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BGFV - now re-tracing down after the 15% spike this a.m.; dang, i had a bid to sell all 4k shares at 13.95 which would have all sold; instead i changed it to sell 1600 shares at 13.96, which sold. Wish i'd kept my original sell order. If this drops to mid 12s i'll likely re-buy those 1600 shares.
I totally agree with you, Gilead, that endless or even just "excessive" lockdowns don't work.
Timing (for the slate of feasible measures) is so all-important, and this country and countries like Mexico and Brazil, failed miserably in acting early and efficiently.
Some countries or locales, like Melbourne, succeeded later in 2020 in essentially stopping COVID, but it took tremendous efforts in social cohesion and sound, scientific-political leadership.
But most peer-reviewed studies of the successful lockdowns have shown otherwise.
I would add that it's not just lockdowns-- things like testing, contact tracing, quarantine-support, and of course mask-usage are also crucially important.
In any case, here's just one article i read some weeks ago (now in updated form) which indicates what has worked and what has NOT, in various countries worldwide. It's succinct and easily read (much more indepth country-by-country reports are also available):
https://www.MoveHub.com/blog/best-and-worst-covid-responses/
The Countries Who've Handled Coronavirus the Best – and Worst
Australia / Covid - go find the reports on how Melbourne became the first Aussie urban/suburban area to stop the Covid spread by finally pulling together communally to adopt the type of significant lockdown / sheltering-in-place measures.
https://www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victoria-australia-covid-19-cases-lockdown
After successfully doing that, they were able to safely re-open their economy, schools, nightlife, etc.
We could do the same here-- but there are swaths of science-denying idiots
who've been "radicalized" to resist any safety measures as "infringement on my personal freedom."
And so the hospitalizations and deaths continue to mount.
bb, the Covid spread is primarily via SHARED STAGNANT AIR SPACES, so temperature is not the factor per se, except insofar as people are sharing indoor spaces more in colder weather....
>It is obvious the virus does not like warm weather OR there are far fewer cases in warm weather because people are indoors much less.
APT - 13.05 -- surprised to see it sell off so far down this a.m.; there was no obvious resistance up in 14.60s; some profit taking might have been expected given the funk that the stock has been in for past several months.
Now it's down even below its 9dma at 13.12; next obvious support is 13 and then the rising 26dma at 12.72. I might be a buyer if it went there.
Next support level would look to be the now (finally) rising 50dma at 12.37 but i don't think APT will drop that far. Jmo....
APT - ok, it's retraced down to its upper Bollinger band now (which is at 13.71), maybe it bounces back up off this or else stays around it and perhaps rides it up over next few days (it's strongly rising)
APT - bb, i see that APT in pre-mkt is trading up higher in 14.60s, so continuing strength. For upper resistance, there's the obvious "psychological" level at round number $15.
Beyond that, it looks like, going back to Oct., there was difficulty in the stock staying above the 15.50 level or so. So that's a crucial resistance area.
APT - yes, this looks like a great breakout on the daily chart, well above its upper Bollinger band and upper cloud band in Ichimoku Cloud T.A. The RSI is not overbought at 65.8, the MACD is surging back into positive territory, the Accum/Distrib is very strong on Accumulate, the 26dma has surged above the 50dma for first time in several months....
Several days ago APT broke above its falling 50dma and then tested it as support a couple of times before this big upspike.
Alas, i didn't put any money into another swing trade on APT when it dipped back down into mid $11s some days ago..... Obviously i wish i had.
Congrats to everyone who profited off this recent move.
With the new Biden admin policies APT may continue to see some robust stock-buying.
Well, there have been two kinds of stocks during this period (and others):
1) some stocks (especially those low-float magnets for momo mania) have been "runners" that have taken off with little up-down volatility after maybe some initial churning;
2) other stocks (like BGFV an LMB for me) have been great "swing trading vehicles," where it pays to be patient for entry points and then pay attention to exit points because of what appears to be a trading range with upper resistance levels and lower support levels (and those lower levels can involve a few lower levels).
So it depends on the kind of stock.
And, ahead of time, it's hard to find out which kind of stock a given ticker will be....
Great trade! I missed that one by about one dime on my bid down in low $11s and then "didn't want to chase it." Famous last words for many of us....
BGFV - $11.80s - having a nice rebound move today, hopefully the first of several green days over the next week of trading.
It did just what i thought it would, a support test of the flat 26dma (10.85), including a brief dip below it, and then a move back up.
