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TD Ameritrade Rating Change for JD.com Inc (JD):Downgraded to REDUCE from HOLD on 3/20/20
Because I bought a few thousand shares at $10.00 yesterday with my warrant sales profits, and I have a magic touch.
Actually, the general market is up.
Warrants sold a few days ago. Waited. Buying today with 20% more shares than I would have seen with the redemption.
I have. And while the post you are talking about may have been deleted. As of just a few days ago they were actually recruiting for two more pilots. Do you have a screen grab you can possibly share?
I know, but I wanted it to go up to sell. Can't buy the shares unless I sell the warrants. It is what it is. Right now, SPCE is at $12.29, so I'll just wait. I just don't see four up days in a row. And up days have been 1/2 or less the loss in the previous session. Yesterday Dow down almost 3,000 but only up 451 right now.
Warrants sold. Instead of dealing with the annoyance of having to order my brokers to redeem my warrants (you know you have to tell your broker, or they will expire worthless), I sold all of them, since I know how many shares they are worth. While the market is up today (and from where I sold), I suspect it will come down past current levels for SPCE by EOD Friday, where I will purchase my shares (my target price is $12.20 or lower). If it just keeps going up, I already have shares that will rise with the PPS.
It no longer matters to the warrant holders (they are locked in), although everyone including them (but not shorts) wants a higher PPS.
I don't even think the 7.5% delusion will matter, as the state of the planet will most of all. I've seen dividends declared and buypacks fail to move PPS in the expected direction.
If there was no other news or events happening in the world, which unfortunately is not the case, the share price should decrease by 7.5%, which is equal to the new delusion of the shares representing the warrants through a cashless redemption at the price given.
In Florida as well and looking at Disney as well. Have not sold any SPCE stock, warrants or call options (all still profitable as I bought early). I did sell some covered calls Wednesday that were out of the money and now worthless that expire tomorrow. Doesn't make up for paper losses, but a psychological good feeling.
Perhaps. Next support is $11.21
No problem. I've been a space head since as long as I remember. Even got to see a launch of the shuttle when I was a technology reporter for a magazine called Government Video. It was SO COOL. TV didn't do it justice.
It's May (https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch-schedule/launch-details.php?id=1093). It's a different market. This is a NASA astronaut demo flight. Even when they will go to the ISS, it's different from what SPCE does. And they're not even close to carrying passengers based on all the clearances they will need, plus vertical launch prep for those paying about $10 Million.
Get used to it SPECs are the future of companies going public. And for the record, my warrants are still in the money.
I have now decided that technicals no longer matter. Not a hit on SPCE, same with other stocks.
I think you mean oversold.
If you use Boeing's $20 million investment for 1% of SPCE, and say that is what the capitalization should be based on, SPCE is a $2 billion company. But since that was an early investor, it should now be a multiple, so I'll use both 1.5X and 2X:
1.5X: $3 billion
2X: 4$ billion
Current market cap at $16.62/share ~$3.261B
Make of this what you may. I think we're oversold...but this is not a trade, but an investment.
New next support is $16.50. Already tested once.
Wrote too soon.
Still haven't hit $17.10 support... Yet.
Next two support levels: $17.10, $11.36
Next two resistance levels: $24.09, $25.98
TD Amertirade: ResearchTeam Rating Change: Upgrade to HOLD from REDUCE on 3/9/20
Concur. Not a good first article. Especially one that pushes the author's short position, regardless of his disclosure.
I was the first comment, as he had an error that needed to be fixed. He neglected the weight on wheels announcement on the second craft. Shoddy short research.
Thank you for taking the time as well.
Glad you enjoyed it. I just wanted to deal with all the hype (both long and short) that's out there. I appreciate the time you took to read and reply.
Only if it breaks support at 20.11, which it will probably do.
If interested, please see my Seeking Alpha blog post "Virgin Galactic: Understanding The WTF?" at https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/191735-mikeylv/5416955-virgin-galactic-understanding-wtf
My error.
Actually Virgin Group Sold Virgin Atlantic to Alaska Airlines, which now owns the brand.
The 8k number and the $1k for front of line don't really correlate. I suspect a 35% conversion rate in the 8k.
For those wondering about warrant dilution. The dilution was baked in from Day 1 in the initial filings for the business combination. In fact, the last S1 filing LOWERED (fractionally) the number of underlying shares. Here's the numbers:
30,998,625 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of 30,998,625 issued and outstanding warrants to purchase the registrant’s common stock.
