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Meme Re MSFT
I've been sceptical about the growth potential of Microsoft in the past.
I think the culmination of PC production was relatively forseable and it had me lukewarm (as I also am with chipstocks, incl. INTC).
What brought 'fantasy' back in MSFT stocks, in my eyes, was their buyout of Navision.
To the extend that people in the business called that an all-out attack on SAP and to some extend also Oracle, it suggested to me that after the lengthy trials that MSFT have gone through, they've abandoned their temporary retreat to the rear and returned to the front seat, behind the wheel and with the foot on the gas pedal.
-When MSFT deside it's time to kick ass, I would not like to be the receiver!
-It's a bit like with the US... I don't like GW and I consider him a world political version of a school yard bully. But if it comes to war, I'd still bet on him winning it. Anyone would be a fool to believe anything else for as much as a second...
KD
Summary (Nov. 10th):
Nice to see some decent volume on the Nasdaq, for a change.
Commentators are busy talking about market jitters as a response to increased chances of a new Golf War...
Well, they have to say something, don't they... And it has to sound like it's making sense - all in a days work, I guess...
Disregarding news completely and just looking at the Nasdaq chart - It offers a more 'technical' explanation to the sell-off towards the end of the trading week as profit taking.
-Demonstrated here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daolyyay[de][pb60!c200][vc60][iUb14]&p...
Once the RSI hits the roof (graph above the chart), the market approaches overbought and correction will mostly kick in.
We're well clear of the support of the 60 day moving average. Short of dramatic news, the chart suggest the market will regain composure as the RSI approaches the 50 mark and the Nasdaq at that time will stay clear of its 60 day moving support.
Personally, I do not expect this market to reverse on this side of at least one attempt at the 200 day moving average resistance.
Conversely, I'm in the dark as to whether that resistance will hold, like it did last December/January, or whether we'll break it, this time around.
Nice to see old faces back on the board.
It was getting a bit lonely at times and I was getting worried about a growing tendency of talking to myself (not least because I bore myself to tears, trying to make sense of a market, using something that falls little short of astrology, but what else can you believe, out there? Pro forma earnings? Analysts? Forward looking projections?
Hell, if Greenspan can't read the market, I can excuse myself for not being able to, either...)
PS. I wanna be chairman of the FED, when I grow old...
I'm as clueless as Greenspan - what more qualifications could they ask for at the job interview?...
... But come to think of it - why stop there...
KD
(Already hearing himself solemnly swearing at some future congressional hearing that he, too, has NOT had sex with Monica Lewinsky - technically speaking...).
HA! You had me, there, Perfect/Baily, you old dog!
Not for a second did I guess it was you!...
-And then there was this little 5 year old latino and what else?
HA!!!
I did, on occation go under another name, too, I'll have you know...
GOne4coffee.
He ended crossing swords with with GJ, too, and that grumpy old fool, Mickey, on the DIS board.
haha!... Good dog, Baily - good dog!
KD
PS. My favourite alternative nics remain YourLadyN and DilletanteTwo... haha!...
Oh, Nene, where are you now? LOL!
Re: What the heck do I know?
I tend to see it the exact opposite way of you.
As a young green investor, I was at first flabbergasted by the 'insight' many economical commentators on TV stations like CNN possess. Reality is, however, that they are exceptionally good at rationalizing sentiments, once those sentiments have actually played themselves out.
Often, I wondered, when the market recap was on in the evening and commentators would go to great lenght telling us about how news yesterday from GM led the bluechips down and weaker than expected earnings from Unilever was compensated by a bullish sentiment in the semiconductor industry...
And often, I have wondered: "Why do they tell me this, now? Why didn't they tell me about it, early this morning instead? It's not like the 'news' they refer to wasn't known already yesterday..."
The reality is, Dave, that the commentators are not nearly as street-smart or influential as they sound. They howl with the wolves, once the wolves are howling - they never started it and they'll stop, the same second the wolves does and then do their recap "Did you hear how loud we were?"
It's a bit like the joke about the mouse and the elephant walking together over a bridge. The loud sound from the construction as they walk, makes the mouse exclaim "Wow! What a lot of noice WE make"...
KD
PS. The contradiction to both of us, is a guy like Louis Rukeyser. There are probably few economical commentators that are watched by more viewers than him and he's been bullish the entire year and the entire year he's been rediculing the market for going down - but down it went, just the same...