Over at Investing.com, one can scroll down and see that the technical summary flipped from almost all red yesterday to nearly all green today.
That and the fact that this hit a new multi-yr high at $13.95 just a week ago, bodes well...
LMB - i sold out the other day for about my 6th profitable swing trade, this time from 12.20 to 14.22, so i missed the extra burst up to 15.20, but am very happy with profits made thus far.
Instead of keeping a core position and just swing trading a small portion, i just kept swing trading all my shares since first buying at around $9.10.
Thus far i've gained well over $9 in share-price value, i.e., as if i'd had a core position and sold it at over $18.
I'm beginning to think that the expected coming re-fi news is getting baked into the s/price. I could be wrong, i just hope for any longer term holders that when the re-fi news hits there's isn't a "sell the news" event like we've seen hit a number of stocks.
If it did sell off, i'd be a buyer.
I think the co. has a great future.
BGFV - looks to be doing a support test all the way down to its flat 26dma at 10.85. I wouldn't be surprised if it briefly dips below that. I thought Friday's test of the rising 20dma above $11 was sufficient for the recent dip but BGFV's trading moves always surprise me to the downside, so often testing one further support level down before reversing to the upside.
Hopefully it will be back up from here on the really excellent preliminary ER last week.
I was buying more in 10.90s....
FRX - i also got a starter position at 10.42 and am hoping to get some maybe at or below 10.30 in days ahead, especially if we get more of a mkt pullback.
Btw, i'm not 100% certain FRX will get Triller. I heard some scuttlebutt on a message board that Triller has winnowed down the possible SPAC buyers to two parties.
And even if the upgraded platform now has a bunch of glitches compared to a former version, i think with any big infusion of cash in a merger they could have access to a LOT of talent that could eliminate the bugs.
Jmo.....
FRX - i think i've solved the mystery of the acquisition target for this SPAC..... (drumroll.........)
TRILLER-- the big competitor with TikTok.
(See https://filmora.wondershare.com/tiktok/triller-vs-tiktok.html for excellent article on comparisons between the two cos.)
Triller (media and entertainment industry) announced that they want to go public via SPAC and raise $250 million, and then a few days later you get FRX, which is looking to take a media and entertainment company public with a blank check value of... $250 million.
Triller is a music-video creating app that's huge with rappers, rockers, world-music folks, dancers and social influencers. A safer, homegrown USA alternative to TikTok. And would be a perfect match for FRX since ex-Disney exec Keven Mayer (now Chief Strategy advisor for FRX) was FORMER CEO OF TIKTOK.
Shaq O'Neal and MLK III's involvement with FRX further makes clear the perfect "demographic" fit between FRX and Triller.
So if this pans out, it could be enormous.
One BIG PROBLEM THOUGH: if one scrolls through the comments section at Google Play store, THERE ARE LARGE PERCENTAGES OF TRILLER USERS WHO NO LONGER LIKE THE APP The recent upgrades evidently have created loads of glitches.....
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=co.triller.droid&hl=en_US&gl=US&showAllReviews=true
For anyone who buys into the lie that COVID deaths are being "over-reported," this in-depth WSJ article will correct that dis-information:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-19-death-toll-is-even-worse-than-it-looks-11610636840?mod=e2tw
The Covid-19 Death Toll Is Even Worse Than It Looks
World-wide deaths are running far beyond what would have been expected without the pandemic
By Paul Overberg, Jon Kamp, and Daniel Michaels
Thur Jan. 14, 2021
The recorded death count from the Covid-19 pandemic as of Thursday is nearing 2 million. The true extent is far worse.
More than 2.8 million people have lost their lives due to the pandemic, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from 59 countries and jurisdictions. This tally offers the most comprehensive view yet of the pandemic’s global impact. Deaths in these places last year surged more than 12% above average levels.
[See rest of article...]
From Mitch Zacks, minus two charts i can't replicate here. Note his significant sentence below: "there is a significant difference between today and the late 1990’s: interest rates."
What Will the New Bull Market Look Like?
2020 was a year beset by a public health crisis, civil unrest, political dysfunction, and uncertainty across just about every facet of life. Yet the S&P 500 still posted a stout +18.4% return for the year, following a powerful +31.5% surge in 2019.1 Never mind the fact that there was a global pandemic, more political uncertainty than usual, and a steep and scary bear market all wedged in between.
