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Good luck with that theory. Short interest is low currently, so there will not be a squeeze. Short interest will increase after the reverse, as the market recognizes the reverse was done out of weakness because no pharma has show interest via a monetary deal. I will be wrong if a pharma steps up with a monetary deal soon that causes the stock to get back above $1 and Ken calls off the reverse.
Look at the positive side. If Ken does the reverse causing the stock to fall further, shorting it is an opportunity for LTSHs to recoup some of their losses.
I'm sure he has received term sheets, which doesn't mean much, as it depends on what the terms are. ADXS has gotten past term sheet that resulted in weak cashless deals.
Tick tock, the countdown is on, will we see the final annihilation of LTSHs with the reverse split happening...or is the science strong enough to attract big pharma interest via a monetary deal that gets the stock back over $1 so the reverse will not be needed? We will know sometime in 2019. GLTA
Agreed, pretty much guaranteed Merck is going to buy ADXS for at least a couple billion, so no need for the reverse and mass dilution on unfavorable terms. The next two press releases: 1) cancellation of the reverse, and shortly thereafter, 2) Merck to acquire ADXS for $2 billion.
Berlin likely knows the company is past the point of no return, so what is his natural strategy seeing it's been less than a year that he left the last company he bankrupted? You don't have to be a Princeton grad to know the answer...milk the company to the last dime so he remains employed while he looks for his next opportunity.
Yup, so sad. No ADXS investor three years ago could have even imagined the compnay would fall from grace to where it is today. In 2016 Amgen made a gamble on ADXS' next gen tech. Then in 2017 the real turning point for the worse was when Astra passed on partnering on cervical combo. This was a red flag, but it came only about six months after Amgen had put $65 million in the line for NEO, so even if ADXS' first gen tech wasn't good enough, Amgens vote of confidence on NEO as a game changer was huge. The final nail in the coffin was Amgem seeing cracks in the science and leaving.
Only way it will get back to a buck is by a reverse split, unfortunately.
We all leaned a lesson in that the market has been efficient and right in valuing ADXS' sciemce at virtually nothing and Amgens termination added further validation the platform doesn't have much of a future.
The hold will help ADXS negotiate a bigger deal for AXAL because the FDA likely initiated the hold because it is about to grant AXAL early approval and just wanted to make sure Berlin crossed the Is and dotted the Ts beforehand. Therefore, I expect the deal we are about to see will command $200 million upfront. Berlin, enough already, announce the cancellation of the reverse and dilution. With AXAL approval coming soon, ADXS is in a position of strength. GLTA
AXAL clinical hold. Something is up for and it is good IMO. I bet whichever Big Pharma ADXS is hard bargaining for $100 million upfront for AXAL has a plant in the FDA and convinced the agency to put on the clinical hold so the pharma could hard bargain ADXS back and get ADXS agree to a $50 million upfront payment instead of $100 million given the headline risk of the hold. $50 million here we come. The next press release will be announcement of an AXAL deal with $50 million upfront, following by cancelling the reverse and dilution.
It is about the science at this point, since the platform is up for grabs and we have a late stage asset. If Big Pharma is impressed and believes in the future of the ADXS' listeria and neoantigen platform, a deal will be struck and the reverse will be called off. If that is not the case and a reverse goes through and there is another dilution on highly unattractive terms with toxic financiers, then it is because both investors and Big Pharma think ADXS' trial results have not been good enough and there is not much future in the science. We will now soon enough.
You have said the company is worth billions. If that is true, a big pharma will likely step up and pay a measy $100 million for rights to the platform since it is all up for grabs at this point and Berlin has his pick of the litter from the multiple terms sheets he is evaluating. If the science continues to hold promise and demand, they will not need to do a reverse split as the market will correct the gross injustice (solely done by manipulators) and bring the stock back up to fair value.
I think the "reverse split" talk is all part of hard negotiation tactics Berlin is using and we will see the fruit of his efforts by way of a monetary deal soon. In other words, he is saying to potential partners, "If you do not agree to $100 million upfront, we will not strike a deal with you as we can always reverse and wipe out our current shareholders and raise more money instead of accepting a wimpy sub-$100 million upfront payment so pay up or get out."
Think big, a deal is coming and the reverse will be called off.
Will there be a white knight deal with $50 to $100 million upfront (on AXAL or HOT or NEO) that gets the stock back up to around $3 so that the reverse split and dilution on unfavorable terms are called off and LTSHs are not wiped out? Still time before the de-listing and company runs out of money for a monetary deal to happen - if the science is strong and Big Pharma believes in it, it will happen and there won't be a need for a reverse. GLTA
AXAL worth $1 billion ($50 million upfront)
PSA worth $1 billion ($50 million upfront)
NEO worth $1 billion ($50 million upfront)
HOT worth $1 billion ($50 million upfront)
ADXS is in a position of strength. With the company's four franchises worth $200 million upfront, no way they will go through with an unnecessary reverse split and dilution that wipes out current shareholders. GLTA
That price target is likely post reverse split, with the analyst assuming a 1:20 reverse split puts the stock at $7 then it becomes a target of shorts and is shorted down to the $2.50 price target.
The reference to term sheets could mean very little. Terms sheets may or may not result in a deal. Moreover, any business relationship, even if no cash in involved, would originate from a term sheet. In other words, collaborations such as the Biocon India deal with no cash involved or the Merck deal providing Keytruda in the PSA combo trial would have started with a term sheet, but the terms were such that the partner was not willing to put skin in the game. The reference to an AXAL "term sheet" could be the same, i.e., another weak deal.
True, good point. Not much fundamentally that merits investment now but that could change.
