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It was 365B on State of Estate and now it is minus 43B= 322B.
The total affiliate guarrantee is now 9B less than original 21B =12B.
Remember that the "Ad Hoc Group plan" was trying to eliminate this whole 21B? What they do is they transfered the 9B to the 43B intercompany claims which is now equal to 52B.
The intercompany claim of 43B that I was expecting to be canceled was not canceled but the total claim was reduced by 43B.
Folks, it really shows that these people are trying to confuse us but the major thing is they canceled the 43B. And since it is canceled, the negative -41B in the balance sheet will also be cancelled because it is a potential payment for the 43B.
Why they cancelled it rather than paying it?
Because LBHI also have a claim of 44B against the affiliates..Ad Hoc Group plan..Pg-I forgot .
The 60.1B is the present asset recovery and this is the only distributable asset at this time. There should be be a second distributions in case of a aditional recoveries.
Noticed the new claim number 322B?..43B is still their magic number. It was 365B reduced by 43B...I will post more tonight.
IMHO...
I may be wrong on this assumption.
There is no reason and will make "no sense" to go for a liquidation if the book is balanced with enough cash to get back into business operations. The Plan I believe is a requiremnt for the Chap11 and they have to do it.
I have a feeling that Lehman will go for a "Spin Off" once they accumulate more cash, realized some equity, and/or at least some results in litigations.
I may be wrong.
Increase in recovery does not mean increase of asset. The additional recovery may come from the net of "due to" and "due from" in the balance sheet itself and thus, still maintaining the same values as in this case of 59.3B. Hope this answered your question.
I have to use the March A/L as my basis because it is the latest and only reliable data that is available at this time.
The numbers may not agree with the present A/L but the point here is that the A and L are almost equal. (Almost balanced).
THESE NUMBERS ARE ALL MY APPROXIMATIONS. DO NOT USE AS YOUR BASIS FOR INVESTMENT. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILLIGENCE.
March 31 A/L Analysis based on the Ad Hoc Plan.
A/L Asset: ......................... 253.175B …..From March31
Investments in affiliate............ 41.015B ….was netted to 14.299B
Net from Inter-company.......... 14.299B
Equity Interest....................... 00.945B
Affiliate guarantee recovery..... 00.161B
Asset (total)......................... 309.595B
The 14.299B is the net recovery from 43B claim and negative (-)41B Investment in affiliate.
The 41.015B Investment in affiliate is added to cancel the negative. (Ad Hoc Plan _Pg2-14 and Exhibit 2_Pg2-15).
The .945B is Equity interest, (Ad Hoc Plan, Pg2-14)
The .161B is Affiliate guarantee recovery. (Ad Hoc Plan, Pg2-14)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A/L Liability:....... 307.286B …..From March31
Payable (old)...... (4.415B)……From March31
Payable (new).… 7.078B…….From Ad Hoc Plan
Liability (total).. 309.949B
The 4.415B... is the payable amount in the Balance sheet.
The 7.078B.… is the new payable amount in the Ad Hoc Plan.(Pg2-14)
Difference..= 2.663B
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What does it mean?.
Don’t get confused! It only means that the asset is available for recovery.
If recovered:
A balanced A/L will pay all, Including Ct's from the total recoverable Assets.
An excess of 11B in assets will pay all Preferreds and anything more than 11B will keep the common intact.
Folks! According to this, The book is balanced and anything in addition will be for the Preferreds.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Recovery approximation:
State of Estate......................... 59.300B
Intercompany net recovery......... 14.299B
Equity interest............................ 0.945B
Affiliate Guaranty recovery........... 0.161B
Payables.................................. (7.078B)
Approximate Recovery.............. 67.627B
Write it in paper and post it somewhere.
I can slap a wife like his and can still do my job at work. And I don't like this kind of conversation here because I only care about the stocks.
The re-invested 1.8B difference from 59.3B should not be ignored..It is still an asset including all receivables from the A/L to match the estimated claims of approximately 291B on the Ad Hoc Group Plan or the equaled liablity in the A/L.
The Ct holders are wishing a match between A and L, The Preferreds are wishing 11B excess asset, and commons are wishing higher than 11B plus the NOL.