The S&P 500 Priced-In the Downturn – and the Odds of a Powerful Recovery – In Record Time
[Chart deleted of the index's performance over 2019-2021]
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis2
Long-time equity investors recognize this pattern, whereby the stock market seems to defy all expectations and looks totally disconnected from reality. Some onlookers may think something is wrong, or out of whack. But history tells us this type of ‘disconnect’ happens all the time. The stock market has no emotional connection to what is happening in the moment – it is always looking ahead to what’s next, in my view. In 2021, it sees accelerating earnings, solid GDP growth, and a wall of liquidity.
So, what will the bull market look like in 2021? I’ve been thinking about the post-World War II bull market, the “v-shaped” recovery off the financial crisis bottom of 2009, and the late-cycle risk binge we saw in 1999.
The World War II comparison is interesting. In that time, the nation was of course gripped by uncertainty, division, and broad worry about the future. The government also ran record deficits in order to finance the war, with the Fed and Treasury setting government bond yields to establish an upward sloping yield curve.
Record Debt as a Percentage of GDP: WWII and Today
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis4
The stock market struggled in the early months of entering the war, but after a 1942 military success in the Pacific, the “v-shaped” bounce took hold – even as the bulk of the war and all the casualties it caused were yet to occur. I see quite a few similarities to 2020, and can imagine investors being perplexed in 1942 at how the market could rise during such a devastating time.
The early-cycle recovery in 2010 also bears some resemblance to what we’ve seen late in 2020 and early 2021 – a capital rotation into small, value, and cyclical categories. Interestingly, the bounce off the bottom in 2020 favored mainly high growth, high valuation Technology and Consumer Discretionary categories, which is where I see some resemblance to 1999.
The ‘risk binge’ we saw tied to the dot com craze in 1999 pushed a lot of investors very far out onto the risk curve, paying exorbitant premiums for the possibility of supercharged future cash flows. Most of those cash flows never arrived. Technology companies are different today, in my view – the earnings growth is there. But that does not mean investors are paying fair prices. I think 2020 delivered an ultra-compressed cycle in Technology, where years of future profits were priced-into stocks in a matter of months. To the extent inflation later in the year pushes longer-term interest rates higher, I also think we could see a reality check for the Technology sector.
Bottom Line for Investors
The stock market is fully valued, trading near 23x forward earnings. The peak in 2000 saw a P/E of 26x. Many investors may wonder how much more upside is possible, just one year into the bull market.
But there is a significant difference between today and the late 1990’s: interest rates. I have written before that as long as investors expect interest rates to remain low, they will likely be more willing to pay higher premiums to own equities. In 2021, I think investors will favor equities with more attractive valuations, and will look for companies with the ability to accelerate earnings (i.e., companies with low 2020 comparisons). Finally, to the extent that inflation later in the year could push longer-term interest rates higher, I think we could see some selling pressure in high valuation categories, like Tech. More on that in a future column.
Instead of trying to guess how much upside is possible and try to time the market, I recommend staying focused on what matters - key data points and economic indicators that could impact your investments. To help you do this, I am offering all readers our Just-Released February 2021 Stock Market Outlook Report.
This report looks at several factors that are producing optimism right now and contains some of our key forecasts to consider such as:
Economic expectations for 2021
2021 capital markets expectations
A look at Covid-19 and vaccine distribution
What produces 2021 optimism?
What of U.S. GDP growth?
A look at U.S. continuing claims for unemployment and Covid job data
Zacks Rank S&P 500 Sector Picks
And much more
For several years i've thought and shared that there's SO MUCH BIG MONEY with gigantic reserves on the sidelines for swooping in to buy corrections and dips that it's almost a "foolproof" market it seems.... Especially with the low interest rates.
And now we have not only the billionaires and centi- and deca-millionaires to keep buying the stockmarket,
--but also all these new millionaires of the Robinhood camp of traders.
QS - bought a tranche of shares at 53.30. It now looks like a possible/probable bounce play off the 50dma (presently at 51.51), which it finally came close to touching for support today (first major test of its 50dma since stock became available for trading last Aug) when it hit LOD of 52.01.
This could make for a nice gainer if it just heads back up toward its 20dma around $78. Even just to its 9dma at 60.88.
Yeah, turns out yesterday's lows on the TZA (down around $5.10) were the perfect buying point.
I think we'll see some (relatively undramatic) sector rotation and "don't fight the Fed" will be the mantra and excuse for keeping the overall party going for awhile-- especially if the Biden admin is able to speed up vaccination effort and the market can see an end to COVID complications.