'The Mother of all resistances'
Having successfully cracked short term resistances, this is the one to look out for, now:
The 200 day!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][pc200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]...
We had a go at it about a year ago, after the dive in the aftermath of Sept. 11th.Resistance held and we went for new lows.
If we don't break it, somehow, not nessesarily in the first, but then in a subsequent second or third attempt, we'll ultimately head downwards again.
If we DO break it, the skies are blue... From a chart technical point of view, this is the most important support we can get, once we're above it. Conversely, it is the most horrific resistance we have, as long as we're below it.
The 200 day moving average is now less than 100 points away and declining.
The market will have to take a breather and regain its composure after resent gains. Then... we shall see...
KD
Saw it, too, Dick.
That was a dismal forecast, indeed.
He didn't add all that much to underscore why he thought so, but one can argue that he didn't need to, either. Macroeconomic news over the past two weeks have been downright dismal and depressing.
There comes a point, however, when even a pessimist becomes a contrarian:
The stock market is typically half a year ahead of the economy (because it is driven by ecpectations, rather than facts) and the stockmarket is at the moment pricing stocks on expectations that cover already well into the new year.
Whereas the current news are bad, bad news have been anticipated (in spite of better news that were promised! The stockmarket thus predicted Greenspan wrong on the recovery-rate and sent the market down over the summer. Are we to call a verdict on this, now, it must be Market: 1 Greenspan: 0)
If the market is right and recovery will accelerate in the early part of the new year, the current uptrend will continue. If, however, signs keep deteriorating and a barrage of Q4 warnings comes tumbling, the current uptrend can quickly reverse.
It is, with respect to this, I believe, important to keep the following in mind:
Whereas the recovery of the stockmarket has been convincing, pricewise, so far, -take a look at the volume!...
The daily trading volme has been anything but convincing!
It is a relatively small number of buyers that are driving the market up at the moment. It may turn out to be the smart few, but it'll take only a small increase in the number of sellers to turn this around in a minute.
In short: I'm betting on a year bottom in October, but I emphasise that if the Nasdaq drops below its 60 day moving average again and stay under for several days, it's time to sell again.
KD
PS. I'm beginning to regret my own advice: I said I'd wait to buy until the Nasdaq had stabilized above the 60 day average and broken free of its resistance.
That happened, Friday.
I also said I'd stick to stocks with a positive balance and a relatively low P/E, incl QLGC and LOGI.
Either, would have been a good idea, but it turned out that both was not:
QLGC and LOGI have, whilest I waited, caught up with their 200 day averages and now look less attractive.
Had I said "to hell with it" and bought on my notion of the October bottom, I'd have almost doubled my money on a QLGC bet, by now.
All goes to show that I, too, am but a snotty little amateur in this game of chicken...
Just the same, I'd advice anyone to consider only stocks of well consolidated companies with a positive balance sheet and relatively low P/E
QLGC is still "relatively" "cheap", as is LOGI, ELON, MSFT and CSCO
I personally disfavor telecom and chipmakers, right now. (Another word for it, is "scared")
JNPR made a gigantic jump, Friday, on rumors that it is about to ink a major contract with Verizon.
If true, this could bring JNPR back to a positive balance sheet, shortly and JNPR may be a good bet, if the deal is confirmed within a few days.
Again: These are ramblings of an amateur and should be taken with a grain of salt!
Nasdaq bounced on the 60 day mov. ave. support.
Heck, that's the first support that has held in a long long time. But it is frail.
Data in resent days have been crappy, to put it mildly. Consumer confidense plummeted and retail sales are beginning to weaken seriously.
If the Nasdaq support still holds in the coming days, in spite of awful economic news, it will be because the market downright refuses to go lower, right now. There are no logical objective reasons why it shouldn't react negatively, right now - but market may still deside it's all factored in, or it may bet on an interest rate cut, next week
I thought the final test of the current bulls willpower would be through last week, but it didn't precipitate to a showdown. It looks like that showdown WILL take place and it'll be at any time between now and the coming fed meeting, next week (I believe it's Tuesday)
Nasdaq Short term support: 1270
Nasdaq Short term resistance: 1330
KD
The battle is on...
After several days above the breaking line, the buyer-side is showing some fatigue.
