Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Something else I just noticed is the 5 day chart. A huge spike in volume (several times greater than today) and temporary share price run occurred on mid-Monday.
Could be a coincidence but perhaps the results were known (and traded) by insiders back then.
Similar thing occurred with INO ... huge run *before* the Roche deal was announced. But at least in that case the CEO had been mentioning there was good progress on a deal.
Any insights why ADXS is down today ... the science is critical so good news in that regard should have had a favorable impact.
1. Details were already leaked?
2. Market is skeptical of the results?
3. Market was expecting better results?
4. Trading on is on technicals and factors other than fundamentals?
"Advaxis Reports Final 18-Month Survival Data for ADXS-HPV in Patients with Recurrent Cervical Cancer"
I don't recall the baseline 18 month survival rate offhand ... if anyone has this it would be appreciated.
That said, given the lift in 18 month survival .... I'm inferring perhaps about 20% of those treated had life extended by the treatment whereas the rest of patients had no effect (the median survival is similar to baseline).
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=59943957&symbol=ADXS
Advaxis, Inc., (NASDAQ:ADXS), a leader in developing the next generation of cancer immunotherapies, announced today final 18-month survival data from Lm-LLO-E7-15, a randomized Phase 2 study evaluating the safety and efficacy of ADXS-HPV (1x109 cfu) (ADXS11-001) with and without cisplatin (40 mg/m2, weekly x5) in 110 patients with recurrent cervical cancer in two treatment arms of 55 patients each. The primary endpoint of the study is overall survival. These data will be presented at the 2013 Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) Annual Meeting in National Harbor, MD, on November 9, 2013 (Poster #258).
The last patient last visit (Day 545) occurred on October 18, 2013. The final 18-month survival data are 28% (31/110) which is updated from the preliminary18-month survival of 22% (16/73) reported at the 2013 ASCO Annual Meeting on June 2, 2013. The final 12-month survival was 36% (39/110). These data are comparable to the results for the landmark 2004 Phase 3 study conducted by the Gynecologic Oncology Group of cisplatin alone and cisplatin plus paclitaxel in recurrent cervical cancer patients with the same initial performance (health) status (0-2).1 In that study, 12 month survival was presented as 35% for cisplatin alone and 32% for the combination and 18 month survival was presented as 20% for combination therapy and 12% for cisplatin, alone.
“The final 18 month survival outcome of 28% suggests that ADXS-HPV is an active treatment in recurrent cervical cancer. Achieving this promising 18 month survival with a single treatment cycle at the lowest effective dose, further suggests that higher doses and repeated cycles of immunotherapy might extend the lives of patients even further beyond the data presented here,” commented Dr. Robert Petit, Chief Scientific Officer of Advaxis. “To achieve this survival by giving an immunotherapy associated with only transient and low grade side effects in advanced cancer, supports that ADXS-HPV could provide an important new treatment option in the management of recurrent cervical cancer.”
Median overall survival in the Advaxis study was approximately 8.5 months which is indicative of the late stage of disease and baseline performance status of the patients. Those patients that completed the study will continue to be followed for survival. Survival results were not significantly different between treatment groups with or without cisplatin chemotherapy or who had previous therapy comprised of a combination of chemotherapy and radiation, radiation alone, or chemotherapy alone.
The tumor response rate was 11% with 6 complete responses and 6 partial responses/110 patients and was similar in both treatment groups per RECIST 1.1 criteria. Stable disease >3 months was observed in 35 additional patients, for a disease control rate of 43% (47/110). Average duration of response after 12 month minimum follow-up was 10.5 months for both treatment groups. In those patients treated with ADXS-HPV alone who had stable disease, the average duration of response was 6 months compared to 4.1 months in patients treated with ADXS-HPV plus cisplatin. Activity was observed against all high risk HPV strains detected, including 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45.
Subset analyses showed that the combination arm (addition of cisplatin to ADXS-HPV) did not significantly improve survival or tumor response; and survival and tumor response were equally strong in patients with aggressive disease (defined as recurrence =2 years from initial diagnosis) versus non-aggressive disease (defined as recurrence >2 years from initial diagnosis).