The low interest rate environment combined with another massive stimulus / relief plan is simply too tempting, so Big Money investors will likely keep the stock-appreciation game going.
I do think there will be a few dips over next few months, but no 10% correction or worse.
Jmo..... and wtf do i know?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/petco-ceo-highlights-the-resiliency-of-the-pet-industry-as-covid-19-drives-increase-in-adoption-11610658883?mod=mw_latestnews
Petco CEO informs that COVID is driving more adoption of pets as companions during all this isolation from people sheltering in place.
Here's headline from Barron's:
Petco will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker WOOF.
Petco is scheduled to trade Thursday on the Nasdaq under the symbol WOOF.
Petco IPO's Exceeds Expectations, Raising $864 Million ...
3 main stock indices (Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq) were all slightly down after hitting highs intraday, but smallcaps (IWM) roared yet higher after a brief tiny dip late in day and then another burst up to close.
Maybe tomorrow is the time to start taking a position in TZA....
First we have to see the market's reaction to details of Biden's plan on stimulus....
Energy - Interesting short post here from Axios.com today about how some of the offshore oil/gas drillers are using some of their tech prowess to build offshore wind energy in Europe.
There's probably an actionable investment here with this, such as buying a turbine manufacturer. I don't have time to research it further....
https://www.axios.com/oil-offshore-wind-push-carbon-abde961c-23ae-469f-8640-a7b228cd3383.html
Energy & Environment
Oil majors deepen push into offshore wind
Ben Geman, author of Generate
This week brought new signs of multinational oil majors' deepening push into offshore wind.
Driving the news: France's Total is teaming up with Spain-based global power giant Iberdrola to develop what they say will be one of the world's largest offshore wind farms off Denmark's coast.
"The 50/50 partnership has been pre-qualified by the Danish Energy Agency to submit a bid for the Thor offshore wind farm in the Danish North Sea," the companies said.
The project will have power generating capacity of up to 1 gigawatt and it's slated to come online as soon as 2025, they said this morning.
Driving the news, part 2: New York State officials yesterday announced contracts with Equinor, the Norway-based global oil giant, for a pair of offshore wind projects.
The two farms will have a combined capacity of nearly 2.5 gigawatts, Equinor said of the projects — Empire Wind 2 and Beacon Wind 1.
They come on top of Equinor's planned Empire Wind 1 project off New York. BP is Equinor's strategic partner in the developments.
Yes, but: Renewables and low-carbon energy overall are currently a small part of oil majors' overall capital spending, with fossil fuels remaining their dominant business lines.
The big picture: Via Reuters, "European oil firms such as Equinor and BP are under pressure from activists, banks, investors and some governments to shift away from fossil fuels, and analysts say offshore wind farms are probably the quickest way for them to do so."
BGFV - $11.30 - Lake Street Capital analyst today reiterated "Buy" and boosted PT a little bit from $15 up to $16.
BGFV - Over at Stocktwits, one tweeter "MK21" posted this interesting info yesterday after taking in mgmt's ICR presentation:
MK21 - Bullish
1/13/21, 11:23 AM
$BGFV
To all the longs today is a great reassuring day for continued success of BGFV in the coming months. 90-.93 eps for Q4 is well over expectations and they indicated in ICR presentation that while their focus is brick and mortar, they are exploring accretive growth in omnichannel capabilities. Also mentioned that the demand and selling out of products is continuing until present which bodes well for Q1 2021.
Most of their stores are in CA and if you haven’t heard, we’re approaching 1mm covid cases so reopening is not something we can expect in the next few months. Continued outdoor recreation and return of team sports ... will all work in BGFV’s favor in the coming months as CA remains on lockdown and Biden administration focuses on school reopening and actively targeting NRA increasing gun and ammo sales. Q4 and Q1 are the slowest months for BGFV as a cyclical stock so with Q4 beat and momentum continuing in Q1, 2021 is looking very good.
BGFV - as i suspected yesterday, the stock might try to fall further just to draw near and test support at the rising 26dma and 20dma, which are clustered close to each other at 10.85 & 10.94.
Judging from past support-test behavior by BGFV, today's LOD of 11.18 (maybe lower later today?) might be "close enough" for the test to "succeed." And then it would have "permission" to go back up.
The sell-the-news phenomenon yesterday was ridiculous, but not unexpected given how traders manipulate these things.