It is important that the market is not discouraged in the upcoming half week to a week (If JDSU still has a CEO, I wish he'd keep his mouth firmly shut in the next four five trading days...).
On the desidedly positive side:
The telecom sector has been exceptionally bullish in the last few days and has firmly broken out of a bottom:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XTC,uu[h,a]daolyyay[de][pc60!c200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,...
This sector in particular may take a breather in the very near term (some key players are short-term overbought... man, I can't remember when was the last time I used that word... it must have been in some previous millenium...)
-So hey! - cheer up, gang! This is the first glimmer of light we're seing, here. (We can discuss later if it this was just a passing hole in the clouds, or whether two and a half years of continuous thunderstorm is slowly coming to an end. Either way, it sure is nice to see the sun still exist somewhere up there).
KD
LOL Dick
I gave up calling bottoms before you, my friend, but I keep waiting for it.
I actually turned more conservative than I am, now. For a while I swore I'd not buy back in, before the Nasdaq broke through it's 200 day moving average, as a confirmation that not only has it bottomed but it's in a sustained bull market.
I have revised that opinion lately (but I'm thankful it has saved me a lot):
My point now, is that downturns comes in waves, during which the 60day moving average runs as a resistance (this is not a peculiarity that follows this bear market - it is a general phenomenon).
So - if you only buy, when the market crosses over the 60day moving average and always sell, when it drops below the 60day moving average, your money are relatively safe in an averaged stock like QQQ.
I believe the breaking of the 60day moving resistanse is happening right now: For the Nasdaq500, it hasn't happened yet, but for the mostly trendsetting Nasdaq100 (and thus, the QQQ), the index is right now slightly above.
If it stabilizes itself above it, during the next 3-5 trading days (scenario 1), I believe the market will move up towards the 200day average.
If that happens, we will see towards the end of the year whether it will make a charge on the 200d or whether it will bounce off of it, like 10 months ago.
So, Dick, here's my pledge:
If the Nasdaq index stabilizes above the 60day average in the first coming days, I'll buy a little at a time and conservatively (I consider QQQ, CSCO, MSFT, QLGC. Any hot picks of your own you'd like to share?)
If at any time after next week, the market dips down below the 60d average, I will - I WILL - sell again! - Instantly!
I pledge this, too (to no one more than myself): No matter how oversold they appear: I will not buy wireless/telecommunications stocks, this time around! INSP, OPWV, ERICY, PCS all looks "cheap" and maybe they are, but I love the money I have, more than that I may not make by not buying stocks in this sector right now.
KD
PS C'mon, Dick - tell me what you have your sight on, at the moment. I dare you!
PPS "I think that the techs should have a higher p/e than the stodgy old blue chips"
First, they nedd to get a P/E. The biggest worry for me is not it's size, right now, but it's absense!
Many a company is out where it's make or break, because of it.
Take Nortel: If they can grow by 30% from where they are now, they'll have their P/E and it will almost instantly be low, due to a collapsed share prize. The problem is, if they go down 30%, rather than up, over the next year, they won't exist by this time, next year...
PPPS BTW, for those who still remember DoubleBuy from the old SEEK board, I still run into him on ocations, at Yahoo's INSP board. He's as hilariously funny as always and his favorite hobby is still harrasing blondes.
15/10: Close to breakout!
I can't put drawings of support and resistance trendlines, but the 60day moving average follows the resistance closely so I include it for visualization:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daolyyay[dd][pc60][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&...
It'll need to stabilize above it and head towards the ultimate resistance, given by the 200 day average.
Last attempt at a breakout was in mid August.
The rest of this week should prove exiting...
KD
Re DickMN
Certainly.
The market is, or so I conclude, so depressed that just about any bad news are factored in.
You mention GE and they're a good example: They met their target, but did so by 1-time gains of sold assets. Nevertheless, the market was so happy that they met, that no one seems to care why or how.
I don't know if you agree with me on this, but I feel that the bottom is to be found, here in October.
I know the P/E of the SP500 is still high, compared to where it has been at previous ressessions, but I find that many stocks, like CSCO, QLGC, some chip producers, etc., are at so favorable prices that they're not going to go much lower than this.