It does not really agree 100% with the June2009 balance sheet and it doesn't agree with other balace sheet either..I'm only referring to what is mentioned in the exibit2 of the amendment.
The 50.97B disributable assets on Ad Hoc Group Plan have 42.8B total recovery with additional 14.299B and .945B from the receivables minus estate expenses.
We all know that the present recovery is 59B. So if you will update the numbers on the plan based on present recovery, It will be 59B plus the additional 14.299B and .945B with a total of 74B minus expenses.
Well, I guess if approved, we should be happy that the recovery is now at least 74B and it is getting close to required 100.316B.
But the approval of these figure is still not final because it will still be open for adjustments in the distributions in case that there is additional recovery.
The bottomline is that the entite plan is only presenting the structure of the distributions of asset and it is not intended to disclose the real final values. The real values of course is on the A/L.
I believe it is written in every Ct's prospectus the same way. There is nothing can be done about it if there is not enough money to cover all the borrowings. Unless of course if the BK judge decided a haircut from the higher classes and distribute.
In my perspective, I don't see it will happen this way because I'm still very optimistic that the recovery will increase to cover all the creditors and preferreds. There are still so many potential recoveries and potential reductions of liabilities at this time.
Game is not over untill we see the entire result. The plan is not the final result. The plan is actually using the figures based on June2009 A/L. The most usefull information in the plan IMO. is on what they are trying to do with the claims. The smaller is the better of course because it will lower the liabilities and in result will increase the recovery.
I hope I don't offend anyone here but I noticed that some people believe the Ct's will receive a certain percentage. Another post is saying that Preferreds are hopeless and doomed... Actually, I believe that the only basis for those assumptions was the Latest Disclosure and the recent amendment.
In fact, The disclosure is based in June2009 balancesheet and the real numbers today should be much different. One big difference of course is that the recovery today is much larger than in June2009 statement. The present amount of recovery will surely affect the prorate amount to Ct's if there is any.
JPM will be in trouble then because they have a similar cas scenario with BofA.
Obviously, They are figting on who will be paid first because there isn't enough money for both claims. My guess is they settled close to fifty fifty.
Bid lower. They love to see the price low. I got filled on .016
Candy business
I borrowed a dollar(credit) and buy one dollar of candy(payable). I sell the candy for dollar fifty(receivable). I pay rent sixty cents(expenses)...I only pay borrowed money(creditor)ninety cents, Short ten cents(deficit).
Needed additional ten cents to break even(Balanced).
hope that explain lol!
Accounting 101
Bankrupt Candy Store
asset:
Beginning cash 1.00
Receivable =1.50
Total =2.50
Liability:
borrowing= 1.00
Candy purcase=1.00
Rent = .60
Total =2.60
Deficit =.10
Recovery = .90
Linda, I cannot argue with your figures. In fact it went up to higher than a trillion.
Have you wonder why this 208.137B was not in the balance sheet?
Cannot happen that way..The judge will not allow stealing of money from others..LAMCO as a whole is owned by LEHMAN. And there is proper accounting if any outsiders will join lamco and inject new capital.
LAMCO is not part of this.. This is about the 50B loan to subsidiaries that was mentioned by Marsal in July341 meeting that seems forgotten. But I realized that it was marked down negative asset on the balancesheet as a investments in affilliates. It was not noticed because everyone was expecting a positive cash recovery from it.
It is very simple. If you have any business big or small, There are expenses and incoming cash that you have to take care to run the business to make money before you can lend or pay cash to the money you borrowed. The Creditors money is a borrowed money that you pay interest and that includes bonds and trusts. In Lehmans case, all the receivable and payables must be done first to realize the excess money to pay the creditors. The 59.3B was short of 41.015B from all borrowed money of 100.316B. So basically the 41.015B is all that is needed to break even or balance the book. Any excess amount paying the creditor will be the equity that is owned by the owner of the company which are the commons including the preferreds.
Linda, I did not calculate..All numbers I used are from the documents. I'm only showing what I found.
Hello Folks, Sixfoot_flat aka.. Toogoodfella on IHUB
This is what I found from the latest State of Estate.
State of Estate Pg7..More realistic range of claims is from 250B to 350B. So let's take the worst scenario, 350B
Pg24..There is 43B Intercompany claims.