I'm a buy of more shares down here in 11.20s...
valuations / risk-on -- Fwiw, the CNN Fear-Greed gauge is only at 69, not even into the deep green / extreme greed zone, due to a few of the 7 parameters (like junk bonds) not being in the "greedy" area. (By comparison, exactly one year ago it was up at 86).
So, if one thinks that kind of indicator has any value, it points to a lot more upside room for the markets.
I guess the Big Money has adamantly decided "Don't fight the Fed" and, at least with regard to stocks, is in "buy, buy, buy" mode.
TNA / TZA - amazing strength on TNA. I'm not touching/buying TZA til it looks like TNA has finally topped out...
BGFV - i bought another small tranche here in upper 11.60s.
Surely after this monster Q4 that top-tier analyst with Lake Street will up 2021 EPS estimates from lowly 1.26 up to over 2.00+.
BGFV will deserve to be in upper teens or over $20.... Jmo.
BGFV - btw, i notice that the short interest has come waaaaaaayyyy down on this name in the last reporting period, just over 2.1M.....
From Nasdaq.com:
12/31/2020 2,116,779
12/15/2020 3,915,022
11/30/2020 4,087,242
11/13/2020 5,052,323
10/30/2020 4,917,798
10/15/2020 4,692,716
09/30/2020 5,090,496
09/15/2020 4,315,082
08/31/2020 4,501,677
08/14/2020 4,266,737
07/31/2020 5,352,966
BGFV - i also picked up a small tranche of shares at 11.96 on what looks like a silly "sell the news" event.
Chartwise, it's fallen down from above upper Bollinger to the rising 9dma at 11.94. This stock is so volatile, it might even drop to near the next obvious support level, the rising 20dma and 26dma, which are clustered at the 10.83/10.85 area. Not saying it would fall all the way to that area, but it might try a drop to, say, the low $11s, where i would buy a lot more.
Killer numbers the co. reported this a.m.!!
Gilead, thanks for all those extra details. Sounds like a great browser.
i've not experienced the kinds of lockup problems with Chrome that you've described, and because of massive research i'm doing for a book project, not to mention investing and news monitoring, i can sometimes have as many as 35 tabs open at the same time
Do you have an anti-viral / security program on your laptop like Norton that periodically deletes all your obsolete 'net cookies and pages? That might be part of the problem..... Anyway, it's a moot point now that you're with Brave.
Gilead, that Brave browser-- does it easily remember passwords to websites like Google Chrome does?
S&P500 was overall just above even for the day, but IWM (smallcaps) and IWC (micros) were breaking out to new all-time highs.
After doing a brief swing trade on TZA from 5.58 to 5.74 (nothing to boast about) i'm thinking of re-entering with a bid down at 5.34 (TZA closed at 5.41). But that may turn out to be too high a bid if we get a few more positive days for IWM / TNA.
The IWM and corresponding etf TNA look monster-strong here.
I'm still thinking that fears about insurrectionist violence could dampen market buoyancy, if not this week then early next week in anticipation of inauguration day on Wed. Jan. 20.
Yes, "keep it in the black." But in the internet era of colorful T.A. chart candlesticks and moving lines (etc.), i'm thinking GREEN.
LMB - yes, some renewed strength happening with this one... on bigger trading volume than in recent weeks, too, which is always a good sign.
Another "positive" is that the RSI isn't even technically "overbought" (it's only at 69.8 level), despite these six straight green days for LMB (after those 7 straight red days to consolidate the gains in recent months).
Bottom line: assuming general markets don't pull back sharply, LMB could likely continue to melt up to the upper $14s or $15s even without any news of money-saving re-fi.
BGFV - glancing at the chart i noticed a pattern that's almost funny, maybe "planned" --by the HFT algos (or QAnon?) or whomever...
On Dec. 4, BGFV began a pattern of
6 out of 7 days in the red.
Then 6 straight positive "green" days.
Then 6 out of 7 red days.
Then 6 straight green days (culminating in today's multi-year high).
Go figure....
BGFV - glad to see it making a multi-year high today on intraday move up to HOD of 13.42. I hope some are still holding.
With the drought conditions / lack of snow prospects for so much of southern Sierras in Calif. and Utah and AZ because of the La Nina weather condition (which would surely affect some of Big5's winter sports revenues)...
i just couldn't bring myself to buy again in upper $9s for a 6th or 7th swing trade, so missed this last big upmove by BGFV.