jacking the price on me. I didn't end up getting any more unfortunately so I'll make due with what I have.
I would think investors would make an exception for one of the most undervalued companies in the growing China advertising industry:)
Making the list should have a very positive long term effect imo, not to mention a nice short term boost once people start grabbing anything under $20 bewildered by how undervalued CCME is.
A few mentioned we didn't make it based on technicals last week but if we can stay in the 18s and even better get to $19, we could make it this week.
From a technical perspective the stock is looking a lot better, anyone think we can make the IBD 100 this week?
At this point it all depends on the general sentiment of the market, hopefully we can have a few stable days and either base here for a while and build support or recover a bit. But its starting to look like the same story as before for the China space, we only go up if both the S&P and SSE go up, either one struggles and we struggle with no news.
My mistake I meant the ask, I tried buying calls @.50 and the bid and ask both showed .50 for a couple minutes, then the ask jumped to .55 and then to .60 meanwhile the sp barely moved, so I didn't get to buy any calls.
I'll try again tmrw.
Damn MM raised the bid on me, total bs.
Anybody having problems buying the Jan 7.50 calls? I keep hitting the bid but the orders not going through.
I understand a lot of you are disappointed at the recent price action and disappointed that management didn't announce a dividend and didn't use the money for the share buyback, but for future reference, when everything is going great and a stock you hold has had a great run consider buying puts to hedge your position or at least sell some shares.
When CCME released earnings the $20 puts could have been bought for $1 more or less. It is only natural that we would have some profit taking, how much I didn't know and since I didn't want to miss on any upside by selling I decided to hedge my position.
Depending on what happens this week I might excercise my puts and take a wait and see approach. I've learned not to underestimate panic. But with that said if we can hold the 16s on a bad day like today, with a couple of good up days we can be right back to the 18s or 19s.
Your preaching to the choir here:p I hedged with some puts so this downturn is a bit easier for me to take. In a way I wouldn't mind visiting $15 again for a couple days so I could buy a few more but I'm not worried in the slightest and not basing any decision on a future catalyst. Only thing I'm counting on is continued earnings growth, everything else is just a bonus.
I don't disagree with you, I'm just repeating what Jacky said even if it doesn't make sense.
As Jacky stated in the CC they are looking to 2011 to work a dividend into the budget so I don't think we can really count on an announcement coming. Our best chance is to have some more coverage from one of the big guys like GS or MS, I don't think we'll be making IBD 100 this week either. Time to tough it out again.
tenenbaum - yes looks like I misread the 13F for GS, half that was with puts. They probably had their long position hedged with the puts but I'm pretty sure they didn't end up using them with the run CCME had after Sept.
Still 4.5mil shares with the smart money along with another 2-3 mil with strong retail and most likely both numbers growing each day. Makes you think how the shorts will cover when the float keeps getting smaller.
Agreed its well past that number by now, if you look at the number for MS and GS for instance they increased their positions substaintially since the last update. The numbers don't even include any updates from Sept 30th to Oct 31st.
I'm wondering how often does nasdaq update the site?
I'm only holding some options, my intent was to load up with the delay, but I have bad memories of Friday after hours releases, GLTA.
Didn't catch that one, that would bring us to 3,198,604 shares just under where we were last report and still more to come.
I think I might just sit this one out and see how it goes.
Latest institutional numbers up to 3,198,604 only including those which reported from Nov 1st, still lots more to come.
Filed Today-
650000 Ardsley Advisory Partners(Thx Millstone)
112574 MORGAN STANLEY
10600 SAC Capital Advisors LP
25040 SUNRISE PARTNERS LLC CT
51446 BARCLAYS PLC
35504 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N A
7200 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC
512622 GS
118000 Millennium Management LLC
591493 D E Shaw Co INC
29,244 TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS LLC
113729 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC
5200 Black River Asset Management
192114 OPPENHEIMER FUNDS INC
62658 Invesco Ltd
22000 UBS AG
GS holds 512,622 shares. I'm going to assume we get coverage from them sooner rather than later. Total share count since Nov 1st is 1,696,138.
The shorts don't have any valid arguments to begin with.
Otherwise they wil get more and more dicredited with the fact that they haven't bought any which will make the short arguments stronger.
I'm not really bothered that the company didn't buy any shares and the think its in fact better that the buying pressure came from intitutions and retail. On a side note more 13-F's filed.
112574 MORGAN STANLEY
10600 SAC Capital Advisors LP
25040 SUNRISE PARTNERS LLC CT
51446 BARCLAYS PLC
35504 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N A
7200 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC
Total since Nov 1st - 1,183,516
Institutions certainly see the value. As of Nov 1st here is a list of institutions which are still holding or new ones which have opened positions. Over 900,000 shares so far and bound to be a lot more as holdings are reported.