The tolerability of ADXS-HPV continues to compare favorably with single agent and combination chemotherapies active in this disease setting. 110 patients received 264 doses of ADXS11-001 at 1x109 cfu per dose. 42% (46/110) of patients experienced 104 mild-moderate Grade 1-2 adverse events and 2% (2/110) of patients experienced a serious adverse event (1 Grade 3 and 1 Grade 4) related/possibly related to ADXS11-001. This compares to published serious adverse event rates of 100%-400% related to treatment in studies on a range of chemotherapy regimens for cervical cancer.
Dr. Poonam Molli, Senior Scientist at Advaxis, will also present data on initial biomarker analysis of a subset of serum samples collected from patients in Lm-LLO-E7-15, pre- and post-dosing with ADXS11-001. Administration of ADXS11-001 immunotherapy resulted in increased expression of cytokines (IL6, IL-8, IL10, INF-? and TNF-a) and chemokines (MIP-1a, MIP-1ß and MCP-1) indicating activation of innate immunity. An association was also found between changes in the expression of cytokine and/or other serum factors and the severity of adverse events. These data may provide future screening tools to assist in predicting clinical efficacy and to monitor and manage side effects.
“We are pleased with the encouraging results and fully support continuing the path towards registration for our lead product candidate, ADXS-HPV, in invasive cervical cancer,” added Daniel J. O’Connor, Chief Executive Officer of Advaxis. “The completion of this study is a considerable step in demonstrating the potential of our technology to have a positive impact in an unmet medical need.”
These posters will be available on the Advaxis website at http://www.advaxis.com.
NBY - got very lucky! Had a bid to buy back all the shares I had sold which filled today @ 0.85 on the news (dropped from 1.70).
Fortunately, it did not fill much higher!
When I noticed the purchase in my car, I sold for .96 ... it is now .82!
COOL - I was suprised just now that 'Zumba World Party' had a brief mention on a TV/Sports along side Call of Duty.
It was in Spanish on Telemundo so I did not catch everything but they said something about no excuse not to exercise and they showed the cover art.
Pretty cool to run across some buzz like this just by chance!
We'll see what happens with the share price, but undoubtedly good news... even if revenue growth were to completely stop next month the current valuation could be cheap ... figure in the tremendous growth trend and the potential is quite amazing.
Very eager to see next earnings release!
FVRG - one of my best picks this year... was lucky to buy back in on the big dip a couple weeks ago. It's going to be very interesting to see the full financials.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forevergreen-worldwide-corporations-growth-continues-2013-11-04
OREM, Utah, Nov 04, 2013 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- ForeverGreen Worldwide Corporation (FVRG), a leading provider of nutritional foods and healthy products, today announced that the company is continuing to experience growth better than internal expectations.
Ron Williams, CEO, explained, "While several companies that are publicly traded in our industry have had sizeable success during 2013, we believe we have found the key to a seamless, truly global marketplace. The company is currently selling products in 144 countries; a number we believe is unparalleled in the industry. Many of the largest players in our industry, including those that have billions of dollars in sales, have not been able to achieve this level of diverse sales and interest. While the number of countries in which we transact business should not be considered the only measure of our success, it certainly leads to a much larger potential customer base than the majority of our competitors can target."
Mr. Williams continued, "We also are continuing to accelerate our distributor and customer base. During October, we grew nearly 70% over September. We achieved our highest number of monthly customers for our products, by far, in our history. This is one of the strongest leading indicators in our industry, and keeps us on track to hit our goal of doubling revenue and operating earnings during 2014."
The fog of war versus the fog of investing!
I'm not toooo worried that someone knows something we don't, but you never know!
I'll admit it ... I'm cheap with my broker!
They fixed the issue... no longer showing down 99% for the day!
Had a heart attack ... one of my brokers (firstrade) shows PLSB down 99% at the moment... I'm assuming everything is ok is this is not showing anywhere else.
COOL... picked some up at .60 today.
Malc - To read, digest, and evaluate what I've written will take many many hours ... that is very difficult given that you have a family, job and all your other interests! I get it! You've already provided more feedback than 99% of the folks I've shared it with (most could care less about philosophy), so I'm already very thankful!
On top of that, I'll continue to work on it for probably many more years so there is no rush!
