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EVs - great writeup, Jwb, and it's why i've got a big position in FIII / ELMS, which, once the merger is completed in the next few weeks, will start rolling off the first few thousand Class 1 commercial vans this Fall at the former Hummer plant in Indiana (over 45k have been pre-ordered).
At the outset, with the $7.5k fed rebates, the vehicles will cost the same as the same-class Ford and Dodge ICEngine vans but TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) will be much less each year going forward due to no gasoline fuel, and far simpler maintenance for an EV powertrain.
Oh, and these ELMS delivery vans have approx. 25% more cargo space than the Ford and Dodge vans. And far more up-to-date digital connectivity. And customization for different uses (e.g., from Amazon deliveries to florists to cable/satellite install cos., to plumbers, etc.) is done much faster than with the Ford and Dodge vehicles.
After the attack on SPACs, and SEC hobbling them with new accounting rules for warrants, FIII and other EV SPACS have seen their stock prices massively depressed (FIII has been around $9.90 - $10 since early March), but i'm looking for ELMS (the ticker after the merger) to be a $50 stock by sometime next year as they quickly ramp up.
>saw a stat saying average new house had $24,000 added cost from higher lumber prices.
LJ, that's an older stat. Most recently (a few weeks ago) economists for the NAHB.org (National Assn of Home-Builders) calculated the extra cost for avg size home to be an added $36,000.... And that stat is already obsolete, because lumber prices jumped an extra 15%-20% since the calculations were done.
HYRE - oh, if only i had overslept this a.m. (here on Pacific Time) and not sold this puppy in pre-mkt and at open! Got a nice quick 15% gain after re-buying shares yesterday at 9.60 avg and then selling at 10.90s avg early today. But missed out on a big short squeeze jump of 50% to $13.45 on late arriving huge trading volume.
This has been a great swing trader for me before and now again.
I was a bit skittish and sold too early because Henrik Alex (usually a shortseller or bear on many stocks) started commenting a month ago on his own previously bullish article that HYRE won't be nearly as profitable this year as he previously thought.
He and i didn't count on this giant short-squeeze action.
Must have been something very bullish in the ER conf. call last night from CEO.
Absolutely crazy action on this one. I had been watching it since the last plunge to $62 and rebound up to mid $80s a few weeks ago and bought in on Friday at $58 avg, missed chance to sell in $65s, then had to watch it go to $50 this a.m. Sold everything in $59.90s for a small gain of $800.
"Coulda woulda shoulda..." and i would have made $5k easy in a couple of days had i sold even in $63s yesterday pre-mkt and bought in low $50s today and sold at $59.
I do think this should move higher, but there's been a lot of "bad news" algorithms plunging this down on chatter about drug price controls, the Biden admin waiving vaccine patents, and of course the big pullback on Nasdaq and tech.
I may put in some bids in low-to-mid $50s to see if more bottom-testing occurs on the XBI and LABU.
On the other hand, if Nasdaq and smallcaps show a continuing rebound tomorrow, XBI & LABU may jump right back up into the mid-to-upper $60s and higher..... We shall see.....
HEAR - this was a popular swing trade for some of us well over a year ago... Now trading in $27s. Very bullish buyout rumors floating around:
--from S.Alpha:
HEAR : Turtle Beach gains on report it hired bankers, getting interest for sale • 1:47 PM
• Turtle Beach (NASDAQ:HEAR) climbed 9.2% on a report that its hired bankers and is receiving inbound interest from potential buyers.
• The company is said to be receiving interest from PE firms and strategics and could see a "significant" premium in a takeout, according to a CTFN report.
• Late last month Reuters reported that Turtle Beach was being pushed to explore sale by activist Donerail Group.
• Turtle Beach short interest 9.76% of float.
LABU - finally pulled the trigger, buying at 59.18, couldn't get the $58s in time. I'll buy more if it revisits lower around this lower Bollinger band level. Six straight days down, due for a reversal.
Just bought more at 58.30 after the fake rebound.
AMS's stockchart looks absolutely bipolar the past 3 days. Crazy repeated upspikes and back down....
I'm one of the folks trying to get a house built in the coming year. It's madness. I've been checking the NAHB.org website a few times a week and homebuilders are mad as hell as what they perceive to be price-gouging by different players in the lumber industry. It's not the loggers. It's the middlemen. And the mills have been sluggish getting production back up.
NAHB is begging and pleading with Biden administration depts to cancel tariffs on Canadian lumber.