If we assume that this Intercompany claim is negotiated to "Nothing".. Zero Claim!! The 350 will turn to 307B which is equal to the March31 A/L's Liability of 307B.
Now,..Will that be possible to cancel the 43B claim?
My answer is "yes" but let me explain.
State of Estate pg20, The Recovery estimate is 59.3B.
March31 A/L, Borrowings is 100.316B
Difference,=41.015B
BTW..We know that borrowings are the total creditor's assets and that includes all bonds and trusts. If there is money available for borrowings ie. 59.3B, It means all of the payables or liabilities are satisfied. Then, the only money needed to balance the A/L is 41.015B. Get it?
Now..Where this money will come from??... Here we go...
March A/L Investsment in affiliates= (-)14.898B and (-)26.117B = 41.015b ..but why negative to the asset?
Here is the answer....November MOR pg5..Saying:
Certain company financing transactions may have occured amongst the company entities. For presentation purposes, inventory collaterizing the financing transactions has not been transfered and continues to be reflected on the balance sheet of the entity receiving the financing along with the related liability.
(Folks, This is the 50B loan to subsidiaries mentioned by Marsal on July341 meeting).
If the inventoy has not been transfered and continues to be reflected in the receiving entities, It means the money is still in LBHI's hands.
Then, reflected as receivable and payable into receiving entity's book, Of course, they will also file a claim on the Bar date.
This claim is the total of Investment in affiliates, and in Decembe31 A/L which is just after the bar date has a total of (-)15.571B and 27.383= (-)42.954B ...still...why negative?... because it was just a potential transfer of the loan to the affiliates... Right?
But they the affiliates also have to pay back the loan plus interest. And since they are claiming for the loan that has not been delivered then it will be a subject for Zero negotiations.
If negotiated to Zero, The claim of 43b and the negative 41.015B will be cancelled. HOPE YOU GUYS FOLLOWED...The A/L is Balanced!!!
I have been posting about it but it seems no one cares. Many posters here now are more interested in Barclay case. No one is paying attention to more techical information anymore.
Toogoodfella aka..sixfoor_flat
Linda, The State of Estate is saying that the realistic claims will be reduced to the range of 250B-350B. Are you telling me that 208.137B will be eliminated? ..Out of 350B, That would leave 142B of Payables in the balance sheet. Is that realistic?
At least my interpretation is very optimistic unless you did not read it very well.
LINDA,
Are you telling me that those numbers on the State of the Estate ar all lies?
Survibal??? big YES!!
Hello Folks, Sixfoot_flat AKA Toogoodfella on IHUB
This is what I found from the latest State of Estate.
State of Estate Pg7..More realistic range of claims is from 250B to 350B. So let's take the worst scenario, 350B
Pg24..There is 43B Intercompany claims.
If we assume that this Intercompany claim is negotiated to "Nothing".. Zero Claim!! The 350 will turn to 307B which is equal to the March31 A/L's Liability of 307B.
Now,..Will that be possible to cancel the 43B claim?
My answer is "yes" but let me explain.
State of Estate pg20, The Recovery estimate is 59.3B.
March31 A/L, Borrowings is 100.316B
Difference,=41.015B
BTW..We know that borrowings are the total creditor's assets and that includes all bonds and trusts. If there is money available for borrowings ie. 59.3B, It means all of the payables or liabilities are satisfied. Then, the only money needed to balance the A/L is 41.015B. Get it?
Now..Where this money will come from??... Here we go...
March A/L Investsment in affiliates= (-)14.898B and (-)26.117B = 41.015b ..but why negative to the asset?
Here is the answer....November MOR pg5..Saying:
Certain company financing transactions may have occured amongst the company entities. For presentation purposes, inventory collaterizing the financing transactions has not been transfered and continues to be reflected on the balance sheet of the entity receiving the financing along with the related liability.
(Folks, This is the 50B loan to subsidiaries mentioned by Marsal on July341 meeting).
If the inventoy has not been transfered and continues to be reflected in the receiving entities, It means the money is still in LBHI's hands.
Then, reflected as receivable and payable into receiving entity's book, Of course, they will also file a claim on the Bar date.