Factoring into this is two circumstances that distinguish this ressession from previous:
1) The interest rate is so low that -historically speaking- higher P/Es can compete (For the SP500, it is at about 18, right now)
2) the average investor today, is totally different from investors during previous ressessions: It used to be professional traders that dominated the market and they could agree with one another, where this was to bottom, but today it is the average American household that does a good deal of buying and selling on the stockmarket and they are less inclined to be controlled/controlable (perhaps now, less than ever, given how investmentfirms and analysts have fallen grom grace)
KD
PS. I'm still not optimistic on wireless - the shakeout is ferocious and whereas I expect companies like ERICY, LU and NT will aviod bankrupcy, they're going to be so battered by this and stuck with so hefty losses that it's going to take them years to recouperate...
Okt. 10th: A disasterous Q for JNPR
They expected a loss of 3 cents on a revenue sharply higher than last Q
They lost 25 cents and fell far short of revenue expectations.
They'll be roadkill, tomorrow, and we'll see what it'll do to CSCO and EXTR...
This, after a resent warning by EMC, and an ALA hanging in the ropes - we begin to see the contours of a network business that's not about to recover just yet.
It is also a business segment that is so oversold at the moment, that a hefty dip may be an outstanding buying opportunity...
KD
Still believe October will see the bottom!
We're in crash mode, like early last September. If we do not see a double-dip (I believe we won't), this month will see a low that will stand, either forever or untill next summer/autumn.
Shoppinglist?
I'm growing more and more conservative in the tech sector and my bets will be entirely on companies that makes profits and have relatively low P/Es:
CSCO
QLGC
ELON
LOGI
ORCL
They won't be the ones to bump the highest in a rebound, but they won't be the ones to collaps completely, either.
I will stay out of telecommunications/ cable/ wireless, this time around.
The shakeout in that sector is not nearly over and we'll see a number of high-profile Bankrupcies before it's done, I worry.
The crashes we've already seen, have not taken anyone off the market, so the collapsed ones are dragging the others (already weakened) companies further and further down, IMO.
Good luck, out there!
KD
Dig this story (scary!)
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020816&ID=...
KD
8/8 Alert: Nasdaq 20day EMA broken!
After a resent double-bottom, we ended on the upside of the 20-day exponential moving average, today. If tomorrow confirms this, we've seen the bottom of this market for now!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daolyyay[dc][pc20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&...
KD
Rally sought for questioning after impersonating 'the bottom'
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P27837.asp?special=msn
KD
Milton Friedman's experiment
Since the liberalisation of the corporate world during the beginning of the Reagan era (we could call it "The Friedman economy" after the Nobel laureate economist whose work was the foundation for Reagans reforms), the market grew, from 1982 to 1995 with an underlying supportline extending through the lows of 1984, 1987, 1990 and 1995:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$djia,uu[h,a]daolyyay[d19800101,20020801][pb200][vc60]<>
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]daolyyay[d19800101,20020801][pb200][vc60]<...
Extending on the underlying support over those years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average should have had it's momentary support at around 9000 and the S&P500 at about 900-1000
Interestingly, from 1995 untill 2000, all indexes broke away from their uptrend support and took off and formed a "bump", only then to reverse and break through the established support in classical chart patterns, called a "bump and run reversal";
http://stockcharts.com/education/What/ChartAnalysis/barr.html
Even the dip following 9/11 respected the underlying 20 year uptrend supports, but the latest tumble have seen uptrend supports shattered.
The actual question becomes "just how low can it go"?... We're in uncharted territory, now.
KD
Internet index closing in on alltime low
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$iix,uu[h,a]daolyyay[d19950101,20020801][pb200][vc60]...
KD
August 1st.
Ouch, that didn't look good today.
Ratty data have really ganged up on the market, this week
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_Yo...
KD
31. July - summary.
Shortterm downtrend not broken for Nasdaq
The most typical short term trend indicator is the 20 day exp. moving average.
Both Nasdaq and Nasdaq100 index failed to break that resistance, yesterday, so the market crash mode is still intact:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]daolyyay[db][pc20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&am...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daolyyay[db][pc20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&...
Consumer confidence and GDP numbers of the last two days have been ratty. Worries for a double-dip will be mounting, now...
My personal bets are still on for a rally by October. My main question remains whether the market will go sidewards or continue down untill then.
I'm tilting towards the latter...
A P/E over 18 of the S&P500 in an environment of 1% yearly growth in GDP, does not sound like a bottom to me...
