Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I wouldn't think you would want that now because they most they'd likely get is around a buck.
Four potential scenarios for "news" during the upcoming conference call:
1) a development deal with substantial upfront cash similar to the original Amgen NEO deal that gets ADXS back up over $1 and the reverse split is called off (best case scenario)
2) no material news is announced, only that the company is lining up new investor funding and they announce the ratio for the reverse split.
4) the company announces a reverse merger in which ADXS mergers with another entity like Aduro at the current valuation, which eliminates the need for a reverse split as ADXS would become part of another, better managed company, albeit at the current low valuation.
5) the company makes the announcement that unfortunately they have not found any interest from new investors to raise capital, even factoring in the higher price after the reverse split, so they have decided to call off the reverse split, issue a one time dividend equal to current cash on hand (but not before paying management their golden parachute checks) and then quietly proceed to wind down operations (worst case scenario).
You posted not long ago you were just looking for an out above the $0.20s. You have it now. The question is whether to sell now or hold out for a higher price which comes with the risk that after the RS it could be shorted down below the $0.20s pre-split. No advice from me, just an observation.
Hopefully you take advantage of yesterday's overbought overvalued price as an opportunity to unload some shares.
It's not only poor management that causes a late stage biotech to lose more than 90%of its value to drop to an enterprise value of zero. The market, confirmed by Amgen's termination, doesn't think the science and data are good enough over standard of care and competing treatments in development.
Good news, the biotech sector is hot, but it is actually bad news for ADXS, because as Eli steps up with its wallet buying Loxo for $8 billion, Amgen recently stepped down with its wallet terminating its ADXS NEO development deal as it does not think the platform is even $500 million. We bet on the wrong horse, that simple.
Said another way, like you I lost a lot of money investing in ADXS, so I have opinions on the current state of the company. I could be wrong now if the company makes a miraculous turnaround, but believe it is unlikely and feel that expressing the alternative view to the views that the company is still worth "multi billion" could prevent future losses of new investors not as familiar with the company.
Batermere, your son deserves the full range of opinions regarding the future of the company and investment value he has in the company.
Jesspro, while the company trial data has not shown any definitive "trial failure" to date, the more important question from an investment perspective IMO is, "has the company trial data in aggregate as judged by investors and potential partners produced compelling evidence of data GOOD ENOUGH above the current standard of care OR above other competing platforms in development that point to commercial success." Given the 90% drop in the value of the company, Amgen terminating its development deal and no takers to partner on AXAL, the evidence is that investors do not believe the platform will emerge as viable improvement to cancer treatment compared to the current treatments available and more importantly other treatments in development. Successful companies generally are able to raise new capital at increasingly more attractive terms, while ADXS is in a situation where it is having do do another reverse split and raise capital on terms worse than it ever has historically, even though the company is late-sate with no conclusive trial failures. Judge for yourself, what does this say about the future potential of the company's platform? Perhaps the trial data has not been good enough, but no "trial failures" gives management a runway to continue paying themselves generously while investor capital withers away as it has.
IMO it's a defense mechanism deflecting accountability of the performance of ADXS saying one is on the side of patients. That's like claiming when it started to become clear pets.com was failing in 2000 that one was on the side of pets and their owners. The reality is if ADXS fails it is because in aggregate they have not shown evidence the platform helps patients more than other competing technologies (so the more intellectually honest thought is "I'm on the side of patients so I wish I had invested in the cancer immunotherapy that is on track to make it to the finish line and help patients."
That's nice you won't settle for anything less than a buyout that is more than 10x the current price. Unfortunately, the problem is that any entity could purchase ADXS for as little as $1 but has chosen not to because it's doubtful the platform has much much commercial value. If it did, Amgen would not have cut its losses and terminated its development deal with ADXS.
True, but regardless it points to their lack of their confidence in the future of NEO.
Agreed, pumping false hope at this point is deceitful and irresponsible. Amgen's decision that loosing $65 million it already gave to ADXS is a better option than further investment in the company speaks volumes of ADXS' platform's future potential.
It reflects the weak position the company is in: a 55% return today but the stock is still down 90% over the last year. The company started from blank slate four years ago, attracting $250m but since then lost 95% in shareholder value, with almost all institutional holders bailing culminating in the company's only monetary partner deciding the platform was not worth further investment. Four years ago the company got a second chance and since then the data has fallen. Now's the runway is simply for management to squeeze the last drop out of the lemon while retail penny flippers do their thing. The company's no longer an institutional investment except for toxic financing from folks like CVI.
This is why companies like ADXS get accused of being scams. As fundamentals of the company deteriote and institutional investors leave as we have seen, management and the BOD make once last effort to line their pockets and fleece retail investors before announcing all options have been exhausted and either bankrupcy or a fire sale happens.
CIN trial under Tom Moore.
Poor management didn't help but at the end of the day the company valuation reflects the science. If the science and platform (and early NEO data which Amgen has seen) held promise for success, Amgen wouldn't have bailed after sinking $65 million in ADXS.
At this point, the market valuation of this late stage company is a result of the fundamentals, the science falling short of expectations. Amgen bailing was a huge tell regarding the probability that ADXS' platform will be successful.