ACTC - popped up after hours and i thought it was b/c someone fat-fingered an AH trade, but it's likely on this news reported this afternoon by Reuters and other outlets, about a Dem Senate proposal to spend $73Bn electrifying the nation's buses:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/senate-democrats-propose-dollar73-billion-to-shift-us-to-ev-transit-buses/ar-BB1gma8n
Biotech index - XBI is checking out lows again after what looks like a triple bottom near $125 over the past 5 weeks (today closed at $129) after crashing / correcting back down following the strong peak made on Feb 8-9 around $175.
I was thinking of buying 3x leveraged bullish etf LABU at $62 on April 20 (the last bottom), didn't buy and quickly it rebounded up into mid-$80s within a week.
LABU now today in $66s after falling 12% on the nearly 4% downmove for corresponding XBI today.
If XBI falls a bit further tomorrow to test lower Bollinger band near that $125 level, LABU in lower $60s might be a BUY for a nice swing trade / reversion to mean.....
Looks like someone fat-fingered an after-hours trade, buying around 16.50 instead of 15.50.
Fun. I hope it doesn't mean too quick a rebound to higher levels.
I was still trying to buy more shares today in lower $14s after picking up some at 14.93.
I really like everything i'm hearing about Proterra and its 3 business segments. There's a good article from Jan. at SeekingAlpha.com on the ACTC merger with Proterra.
Nice to see lots of good news on Proterra since then.
BGFV -- Kicking myself i didn't buy a ton of one of my 2020 faves when it dipped down to $11s on mkt selloff in early March. Now more than double....
ACTC - i was buying shares this a.m. at $14.90 on this SPAC, which is merging with Proterra, one of the top upcoming EV plays according to several close watchers of the sector. Joe Biden visited the Proterra plant in recent weeks and essentially called them "a major part of our future" or words to that effect.
They got a huge schoolbus contract and use their EV drivetrain and platform for several other large vehicles.
Here's a write-up on ACTC / Proterra at S.Alpha:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398725-proterra-is-coming-to-market-via-spac-arclight-this-is-not-your-run-of-mill-ev-bus-builder
The partnership announced yesterday with Cox Automotive is big, positive news for FIII / ELMS, eliminating any concern some folks might have had that the ELMS Urban Delivery vans would not have the infrastructure to support maintenance and repairs.
Note, too, that the first vehicles are being promised by end of Q3, not Q4...
If the Cox Automotive Mobility president is affirming the big number of pre-orders for ELMS' delivery van, i'm taking that as extra confirmation they're real. They're only non-binding at this point b/c the merger hasn't completed.
From the PR:
"Cox Automotive Mobility President, Joe George. 'With an aggressive production timeline driven by pre-orders from on-demand service providers, ELMS is establishing itself as an innovative force in sustainable urban mobility'"
AMS - Anyone know why this one exploded 88% higher today?
EDIT UPDATE: now only 66% higher....
CTHR - yes, i only had a relatively small position of 2k shares bought at 2.80 avg but decided to autosell at 3.52 today, hoping for a bit of retracement. It's rebounded very nicely on a technical bounce off the lower Bollinger band nearly two weeks ago, now well above and pulling up the upper Bolly band.
Hmmm, i forgot about the ER. I may not be able to buy it on a pullback/breather in low $3s so may have to push my bid to re-buy shares somewhere higher. People may bid CTHR up nearer to $4 before any possible dip back to lower $3s....
Thanks to you and others for discussing this one a lot here.
Yes, fantastic gains by KiK in the contest, but i have to say that i was equally impressed by Hweb's 253% gains for the contest, given that he was generally picking bigger-cap tickers.
Very impressive, guys!
CTHR - i also bought today (for the first time after listening to all the talk about this one), at 2.79.
Looks good for the future!
QS - i almost posted a query this a.m. as to whether you were still in this one after the most recent 2021 hammering down of this stock from $60s to $30s.
Yeah, i'd trust VW, too.
I may re-buy some shares down here, but hard to know where is the bottom after the huge run-up last Fall.
UPDATE EDIT: the stock touched the lower Bollinger band today. That may be a bottom, but who knows?
SOOOO many names in the EV space have been plunged down precipitously after that Fall run-up. My sense is that there are a lot of neglected diamonds sitting around in the dust...
AVNW - it might want to test down a bit closer to the fast-rising 50dma (presently at 31.61, but rising)....
The substantial comment by Jeremy Blum gives a more indepth view on some points than the author of that S.A. article.
I've got a relatively small position in this going forward. I like the story for 2H 2021.
It sure was a great swing-trade stock in 2H 2020 into 2021.
SeekingAlpha has a news blurb out on EV sector, as Wedbush analyst sees it.