Other interesting developments:
GE announced today that they'll include stock options as an expense on their quarterly balance sheet as of next quarter. I'm seriously interested in seing by how much it'll revise their P/E...
KD
The dot-com history (sort of)...
How the Internet began:
In ancient Israel, it came to pass that a trader by the name of Abraham Com did take unto himself a young wife by the name of Dot.
And Dot Com was a comely woman, broad of shoulder and long of leg.
Indeed, she had been called Amazon Dot Com.
She said unto Abraham, her husband, "Why doth thou travel far from town to town with thy goods when thou can trade without ever leaving thy tent?"
And Abraham did look at her as though she were several saddlebags short of a camel load, but simply said, "How dear?"
And Dot replied, "I will place drums in all the towns and drums in between to send messages saying what you have for sale and they will reply telling you which hath the best price. And the sale can be made on the drums and delivery made by Uriah's Pony Stable (UPS)".
Abraham thought long and decided he would let Dot have her way with the drums. The drums rang out and were an immediate success.
Abraham sold all the goods he had at the top price, without ever moving from his tent.
But this success did arouse envy. A man named Maccabia did secret himself inside Abraham's drum and was accused of insider trading.
And the young men did take to Dot Com's trading, as doth the greedy horsefly take to camel dung. They were called Nomadic Ecclesiastical Rich Dominican Siderites, or NERDS for short.
And lo, the land was so feverish with joy at the new riches and the deafening sound of drums that no one noticed that the real riches were going to the drum maker, one Brother William of Gates, who bought up every drum company in the land. And indeed did insist on making drums that would work only with Brother Gates drumheads and drumsticks.
Dot did say, "Oh Abraham, what we have started is being taken over by others."
And as Abraham looked out over the Bay of Ezekiel, or as it came to be known, "eBay" he said, "We need a name that reflects what we are'' and Dot replied, "Young Ambitious Hebrew Owner Operators."
"YAHOO", said Abraham,
And that is how it all began
(Ripped off from a Yahoo board...)
KD
"The Economist" on the woes in telecom
http://www.economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=1234886
KD
23/7 - It was the day...
-that the Internet Index fell below 70 and thus ran in a loss of more than 90% from its high (which was just above 700 in the early months of 2000).
-If buying is something one should do when it looks the darkest, then the telecom sector is a good buy, today. Bell South and LU reported a missery in the last couple of days. NT with a billion loss in its last quarter, didn't fare much better, Worldcom is history and Ericsson had a firesale of new shares at a 70% discount, just a week back.
This sector is and has been in for so much disappointment and so much clubbing, that somewhere there MUST be some serious bargains presenting themselves.
If only I knew who...
I'm still staring at EMC, Cisco, Microsoft and other frontrow stocks to buy into, keeping also an eye on smaller competitors Network Appliances, Juniper Networks and Extreme Networks.
My gut feeling is that the ongoing dip won't be the last one. I expect another in October, but no guarantees that it'll go as deep as this one.
After October, I believe we're in for a sustained up-period.
One gamespoiler, however, may be accounting practices...
If stockoptions have to be counted in on the expense-side of reports from here onwards (next year), we're going to se P/Es that will slump by probably 15-20%. The market is going to compensate for that (if it hasn't already done it).
Another word of causion:
Hear-say suggest that historically, bear markets have ended when the average P/E of the S&P 500 has come down to roughly 11. At the moment, the average is closer to 20 (and above, if we count in de-facto expences of stock options).
KD
Microsoft (Meme or anyone)
Microsoft did something very interesting, resently...
They bought out the Danish software company Navision. Now, since I can read Danish newspapers, I'll provide you with a little spin on that buyout, cause many European analysts saw it as highly significant. Here's why:
In the business software department, MSFT has been collaborating with German SAP (actually from the small city Heidelberg, where I lived before moving to Canada). In fact, it was/is a really cosy story, with Bill Gates and the founder and head of SAP being close personal friends...
They have several competitors, some more direct to SAP, some again, a more distant (incl. ORCL).
Navision has for a long time been considered a bit of a jewel - small but very very well positioned in the market and delivering to most of the key players.
So when the bid came up for Navision, many European analysts jumped on the story.
They expected a bidding war and speculated that it might go for two or three times the price it eventually did.