This claim is the total of Investment in affiliates, and in Decembe31 A/L which is just after the bar date has a total of (-)15.571B and 27.383= (-)42.954B ...still...why negative?... because it was just a potential transfer of the loan to the affiliates... Right?
But they the affiliates also have to pay back the loan plus interest. And since they are claiming for the loan that has not been delivered then it will be a subject for Zero negotiations.
If negotiated to Zero, The claim of 43b and the negative 41.015B will be cancelled. HOPE YOU GUYS FOLLOWED...The A/L is Balanced!!!
Hello Folks, Sixfoot_flat AKA Toogoodfella on IHUB
This is what I found from the latest State of Estate.
State of Estate Pg7..More realistic range of claims is from 250B to 350B. So let's take the worst scenario, 350B
Pg24..There is 43B Intercompany claims.
If we assume that this Intercompany claim is negotiated to "Nothing".. Zero Claim!! The 350 will turn to 307B which is equal to the March31 A/L's Liability of 307B.
Now,..Will that be possible to cancel the 43B claim?
My answer is "yes" but let me explain.
State of Estate pg20, The Recovery estimate is 59.3B.
March31 A/L, Borrowings is 100.316B
Difference,=41.015B
BTW..We know that borrowings are the total creditor's assets and that includes all bonds and trusts. If there is money available for borrowings ie. 59.3B, It means all of the payables or liabilities are satisfied. Then, the only money needed to balance the A/L is 41.015B. Get it?
Now..Where this money will come from??... Here we go...
March A/L Investsment in affiliates= (-)14.898B and (-)26.117B = 41.015b ..but why negative to the asset?
Here is the answer....November MOR pg5..Saying:
Certain company financing transactions may have occured amongst the company entities. For presentation purposes, inventory collaterizing the financing transactions has not been transfered and continues to be reflected on the balance sheet of the entity receiving the financing along with the related liability.
(Folks, This is the 50B loan to subsidiaries mentioned by Marsal on July341 meeting).
If the inventoy has not been transfered and continues to be reflected in the receiving entities, It means the money is still in LBHI's hands.
Then, reflected as receivable and payable into receiving entity's book, Of course, they will also file a claim on the Bar date.
This claim is the total of Investment in affiliates, and in Decembe31 A/L which is just after the bar date has a total of (-)15.571B and 27.383= (-)42.954B ...still...why negative?... because it was just a potential transfer of the loan to the affiliates... Right?
But they the affiliates also have to pay back the loan plus interest. And since they are claiming for the loan that has not been delivered then it will be a subject for Zero negotiations.
If negotiated to Zero, The claim of 43b and the negative 41.015B will be cancelled. HOPE YOU GUYS FOLLOWED...The A/L is Balanced!!!
Hello Folks, Sixfoot_flat AKA Toogoodfella on IHUB
This is what I found from the latest State of Estate.
State of Estate Pg7..More realistic range of claims is from 250B to 350B. So let's take the worst scenario, 350B
Pg24..There is 43B Intercompany claims.
If we assume that this Intercompany claim is negotiated to "Nothing".. Zero Claim!! The 350 will turn to 307B which is equal to the March31 A/L's Liability of 307B.
Now,..Will that be possible to cancel the 43B claim?
My answer is "yes" but let me explain.
State of Estate pg20, The Recovery estimate is 59.3B.
March31 A/L, Borrowings is 100.316B
Difference,=41.015B
BTW..We know that borrowings are the total creditor's assets and that includes all bonds and trusts. If there is money available for borrowings ie. 59.3B, It means all of the payables or liabilities are satisfied. Then, the only money needed to balance the A/L is 41.015B. Get it?
Now..Where this money will come from??... Here we go...
March A/L Investsment in affiliates= (-)14.898B and (-)26.117B = 41.015b ..but why negative to the asset?
Here is the answer....November MOR pg5..Saying:
Certain company financing transactions may have occured amongst the company entities. For presentation purposes, inventory collaterizing the financing transactions has not been transfered and continues to be reflected on the balance sheet of the entity receiving the financing along with the related liability.
(Folks, This is the 50B loan to subsidiaries mentioned by Marsal on July341 meeting).
If the inventoy has not been transfered and continues to be reflected in the receiving entities, It means the money is still in LBHI's hands.
