Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Vaccines -- >"we aren't going to see real progress until May or June. It will be a miracle if 40 percent of the U.S. population is vaccinated by then. For one thing, there aren't enough people to administer the shots."
Yeah, this is another thing discussed in that Ed Yong article for TheAtlantic: e.g., there just aren't enough people trained to administer the mRNA vaccines such as the Pfizer one, which requires special knowledge about how to properly thaw it out..., etc.
Covid plays PEIX (specialty alcohols) and APT (ppe) are both trading down at and below their respective lower Bollinger bands today. Could be good 2021 rebound plays. I'm only in PEIX right now, small position.
LJ, i totally agree that schoolteachers should be vaccinated ASAP, put them all in the 1A Phase.
>"We aren't going to see real progress until May or June. This is ridiculous."
BB, that's why i was strongly recommending last night that long, extremely insightful (and fact-filled) essay by Ed Yong of TheAtlantic, who has been writing (imo) the very best journalist pieces about Covid since last Mar-April.
I'll put it in the "must read" category for all Americans.
You can find this article Where Year Two of the Pandemic Will Take Us
and others by Yong at
https://www.theatlantic.com/author/ed-yong/
What was really embarrassing, as a U.S. citizen, was reading about how communist Vietnam and long-ravaged Rwanda have both succeeded in virtually stamping out Covid from their countries, while the good ol' proud, hubristic USA is one of the worst places on the planet for Covid spread and fatalities.....
Yong in his article, among many other things, discusses how our great healthcare "capacity" meant almost nothing because we had such challenged *capability* and such lousy preventative and emergency community healthcare systems.
Some year-end thoughts from Mike Swanson over at Wall St. Window. He often has some very apt things to say, and here are some useful insights (can't show his stockcharts here at Ihub):
The Three Factors That Will Define The S&P 500 In 2021 – Mike Swanson (12/30/2020)
There are three things happening right now that will define the S&P 500 in 2021 as we close out this year.
1)Margin debt is now hitting a record high. American stock market investors have now borrowed over $700 billion against their own portfolios to buy more stocks. This creates a massive risk in the markets, because when you get people borrowing money to buy stocks whenever the market does turn down such people end up selling in panic and if they don’t sell and things go down enough (usually 20%) then their brokers force them to sell.
At the same time much of this buying is driven by people with little experience in the markets at all. This is a year in which MILLIONS of new traders go into the market thanks to apps such as Robinhood, which has said that over ten million new people opened accounts with them this year.
Most of these accounts were opened after May with people using stimulus money so these people have never seen a stock market drop of over 10%.
This is all a risk that will one day blow up, but it isn’t happening now, because….
2) While 2020 was defined by massive stock market volatility with a S&P 500 drop of over 33% in March and then a subsequent rally over over 70% from that low point, market volatility is actually now fading.
The Bollinger Band width indicator is a simple indicator that measures the true price volatility on a chart.
[It's low right now, according to the chart]
The Bollinger Band width indicator on the bottom of this chart is actually now trading at its lowest point for 2020, meaning that 20-day volatility has collapsed.
The market can continue to trade with shrinking volatility for months and I believe it will as I said in a video I put on youtube a few weeks ago.
3) At the same time as true price volatility is falling the VIX is still trading above 20, to show us that when it comes to traders hedging in the options market they are paying for a higher volatility premium than is justified by actual real price volatility.
I expect we’ll see the VIX go to 15 or below before we see a real decline in the stock market.
So what does all of this mean?
I expect we’ll see the market continue to trade the way it has in the past few weeks with falling volatility while investors take on greater risks, when it comes to buying more on margin, buying more call options, and buying riskier stocks and then at some point next year, probably in the second half, things will blow up on them again.
Until then it can and should be smooth sailing and if you try to point out to people that buying on margin is risky those doing it for the first time will only yell at you. This seems to be a game where people only can learn from their own hard lessons, but the reality is that the American economy is suffering like it is in a depression and many people are in the stock market to try to gamble to live
A stagnant economy and rising stock prices thanks to Fed debt creation and now borrowing activity by manic if not desperate investors is how we close out 2020.
-Mike
Covid - Another in-depth, excellent article from Ed Yong of TheAtlantic. It's long, but worthwhile reading or at least perusing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/pandemic-year-two/617528/
Where Year Two of the Pandemic Will Take Us
As vaccines roll out, the U.S. will face a choice about what to learn and what to forget.