James, it's not a matter of anyone hoping the company will fail, but rather the collective trial data and lack of interest from Big Pharma in ADXS' platform point to the probably that the company will fail because the technology is not good enough relative to other companies with more promising treatment options. I was invested for years hoping the company would succeed, but now especially after Amgem bailing and ADXS not finding any other monetary partners after two year of looking points to much lower chances of success.
Exaclty, Petit has little to loose by exaggerating the promise of the platform (which investors think is worthless), but he has a lot to loose (his overpaid comp and job) if the company did the right thing returning cash to investors and shutting down.
The ego is a fragile thing. Do you think Petit would ever acknowledge that's his life's work for the last 8 years might not be all he's cooked it up to be? Amgen decided as much.
Well Amgen does not think the NEO platform has tremendous potential or else it would not have severed the partnership. And imvestors certainly do not think the platform has tremendous potential or else they would not value the company at zero.
James, I don't see how you think things are still going ok and the company continues to hold promise. Their only paying partner bailed, they can't find a partner on any other construct and the company's value net of cash is zero. The science has spoken and its not worth anything.
Amgen could have a policy that they maintain any stock position they have in a company as long as the partnership is in place, which would mean they will sell in February when it is officially severed.
Agreed Tj. The bottom line is Amgen bailing on ADXS was a devastating fundamental blow and likely means the NEO program is not going well and no longer holds the promise once thought...despite how folks try to spin it.
They demand warrants and likely immediately dump their shares after the offering and short the stock down while keeping the warrants so they benefit if the long shot chance happens that the stock goes up over time.
This is a more horrific reverse split and terms than 2013, because now the company is late stage, has burned through more than $250 million while literally destroying over 90% of shareholder value and its only payimg partner lost confidence in the platform and bailed. Moreover 2013 through 2015 the biotech market was hot, now we are at the tail end of the bull market with stocks. I really think the company should return the remaining cash left to investors and quietly shut down, because the only ones that will likely benefit from this reverse split is management sustaining their inflated compensation without any tie to value creation.
Low quality toxic finance types like CVI, as it is unlikely high quality funds like Adage would invest, especially after Amgen bailed and the company has not been able to partner any other constructs.
Exaclty, that's the reason 70% of the company is owned by retail, and most of the 30% institutional ownership is index funds that buy the entire market so it's not really institutional ownership. At this point, given Adxs' track record of burning through capital with no value delivered, the compnay is "uninvestable" from an institutional perspective, with the only ones stepping up being toxic financiers like CVI.
"unless the science was stellar"
That suns it up. If our clinical had been more impressive, the company would not be in the desparate position it is in today and would have a much higher valuation. Biotech is binary with "winner take all" outcomes and unfortunately ADXS did not deliver the goods.
Blue, at the end of the day it's only money, so maybe you have to work a little longer than planned before you retire. There is a lot to be thankful for beyond ADXS. The market is driven by fear and greed, and unfortunately you as well as many of us put a lot in ADXS due to greed. At the end of the day we made a bad investment. I think along the way the problem was amid all the one sided optimism and pumping from you and many of us we forgot about the risk and we have no one to blame for that but ourselves.
Raising new capital at the current market cap of basically zero is part of the death equation of current holders, as new capital is extremely dilutive to current holders.
Agree with Tj. For those who have bought since 2013 (the last recap and reverse split) the average cost basis over that period is around $10 give or take. So looking at your example of the last post reverse split run from $3 to $30, that's a 10x return. Now, if we get the low end 10 to 1 reverse split, a $0.20 current ADXS becomes a $2 stock, then if things go well and its a 10x return from there it's a $20 stock but split adjusted it's still just $2, which is a 80% loss if you've bought over the last several years at a $10 cost basis.
As much has the company has been mismanaged, Berlin has limited blame given the lack of focus and high burn rate he inherited was all O'Connor. Also, at this point the company is late stage so has produced a significant amount of data the market and partners has absorbed, which has resulted in the promise of the platform falling short if expectation (and Aduro pretty much ended their LLM trials). The fact ADXS' only paying partner and ADROs LLM partner bailed coupled with ADXS not able to find a partner for AXAL or PSA reflects demand (lack thereof) for the science and platform. That's a hard pill to swallow for those of us who have thought despite poor management the science would win.
True it may be too early to get significant information, but it's likely if the initial immune response activity had met or exceeded Amgens expectations for data "at that stage" they would not have bailed on the partnership this early.
Exaclty, current shareholders have been wiped out unfortunately, but Ken created a runway for management compensation even though the market and partners think the chances of success of the platform are low.
Well, if its the same data Amgen has seen on NEO, I expect the ratio will be at the high end.
Good luck if you think that will happen again. Since then the company destroyed $250m in capital and just lost its only payimg partner.
There's your answer in the filing. Sorry you were wrong. I stayed optimistic on this company way too long as well.
You don't call a 25 to 1 reverse split massive? I guess that's the same logic of "Even though the stock has dropped from $3 to $0.20 this year, the selling pressure could have been worse."