Shares of Common Stock Outstanding Prior to Exercise of All Warrants 195,154,475 (as of February 5, 2020)
Shares of Common Stock Outstanding Assuming Exercise of All Warrants 226,153,100 (based on total shares outstanding as of February 5, 2020)
Dilution = 15.89%
Really? Where? Here's the transcript of the Q&A.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
At this time, we will begin our Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Adam Jonas
Thanks everybody. And George, question for you. Just kind of upfront, what do you think of the share price here?
George Whitesides
Hi, Adam, and hi, everybody. Nice to be with you. And I think we're just going to keep executing and that's really what we're focused on, run our team full of space engineers, and what we're best at is just keeping our heads down and focused on the engineering. So that's basically what I think.
Adam Jonas
Okay. I appreciate that. I asked because you clearly established you got a lot of cash on the balance sheet and there's some items that could kind of continue that moving up, whether it's the One Small Step program and then potentially the items related to the S-1.
But as I saying that sometimes the best time to raise capital is when you don't need it, you don't need it. But given the enormity of the opportunity that you've established in this really excellent presentation, some investors might wonder, given volatile market conditions and an opportunity to really exercise that first-mover advantage, what is the logic for not raising more capital here? And I'm referring specifically beyond the warrants related to potential transaction. Can you tell us why you don't need – don't want to use a potential opportunity to raise even more?
George Whitesides
Adam, I mean I think the thing that is exciting about Galactic is that we have in front of us an initial market opportunity that we believe is strong and highly profitable. But what's even more exciting in some ways is that the technology that we are developing as part of that first phase can lead into a future phase that can really transform the global transportation market. And that's something that we have a team thinking about right now. That is some of the smartest folks that I've ever met. And they're working really hard on this subject back in Mojave, California and in other places.
And so I think we're going to take a staged approach to this. We're really going to be thinking carefully about how we roll it out. I look forward to sharing more information with the market as we go forward in our thinking process and our design process. But I've been gratified by the excitement that I think people have felt about this opportunity to like, really transform how we move around the planet. And I think that we're gratified by the share price, and as always, we'll look at the entire situation and keep monitoring. But right now, we're really focused on the engineering.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of [Daryl Spingarn] from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Robert Spingarn
Hi, good afternoon. It's Rob Spingarn.
George Whitesides
Hey, Rob.
Robert Spingarn
Hey, George, and Jon. I got a couple of questions for both of you.
George Whitesides
Yes.
Robert Spingarn
I wanted to start George with the One Small Step and I ask you how large that next tranche of seats that you're planning to release would be and what kind of pricing you're thinking about?
George Whitesides
Yes. So that's a very important question. And I mean, I think, we will be sharing more information on both our premium pricing strategy and the number of seats that we will be releasing over the course of the year. Right now, we're very focused on the rollout of the Small Step program.
And what I like to say is, really think of our approach to the market as a sort of a funnel, right? So if you have it up at the top, you have around 2 million, a little bit less than 2 million folks who have over $10 million of net worth. And then we've had this 8,000 – roughly 8,000 folks who've now expressed a desire to buy a ticket with us, which by the way, I mean I think, frankly that to me was the great surprise that we've been looking forward to sharing with folks today, because it was sort of ticking up by a few hundred and then recently it's just a – it started going up by leaps and bounds. And that's just a really exciting validation of what we're trying to do and what we're trying to build.
So if you sort of think, okay, well first level is this large group of people that can afford it, the next group is the number of people who sort of said that they want to buy it. And then if you go down to the bottom of the funnel, you have these 600 folks who've already put down either a full or substantial deposit representing $80 million of deposits and about $120 million, $130 million of future business.
What that Small Step allows us to do, which is what we're announcing today and we'll open tomorrow, is a chance for us to start to really identify the folks who are most eager to jump in on that next tranche of flights. And as we go forward, we may even see another tranche in there. But basically what we're trying to do is to just help our customers and our prospects move through the sales funnel because it's a tremendous amount of people, obviously we think and we've expressed to the street, in the past that we think we're going to be a supply constraint business for a while just because even if we build these five ships, it's not adding too much capacity in our market. And so we really want to make sure we're focused on folks.