• Story by Ed Yong
• DEC 29, 2020
OT - Very sad, a 41-year-old newly elected Congressional Rep. from Louisiana, a married father of two children, has died of Covid.
One of ~3,400 who've died thus far today from this insidious, terrible disease:
https://www.axios.com/louisiana-gop-rep-luke-letlow-dies-covid-19-22fa47b6-f4c3-44ae-8ca6-cf44f111b6cc.html
Newly elected Louisiana GOP Rep. Luke Letlow, 41, dies of coronavirus
Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-La.) died on Tuesday night after being admitted to a Louisiana hospital intensive care unit with COVID-19, his spokesperson Andrew Bautsch confirmed. He was 41.
The big picture: Letlow was due to be sworn into Congress Sunday. He announced on Dec. 18 that he had tested positive for the coronavirus and was admitted to the Ochsner LSU Health ICU in Shreveport on Dec. 23.
PEIX - got a partial fill on a mere 954 shares at 5.62 (the LOD thus far). Had my eye on other stuff, otherwise would have raised bid by a penny to get more.
I'm not going in heavily on this one, it's just a chart play and a bet that PEIX will continue to lower their debt (not just to NET-debt zero) and continue to post decent earnings (analyst has them for about 1.00 EPS for 2021, as i recall).
DJIA / $INDU - yeah, any 8% correction from here would fill that chart gap from around the 28,500 to around 29,200 area... If the Dow / S&P500 melt up further, say, into mid-Jan., a full 10% correction would be need to fill the gap.
How likely? If the HFT algo gods want it to happen, it will!!
FIII - here's another succinct set of info-points on the new merged company-- notice just two of the very experienced executives.
Given the massive and growing need for delivery vans for all those online orders of products, this could be a real winner.
https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/12/18751092/electric-last-mile-spac-merger-what-investors-should-know
Electric Last Mile SPAC Merger: What Investors Should Know
Chris Katje , Benzinga Staff Writer
Dec 11, 2020 9:57am
Electric delivery van company Electric Last Mile is set to go public through a SPAC merger with Forum Merger III Corporation.
The SPAC Deal: Electric Last Mile will merge with Forum Merger III Corporation. The deal values the company at $1.4 billion. Forum Merger III shareholders will own 17.6% of the new company. Electric Last Mile will trade under the ticker "ELMS" on the NASDAQ.
About Electric Last Mile: The Electric Last Mile team includes founder and chairman Jason Luo, who was previously the chairman and CEO of Ford Motor Company’s F China business. Founder and CEO James Taylor worked for General Motors Company for more than 30 years, holding roles that included president of Cadillac and CEO of Hummer. Taylor is also the former chairman and CEO of Workhorse Group.
The Commercial Vehicle Market: Electric Last Mile is set to launch the Urban Delivery Van in the third quarter of 2021. This could be [most likely will be] the first electric Class I commercial vehicle to come to market. The vehicle will have the same price as gas vehicles and also have 20% more cargo space, which could make it attractive to delivery companies.
The company has over 30,000 pre-orders from customers, which include leading brands and some of the largest fleet managers in the country. The orders represent over $1 billion in revenue.
Electric Last Mile named Walmart, FedEx Corporation, Ryder System, Ikea, Penske Automotive Group, and Hertz Global Holdings Inc as customers.
The company is using a former Hummer plant in Indiana that has been retrofitted for electric vehicle production.
Electric Last Mile said they have first-mover advantage in the last-mile segment.
The North American e-commerce market has grown to $1 trillion and created a need for new, low-cost Class I vehicles, according to the company.
Electric Last Mile Financials: The company expects to have revenue of $122 million in fiscal 2021 and $613 million in fiscal 2022. Electric Last Mile sees revenue growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 123% from 2021 to 2025, hitting a total of $3 billion by 2025.
Units sold are seen growing from 4,000 to 83,000 by the year 2025.
Future Growth: The company is planning on launching a Class 2/3 Urban Utility Van in 2022. This product would compete with Workhorse, Amazon.com Rivian and Ford.
In 2023, Electric Last Mile is planning on launching a new vehicle for the China and European markets.
FIII - Just bought shares in the $13s price-area of this SPAC known as FIII, which is acquiring EV delivery van manufacturer ELMS and, if/when the deal closes, will trade on Nasdaq as ELMS.
This looks to some observers to be the very best value right now for playing the hot EV sector.