KEY POINT: if Federal tax credit for EVs does expand from $7.5k up to $10k, according to the Wedbush analyst's surmise, then ELMS' Urban Delivery van will be a "much hotter bargain" for those who need it, even beyond expected lower total cost of ownership (TCO) resulting from much lower fuel costs and maintenance costs. The upfront price would also be lower than the Ford or Chevy gas-powered delivery vans.
From S.Alpha:
"...as President Biden's $2.3T infrastructure plan works its way through Congress, Wedbush Securities ... analyst Dan Ives says to expect an expansion of the tax credits currently valued at $7.5K for EV vehicles to the $10K range or potentially higher in a tiered system. 'Other point-of-sale rebates could also be put into this wide ranging infrastructure bill to catalyze consumers to head down the EV path,' he notes."
Nelson, the SPX still may have room to run and the RSI move higher for an extended period, as we've seen before.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is not showing excessive "greed" these days, despite these all-time market highs. It's only at 59. Curiously, 2 of the 7 parameters are in "extreme fear" (stockprice breadth & strength) while 3 of the 7 are in "extreme greed" (junk bond demand, safe haven demand, and market momentum).
Go figure....
AWX - i'm glad the spike happened AH and not during normal trading.
I had a bid to sell last week for 4.26 (up from my buy-price at 3.30), and one day it hit 4.25.
Was able to sell all shares AH today in 4.60s (missed the initial brief spike into 4.80s).
Thanks, Hweb, for bringing this low-floater, recurrent upspiker to the board many seasons ago.
Home-builders: I don't understand how they are making money with material costs through the roof, not just random length lumber packages. Must just be volume of new building, compensating for thinner profit margins.
At NAHB.com, all the medium-sized and smaller builders posting replies to articles about lumber prices are complaining about losing money on many projects.
Imo there's far too much Big Money on the sidelines to swoop in and buy stocks before things get that bad on the downside in your forecast. There would have to be another serious structural problem like we saw in the financial crash of 2008 to get the downsides you speculate on.
LMB - yes, IHub is reporting it as a beat on both revenue and earnings.
Limbach EPS beats by $0.06, beats on revenue
16:01 : Thursday 25 March 2021
BGFV - from low $11s to low $17s in just two weeks!
Kicking myself i didn't get back in it on that panic selling day after ER.
Congrats to anyone who's still holding....
Some nice developments with FIII / ELMS:
News announced earlier this week that pre-orders (albeit "non-binding") are up from 30k to 45k.
Now, the first two analyst "Buy" recommends, both out this a.m.:
Colliers Securities initiates coverage on Forum Merger III Corp. with a Buy rating and a price target of $18.00.
Benchmark analyst Michael Ward initiates coverage on Forum Merger III (NASDAQ:FIII) with a Buy rating and announces Price Target of $23.
Forum Merger III initiated with a Buy at Benchmark
Benchmark analyst Michael Ward initiated coverage of Forum Merger III - which is in the process of merging with and bringing public Electric Last Mile Solutions - with a Buy rating and $23 price target. ELMS is "among the best-positioned companies to benefit from the expansion of e-commerce and the electrification of the commercial delivery fleet," argues Ward, who sees several factors that will lead to a faster adoption rate for the commercial fleet than other segments of the vehicle market in the U.S. ELMS's orders and competitive position put the company "on a fast path to $1 billion in revenue," Ward added.
FIII - p.s. here's some more about that Buy rating and $23 PT from the Benchmark analyst. Nothing we don't already know.... but glad the analyst community is beginning to wake up on ELMS / FIII:
Forum Merger III initiated with a Buy at Benchmark
Benchmark analyst Michael Ward initiated coverage of Forum Merger III - which is in the process of merging with and bringing public Electric Last Mile Solutions - with a Buy rating and $23 price target. ELMS is "among the best-positioned companies to benefit from the expansion of e-commerce and the electrification of the commercial delivery fleet," argues Ward, who sees several factors that will lead to a faster adoption rate for the commercial fleet than other segments of the vehicle market in the U.S. ELMS's orders and competitive position put the company "on a fast path to $1 billion in revenue," Ward added
FIII - p.s., also this morning: Colliers Securities initiates coverage on Forum Merger III Corp. with a Buy rating and a price target of $18.00.
If that poster is right about the downward pressure on the stock from the big money selling calls, expiring today, we may only see the start of a big rebound starting next week.
FIII - thanks for that, 2morrows! I wondered why it was perking up this a.m.