Why? First of all, the surprising bid, was seen as a direct attack on SAP (and to some extend an attack on ORCL) and it was thought that SAP would have to outbid MSFT - not because they needed Navision, but because they cannot afford to let MSFT have it:
A Navision within MSFTs ranks may spell the beginning of the end for Europes largest software producer. In the short to medium term, an end to friendly collaboration between SAP and Microsoft and in the long run, perhaps a direct threat to SAPs existence!
It was also speculated that ORCL might throw in a surprise bid for Navision. Their existence is perhaps not threatened by it becomming a part of Microsoft, but it will still mean that Microsoft has some hefty ideas about moving strongly into a market segnment where ORCL had plans to expand.
Microsoft got its way, and the post mortem of the deal was:
SAP - you may have grown fat on a percieved friendship, but you are in deep deep shit now!
ORCL - prepare for a fight. One is comming your way and it will be on MSFTs terms.
As for MSFT, the verdict was:
MSFT have abandoned their defensive strategy of the court-case period and is firmly back in the saddle. They are not letting their future be desided by others - quite the contrary! They are back and they are back, kicking ass, ladies and gentlemen.
KD
Hi again, Dave.
Long time, man... way longer than I thought.
At times I thought this market would never bottom out again (knock on wood - it's still falling), but if we had "irrational exhuberance" (or however you spell that), I think we're now closer to "irrational depression".
I'm sure some thought the same, when Japan bottomed out somewhere in the second half of the nineties and then dived to the old lows again, today - but this is not Japan!
There's still analysts this week who's recommended "sell into every upturn" and an analyst on "Nightly Business Report" three days ago recommended GE as a good short-play for the next half year, but I'm beginning to think a bit as a contrarian, now.
Just the same, I'm waiting for resistances to break before I buy in again, so right now I'm actually enjoying myself tracking just how low they'll put the bar for people like me...
I hope you're all right, out there, Dave!
Sorry for having failed the board for so long, but the 9/11 aftermath was just not my game for a buy. I couldn't do it... The thought of making money that way turned my stomack sick. So I shut up shop and desided to wait the market out for another opportunity to get in again.
I'll have no reservations buying, this time, when the fruit is ripe and ready to be picked.
It may happen this month - or it will happen in October.
Those are my best guesses.
KD
Yoh, Baily!
Well, this has been a dog market for too long, old boy! But I'll tell you what:
I stopped calling the bottom on anything, a while back. I was lucky to clean out my portfolio when I moved to Canada. Being out of the game has actually put it a little bit back in perspecive and I desided that since I had nothing to average down on, I'd wait for the bottom to form, instead of desperately trying to buy into it (man have I seen many burned fingers and smouldering protfolios because of attempts to predict a bottom).
Now, I'm waiting to the bottom to find itself and then buy, when resistances have been broken and uptrends have formed.
So here's what it looks like for jour JNPR:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=JNPR,uu[h,a]daolyyay[de][pc100][vc60]&pref=G
It's about a dollar from a breakthrough... But it may get there, still.
I've been keeping my eyes open on EMC and it almost got to it. But as the resistance point was met, it started diving again (today, actually)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=EMC,uu[h,a]daolyyay[de][pc100][vc60]&pref=G
But I'm keeping my eyes on her, and when she's ripe, I'm gonna pick her!
As for JDSU:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=JDSU,uu[h,a]daolyyay[de][pc100][vc60]&pref=G
Not on this side of her quarterly, she is - but again, you have to be patient and wait her out...
Good luck to you, Baily.
KD
Tech flameout: Who's benefitting?
Here's an example of a "buy it for pennies on the dollar and gain a competitive edge"
http://www.nwfusion.com/news/2002/0603specialfocus.html
I can't say I like it, but one would be foolish not to pay attention to those companies who manage to reap what they did not sow...
If anyone has clues as to who cashes in on 360 Network, Covad Communications and other communications flameouts, how about making that a returning issue on this board?
KD
Anybody home?
Man, has this market turned into a depression...
Internet index is down 90% with no bottom in sight:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$IIX,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][p][vc60]&pref=G
Nasdaq 100 is off by 80% and no bottom in sight:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][p][vc60]&pref=G
-But, hey - The market is in crashmode and there's reason to think this may be the last dip, this time around.
I expect a beginning tech stock recovery by October (traditionally, October has always been a turningpoint for the better and I think that market is so psyced that no serious buying will happen till then).