A very in-depth article here at S.Alpha:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4396447-electric-last-mile-undervalued-electric-vehicle-spac
And here was a recent news blurb about the planned merger at S.Alpha, followed by an excellent summary comment:
EV Company Electric Last Mile to go public through merger with Forum Merger III at $1.4B valuation
Dec. 11, 2020 7:21 AM ET Forum Merger III Corporation (FIII) By: Niloofer Shaikh, SA News Editor
• Electric Last Mile (ELMS) to combine with Forum Merger III Corp (NASDAQ:FIIIU) at ~$1.4B pro forma valuation.
• ELMS has a 675K square foot production plant in Indiana with a capacity to produce 100K vehicles annually.
• Upon closing of the transaction in 1Q2021, the combined company will be named Electric Last Mile Solutions and will trade on Nasdaq under the new ticker symbol 'ELMS'.
• ELMS expects to launch its Urban Delivery van as the first electric Class 1 commercial vehicle in the U.S., with the expected lowest total cost of ownership in 3Q21.
• To date, ELMS has over 30,000 pre-orders from customers including leading brands and some of the largest fleet managers and dealers in the country.
•
• David Boris, Co-Chief Executive Officer and CFO of Forum III said, "Upon the closing of the business combination, ELMS will have in place a product based on a proven, top-selling platform as well as a U.S. plant with significant capacity. In addition, the experienced management team has already generated substantial pre-orders representing over $1B in anticipated revenues. With the investment from Forum III and other investors, ELMS will be fully funded to launch its initial products, and serve the growing demand for delivery vehicles. We look forward to working with the ELMS team to build an industry leading electric vehicle company.”
• Transaction supported by ~$155M in fully committed PIPE and related financing anchored by institutional investors including BNP Paribas Asset Management Energy Transition Fund and Jennison Associates LLC and ~$379M of gross proceeds expected from the transaction to be used to fund operations and growth.
•
• Pro forma ownership post merger: ~66.7% existing shareholders, ~17.6% public shareholders of Forum Merger III Corp, ~4.8% Forum Merger III Corp sponsors, ~10.9% PIPE investors:
•
• Shares up 9% premarket.
Comments (1)
Varna_Commentary 13 Dec. 2020
FIII [Electric Last Mile Solutions] looks very promising: Expect a near term $20-$25 price target. On CNBC Phil Lebeau appeared to hint that CNBC will be looking at Electric Last Mile Solutions plant in the near future. Some of the many positives for FIII:
--Taking over the manufacturing over the former GM Hummer Plant. Manufacturing capability is a major component that many EV companies lack. The Hummer plant is set up similar to TESLA's plants with the ability to rapidly adjust change orders.
--$1 billion in anticipated revenues. (If they meet this projection FIII could be a $100 a share or higher in 24-36 months)
--The market is in high demand with the ever increasing demand for Amazon, grocery and delivery & transportation services.
--The management team is proven and the CEO was formerly Workhorse's CEO.
--The financing structure is much stronger than many other SPACs and fully funded.
The IWM and IWC etfs for the Russell2000 and the Microcaps are down 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, so naturally i'm seeing many interesting stocks down 5-7%.
LMB - my bid for shares at $12.22 filled this a.m. Looks like stock is doing yet another (usual) support test, this time at the 26dma at 12.15. I don't think it will fall all the way to mid-11s to test the lower Bollinger band, but it could.
BGFV - KiK, i wish i could just throw up a chart for you to see --you can go to Stockcharts.com and plug in the overlays for Ichimoku Cloud full and also the Bollinger bands to see a lot of what's going on....
Stock has retraced from above the upper Bolly band down to hovering right now around the 9dma in 10.33 area; it could fall further to test that 26dma at 9.98. The next obvious support level is the 20dma (mid-Bolly band) at 9.57. Given how wildly this stock has swung the past several months, there's a fair to good chance it will try finding support all the way down at that 20dma.
Accumulation level (see Indicators) is still very high for BGFV, a healthy sign. RSI obviously has a lot of upside from here.
If it falls back to $9s i'd likely buy some shares.
P.S. -- i notice the stock hit a LOD of 10.21; that may be the closest it falls toward the 26dma.
It's bizarre how almost all day the USA ticker AMYZF was trading ABOVE the Canadian ticker AMY, and on huge volume. The former was up 34% and the latter was down nearly 15%.
WTF?? Did the loonie just come up to par with the USD???
Vaccines - Great post, R59. At this point, short of total lockdown / shelter in place for a few weeks (and we know how too many rebellious Americans feel about that), the vaccine is the only way to quickly get safe "herd immunity" and knock out this coronavirus.