11/02
12000 PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC
11/03
190346 OXFORD ASSET MANAGEMENT
11/04
226426 VANGUARD GROUP INC
11/05
21500 CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM
29900 UNIONBANCAL CORP
11/09
16000 CREDIT SUISSE AG
11/12
20300 PEAK6 Investments L P
34900 RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC
51600 BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE SA
700 CREDIT AGRICOLE S A
3608 BANK OF AMERICA CORP DE
51900 Susquehanna International Group LLP
11/15
5200 Black River Asset Management
192114 OPPENHEIMER FUNDS INC
62658 Invesco Ltd
22000 UBS AG
The problem the shorts have now is that everytime they bring it down they have to compete with fresh money and institutions wanting cheap shares, as soon as they run out of ammo it starts to climb again. They are hoping market sentiment takes a turn to the worst but thats always a 50/50 chance.
I'm still waiting for some new analysts to digest the recent numbers and start covering CCME, the more the merrier.
If they file for a delay before tomorrow and issue a press release then even that is progress and will give them a little more credibility in my book. But my guts telling me we might just see the day come and go and not hear a word from them. Hopefully, thats not the case but its one of the reasons why NEP is still below $8 and hasn't run like other companies.
I like the stock and bought some options on Friday just in case they smartened up, but I still have doubts about managements capability to meet deadlines or if they even take it seriously enough. I'm hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
So we finally get the short article most have been dreading since August and to me it sounds almost like an endorsement. Basically there is nothing wrong with CCME itself...
'So I am just going to conclude that the people who run Chinese bus companies are stupid. Really stupid. Or really corrupt.'
lol, let the accumulation begin.
Looks like we may get a great gift to accumulate NEP and options on the cheap this week. I may still be wrong, but it looks like NEP hasn't learned.
You forgot the best one TSTC - huge qtr, I sold all premarket after seeing what happened to CCME once the market opened last week. I'm learning to lock in gains and not be afraid of losing some upside.
Looks like we didn't make it this week. A bit of a let down but not much else we can do I suppose.
Top 10 from last week -
JKS Jinkosolar Hldg Co Ads 1
FFIV F 5 Networks Inc 2
ARUN Aruba Networks Inc 3
BIDU Baidu Inc Ads 4
IGTE Igate Corp 5
PCLN Priceline.Com Inc 6
NFLX Netflix Inc 7
RVBD Riverbed Technology Inc 8
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill 9
SLW Silver Wheaton Corp 10
Top 10 this week -
JKS Jinkosolar Hldg Co Ads 1
FFIV F 5 Networks Inc 2
IGTE Igate Corp 3
ARUN Aruba Networks Inc 4
BIDU Baidu Inc Ads 5
PCLN Priceline.Com Inc 6
NFLX Netflix Inc 7
RVBD Riverbed Technology Inc 8
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill 9
VIT Vanceinfo Tech Inc Ads 10
Yeah I was worried as well and sold everything on Wednesday. I have a gut feeling they still don't care. If they announce a date I'll buy back in a flash. Until then, I can't give them the benefit of the doubt.
Nice catch Viking, lets see how this plays out.
No one can know for sure what the impact will be but it will certainly give us much more exposure and bring in stronger hands which will be great for the long term. In terms of price just look at what happened to BORN. When it was added it had a good little run until shorts attacked it and people started questioning the fundamentals. So who knows what the market will do.
I think if we are added today, over the weekend there will be more than a few people finding out just how good the fundamentals of CCME are and they will see just how undervalued the stock is at current levels.
Bought 10 Nov $18 calls @ $1.60 - I'm still of the opinion that making the IBD 100 will be what gives us a nice floor in the 20s and maybe start our next leg up. We'll see what happens...
Great buying opportunity all around today, I don't think we drop too much but it all depends how many people get scared at once.
CGA - Looking quite strong so far, and they had a great earnings report compared to CAGC. On the conference call they mentioned they will be hiring a big 4 auditor which should go some ways to restoring confidence.
Less than 10 PE compared to to 20+ for YONG and CAGC. It seems like its ignored on the CGS board but so far almost all the stocks that have had short attacks against them have come back strong.
Funny how fast the sentiment of the board has changed today.
Didn't you guys learn anything from the last time? Granted, maybe some of you weren't here before but the trick is to hold on tight to your shares if your here long term and not let these big swings discourage you from the DD you did.
If I had to guess where all the panic selling is coming from, I'd say its a mixture of new holders who bought above $20, traders trying to play the IBD list, shorts who think they can push us under $15 so we don't make the list and maybe instituions trying to get in at better prices.
My suggestion to anyone who has concerns over todays drop is to look over the DD you did and have some patience. Or sell your shares to someone with more stomach:)
Picked up $22.50 Nov calls @.28 avg to add a bit more exposure for the IBD listing.
After holding at below $8 a share this small pullback is peanuts, lol.
CGA - Bought 10 Dec $10 calls @.40 Decent risk/reward we'll see what happens after the bell today.
AVNR - Sold my Nov $4 calls for .95 Modest profit but profit none the less.
Anyone else still holding the calls?
Yeah today we get a nice healthy pullback with the benefit of shaking the weak hands who seemed to have forgot that this weekend we get our next catalyst when we will most likely be put on the IBD 100.
We are also setting up a nice base in the $20 range which will do us well for a further move forward. I'll actually be somewhat surprised if we're below $23 on Friday.
Key word being IF they file on time. I'm also a bit wary but we'll see...the week is still early.