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True, we all made the mistake of investing in ADXS, which was our decison, but the company would likely not be in the desparate financial postion it is in today if OConnor has not have wasted all the cash he spent spreading the company too thin instead of focusing on value in the Amgen deal. Its possible Amgem cut the cord in part because ADXS blew through the $65 million upfront givem to them thinking Amgen would further subsidize the company prematurely after wasting the cash trying to partner with others on first gen contrusts and HOT.
Except there is no evidence of what you amd gold are saying, but there is evidence that we just lost our only paying partner and have no paying partner for HOT or AXAL and very little imvestor interest in the company as evidenced by the terrible terms of the last raise.
Berlin indicated deals unlikely until data is seen in 2019. By that time, the company may no longer be in business if it runs out of cash since we know there will be no Amgen milestone payments.
An entity should buy the company for $0.50 which is an arbitage play since cash on the balance sheet pays for itself, then fire all the employees and sell the IP to the highest bidder (which unfortunately wouldnt be much given the lack of BP interest in the platform).
"For now, we suffer the paper loss"
Right, deteriorating from a $1 billion market cap to less than $20 million not even the value of cash on the balance sheet is just a paper loss. It reflects nothing fundamental about the company's clinical program or future. Keep telling yourself that.
In an unfortunate sense, it is kind of a relief selling, even at a large loss, because now it is clear the game is almost over as the company has very few, if any, options to remain in business. After two years of trying to partner our first generation constructs and HOT, there have been no takers, none, and now we learn that our life line and ONLY monetary partnership was terminated. So we are trading at half cash value. Even the toxic financiers may take pause to give the company more money now given how things have deteriorated beyond belief and it is apparent now that it is not just a management thing but also a result of the value of the science.
It's over guys. Denial is a powerful force, and I see some are still trying to make a positive spin on this. It's pretty clear at this point the science and data have fallen short of expectations. I feel like an idiot, should have seen the writing on the wall in the spring of 2017 when Astra passed on partnering with ADXS on a Phase 3 combo trial. Since then, things have gone downhill. ADURO failed a trial and it's LLM partner pulled the plug. We've had two CEOs. Merck has not stepped up to partner on PSA, and our single monetary deal has now been terminated. Amgen has had a front row seat evaluating our science and decided it wasn't worth it. It's been a very painful learning experience, although some still seem to have not learned. No one is going to partner or give ADXS more money now. Best case scenario they sell the company for cash value, which is around $0.60 a share, but history tells us that management won't give up their salaries and perks that quickly, so they'll milk the cash to nothing then, like at ROSG, Berlin will announced either bankrupcy or a sale for say $10 million with a comment of something along the lines of "We have explored all options and there is not much of a market now for LLM based immunotherapies given the rapid advancement of the sector and competitions from other more promising platforms. This is the best option we have for shareholders." Life goes on. GLTA
If ADXS declares bankrupry Amgen would get NEO without payimg a dime in the $500m milestones. I think ADXS could find a buyer for at least $100m which netting out cash is around $2 a share, because the buyer would get an option on $500m plus all of ADXS' other constructs.
You're right. The language below is from Glassdoor. So what are the chances that "Here To Fight Scams" wrote the December 2018 Glassdoor negative comment on ADXS to provide fresh content that he referenced in his post here? He did say he sold ADXS at a loss so he has an interest in anything negative about the company to keep the price down to justify his ale. If true, one might argue THAT is a scam.
"At Glassdoor, we aim to verify as much of our data as possible. Considering the reality of our digital age, however, we're unable to fully confirm our users' identities, the truthfulness of their contributions, or their employment status."
The December 2018 Glassdoor review from an ADXS employee validates what many on this board have thought: that the ADXS platform and science is strong, but that management has done a poor job and lost credibility in the marketplace. Recently, I was beginning to doubt the science since I am not qualified on that front and seeing the market valuation saying the company is worth zero. This insider at the company who has a front row view of what is going on argues the science remain very promising but that management has been the factor driving the company into the ground. The question is, is the science strong enough to turn around the company despite management.
