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Exactly, why no interest in AXAL, HOT or PSA in terms of a pharma striking a deal with ADXS. Either poor management or simply the collective LLM data has not been good enough or both.
Yes, but simply evaluating a term sheet means little since the terms could be like their other cashless deals with no skin in the game. If they had serious deals on the table with upfront cash, they wouldn't have to a a reverse split and raise highly dillutive capital like they intend to do.
Agreed, their track record is such that they will continue to spend with or without a partner and figure out how to pay for it later, to the detriment of shareholders. Like others I made the mistake of thinking the BOD would not have fired O'Connor unless they had a succession plan already in place to create value. Boy was I wrong, a costly mistake. The mentality seems to be, "as long as our paychecks are coming, we will spend freely without much thought and recycle shareholders as value erodes to sustain the payroll all while reiterating we believe in the potential of LLM."
At this point, Berlin knows he can't attract quality investors and shareholder value has evaporated more than 90%, so the compnay really has nothing to loose by continuing to attract toxic financing as long as it sustain high management comp. They will dance until the music stops and they no longer can get toxic financing to fund salaries. Unfortunately, the music already stopped for investors.
....for a massive reverse split and mother of all dilutions that will make it nearly impossible for long-term sharholders to break even. Moreover, we continue the search we started two years ago for anyone interesting in partnering our first gen constructs...oh and since we lost our only paying partner on what we believe is our most promising next gen construct, we will begin a search on that front as well. In the meantime, hold tight because massive dilution is coming soon.
Excellent summary. It's difficult to accept the platform may not be what we thought it was. It's easier to accept how poorly the compnay has been managed, because that can be changed (and it has been) but now it's becoming more apparent it's not just poor management but that the science and trial data has not been that impressive to Pharmas or investors and we can't change that, which is harder to swallow.
Agree, Amgem pulling the plug was the final straw for me. Until that point, when folks pointed out that perhaps the first gen constructs were falling short as evidenced by no one wanting to partner, I thought the ace in the hole was Amgens standing behind NEO, which is no longer the case. Also it was disappointing to read the new proxy letter today and not seeing any explanation why Amgen left.
Stay positive. Perhaps Berlin purposely screwed up and delayed execution of the NEO trial because he has another partner that he will announce today who will pay ADXS $130m upfront (double what Amgen paid) and call off the reverse.
If the science were worth anything, the stock price would not have fallen 90%, Amgen would not have cut the cord and Berlin would not be forced to do a reverse or else be delisted.
Optimistic Scenario:
Berlin should sell the company in its entirely to maximize shareholder value instead of continuing to dilute and kick the can down the road that only benefits management while value erodes further. ADXS has approximately $30 million in cash left. The company valuation is now around $20 million. I think Berlin could get a buyer to purchase ADXS for $40 million (share price of $0.50 to $0.60). The buyer would get $30 million cash to pocket and be paying $10 million for the IP and shareholders would get a double from here. That's the most optimistic scenario at this stage, because if the reverse split and massive dilution goes through, it's more of the same...shafting shareholders while management protects their paychecks.
The company is in a desperate position. Ken is doing what he can to keep it afloat. You would rather not see a reverse split but instead see the company delisted from NASDAQ, or alternatively a class action lawsuit that maybe after all the attorney fees gets shareholders a payout of $0.20 a share?
Changing the CEO or BOD at this point won't make a bit of difference. ADXS has already had three CEOs in the past two years. The company's current market value collapse is reflective of the trial data and potential of the platform, which has attracted very little interest from institutional investors or big pharma.
Blue, unfortunately we already got our fresh start, with Ken Berlin and his change in strategic direction. It's too late now, at this point the science is speaking and lack of investor or pharma demand for ADXS' platform.
Comparing ADXS to SRPT is deceitful IMHO. It's like comparing a small failing tech company to Apple, "Just look at Apple's stock price, it could happen to us." Never mind that both investors and Big Pharmas has shown strong interest in SRPTs science, neither of which is true for ADXS.
ADXS "was" a diamond in the rough five years ago. Since then, the clinical trial data has failed to impress, most institutional holders sold, the company's only paying partner bailed and the validation has collapsed.
Come on, think about it. Lenders have underwriting standards, When they see the only pharma bailing on a development deal and the company seeing very little imvestor interest. they're not going to take the risk lending to ADXS as the probability of them getting their money back is extremely low. If you apply for a loan and you defaulted on your last two loans (ie, the last two financings ADXS has done have lost 90% value) what lender is going to extend you a loan?
Looking back over the last two years, it's clear now no pharma has been impressed enough with ADXS trial data to put money in the company. I held out hope until Agmen lost confidence in the viability of the platform and bailed. Without any BP endorsing ADXS as a late stage company, why would any rationale imvestor put more money in the company. We are seeing the wind down now.
The damage has already been done, as ADXS has very few options at this point. Companies like ADXS die a slow death. If shareholders vote no, they will lose 100% rather than the 90% already gone, so the cycle continues and management will continue to collect compensation as long as they can keep the doors open. This round of financing will not be from investors, as ADXS already burnt that bridge, but from toxic finances. Remaining retail shareholders will continue to blame everybody but themselves for making a bad investment decision.