Now in terms of the premium pricing, this is – as many of the folks on the phone know, we do plan on going back into the market with a higher price point. We think that that's justified by the extreme interest that we're seeing as well as the great product that we'll be offering and Beth Moses validated last year. So we'll be talking more about that over the course of the year. And we know that there's a lot of interest in that. Today, we're really focused on Small Step getting that right, rolling it out and having a great introduction of that and connecting with these thousands of people who have said that they're interested in buying a ticket.
Robert Spingarn
Okay. And if I'm still in the queue here, I wanted to ask you if we could go back to…
George Whitesides
Fairly, you are.
Robert Spingarn
Okay, good. I have a couple more.
George Whitesides
Okay.
Robert Spingarn
If we go back to the Slide 17, you talked about the three areas.
George Whitesides
Yes.
Robert Spingarn
And when you’re updating the test program, so the flight test and customer experience and readying the vehicles, what are the key gating items among those three that you need to get through to get to this first commercial flight? And are you still on schedule for mid-summer, it sounded before like the schedules influx a little bit as you get everything as perfect as you need it.
George Whitesides
Yes. Well, as you know, our number one priority is to fly safely, and not just Sir Richard, but anybody we fly, whether it's the pilots that we fly or employees that we might fly in the late test flight program. That's our number one priority. What we're affirming today, as you know, that were our number one priority is to fly Richard Branson into space on a commercial flight in 2020. That's what our entire organization is really – they know that's the top priority.
I don't mind breaking out a little bit more detail in terms of these three areas. I did talk about it a little bit during those remarks. In terms of the finishing the test flight program, you're going to be needing to do some glide flights and some rocket-powered flights obviously in terms of the end-to-end customer experience. It's not just the in-flight experience, it's also the on the ground experience. It's even the – before you get to spaceport experience, we really are working really hard on all of those phases. But obviously a lot of – there's going to be a lot of focus on the cabin experience and the seats and the suits and the [indiscernible] between all of those things.
And then the third thing is readying the vehicles for long-term high rate service. I talked a little bit about that in my comments. So we really want to make that a big focus because we know ultimately the amount of revenue that we generate in 2020 is really not a thing that's going to make this company a great success. What's going to make it a great success is having a vehicle that we can turn around relatively rapidly and do that on a consistent basis, and then build a fleet of them, so that we can add more capacity into the market. So those are the things that we're really going to be focused on as we go forward.
And as we've have to-date, we look forward to communicating progress on key milestones. We're going to keep people updated as we go through that, both with the test program, but also the build program in Mojave and the Spaceport America operational readiness. I will say one thing, moving Unity our first spaceship down to New Mexico was a big deal. It was a big deal on a technical basis, getting that vehicle down there. We had a great flight down. We're able to do some test points on the way down because it was a three hour.
We had three hours of cold soak on the way, but also a big deal for the team, particularly the team in New Mexico who have – now had, I think around 70 folks have relocated, joining a team already there building up. So it's a big milestone to have both vehicles down in New Mexico. And what I'm really focused on next is, the next glide flight, where we'll be able to see Spaceship Unity flying free above New Mexico sky.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Darryl Genovesi from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Darryl Genovesi
Hi guys. Thanks for the time.
George Whitesides
Hey, Darryl.
Jon Campagna
Hey, Darryl.
Darryl Genovesi
Hey. George or if Steven is in the room, when I look at your chart where you show the progression of the addressable market from the $10 million plus to the 1% to 5%, I guess, I can't help, but think of how you plan to sort of test elasticity around sort of initial price points and how you ultimately make the decision as to whether or not you want to proceed down that path?
Do you have any thoughts around how to get – you said you're going to give us some more comments on pricing as we progress through the year, but just wondering how you're sort of thinking about the forward progression specifically?
George Whitesides
Yes. I mean you're probably aware that there's a variety of ways both private and public that then you can use to test market pricing and elasticity. Obviously, we're very focused on it. We have some of the best advisers in the world on this stuff. And so we're using a few different methods.
I think what is clear is that there's a huge desire to get in on early flights, however you define that. There is a desire to fly with a special people. The number of people who love to fly with Richard is large, but there are other people who will be flying with us. And then there's – we even see a fair amount of folks who want to fly by themselves. They're like a couples or charter flights, things like that.
And so there's going to be a variety of ways that we layer in different types of experiences. This won't be like sort of a single experience thing, where we maybe able to add premium pricing packages that I think will be really great for the customers, but also good for the company as well.