As usual, Mitch Zacks in his weekly email has some very insightful things to say about stockmarkets and the economy. He has been right far more often than wrong over the years i've followed his weekly column.
Note that his views don't preclude a correction sometime in the new year-- he actually wrote a recent column that spoke of how common corrections are in the stockmarkets over the decades. But his overall view for 2021 (especially second half) is bullish....
[Email from Mitch Zacks on 12/26/20:]
4 Reasons to Be Hopeful (and Bullish) in 2021
There’s no sugar coating it – 2020 was a tough year. The country confronted a once-in-a-generation pandemic, a major service-sector driven recession, a divisive and contentious election cycle, and social tensions of many different stripes. Multiple issues seemed to collide all at once.
I won’t weigh-in on social or political issues here, but from an economic perspective, I can confidently say the U.S. is primed for a strong recovery in 2021. Here are four reasons I think you should be hopeful – and bullish – in 2021.
Reason #1: Don’t Fight Excess Liquidity
The Federal Reserve’s monetary response to the pandemic-fueled recession happened in record time and in record dollar amounts. The Federal government followed suit with the CARES Act, injecting trillions more into the U.S. economy. In all, 2020’s monetized stimulus amounted to more than 15% of GDP – an astounding number.
Not all of that liquidity has flowed through the capital markets yet, and more is on the way. I realize that recent fiscal stimulus talks have stalled and resulted in impasse after impasse. But I remain confident that another package is in the future, and I think it could amount to another $1 trillion in spending. A structural budget deficit in 2021 seems all but assured, which I view as a major positive for the private sector and ultimately, stocks. The Federal Reserve also looms in the backdrop with unwavering monetary stimulus.
Reason #2: Cash Reserves + Pent-Up Demand = Spending
A common reflex in an economic crisis is to build-up cash reserves. The Covid-19 pandemic was no exception for many American households.
In early December, personal savings were $1.3 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic trend suggested they would be – a result of households socking away cash and not being able to spend through normal channels due to travel and other economic restrictions. The $1.3 trillion that households have in savings amounts to over 6% of GDP, and I think that money is eager to be spent. A post-pandemic economy could feel this wave of pent-up consumption demand.2
Corporations have also been building cash reserves, with many taking advantage of low rates to issue bonds. The Federal government is even holding historically high levels of cash, having $1.7 trillion stashed in the U.S. Treasury’s General Account. This liquidity is not likely to stay dormant in savings, in my view.
Reason #3: Technological Innovation That’s Profitable
Technology’s role in economic development has been a persistent theme over the last 20-30 years. But the critical difference between now and 20-30 years ago is that the technology companies leading the way are generating significant cash flows. That’s key.
They’re also generating significant cash flows in record time. Instead of spending years and massive amounts of capital to build a network of plants or stores, they can sell a product or a service over the internet, or via a smartphone. The “asset-light” technology companies of today can spend their resources and profit reaching new customers, instead of maintaining and growing capital assets.
2020 saw rapid-fire adoption of many new technology services and ways of shopping, from businesses implementing new digital infrastructure, to retailers rolling out e-commerce channels, to consumers trying services like grocery delivery for the first time. These technological trends were underway already, but 2020 served as a catalyst propelling them forward. I expect the momentum to continue in the new year.
Reason #4: Low Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere, and Investors Know It
The reality of lower-for-longer interest rates is generally bad news for savers, but generally good news for equity investors and borrowers. I have written before that interest rates anchored to the zero bound tend to push investors further out onto the risk curve, particularly those in search of yield. What assets are out on the risk curve ready to receive this rotating capital? Stocks, in my view.
The short-to-medium term outlook for low/negative real bond yields pushes down the discount rate, making equities attractive relative to bonds. When pricing stocks, a quick method is to consider a corporation’s future earnings potential less the risk-free interest rate – this is the discount rate. A lower discount rate means that future corporate earnings are more valuable, which by extension tends to make stocks more attractive. If the options are to lose money on Treasuries or to own a portion of a company’s future earnings (by owning shares of stock), investors today are being nudged to choose the latter, in my view.
Furthermore, the free cash flow yield on the S&P 500 is a staggering 10 times the yield available on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury. I’d much rather invest in the former.