What's your take on the unbelievable fall of this company? I always thought the platform was impressive and the clinical data thus far solid, but I don't have a science background. I am having a hard time understanding the amount of value the company has lost to a valuation literally below cash. That's not just poor management. It reflects the value and demand for the science. I wonder if ADXS were ever subject to a case study if it would be put in the category of a scam given more that $200 million has been poured into the company and it's evaporated, yet the company has always touted that the clinical trial data has been compelling.
Locking in $100 million upfront in exchange for less on the back end would be preferable to another dilution on unfavorable terms.
Are you clueless? The company is valued at zero (less than cash on the balance sheet) and heading toward bankruptcy, yet you want it to go lower.
It is hard to believe ADXS is literally trading lower than cash value in a year when biotech has been in favor and raising cash at record levels. I always had a problem with the self-serving and inefficient way the company was managed and burnt through cash under O'Connor's leadership, and thought the change of management would be a positive catalyst. It's a bitter pill to swallow now when the market valuation of the company is literally zero - that goes beyond management and reflects demand for the science. I have always thought the science was the silver lining that would make the company successful, but I have no scientific background so perhaps many of us overestimated it, particularly as the field has gotten more competitive and immunotherapy in general more effective. We have plenty of data so far, two Phase 2s on AXAL plus trial data on combo AXAL and PSA, but no one has stepped up and partnered with us on AXAL or PSA. Astra Zeneca passed on the opportunity, and we are still collaborating with Merck but they have yet to see anything that compels them to step up and partner in a monetary deal. We have all said at the end of the day, it's about the science. Well we are a late stage company now so we have the data, the question is, why has no one (besides Amgen with NEO) stepped up and partnered on our other constructs in which we have the most data and trial advancement? The market valuation and lack of anyone stepping up to partner until they "see more data" is saying the data to date has not been good enough. That's a harsh reality that I thought I would never have to say. I thought we would have locked in a partner now for AXAL and HOT, so the longer we go without one, it is looking more that the market is right in valuing our platform at nothing. Hopefully, that changes soon, because if it doesn't, ADXS won't have any more money to sustain its operations, in which Agmen I'm sure through its contract would get all of NEO for nothing (if ADXS declared bankrupcy). If the company gets a look at early NEO and HOT data and it looks more promising than the current 1st generation science that we have not been able to partner, things could change very quickly. Hopefully that happens before the company runs out of money or is forced into more death spiral financing.
Well, at least things are going well for companies in the biotech sector.
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Moderna IPO Raises Over $600 Million in Rocky Market
Biotech company’s offering prices at midpoint of expected range in a sign of resiliency for an otherwise turbulent stock market
Moderna’s listing is expected to be one of the last big IPOs of the year.
Moderna’s listing is expected to be one of the last big IPOs of the year.
By Corrie Driebusch and
Jonathan D. Rockoff
Updated Dec. 6, 2018 9:09 p.m. ET
Moderna Inc. staged one of the biggest initial public offerings for a biotechnology company late Thursday, a bright spot in an otherwise tumultuous market.
Moderna sold 26.3 million of its shares at $23 apiece Thursday, in line with pricing expectations on the eve of its trading debut. The offering’s size was bigger than expected, raising $604.3 million and valuing the company at roughly $7.5 billion.
The listing is expected to be one of the last big IPOs in a year that has ushered in more than 200 new listings, raised more than $58 billion and is set to be the busiest since 2014. Pricing within range and increasing the offering bode well for the resiliency of the IPO market even as sharp stock swings have become more common.
The next test will be how Moderna’s shares trade. They are set to make their stock-market debut Friday on the Nasdaq Global Market under the stock symbol MRNA.
Moderna, which has been one of the most highly valued startups in health care, is trying to develop a new kind of drug and vaccine using the body’s own cellular machinery to protect against or even fight off disease.
The Cambridge, Mass., company and its underwriters are betting investors will be drawn to the promise of its messenger RNA technology to bring new treatments for cancer, heart and other diseases. Partners include AstraZeneca PLC, Merck & Co. and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Biotech BoomThis year is set to be the second-biggest onrecord for U.S. biotech and pharmaceuticalIPOs, as measured by money raised.Source: DealogicNote: All years are through Dec. 4.