The other thing that is exciting is obviously, the pricing that we're seeing in the research market is great. Even if pricing that is very good for us, it's still hugely cheaper than trying to send something up to an orbital facility. And so I think we're going to be able to make good progress on that as well. And of course, NASA is talking about human tended – funding human-tended flights on – they are considering that. They put out some kind of document on that. So I think there's a lot of interesting opportunities for premium pricing.
Operator
At this time, we would like to thank everyone for joining Virgin Galactic's fourth quarter and full-year 2019 earnings conference call. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
No price given. Here's the transcript on the two slides related to "Growth Strategy III: High Speed Global Mobility" / "Hypersonic Point to Point Travel":
Turning to Slide 24. While our primary focus is on commercializing human spaceflight, we believe that we can leverage our robust platform of advanced technologies, significant design, engineering and manufacturing experience and extensive past and future flight data to develop additional aerospace applications, most notably centered on high-speed global mobility.
High-speed global mobility technology is already a key focus for military and other government applications, particularly in the missile space. We see huge opportunities to apply high-speed global mobility to the commercial aviation market to drastically reduce travel time, such as the example we have here that shows how a hypersonic vehicle could reduce the L.A. to Tokyo flight time by nine hours. Even supersonic flight could have a dramatic impact on global markets, enabling new activities and connecting the world more closely.
Turning to Slide 25. Virgin Galactic is already well positioned today to develop this technology and we believe we are significantly ahead of our potential peers. Ours is the only team designing, building and flying a commercial crewed vehicle today that can travel at supersonic speeds, which we believe gives us an immense first-mover advantage.
We are further bolstered by our partnership with Boeing, which we believe will enable us to further develop our high-speed technology. Our team also benefits from our co-located vertically integrated design and manufacturing stack. In addition, our flight system, a winged system with a horizontal launch and landing architecture means that we are compatible with the existing airport infrastructures around the world capable of being sequenced into existing airport patterns and local air networks.
We have a focused and experienced project team dedicated to developing and applying high-speed global mobility technology and we are looking to build this team out further.
Finally, we can leverage the experience and insight from Virgin Group’s other airlines. In this respect, we are pleased to have the experience of former Virgin Atlantic CEO, Craig Krieger on our Board of Directors.
So looking ahead, our vision is to have a customer-driven, environmentally sustainable fleet of commercially viable vehicles with premium end-to-end service with rapid global reach saving a precious resource, time. We believe a fleet of winged, high-speed vehicles would easily integrate into existing aerospace and airport infrastructure for accelerated adoption and create value for operators who would be accessing significant new market opportunities.
As a foundation for this work, we are focused on creating IP and material science, analysis tools, propulsion, sustainable fuels, manufacturing, guidance and navigation, and other supporting technologies for high-speed applications with aero-derivative technologies developed that can provide direct benefit to all.
Warrant Holders: In case you didn't know, or didn't catch it yesterday, you can NOT redeem your warrants at the current time, cashless or with cash, as the underlying shares don't exist. The recently filed S1 to register the underlying shares has not yet been approved by the SEC. Also, on yesterday's call, it was stated that VG is still unsure whether they will call them for redemption once the underlying shares are approved, as they don't need the money from the $11.50 strike price.
Once approved, you can redeem them, but it is not clear whether it would be cashless or for cash. VG said they wouldn't even think about the warrants until the SEC approved the underlying shares.
Please keep in mind, that if VG does not call the warrants for redemption, that it is the sole responsibility of the warrant holder to either sell the warrants on the open market or have your broker arrange for redemption.
First, where did you hear that? Nothing was disclosed by the company. Second, any executive who values their time (did you not see/hear the earnings report?), will gladly pay a premium to be able to fly and work the same day. Right now, minor execs take first or business at thousands of dollars and MANY CEOs have a private jet at their disposal...but it's still slow. I know two CEOs of publicly traded companies that would give their left nuts to be able to fly to Europe or Asia (well, not today) and be able to work in the office, fly and work overseas.
Considering the current price is above $30, he's already wrong. But I'll give the benefit of the doubt that he means closing price, so we shall see.
Just go to their website, go to the investor relations area and download and read the earnings slides from yesterday. That should give you an idea of what they are doing now and into the future, as well as the projected customer base for just space travel.
But it's not 40 %