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ino ... sold my shares from yesterday ... nice 24% gain in one day!
When investing in VODWIZ versus Netflix, how does the higher Netflix marketcap factor into your consideration, if at all?
Congrats to us!
My INO trade seems to have worked perfectly ... up a quick 9% (at least for now).
You were pretty hard on ADXS, if you are reconsidering please don't hesitate to share you thought even if -- like me -- you don't know what to think!
Picked up some shares on the dip... don't see any negative news.
ino ... don't see any negative news so bought some on the dip just now.
0.0033 would be an amazing shareprice .... Imagine that the company, despite the seemingly significant accelleration in releases, was only able to keep operating income at 1.15 million in 2014.
According to your formula:
TEV JAN 2015 = $1.9M + $1.15M 2014 Earnings = $3.05M
One year return = (3.05M/1.9M) - 1 = 60% return.
So, if I'm understanding correctly, your valuation technique expects a 60% annual increase (under the assumption that profits won't increase in 2014 from 2013).
I can't imagine wanting to invest in ANY company with those types of expectations.
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2013 annual report says Operating Income was $1.15 million. Let's use an industry multiple (being generous) and say that means the Total Enterprise Value (TEV) of the company is 8x that, or $9.2 million. Not bad!
EXCEPT that TEV is a sum of equity value plus net debt (debt less cash). So what does the annual report say about that?
$1.5k of cash
$7.3 million of debt
SO...net debt is $7.3 million. Subtract that from TEV to get your equity value:
$1.9 million, or 0.0033 per share.
Of course, as you know, there's also a strong likelihood it goes to zero.
If it's not worth the current share price, what do you think the stock is worth in terms of marketcap?
Given you think the stock is not worth the current share price, what do you think would be a reasonable market-cap valuation?
NTEK ... odd news ... on the one hand this agreement adds credibility as this further indication of independent verification of Nuvola. On the other hand, isn't this additional functionality quite last-minute to be implemented considering the manufacturing supposedly has already commenced?
Are HHSE, OUYA, NVIDIA, Ingram-Micro all part of the scam ... seems far-fetched. Yet, the delays on top of delays for both Nuvola and VODWIZ are certainly not comforting and reason for skepticism.
Still waiting for the HHSE end-game ... significant dilution/bankruptcy veruss audit and/or VODWIZ. HHSE still seems fair-value relative to the confirmed business, so I continue to hold.
EWSI ... 20% dip ... I've not been following the news too closely so I'm not sure if good buy at the moment? If no bad news lately then the chart looks pretty good.
Are they just working on the 2012 new releases or all 2012 sales, including items initially released previously?
So as all ball park number, what are you thinking the company is worth?
Exactly .. as Benjamin Graham said, in the short term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine.
That's the goal of value investing, right? To be invested where sentiment is poor relative to fundamentals... not easy some times!
FVRG ... is now profitable with excellent growth ... I still need to look into Michael's question about employees but I've had ZERO spare time the last few months.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61630668&symbol=FVRG
If I did not have already shares, I was thinking the same. A guy could probably make a living at this ... most of the time it seems to work out this way.
1. Wait for dilution announcment.
2. Wait for panic, disappointment and price drop.
3. Buy shares.
4. Sell shares a week or so later once the panic subsides.
Depends what you think is a better predictor of future volume and price.
1. Past volume and price.
2. Fundmenatals & Upcoming Catalysts.
No market reaction to the news ... guess the market is not impressed as the funding company itself is small and it's for animals, not humans. It remains to be seen if this only means we are ahead of the curve in seeing where things are going.
Some might be thinking 'even with good news this stock isn't going anywhere' but it's the opposite ... if market does not react to good news, then perhaps the stock is mispriced, which is what investing is all about!!
Very interesting ... Aranta is not a huge company so they seem to be betting big on ADXS.
Great news about those results!
INO ... sold some (again) today $3.70 ... considering many swing-trades, my original buys at $0.51 and $0.54, and that I put down a decent chunk, INO is by-far my best gainer.
As some important trial results are due this year, not sure how much I will hold.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Inovio+Pharmaceuticals+%28INO%29+Price+Target+Lifted+to+%246+at+Maxim+Group/9290931.html?si_client=st
Loving it!
Sold MCZ ... nice gain over 4 months.
ORT.TO / EORBF ... not dead.
Orbite Announces 10M$ Equity Investment by the Government of Quebec
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61294441&symbol=EORBF
Just makes me wonder if AMY, with their somewhat similar innovation, would have proven themselves if they received the $$$. Hopefully ORT can get things done...
By market acceptance, do you mean -- in the case of Canada at least --government acceptance?
That's what we need but unfortunately I've not been able to get any good information about how the process typically works in the case of approving new medical tests for coverage by government insurance. Otherwise, what average Joe would even know to ask for this test at the doctor office (let alone be willing to pay) ... if/when this binary event of insurance coverage occurs, it's boom time ... but nobody seems to know how likely or unlikely this would be or what are the steps of the process are for approval.
Have not had much time to post lately but I'm still very much watching ... I'm so used to just waiting and waiting, I'm both eager and numb at the same time!
Yes, the more we can learn the better ... the marketcap is so low that other than near bankruptcy (which certainly does not seem the case) confirmation of even one of their initiatives would be very bullish in terms of fundamental value.
Awesome to see TITA will actually be on the shelves ... I bet it will do very well.
Glen - thanks so much for diving into the details and sharing!
For investors adjusting expectations based on market cap, it is pretty amazing!!
Or are you not considering market cap?
Yes, that what's I'm saying, but I'm also saying -- from an investor perspective -- good and bad are relative terms when comparing netflix to HHSE.
A movie to be good for Netflix shareholders would have to be a higher caliber than HHSE shareholders.
It's similar that what might seem like a bad movie at Walmart for Disney shareholders could be a great movie for us. It's always relative to marketcap.
Ok ... how good of a movie is needed, specifically, how much revenue?
Given there is little upfront investment, the beauty is that we do NOT necessarily NEED good movies on VODWIZ ... it's a low risk venture. Keep in mind the stock price is not up very much since VODWIZ annoucement, so current shareholders are not paying a shareprice premium based on VODWIZ.
HOWEVER, if VODWIZ does turn out to have some movies that people think are good enough to watch, I would think the potential is massive ... you always have to keep in mind that HHSE marketcap is very low such that what would be a small viewership for Netflix would be huge for us HHSE investors!
In other words, a viewership considered a huge failure at Netflix could still be a huge sucesss for HHSE ... thanks low marketcap and no fixed upfront investment cost of VODWIZ!!
I've never heard of any credit card fraud from using such a service. They have to have pretty good security as otherwise the negative publicity would destroy redbox ...
MIN.V/EXMGF - on sale ... just take a look at the prefeasibility numbers and the good location for permitting!
We agree ... folks aren't (and have not been) buying based on the good news, which is why we are under-valued!
Glad I don't own some over-priced stock!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_investing
Margins tend to mean-revert over time, so this is really bullish!
Below is some links to the concern over the opposite scenario ... that too high of margins are difficult to sustain. We have the opposite case!
http://dumbmoney.tumblr.com/post/45917121508/profit-margin-mean-reversion-doesnt-mean-lower
Keep in mind HHSE is not like some assembly line that efficiency is gained by squeezing more out of workers ... it's a very dynamic business with different channels, each movie has a different popularity level, etc, so it would be kind of dumb not to expect margin volatility.
Thanks for the second pair of eyes! I definately want to look into any potential issues ... hopefully I'll have some time tonight and will get back to you.