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Yet Moderna also has been dogged by doubts about whether it can realize its promise. The fears were initially fueled by the company’s reticence to say much publicly about its research.
Critics also worry that Moderna’s programs remain relatively unproven, since they are still in the earlier stages of clinical testing. And critics expressed concerns about Moderna’s high cash-burn rate and lofty valuation amid recent choppiness in the broader stock market.
Before it has even started trading, Moderna’s IPO has generated some controversy. On Tuesday, the company said it dropped an underwriter because the firm made “unauthorized communications” about the offering, Moderna disclosed in a securities filing.
Moderna’s operating expenses in 2017 topped $475 million, while its revenue—from collaborations and grants—totaled just over $200 million. Only a small percentage of drugs and treatments are ultimately approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Moderna has 21 drug and vaccine research programs, including 10 that have progressed beyond the laboratory and are being tested in humans.
“In general, we’re enthusiastic about the company, but they have some stuff they need to prove out,” said Michael Caldwell, a fund manager at Driehaus Capital Management LLC who has followed Moderna over the years. His fund has decided to not participate in the IPO and will instead take a wait-and-see approach toward some of Moderna’s treatments before diving in.
Several other portfolio managers who focus on biotech also said they plan to sit out the Moderna offering. They asked not to be named because they don’t want to hurt relationships with bankers and the company, in which they said they would consider investing in the future.
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It has been a banner year for biotech offerings.
Through Tuesday, 60 biotech and pharmaceutical companies have listed shares in the U.S., raising roughly $6.4 billion, according to Dealogic. That is the second-biggest year on record and the most since 2014, when 80 companies raised just over $7 billion in the same period, according to Dealogic, whose data go back to 1995.
How Moderna performs in its share-trading debut could help shape the fate of the broader biotech market for months to come.
If such a large, eagerly anticipated offering that has the support of established drugmakers doesn’t trade well, it could erode confidence in a sector that is prone to swift swings.
Biotech shares were on a tear earlier this year, with the Nasdaq Biotechnology index up about 14% at the end of August. Since then, performance has waned; as of Thursday, the index was up 0.2% for 2018. The deluge of companies coming to market, many of are in very early stages with no clear path to drug approvals, has worried some analysts and investors who say that is often a symptom of froth.
There has never been any bad news concerning ADXS - just the usual PPS take down into oblivion "because this company sucks."
Funny,I assume you are being sarcastic saying there has never been any bad news, unless you honestly think fiscal mismanagement, an unsustainable burn rate and lack of a focused strategy for four years, then a BOD acting too late sitting on its hands for a year without a succession plan wasting time with a do-nothing interim CEO that led to two dilutions on our worst ever terms and a 80% loss in our market value is not bad news.
Hov, your point on peer comparison market value points to how important solid management of a company is to its valuation. ADXS has been so poorly managed over the last several years that the market is valuing us literally at nothing, from DOC's spaghetti strategy spending money like it grew on trees and keeping for himself more than his fair share to the Board sitting on its feet without a plan for a year after firing O'Connor while putting in place a lame duck interim CEO who was well past his prime and content doing very little until retirement. This cost the company and its investors an enormous amount of value destruction, such that now the company has lost trust with investors hence the terrible terms ADXS has earned with the market now in capital raises. I think at this point it would be more damaging to continue kicking the can down the road with another highly unfavorable capital raise than to go ahead and sell the company outright to the highest bid. Based on how low our valuation has dropped and terms of the latest dilution, the market is looking back at the money put in ADXS' since 2013 and concluded the company is not capable of managing itself independently in a way that even remotely creates value for the investors who are footing the bill. Either Amgen or Merck would be a natural buyer of the company. Given the $500m Amgen NEO deal and other franchises of the company, mainly HOT which could be paired with a PD1, I think a realistic sale price of the company is somewhere in the range of on the low end $250m to the high end $500m (which equates to a share price, fully diluted net of cash, in the range of around $3.5 to $6.50).
Positive development, as it appears Dafna is a biotech specialist investment manager.