ARNA ... it took me 3 weeks to look at COOL, but I'll try my best to take a peek ... after being so confused about the ADXS trial results and science, however, I'm not too comfortable with bios these days either!
When you think you'll have a chance to do some reading let me know and I'll send you an update. I've been in research mode the last few months so I've been developing my thoughts ever more deeply but not too much writing. I still think I'm on to something very unique, logically consistent, and important ... so I'm very eager to get feedback. The problem is that it's a very deep subject and requires some time investment from the reader ... the good news is I've had one other person read and based on the feedback the current draft is now easy to follow (given the depth). More importantly, the idea itself was very well-received.
Right now I'm working through this book ... playing music with your family sounds fun and really is the kind of thing life is all about!
http://www.amazon.com/Philosophy-Mind-Jaegwon-Kim/dp/0813344581/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1383537324&sr=1-1&keywords=jaegwon+kim
Thanks for the DD ... I took a look in IGN and confirmed Zumba dance is indeed one of the 'top' XBOX ONE releases (about 75 games).
Given improvements in Kinect 2.0 (which will now come with all XBOX machines) MS certainly is optimistic about motion-camera technology, so this game certainly seems 'at the right place at the right time' more ever than before (at least on the XBOX platform).
As the company made $11M profit in 2011 on Zumba 2.0, it seems reasonable they could do it again with World Party. The share price back then was $4 which makes the current 60 cents look pretty cheap.
I like also like the low liabilities relative to cash on hand. Dilution has been minimal and I like the work force reduction (although that could be interpreted as weakness depending how you look at it). Finally, I like that the trading has been boring ... the chart looks like a good entry.
In the end, I'm sold!! I'll probably look to pick up some shares next week...
Got it! Thanks for indulging my questions!
So what you are saying essentially is that the stock is over-valued based on fundamentals?
If so, I'm very open to see the assumptions/analysis/model, driving that conclusion ... we don't get enough of that type of discussion here, IMO. If so, please share!
(Or, if you are saying, that the stock must be over-valued on merits of the technicals, then I'd say without evidence that's purely speculation.)
Malc - yes, I admit I'm a little too serious some times!
I'm learning to appreciate, I think, your view (and probably most ohers) of this board is to be 'social', share new ideas and DD, but not to go very deep in challenging each other and wanting to be challenged ... this is part of my personality but I appreciate how it can also can lead to controversy, especially if diplomacy and humor are not applied!
I'll try to keep things a little 'lighter', make decisions based on my own DD, and avoid questions that are too critical unless solicited.
I'm always looking to improve myself, so I appreciate the subtle input!
COOL... I finally had a chance to take a quick look ... very intriguing pick!
I still need to look a little deeper but wondering if you've come across any quantative analysis about the potential revenues/profits and/or growth prospects? I understand such speculating is pretty fuzzy math but I'm just trying to get some sense of the potential...
At a quick look, I came across these numbers, but titles such as Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto are some of the most successful franchises and not the best comparsion.
http://www.examiner.com/article/select-video-game-titles-deliver-exponential-revenue-growth
Anyway, now that I'm back from vacation and things have settled down a little bit, I'll try to get back to doing some more detailed DD, including later taking a look to see any buzz for Zumba Fitness on IGN.com.
In the meantime, thanks again for sharing...
I'm confused by this post!
Where/what is this 'big math'? What is this 'extra value' that the big math excludes? How are these terms defined?
Are you referring to liquidation value of he company's current tangible assets (big math) versus the expected net present value of future (extra value) initiaties? If so, the key for all of us is the calculating the net present value of future expected returns but that is based on assumptions (the probabilities of various outcomes) so I'm afraid, theoretically speaking, there is no set answer.
JCP is convenient to our home and the mall nearby so I get my hair cut there. My patronage is a double bonus as I don't have a lot of hair so I'm not putting too much stress on the workforce...
Michael, I took a look at the numbers:
$2Billion net assets.
$1.8 Billion Annnual Loss
$1.6 Billion Marketcap.
If they could turn things around to, say, about $160M in profit that would put them at a PE of 10 but that valuation would be cheap as they would be on a good growth trajectory/recovery ... thus, if you think they can do better, then I think its a great investment.
If they could clawback to the $400M earnings of 2010, it would be a HUGE payoff. But if the downtrend in profits continue (or remain stable) then they will be in serious trouble.