Bottom Line for Investors
All of my arguments above centered on economic fundamentals and projections, without any mention of the vaccine! The ‘herd immunity’ we can achieve from vaccine uptake is perhaps the biggest story of 2021, and one I think most Americans are ready to embrace. I understand that many Americans will not want to take the vaccine, and that the rollout is complex and could get messy. But I strongly believe there is light at the end of this tunnel, and society can return to normal in the second half of next year. I’m excited to see what that looks like for the economy, and thinking about it makes me very bullish.
To help better position yourself for what’s to come in the new year, I recommend focusing on key data points and economic indicators that could positively impact your investments in the long-term. To help you do this, I am offering all readers our Just-Released January 2021 Stock Market Outlook Report.
I just noticed that the $2k stimulus check amendment has already been killed by Republicans in the House this a.m. So Pelosi is calling the entire House back on Dec. 28, where the amendment should pass by simple majority vote.
But then it's a question of whether any Republicans in the Senate will support it.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/24/politics/house-vote-stimulus-checks-government/index.html
Very unlikely that people are getting a $2k check instead of the $600. It was a late-timed stunt by DJT to look sympathetic, after a bill had already passed (why wasn't he pressuring Mitch McConnell all along in the process?)....
All it will take is a single Republican to shoot down the amendment and there's no $2k check in the mail.
------------
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/2000-stimulus-check-1105431/
DEC 23, 2020 12:37PM ET
Ho, Ho, Ho, You’re Not Getting $2,000
Trump’s demand for larger checks is just cruel political theater
By TESSA STUART
It’s the holidays, it’s been a truly miserable year, overwhelming numbers of Americans are missing their families, those hit hardest by the pandemic and collapse of the economy are still waiting for relief from the government of one of the richest nations in the world, and last night, in front of a festive, ornament-dotted Christmas mantle, the president offered a giant, gift-wrapped box of false hope.
“The $900 billion package provides hardworking taxpayers with only $600 each in relief payments, and not enough money is given to small businesses,” President Trump declared. “I’m asking Congress to amend this bill and increase the ridiculously low $600 to $2000 — $4000 for a couple.”
He’s right: $600 is a pathetic pittance to throw at people who have lost jobs, businesses, and loved ones as the virus has continued to ravage communities in every state, totally uncontained, for three quarters of a year. For months now, Democrats have been calling for another round of $1,200 stimulus checks — the House even passed a bill that would have sent them out in July, but Mitch McConnell and the Republican-controlled Senate refused to take up the legislation.
It’s wonderful that the president has finally torn his attention away from botching a coup long enough to recognize that Americans need relief — Welcome! — but his demand doesn’t mean much at this point, coming not only after months of negotiations, but after the bill has already passed both chambers of Congress. (Though, to be fair to Trump, he apparently did harbor earlier concerns about the size of the $600 checks, but was reportedly talked out of raising those concerns by his own “frantic aides” back when he might actually have had an impact on relief negotiations.)
So, what happens now? Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib have written an amendment that would change the figure in the bill from $600 to $2000. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer both expressed their support, with Pelosi promising to bring the amendment to the floor this week. Some Republicans have even jumped on board — Lindsey Graham tweeted late last night, ”The American people are hurting and deserve relief. I know there is much bipartisan support for this idea. Let’s go further.”
This all sounds great, right? Like a Christmas miracle, Democrats and Republicans from both ends of the political spectrum are setting their differences aside and coming together to do a solid for their fellow Americans.
Here’s the catch: Speaker Pelosi has promised to bring the bill to the floor by unanimous consent, meaning that any one of the House’s 435 members can object and the amendment would be dead in the water. And some Republican undoubtedly will object, citing, very solemnly, his concerns about the national debt. (For a preview of what’s in store, check out Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s speech just a few days ago blocking his colleague Josh Hawley’s motion for $1,200 stimulus checks.)
Making a Republican block help for citizens is great politics for Democrats: a big, technicolor demonstration of Republican indifference to the average American’s struggles, just a few weeks ahead of a major election that will determine control of the Senate. Democrats could not ask for a more vivid and flattering contrast at such a critical moment.
But the unanimous consent vote isn’t a serious attempt to deliver aid to those who need it. That would mean calling members back to Washington for a full vote that, as Democrats control the House, would actually pass. Sure, the legislation would almost certainly still die in the Senate, but House Democrats would at least have done all they could.