My money will be with the leaders, then. My watchlist include CSCO, EMC, AOL & JDSU
My gamble list include the following runnerups:
EXTR, NTAP, OPWV & JNPR
Watch out for the telecom sector! I think we've only seen the tip of the iceberg, when it comes to bankrupcies. I'm not at all sure that ERICY, LU, NT or a half dozen other telecom companies will survive with the debtload they have accumulated. They are having problems just paying their interests...
Hope you're all floating as best you can
Kurt
Little OCCF ran into margin calls...
And look what it did to her:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=OCCF,uu[h,a]daclyymy[d20010101,20011001][p][vc60]
She's now trading at 1x yearly revenue...
I kind of promised myself to stick exclusively with gorillas, but this is tempting...
KD
Chapter 11 for Exodus.
The second former Nasdaq heavyweight to crash in resent months (after COVD).
This is gonna cost GX a gazillion as well...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B82C41C39%2D7D36%2D41A6%2D885C%2D2D2C6DF3F666%7D&am...
Bailey
We are in capitulation mode and it would have come no matter what, IMO – the charts cried it out loud.
My feeling about it all is that last weeks catastrophe did not dictate the collapse (it was already happening), but it has well and truly put a lid on any meaningful rebound (that I was waiting patiently for, for so long) in the short or medium term.
The charts, before the disaster, had been any chart readers wet dreams – the Nasdaq, Nasdaq100, Internet index and what have we of index charts, were getting over-crowded with head-and-shoulders, descending triangles, inverted hammers, shooting stars and what have we, and even loose average-predictions of new price targets, based on those indicators, were upheld practically to the decimals!
Now, that’s all over!
Regrettably, charts cannot predict a bin Laden or what he’s up to (wouldn’t we all wish it were otherwise…) and on the 12th of September, I threw out my charts – they have no meaning anymore! At least not for now…
Now, my gut feeling is that the earning season will turn into yet another warning season and we may hit a local bottom relatively soon, but this bottom will be intermediary, could be adjusted downwards in October and will not be confirmed until perhaps the end of the year. I dare not take my predictions any further and I have no price-targets for anything, anymore.
If anyone still has faith in charts – the base ascending support for the Nasdaq over the last three decades (!) is momentarily at around 1200
KD
May 78 virgins wearing boxing gloves take turns castrating bin Laden with a jackhammer!
(According to the koran, 78 virgins wait in heaven for those who die in holy war).
(Meme, to the best of my knowledge, it doesn’t say anywhere that the 78 virgins must be female...)
I hope the best...
Terrible, terrible, terrible... What can one say, in the wake of such an event...
Given the heartbreaking circumstances, I hope the losses will turn out smaller than anticipated. I cling to the hope that people used their common sence and got out of the WTC after the first crash, given that it has been the focus for terror attacks once before and I hope the relatively high hit of the first plane gave enough people a chance to escape from floors lower down.
The perpetraters can't be gotten as they're already dead, but I hope the people and organizations behind this will be called to justice for their deeds.
In the meantime, I pray that people will stay calm and that we'll have no lynchings from hotheaded blind revenge seekers.
The only right answer/message to this type of beasts is a demonstration (in fact a lesson) in dignified and civilized behaviour.
May the souls of the victims have found peace and may God help and protect those left behind with the pains and losses.
God help us all.
KD
Another doomsday prophecy...
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010825/tc/tech_survivors_dc_2.html
Way too gloomy for my taste.
I believe evolusionary race against extinction is not over by a mile and a half, yet.
Overdepted companies and companies with defunct business models are still 13 to the dozen out there.
I'd agree with Meme that sticking to the absolute gorillas is the thing to do. Even gorillas have shed so much market cap over the last year that they're as attractive as they haven't been for more than 3 years...
KD
Re: Meme
Here's what my tea leaves read:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dc][pb120!a1960][vc60]
A breakthrough of the 1960 level, will see me lining up my ducks.
A breakthrough of the overlying descending resistance (right now at about 2030) will see me buy at once!
I'm not as optimistic as you, but my eyes are open and I'm ready when proven wrong.
KD
PS. How're the assays coming along?
Will we have to rename you ELISA, yet? <G>
PPS. If I'm to mention one thing that could suggest you're right, then it'll be the analyst comment, Friday, that a turnaround in the communications sector can now not be expected untill 2003.