As I've not studied in detail, I'm going to remain on the sidelines to either better-understand their cost/cutting growth strategies, see a bit of a turnaround next quarter, or wait for a lower shareprice ... very interesting contrarian play.
Ironically, we are going to JCP tonight...
Damn, 119 followers ... I love the disclaimer MY POSTS ARE ALWAYS OPINION which translates 'I could be lying so don't sue me'.
Bought back my shares today @ 1.11 ... I previously sold way too early and missed most of the big run so I will hold on a little tighter/longer this time!
Thanks for the details ... I'll try to take a look this week (hopefully it does not run before then).
We made the opposite mistakes recently ... I sold my FVRG too soon and missed a quadruple.
FVRG - Nearly a triple since my mention!
I've been personally really busy lately so just checking in to say 'hi'...
There has not been much exciting news to draw in new buyers but missed expectations (audit, vodwiz partners) is reason for folks to get nervous, impatient and/or concerned so I'm guessing someone with significant shares wants out.
Just repeating my sentiment but I see this investment as more or less a free lotto ticket ... the verifiable normal business operations justify the current share price (and then some at today's levels) but if we can get audit, VODWIZ partners, Mother Goose, etc etc, then Kaboomage!
With the work they've put into the company such as getting TITA to Enlish, minimal dilution, functioning VODWIZ beta, etc ... I'm optimistic their attempt is sincere.
I personally find the VODWIZ partner annoucement most frustrating/bewildering as I can appeciate how the audit could have involved a lot of unforeseen issues. Marketing folks, whom I've worked with many, are not experts on financial systems and almost always underestimate the complexity of executing such projects.
Fotis / HHSE - I don't understand all of these legal details, but seems on Sept 17 2013 a bankruptcy judge denied Fotis' claim against MFGI.
I'm not sure if/how this more broadly relevant to HHSE but thought it was interesting.
http://www.nysb.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/opinions/221511_7041_opinion.pdf
TDEY -- up big! I started looking into it and (again) hesitated as I wanted to better understand the details.
Thanks for mentioning it, JFF! We are lucky to have you here!!
If you know a investment approach that does not require ANY hope (there is zero uncertainty of an optimal outcome) please let us know!!
Better yet, please tell somebody so your approach could be published ... many fields in the social sciences would be certain to benefit from this method of knowledge that eliminates uncertainty!!
(In the meatime, I think that news about the NTEK posting is very interesting and relevent .. thanks JFF!)
Thanks for the reminder ... if I recall, HHSE reported $600K in revenues in Q4 2011, so potentially Lennon Bermuda might be as sucessful!
As per Moviesam, Turtle has been the number one accomplishment for delivering shareholder value ... given that the company has not issued significant shares and has been able to fund/continue operations/acqusitions it would seem Turtle must have contributed significantly to the business.
Or perhaps you feel, contrary to Moviesam, another revenue stream was even more significant than Turle?
I should have held for a much larger gain ... congrats and please keep the ideas flowing!
Your conclusion does not follow from the premise! Please don't mislead people by offering opinion/speculation as fact.
I wanted to thank you for the photo you posted a few days back ... been super busy so I'm just getting around to that now.
Incidentally, I was at Costco and they had 'Hubert's lemonade' so I bought some to compare. If you read the label, the ingredients and calories are very similar but Cabana still tastes WAY better! Hubert's taste was both very sweet and sour/bitter while Cabana had a more refreshing fruit flavor to it.
NTEK - congrats ... I've tried to trading it as well. Despite being successful overall, I certainly could have timed my trades better.
Bought at 2.8, sold some at 12 (yay), bought back at 9(boo), saw everything drop to 5(boo), and now we are back to 10 (yay)... makes me dizzy but huge gains if you traded it well.
FVRG - have to stop torturing myself and quit looking at it ... almost double since my purchase last week.
Historically, first and foremost, all the movies that have been placed (and will continue to be placed) into Walmart have, generated the most value IMO.
More recently, placements into Redbox (Zombie Wars, and if you believe the others that have been announced to follow).
I'll have to start a list of questions you guys don't like answering...
Which specific accomplishments do you think have created the most shareholder value?