A poster over at S.Alpha has been theorizing that a big player or MM is holding this down to cover a massive option play. Here is what he speculated:
SecretUser March 11, 2021, 4:01 PM Comments (1.63K)
As expected... another day of a great example how this stock continues to be manipulated, and will likely remain so through next Friday’s options expiration [on Friday March 19].
All SPAC’s, certainly those in the EV space are racing higher, and FIII can never get anywhere...
- 12,000 open interest in March 19th $10 strike price, someone is on the other side of that and stands to lose a fortune if this runs in the next week.
- Take VLDR or RIDE or any other spac for that matter, their in-the-money calls still carry an easy $0.50-$0.70 premium through next week
- look at the 150,000 share sale that occurred just as stock was breaking above $10.6 today... and they waited for mid-afternoon when volume is pretty much dead quiet and has been on FIII all of the last 2 weeks
- manipulation... clear and broad daylight, but that’s okay, the April $10 calls are now super cheap as a result of this dampened volatility these past 3 weeks, and I was able to pick up 100 of the April $10 calls for $0.55-$0.6
- I imagine one of the institutions behind the PIPE with a bunch of shares must have sold calls, and is now putting selling pressure on the stock to keep price low through next week (but he’ll be a buyer thereafter)
He replies to someone on 3/15:
SecretUser
15 Mar. 2021, 11:59 AM
I’m not suggesting manipulation in the stock trading back to its cash value before the merger.
I am specifically pointing to the very “lopsided” open interest in $10 strike calls expiring this Friday. 12,000 open interest, or 1.2mm shares is more volume than the stock typically traded on any day... then look at the open interest for $10puts, or calls/puts on the $12.5 strike. It’s very lopsided, most likely brokers and/or investors in the pipe were on the other side of these call purchases, and are very incentivized to keep underlying daily volatility and price range bound at least this week. (FIII was on its way up in late Jan. touching $15... the past few weeks has seen a massive correction in all EV SPAC’s except FSR on company specific news... meanwhile FIII has traded in a tight 1-3% range each day up or down. That’s what I’m pointing to as the manipulation, and it’s most likely being done by market makers, and it most likely correlates to the lopsided nature of the open interest in $10 strike calls expiring this week.
HALL - thanks for the extra color, Nelson. I haven't been in this for a while and recall only a tiny gain. You've done very well with this one i've noticed over the seasons.
Did you cash in when it spiked to upper $4s today?
Maybe you've mentioned that, i'm only now catching up on messages and emails after a long hike this a.m.
After the massive heat and "nonsoon" and continuing drought here in the Southwest USA, there's very little plant growth let alone much blooming of wildflowers, but the stuff that does bloom seems miraculous to me! How does Nature do it?.....
LMB - got filled on more shares at 11.61 on a.m. dip.
I'm hoping that Lake Street analyst's PT of $19 is exceeded sometime later this year. There should be lots of good news from the co. as the seasons unfold, the economy more fully reopens, and lots of new infrastructure gets built....
LMB - i rebought some shares here today at 11.76 with bids below that.
Missed the chance to pick up shares nearly 2 weeks ago when it dipped to low $11s.
AMRK - it hit HOD (thus far anyway) at 37.50, just a nickel below the HOD achieved on Feb. 9, and now has fallen back to $36. Was that the dreaded "double top" failure?
Let's see if it draws new buyers in to finish above Feb. 9's close of 36.95.
AMRK - nice little upside breakout after recent proxy filled in more details about the lucrative-sounding JM Bullion acquisition.
My autosell hit in upper $34s after i established a cost basis of 30.13 two weeks ago (a little too high, missed some of those subsequent $27s)...
I'll rebuy shares on any dip.
But this could easily find some buying interest and head over $37 before it does that.
APT - yeah, it's kind of sad that except for a few brief rides up over $20, this one otherwise did not get "properly valued" for its remarkable 2020 earnings. Blame it on those "forward looking markets" which saw that APT's future would most likely not see a repeat of huge sales for their PPE equipment.
I was surprised that the co. has not built up a greater stash of cash during this peak-revenue period, but i'm aware they had some big expenses for ramping up that second factory line.
Sheesh, looks like it will take another pandemic to stoke big interest in APT again....
APT - right, i just can't bring myself to buy any shares, even for a technical bounce play, when i look at earnings for 2020 vs. 2019 and surmise (as the mkt likely is doing) that 2021 EPS might fall from 1.94 down to at least 60 or 80 cents / share.
Diluted earnings per common share for the year ended December 31, 2020 and 2019 were $1.94 and $0.23, respectively.
Looks like some energy is building for a FOMO (fear of missing out) trade this afternoon as so many names look to have been oversold this week.