That's BS (ask e.g. JDSU, GLW, NOK or LU if they can predict exactly where they are by the second half of 2002 and then ask if an analyst is able to predict the field better than those companies) of a magnitude that has me suspecting that a desparate analyst haven't gotten enough cheap shares yet and are trying to create one last frantic dip to fill up his portfolio...
Warning season approaching...
The market sentiment is momentarely hysterical and fears of new warnings comming up, is not about to make it any better, IMO.
Today, it hit a few, already.
Of the few that I track, OPWV, EXTR and BRCD were hit.
I see no serious improvement in the near term - perhaps a test of the Nasdaq 1960 resistance, but that, I would guess, would be aborted immediately again.
Merrill Lynch repeated yesterday their call "The market has seen its bottom"
The numbers are illusive, however...
It is still the biotech sector that holds the Nasdaq up. They are not hit by anything signifficant, as many of them are purely at a developmental stage with a "pipeline", have no products, no earnings and therefore no worries about warnings (revenue can't go lower than $0, which is what's expected of them - their worries lies with denied FDA approvals, for many of them goes that FDA approval or no FDA approval is a worry for next year or the one after that...)
For the internet index - it is already down at the early April low again and looks set to go lower still.
The wireless index looks the same.
I'm not aware of a cable/fibre index, but if a such exist I can guess what it looks like...
It'll take untill the end of the October earnings season, before a bottom can form, IMO
KD
keep paddling
-Sorry to sound so pessimistic
Light at the end of the tunnel for internet commerce?
Internet Sales Rose 24% in July, Forrester Research Says
Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK -- Online spending by U.S. consumers jumped 24% in July from June but fell a bit from a year ago, according to Forrester Research Inc.'s Online Retail Index.
Total U.S. online sales were $3.98 billion last month, up from $3.2 billion in June, according to Forrester, a Cambridge, Mass.-based technology research firm.
Last month's sales were lower, however, than the $4.03 billion recorded in July 2000, according to Forrester.
More households -- 14.7 million -- shopped online in July than June, when 13.1 million made Web purchases, Forrester said.
The 24% increase in online spending in July suggests Internet spending is bucking the trend of sluggish retail sales in general. The U.S. government recently reported that retail sales were unchanged in July.
The government numbers, however, don't include sales of airline tickets, car rentals or hotel reservations, which accounted for about one-third of July online sales in Forrester's index.
Spending on these travel categories surged in July, Forrester said. Airline ticket sales, the largest single category in Forrester's index, rose 32% to $ 746.2 million from $566.3 million in June. Online hotel reservations, meanwhile, jumped 42% to $445.2 million from $314.1 million.
Year-over-year, online sales of airline tickets and hotel reservations were up 9% and 16%, respectively.
The online travel sector has emerged as one of the bright spots in electronic commerce this year. Companies such as Expedia Inc. (EXPE), Priceline.com Inc. ( PCLN) and Travelocity.com Inc. (TVLY) recently have exceeded Wall Street's estimates.
Meanwhile, computer hardware sales jumped 45% in July, to $335.8 million from $232.3 million in June. But the July total was below the $337.5 million recorded in July 2000.
Online sales of consumer electronics also increased last month, to $191.9 million from $176.8 million, according to Forrester. They were down significantly, however, from the $250.6 million recorded in June 2000.
Book sales over the Internet rose to $151.6 million in July from $136.6 million in June, Forrester said. Still, they fell from $189.8 million in the year-earlier month.
Forrester compiles its index by asking 5,000 U.S. consumers questions online. It compares those results with a phone survey of 90,000 consumers, completed early this year, to ensure the online index is demographically representative.
"Stocks have yet to bottom" researcher says.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8F15F3A1%2DBBB4%2D4BFD%2DAB6C%2DBC13C48B0BC0%7D&am...
KD
Re: Re: Bailey Re JNPR and Cisco:
By all means do, and know that at least one thing speaks strongly in your/JNPR's favour:
Look at the market cap of JNPR and Cisco and compare that to market coverage and tell me who's more overvalued...
KD
(Hey - spell check!!! I like that! Say, can you make it work, too?... That'd be great!)
Bailey Re JNPR and Cisco:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/cn/20010817/tc/cisco_widens_lead_against_juniper_1.html
KD