What’s happening instead is political theater, and a particularly cruel version of it — like a giant Christmas prank being played on any poor, un-jaded soul feeling some stirring of hope that their elected leaders actually mean what they’re saying, and are really, truly trying to get them some help. The tell that it was all a big joke came from Trump himself, who ended his video with a winking threat to remain in the White House if his demands aren’t met. “Send me a suitable bill or else the next administration will have to deliver a covid relief package — and maybe that administration will be me,” he said.
TZA - Ha! it's that 3x bearish instrument that (along with NUGT and SEAC) put me in last place in SSKillz's most recent investing contest this year! Thank God i didn't own any shares in my real portfolio (or NUGT either, except for a brief, slightly profitable trade).
Covid deaths: looks like USA may unfortunately experience its first day of fatalities hitting 4,000 or more. According to Worldometers.com, fully 3,089 deaths have already been recorded for today and it's only 3:40 pm Pacific Time.
Meanwhile, i saw a grim news blurb from L.A. Times this a.m.:
Rich countries are hoarding COVID-19 vaccines. Elsewhere, the pandemic may keep killing for years.
On Vaccines, It’s Every Country for Itself
The race to vaccinate the world against a once-in-a-century pandemic has begun in an all-too-familiar way.
Rich nations have gobbled up nearly all the global supply of the two leading COVID-19 vaccines through the end of 2021, leaving many middle-income countries to turn to unproven drugs developed by China and Russia while poorer states face long waits for their first doses.
“Richer countries will be able to vaccinate ... their whole populations before vulnerable groups in many developing countries get covered,” said Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Center at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva.
As a result, the pandemic may continue to kill people across much of the world for years, delay a global economic recovery and eventually resurge even in nations that manage to control it in coming months through vaccination.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AMY.v / AMYZF - I dislike having to say it, but i suspect that the immense trading vol. here the past few days is some big owner of shares running up the shareprice and then selling into volume. It's certainly happened before with any number of stocks. It's happened at least once with AMY, especially back in 2016.
My surmise is that sometime into 2021, the shareprice will fade down another 30% or so, to maybe about 20-30% higher than where it traded for much of 2019-2020 (except for those ultra-low pandemic-induced prices).
RCMT - 1.71. Interesting stock. For those looking for an entry, technically it retreated this a.m. from upper Bollinger band at 1.76 (after hitting 1.75). There's probable support from the 9dma and 20dma at 1.69 and 1.67, and very recent horizontal support at 1.60.
CCRC - p.s., Abh i forgot to mention that i checked Fintel this a.m. and saw that 25% of the massive trading vol. on Monday (over 2.5M of 10M shares traded) was short, as was 15% of yesterday's smaller volume.
So my prior mention of only 1% of shorts as of Nov. 30 is no longer true.
Again, given the low trading vol. usually associated with this stock, if more shorts entered, they might be able to easily push it back down, despite the bullish S.Alpha piece and Jeremy's Twitter following.
We'll see!
GLTA holding this name. I hope it goes back up to over $5!
CCRC - Hi Abh, thanks for alerting me to this Twitter thread from Jeremy R, though i only saw it right after i sold all my 3k shares @$3.91 for a quick $1,000 gain from the cost-basis i created yesterday. I was mainly concerned that vol. might dry up despite the S.Alpha article yesterday (and Jeremy R's Twitter thread today), and any new shorts might be able to push this back down, despite that $5.37 buyout offer on the table from the directors/officers.
I notice that Jeremy has a substantial following of nearly 7k followers, so he may be able to move this stock up higher, along with that S.Alpha author.
Don't know if you saw some of the replies by one fellow (KonekoResearch) to Jeremy's tweet-thread. Here is the comment exchange, and i've put a few brief comments in brackets [ ]. It's that last comment by KonekoResearch about lack of any significant news about the co. in China that gives me pause about how much to trust CCRC.
------------
REPLIES TO JEREMY's Twitter thread:
KonekoResearch@KonekoResearch 2h 23 Dec 2020 Replying to @puppyeh1 [Jeremy Raper]: Buyer Beware This deal might go through, but it's not a clean story. https://jcapitalresearch.com/ccrc.html
Jeremy Raper@puppyeh1 • Yes. that buyout at $16 a few yrs ago was complete hogwash - but was from a different, unrelated group (not the insiders). this new takeout by insiders is at a v cheap price and not unrealistically high. the other critiques were basically boilerplate and not impressive to me.