Anyone who thinks now is a great low-risk opportunity to make money investing in ADXS at the current level may want to read this except on reverse splits:
"With a few rare exceptions—reverse splits are bad news for investors. Here’s why:
The number one reason for a reverse stock split is because the stock exchanges—like the NYSE or Nasdaq—set minimum price requirements for shares that trade on their exchanges. And when a company’s shares decline to near—or below—that level, the easiest way to stay in compliance with the exchange is to reduce the number of outstanding shares so that the price of the individual shares—like magic—automatically rises. And when that happens, the company’s shares can remain trading on the exchange.
Of course, while the shares may get an initial boost, don’t expect it to last. If a company’s fortunes—and shares—have been waning, savvy investors will see the reverse split as a big red flag and continue selling, sending the share price back down.
Most—although not all—reverse stock splits are seen in small penny stocks that have not been able to attain steady profitability and create value for their shareholders. I found that was the case in most of the biotechs’ recent reverse splits. Many are on the verge of bankruptcy, and they use a reverse split as a last-ditch effort to revive their failing fortunes."
Keep telling yourself the termination had nothing to do with the science. It had everything to do with the science and chances of commercial variability of the science.
I don't believe there's much upside and don't believe Merck is very interested. The company basically just blew three $250m over the last five years, has a late stage trial but zero paying partners and virtually no institutional backers besides index funds and toxic financiers like CVI. Why so little interest? Because the potemtial of the science and platform has fallen short. That's my opinion. Good luck holding out. Miracles sometimes happen but fundamentally, the case for ADXS doesn't look good, hence no value assigned to the clinical program .
I'm not buying back. I think ADXS is much riskier with a higher probably of failure now and/or lower probability investors will see much of a return for the following: 1) so far no one is interesting in partnering the company's late stage asset, AXAL 2) Amgen, the only paying partner decided the next gen platform was not worth further investment and 3) we are about to see the second reverse split in less than six years time, so the company failed to add any value over six years. That is the most transparent indication that neither imvesotes or pharmas think the tech is worth much.
Fair point. The early data was not good enough, but could have gotten better over time. We'll see soon enough.
ADXS released PSA data at ASCO last year bit it wasn't compelling enough for Merck to want to make a deal so PSA could become another AXAL with no interest.
Not stupid selling if the company's platform is not viable commercially (which looks to be the case given Amgens termination and lack of interest from investors) in which case the company will die a slow death.
Big Pharma and investors, evidenced by lack of interest in ADXS, don't think the trial data has been good enough so they trials may not come to full fruition.
Because selling the company would end their lucrative compensation scheme.
Guilty, I believed in the company and turned out to be wrong. My point is if one has a sincere view, negative or positive, that is ok and those who were negative offered a more valid perspective (in hindsight) because they were right.
Karma also works both ways. One could argue the baseless pumping has caused more damage over the years than the skeptical views, because the skeptical views actually turned out to be right.
ADXS is akin to the titanic at this point. The market has judged the trial data and concluded the potential of the platform has fallen short of expectations. Now the compnay is in a wind-down with the BOD and management trying to squeeze the last drop out of the lemon to compensate themselves before a repeat of Berlin's last company.
You know it's a sign of retail shareholder desperation when folks are actually making the argument now that it would be a better to get delisted from NASDAQ than do a reverse split. Delusional.
The fact you are using "cure" in your reference to ADXS shows your framework and expectations are unrealistic and naive.
I was invested in ADXS for years so naturally I'm interested in the intellectual dialogue on the state of the company. ADXS' demise would be a great case study in business management, but it appears now there is more validity that the science is not attracting the demand or has the promise it once had. Curious, do you think you historical calls endorsing ADXS through various Seeking Alpha articles, given the actual outcome of the investment, will negatively impact your publishing career?
Look on the bright side. We may have lost money on ADXS, but things could be worse. At least no one was stupid enough to encourage friends and family to buy this dog.
He could only get what the market for willing to pay for ADXS given the trial data pipeline which was not much.
No doubt, Berlin was thrown into pretty much a failed company, at least financially speaking due to poor stewardship of past management. IMO what's become clear at this point after three CEOs in the last two years is that it's not just poor management that led us to where we are today, but shortcomings in the science. Otherwise, ADXS would have attracted monetary partners and high quality investors and not have been forced into toxic financing and Amgen wouldn't have pulled the plug. At the end of the day, the market has valued ADXS' science. The potential of the platform ended up not impressing either investors or big pharma. For those who blame Berlin and the BOD for hiring a less than reputable CEO, the question remains why was ADXS not able to attract a more qualified CEO than Berlin? The answer is the same reason why ADXS has not been able to attract big pharma to put skin in the game...it's because the potential of the platform has not lived up to expectations. Berlin said one of the reasons Amgen pulled the plug is because of the high risk of further development of NEO especially given the costs. Amgen, one of the world's most successful biotechs concluded the probability of them loosing more money on ADXS' science justified their throwing $65 million down the drain. With no other partners backing the company, the chances of LTSHs getting back their money is akin to their chances winning the lottery at this point. That's why Berlin was called in, because he is experienced squeezing the last drop out of a lemon to benefit management and the BOD before he ultimately declares all options have been exhausted.
The last two terrible term capital raises showed smart money would no longer give ADXS money on favorable terms be cause 1) the compnay spent past money inneficiently, and 2) the trial data and potential of the platform has not impressed like originally expected. Since then, Amgens action is more evidence of point #2.
If the compnay had been better managed and the trial data had been more impressive to investors and potential partners, ADXS would not have had to use a low quality financer like CVI.
Sorry, the manipulation theory has no evidence to support it. The collapse of the stock is a result of poor management and the collective trial data not impressing the market and not attracting partners.