Amgen opened up its wallet upfront to the tune of $65 million. That's real money. It took so long for the first patient to be dosed because of O'Connor's incompetence. That's entirely different than a scam. Moreover, if it was a scam O'Connor would have dumped shares when the stock was in the $20s and hit $30, but he didn't. He believed in the company but didn't have the experience or discipline or right strategy to manage the company and its finances.
Of course no mention that the majority of the cash goes toward the trials rather than salaries and bonuses.
Right, Amgen often invests in scams. Amgen gave ADXS $65 million upfront and valued one of the company's franchises at $500 million because it like supporting scams.
I think there is a decent chance we will see a buyout in the next few months since Berlin blew our last wad on the worst ever capital raise using the remains shelf. IMO high end price for a buyout $5 to $6, but more likely $3 to $4 unfortunately.
Hearing the conference call, I was thinking the same thing, that they potentially could have a partner contigent on getting the FDA agree to an earlier than planned interim read-out. The HOT platform is also up for a potential partner(s). At a certain point, I would think it would make sense for either Amgen or Merck to buy the company outright given the market is valuing the technology at nothing. An entity could put a bid in to buy the entire company for $300 million ($4 a share on a fully diluted basis net of cash) giving them a deal valued at $475 million in potential milestones plus all the rest of the technology and IP. And they would have a chance of getting it through. Ideally, no one invested in this company envisioned a buyout price that low, but given where we are and the value destruction, I don't think the company or shareholders could stop it from going through. Better than the alternative of continuing to kick the can down the road with terrible extremely dillutive capital raise terms.
And they just locked in three year grants that will vest immediately in a change of control. Nothing to hold up things now. A company with a $500m deal with Amgen, plus the HOT platform and AXAL should at least be able to commamd $500m in an outright sale, which is a better alternative than continuing to kick the can down the road with more dilution at a low valuation.
Well, around six weeks ago the market didn't have a very optimistic view on the fish oil company, AMRN, but since then the stock moved up 600% which ran counter to intuition, experience, fact and opportunity.
I wonder if they have a partner contingent on getting the FDA sign off for a readout earlier than planned. This idea and development came from somewhere.
Agreed that AXAL is not worth $500 million or we would have already found a partner willing to pay even a fraction of that and Berlin wouldn't have threatened to shut down the program. However, Amgen believes that NEO is worth up to $475 million in milestones payments, which a reason I continue to hold. Also, it will be telling to see who ADXS partners with on HOT. Personally, I'd be surprised if they are able to strike deals with each individual HOT construct. It's more likely that an entity would want licensing rights for the whole HOT platform similar to Amgen's deal with ADXS on HOT. NEO is the personalized neoantigen platform whereas HOT is the shared off-the-shelf neoantigen platform. I read the attached article on neoantigens over the weekend, worth a read. The space looks very promising. I think the natural suitors for HOT are either Amgen or Merck (Amgen to lock down rights to all of ADXS' neantigen platform, or Merck to access an enhancing technology to Keytruda and also buy rights to a $475 million deal with Amgen). We'll see, hopefully soon enough.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5742119/
The time is ripe for pharmas looking for promising late-stage biotechs like ADXS to boost their aging platforms that are facing patent cliffs. Also, for Merck to stay in the lead in the PD1 market which is getting more competitive and crowded, buying ADXS could give Keytruda, when combined with our platform, an edge over the competition. Is is a coincidence that Berlin recently announced that ADXS has decided to stop enrolling patients in our Astra combo trial and also decided not to move forward with our planned Phase 3 combo trial with Bristol while at the same time announcing our first HOT trial will be in combination with Keytruda? Time will tell.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/biotech-ma-will-2018-surge-last/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-01/merck-earnings-keytruda-success-can-be-dangerous
I find it interesting that Berlin said the company is no longer continuing the cervical combo trial with Astra and also decided not to initiate the phase 3 cervical combo trial with Bristol. At the same time, our first HOT trial is with Merck. Perhaps any surprise deal or buyout will be with Merck.