KonekoResearch@KonekoResearch• Institutional shareholding is basically zero despite the apparently appealing financial metrics and claimed prominent customers. [Guangzhou Cornerstone Asset Management Co., Ltd. owns just over 1M shares, acc. to Fintel]
Jeremy Raper@puppyeh1 • Institutional holding for any co with a market cap of $70mm is basically zero. The financial metrics aren't that great. they're ok. As i mentioned, im not 100% sure it’s real. But if it’s fake what does mgmt have to gain by taking it out? why not sell down instead?
KonekoResearch@KonekoResearch • Who really owns this stock? No disclosure of the pre-IPO shareholders. No 13D/F/G holders. IPO was only 2.4mm shares. "Buyer consortium " is 43.48%. That leaves unknown pre-IPO parties holding up to 8mm shares. They could sell into the bid created by the buyout offer.
Jeremy Raper@puppyeh1• It’s possible. but then insiders would be on the hook for a (in your reading) fraudulent enterprise. much more likely/common would be to pump the stock to allow them all to get out/sell down (eg like the last abortive bid 2yrs ago). you don't pump a fraud w an artificially low px
KonekoResearch@KonekoResearch• I don't have any evidence the company is a fraud, however I see minimal evidence it is real. News search for the company's chinese name "????" turns up almost nothing. Corporate website hasn't been updated in years. Wechat account has low activity. Good luck to buyers.
Haven't seen the doc on Netflix. It would likely bring up too many painful memories.
There have been other legit China cos. trading here in USA other than BABA. JD is one. I swung trade that some 18 months ago for a nice small gain i think around $22 to $27. It's MUCH higher now, in $80s and recently traded in $93s.
Same with NIO. Small profitable swing trade from around $5-$7, then it collapsed after i got out. Now it's way up in the skies (all-time high of $57 recently in Nov., now in $47s) with the return of love for EVs this year, especially China EVs.
BGFV - Kicking myself i didn't rebuy my 3k shares sold last Wed. at $8.98. Gorgeous up-move here to upper $11s.
3.87M total shares were traded on Friday and Monday, plus nearly 1.8M shares traded today.
I wonder how many shorts have covered? There were 4M shares short as of last reporting period on 11/30.
Ha! Sometimes i can do some very stupid things, like investing heavily in China stocks in 2010. After having several doubles and triples on small wagers, i "bet and lost the farm" on China Media Express, which i thought was the most solid of all, with a supposedly top-notch Big 4 auditor and vetted by all sorts of folks, including Hank Greenburg, longtime Chairman/CEO of AIG at the time, and lots of native Chinese speakers.
CCRC - China Customer Relations Centers (Nasdaq: CCRC) -46% today to LOD (thus far) of 3.34, probably testing the 52-wk intraday low of 3.32 from March pandemic low period. Yesterday the stock moved from around 4.90s (prior day close) to touch $10, then faded to close in $6.20s.
I'm buying a relatively small number of shares in the $3.30s and 3.50s for a swing trade, maybe a longer hold, despite the China risk.
It is indeed a China stock trading on Nasdaq. For much of the past few years it mainly has traded on fairly low vol. between $4.30s and $5.50s.
There's a very bullish new S.Alpha article just released today on CCRC by a well-followed CFA, though one poster in comments thread has challenged him to prove the co. is real.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395822-china-customer-relations-centers-fast-growth-and-profitable-operations-justify-stock-price-of
Long Ideas | Services | China
China Customer Relations Centers: Fast Growth And Profitable Operations Justify A Stock Price Of At Least $10
Dec. 22, 2020 11:55 AM ET
Summary
CCRC increased 26% on over 10 million shares traded on Monday after Friday afternoon's press release showed a strong improvement in the company's financials.
Revenue, gross profit, operating income and operating cash flow all drastically improved in the first half of 2020, with EPS more than doubling from $0.27 to $0.56.
Trailing 12-month EPS is $1.00. A conservative 10x earnings multiple leads to a stock price of $10.
The last time CCRC saw such strong EPS and revenue growth numbers was in 2018 when it was trading around $15.
Even when considering the bearish argument, CCRC represents extremely good risk-to-reward trade off based on fundamentals.
-----------------
The shares short on CCRC are well under 1% of the 10M share-float. (Insiders and big funds own the other 8M shares.)
There is a private buyout offer for $5.37 for CCRC which the co. has not (yet) accepted.
Technically, the weekly chart's lower Bollinger band is 3.54, so stock may be toying with this. At s/p in 3.50s the mkt cap is $90M. Stock previously hit low of $3.70 on 9/25/20, so it’s a break below a double bottom here on 12/22 to test LOD for 52-wk period at 3.32.