I feel sorry for you but wish you the best if that's what you really think has happened to ADXS.
Anyone who believes in capitalism recognizes ADXS is where it should be. For several years the market gave the company a lot of capital on favorable terms then the money was spent inneficiently and the trial data was not good enough to attract strong partners. Now the company's cost of capital is much higher and less access to quality investors.
Blaming the shorts is an excuse for the bad investment we made. If the data and management had been stronger, the compnay would not be in the position it is in today.
Agreed, the real reason Amgen bailed is because they wanted HOT and ADXS said no, so Amgen dumped NEO in preparation of buying ADXS shortly in its entirety for $3 billion, which Berlin will announce next week as he calls off the reverse split.
Price action today market thinks Berlin will announce a cervical cancer deal worth $1 billion with $100 million upfront on next week's call. Stay positive.
Honestly, hard to make anything out of the comment "stay tuned." If you're a CEO making $500k and your company is in a pinch and might not make it, at the very least you're going to try to maximize the runway so you get that compensation as long as possible before you have to look for another job. This is particularly true with Berlin since he hasn't been with ADXS even a year.
The street also knows that ADXS' survival at this point is doubtful.
They can say whatever they want to try to reinforce the value of NEO, but actions speak louder than words and the only action we have seen is the world's largest biotech made the decision that ADXS' NEO platform was not worth further investment.
Good point, everyone has an opinion that should be respected. The skepticism around his are 1) bold assertions not based on any evidence, and 2) all of his past assertions have proven to be wrong.
Exactly, no reputable institution would put money in the company now given the track record, which was why it was a monumemtal blow when Amgen bailed (the only big pharma or biotech willing to put skin in the game and endorse ADXS' science).
I will give credit to Berlin for one change (of omission) in the current press release. In other press releases, the company has often made a reference to their focus on creating shareholder value. At least Berlin has enough sense to know that such a statement would be insulting at this point given how much value the company has destroyed. Instead, he referred to the company's commitment to demonstrate that the vaccine helps cancer patients. I applaud the honesty in that statement. He is implicitly acknowledging that if you give your money to ADXS - similar to United Way or Red Cross - you're not getting it back but at least it's going to a good cause.
That is a generic statement consistent historically with ADXS projecting optimistic outcomes but then not being able to follow through and deliver. Remember a few months ago, Berlin said to stay tuned for upcoming catalysts. And boy did we get the mother of all catalysts shortly thereafter: ADXS' only monetary partner terminating the development deal on its most promising construct, NEO.
Nice, realistic post. I wish I had listened more to you instead of falling for the hype that the company was worth billions, the depressed stock price was only a result of manipulation and when "they" covered it would allow the stock to move back up...all of which was dead wrong. The company is done. At this point, there has been a for sale sign pretty much saying, "I'm trading for less than cash so anyone can buy me for cash value" yet still no one is interested. If anyone thinks that doesn't reflect poorly on the science they are fooling themselves.
I didn't say NEO was a failure. I said so far ADXS aggregate trial data is such that investors/market valuation and absence of any paying partners mean believe the platform is not worth much. IMO that's hard to dispute, because if it weren't the case we would be seeing a higher valuation/greater investor demand and greater interest from BP in partnering ADXS' technology. I said "so far" meaning things could change tomorrow if Berlin strikes a big deal with cash upfront.
I don't speak anything, the company's valuation and absence of any partners with skin in the game do.
The collective trial data to date is such that neither Big Pharma or investors think ADXS' platform is worth much.
Doubtful, because if they still believed in ADXS' neoantigen platform they could have easily struck a development deal on HOT as they terminated NEO but they chose not to.
Amgen's pulling out was a negative game changer as it was ADXS' only paying partner. While there have been no trial "failures" the collective data has not been good enough to attract partners or a reasonable valuation. If the company strikes a deal for AXAL or NEO or HOT with upfront cash that gets the valuation up and eliminates the need for a reverse split, I will be proven wrong.
Genotechs move in no way validates ADXS' approach. Amgen's actions are more indicative of the potential of ADXS' neoantigen approach.
I find investors' repricing ADXS 90% lower and Amgen's action of terminating its decelopmemt deal with NEO to be more credible than a few posters claiming NEO is worth billions.
The only comment I recall saying Amgen got NEO cheap was from the same poster who claimed AXAL was worth $1 billion with $100 million upfront and that ADXS would get $25 million when the first NEO patient was dosed. If Amgen thought they "stole" NEO they likely would not have pulled the plug so early and instead carried through to more clinical trial outcomes, unless the the initial early data didn't meet their expectation, or the manufacturing costs and process didn't meet their expectation, or they had a change of strategic direction and decided to prioritize other treatments, which implies they think they will get potentially better outcomes for the money spent on other developing other treatments instead of NEO.
Too bad Amgen thought ADXS' specific neoantigen approach was not worth further investment or development.