Then, reflected as receivable and payable into receiving entity's book, Of course, they will also file a claim on the Bar date.
This claim is the total of Investment in affiliates, and in Decembe31 A/L which is just after the bar date has a total of (-)15.571B and 27.383= (-)42.954B ...still...why negative?... because it was just a potential transfer of the loan to the affiliates... Right?
But they the affiliates also have to pay back the loan plus interest. And since they are claiming for the loan that has not been delivered then it will be a subject for Zero negotiations.
If negotiated to Zero, The claim of 43b and the negative 41.015B will be cancelled. HOPE YOU GUYS FOLLOWED...The A/L is Balanced!!!
This is too early..I expect it to be at least next month..
FOLKS..I'M LOADED ALREADY..i DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU GUYS..IF THE BOOK IS BALANCED THE NOL WILL TAKE CARE OF THE PREFEEREDS..AND IF 11B IS EXCEEDED, EVEN THE COMMONS WILL BE OK.
Hello Folks, I'm back.
State of Estate Pg7..More realistic range of claims is from 250B to 350B. So let's take the worst scenario. 350B
Pg24..There is 43B Intercompany claims.
If we assume that this Intercompany claim is negotiated to "Nothing" Zero Claim!! The 350 will turn to 307B which is equal to the March31 A/L's Liability of 307B.
Now..Will that be possible to cancel the 43B claim?
My answer is "yes" but let me explain.
State of Estate pg20, The Recovery estimate is 59.3B.
March31 A/L, Borrowings is 100.316B
Difference,=41.015B
BTW..We know that borrowings are the total creditor's assets and that includes all bonds and trusts. If there is money available for borrowings i.e 59.3B, It means all of the payables are satisfied. Then the only money needed to balance the A/L is 41.015B. Get it?
Now..Where this money will come from? Here we go...
March A/L Investsment in affiliates= (-)14.898B and (-)26.117B..but why negative to the asset?
Here is the answer....November MOR pg5..Saying:
Certain company financing transactions may have occured amongst the company entities. For presentation purposes, inventory collaterizing the financing transactions has not been transfered and continues to be reflected on the balance sheet of the entity receiving the financing along with the related liability.
(Folks, This is the 50B loan to subsidiaries mentioned by Marsal on July341 meeting).
If the inventoy has not been transfered and continues to be reflected in the receiving entities, It means the money is still in LBHI's hands.
Then, reflected as receivable and payable into receiving entity's book, Of course they will also file a claim on the Bar date.
This claim is the total of Investment in affiliates, and in Decembe31 A/L which is just after the bar date was a total of (-)15.571B and 27.383= (-)42.954B still...why negative? because it was just a potential payment for the loan. Right?
But they also have to pay the loan plus interest. And since they are claiming for the loan that has not been delivered then it will be a subject for Zero negotiations.
If negotiated to Zero, The claim of 43b and the negative 41.015B will be cancelled. HOPE YOU GUYS FOLLOWED...The A/L is Balanced!!!
Hello folks, Toogoodfella here AKA sixfoot_flat from Yahoo. Too bad that Coach sold after he questioned those two negative items on A/L, The "Investment in Affiliates" Which are (15.571B) and (27.383B) in December 2009. These values are the reason for a large deficit on the book. FYI.... I found something tricky about it and I will post it after I loaded Up more...
I wish he still look and monitor this HuB. Or you can email me Coach..sixfoot_flat@yahoo dot com.
Hello folks, Any idea when the next Balance sheet is coming out?
Dont even think about it. That 73B claim is part of the 100B borrowings on the balansheet Which includes all bonds and Capital Trusts.
It's wont happen that way my friend. Considering tha law and many other form of government looking. What you saying is completely against the law. I optimistic about it.
daktok..
>>>Marsal said that LAMCO can bring in $50 Billion over five years -- you do the math.....Where will we be after five years?<<<<<
Wonder where did you see this? Can you provide a link for this?
Thanks
Why it seems many of you guys have forgotten the 50B loan to subsidiaries that was mentioned by Marsall on the July presentation? I believe that the loan by the subidiaries from the mother company should be the most senior of all loans. And not all of the subsidiaries went to BK in the first place.