Again, well under 1% of shares are short as of 11/30/20, so CCRC seems legit, despite a short report over 2 years ago by J. Capital (and stock traded well above the shortseller’s PT of 2.87 ever since then).
Maybe the would-be buyer of the co. is pushing down the s/price to make the deal buyout at $5.37 more attractive.
The N95 masks and K94 masks from S.Korea fit very snugly (they have those embedded wires you can bend to fit even more snugly around your nose), so they don't slide down the nose.
PEIX - i had a bid for shares at 5.62 and missed when it only dropped to 5.70 this a.m. before showing some strength again to get back above $6.
I don't know whether it will be able to hit/surpass $7 again as it did almost a month ago, given that 50dma and upper Bollinger are both now down at 6.88.
BGFV - i think it hits the 10.50s. MACD has turned up very strongly from a recent nadir, the RSI is still only in 64s, the upper Bolly band has been pulled up to 10.46, and the "mutant strain of coronavirus" news and likelihood of vaccine-induced herd immunity not happening for at least another 5-6 months is giving Big5 some renewed attention along with other "Covid plays."
And recall that there were still around 4 million short shares out there as of last reporting period (to further fuel the upmove), though some of that may have come down over these past 5 days of runup.
BGFV - this stock primarily follows technical chart patterns, which can roughly be described since August as up-down, up-down moves between the Bollinger bands, also significantly involving the 9dma, 20dma, 26dma and 50dma lines as key support-resistance levels.
When last Monday BGFV fell intraday below its lower Bollinger band, the Ichimoku T.A. upper green cloud band in the 7.70s provided the perfect support for the prior several days' down-move and its been five straight green days since then.
Just pull up a daily chart at Stockcharts.com and plug in the Bollinger band and Ichimoku Cloud t.a. as "Overlays." You'll see exactly what i'm talking about.
Covid - the primary danger, according to the best science from epidemiologists and virologists, is SHARED STAGNANT AIR.
Most people are afraid of contact surfaces, but whereas some surfaces may have a significant viral load, it's all those aerosol droplets hanging around for considerable periods of time within stagnant air spaces that evidently are the primary route for transmitting Covid.
And remember that ASYMPTOMATIC PERSONS are shedding the virus all over the place.
So an empty supermarket aisle might seem "safe," but you don't know what gaggle of teens or young adults were just in the aisle 30 seconds ago who might have been chatting and laughing and emitting a big load of Coronavirus-contaminated aerosol particles that are still lingering.
This is why folks should be wearing the N95 masks (or K94 from S.Korea, 94% efficient). As i've posted before, most folks are wearing cotton masks rated at only about 25-50% efficacy.
Just sayin'....
P.S. -- Bobwins, i agree that hours at a holiday dinner in an enclosed room is a more dangerous breeding ground for Covid than just briefly popping into a supermarket for several minutes.
May you all keep safe and stay healthy, everyone.
BGFV - beautiful up-move today, trading in 9.80s right now!
I sold too early on that swing trade last week. Or should have rebought on the dip to 8.50s, but i really did think it was going back down to 8.20s or so on a retrace after failing to stay above 9s last week.
Hope you're still holding. Now looks like this could go back over $10....
Upper Bollinger band is presently at 10.41.
LMB - yeah, glad to see it staying strong for you. I had a bid for re-buying all my shares at 11.94 and just missed it several days ago when it only dipped to 12.04. "Should have chased it" a bit.
Now shareholders can look forward to likely another pop up to $14s or $15s on any refi news.
PATI / Trucking industry / drivers -- interesting news blurb and comment thread about this sector: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3618568-trucking-industry-is-going-to-to-pay-lot-to-attract-new-drivers
APT - bb, there was a very detailed but rather blandly bullish article on APT a couple of days ago at www.SeekingAlpha.com . Our own Abh3vt had a pertinent comment in the comment-thread.
Bitcoin - as you might have heard, Hweb, the driver for this upspike in bitcoin is the perception that the USD is growing weaker due to the scary deficit levels and also the world wanting another alternative than gold to the USD, and bitcoin fits the bill since evidently more businesses are likely to begin accepting it for payment in future.
Disclosure: i don't own any bitcoin, but this is what i've been perusing in some financial news blurbs.
Covid deaths - Teomax, this is what i'm thinking, too. I dread seeing what the numbers will be around mid- and late-Jan., after too many people have irresponsibly gathered for Christmas and New Year's festive social events.