Anger at Berlin is misplaced. He is doing everything he can to turn around the company. The overly generous non-performance based RSU policy was put in place in 2015, so if anyone O'Connor is to blame, as well as Sidratsky who has overseen the destruction of shareholder value this entire time from rubber stamping O'Connor to standing flatfooted without a succession plan after firing O'Connor. Frankly, at this point these additional non-cash grants should motive Berlin even more to turnaround the company and salvage shareholder value, because if not his grants will be worthless. Looking forward to developments with potential AXAL and HOT partnerships in the coming months.
Hope you are right. He was confident about the future and had made positive moves to tighten and focus the company's spending. But fyi selling shares for cash at any price is not non-dilutive financing.
Amgen already has a $475m deal on ALL NEO indications, so there will be no other deals on NEO, just potential milestone payments.
Someone asked a question about the timing of the HOT program and Berlin and the CMO made comments indicating that depending on a number of factors they could potentially launch HOT for prostate cancer in 2019 if it makes sense (instead of 2020 which is the time the press release said it would be pushed back to). I interpreted this to potentially mean if the combo PSA data with Keytruda to be released in 1H19 is solid, Merck could step up with a monetary partnership that escalates the start of the HOT trial on prostate.
I've been wrong about ADXS the last two years and lost a lot of money because of it. Hopefully, we'll be able to recoup some of the losses moving forward, as Berlin turns the company around and rights the reckless fiscal mismanagement of the past.
I agree, this is great news today. I am glad the Phase 3 is still in progress and there is optimism it is going well. It would not have been good if it were shut down, considering all the money we/investors have put in the company over the last number of years to fund the program.
Sorry Dew, the Phase 3 continues, no one is right about everything.
Agreed Donjay, hoping for the best.
We can thank Daniel J. O'Connor for four years of recklessly burning through more than $200 million while padding his own pockets for the doom and gloom investors/the market have priced in the current price. What's the expression, "once bitten, twice shy."
Me as well, thoughts and prayers for the company and its shareholders that a positive development will be announced tomorrow to start a turnaround and recovery of the stock.
Per below, Amgen's interested in it. Not sure why they don't just buy the entire company now given how we're valued at nothing.
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Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) is a species of bacteria with attributes that give it great potential as an immunotherapy vector.
In the body, Listeria are taken up by the immune system’s antigen-presenting cells (APCs), where they have a unique ability to escape the APC’s normal defenses and replicate.
Scientists are harnessing these attributes by engineering a weakened strain of Listeria that functions as an immunotherapy vaccine. The bacteria used in the vaccine are designed to expresses tumor-associated antigens, which are processed by the APC’s’ immune machinery and presented to T cells. This primes the T cells to recognize and attack other cells that present the same antigens. The vaccine can also be personalized to express specific tumor-associated antigens found in individual patients. Listeria-based immunotherapy is still an investigational modality, but encouraging results have been observed in early-stage clinical studies.
Amgen is collaborating with Advaxis to develop ADXS-NEO, an immunotherapy platform that combines Advaxis’ Lm-based antigen delivery system with a second novel technology called MINE™ (My Immunotherapy Neo-Epitopes). The Listeria used in ADXS-NEO are engineered to include DNA plasmids that produce the same tumor neo-antigens – mutated protein fragments – found in a patient’s tumor cells but not in healthy cells. Once injected into the patient, the Listeria are taken up by antigen-presenting cells, or APCs (1), where the bacteria secrete tumor-associated antigens into the liquid interior of the APC (2). The antigens are then processed and presented to T cells (3). The goal is to help T cells recognize a wide range of tumor-associated antigens and attack cancer cells with the same antigens (4).
Pure FUD, he's calling deferred revenue debt, which it's not.
Unfortunately, this has nothing to do with market manipulation. The market is simply responding to whether the company's platform is strong enough to attract a partner willing to put skin in the game on AXAL or any of the HOT constructs. So far, across the last three CEOs, there have been no takers, which is why the market is responding the way it has. The market was overly generous in giving the company more than $200 million of capital - just look how that ended with O'Connor burning through it with little to show. One could argue the company and O'Connor manipulated investors by recklessly spending their cash and paying themselves unearned compensation leaving investors with next to nothing. I feel like an idiot and have myself to blame for staying in the stock and continuing to believe in the platform.