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Thanks for the alert on CRNT. $150M contract looks like pretty terrific news! I snagged a few premarket in the $2.50's. Not sure if it's kinda done for the day...or if some added momo during regular hours will take it up towards $3. Hoping for the latter.
Thought the TAYD revenue decline might weigh on the stock more than it did today. Otherwise I would have grabbed a bunch more at the open. The sequential backlog jump is great news, as is buying back that chunk of shares.
I wouldn't be chasing the stock at $28. Still undervalued with the balance sheet, and momo players probably take it higher with the markets rampaging again. But the stock has already had one heck of a run (what hasn't). TAYD was a popular name on this board in the low teens, just over a year ago. And the stock has looked cheap this whole time.
I'm guessing TAYD bounces around in the mid-high $20's, but who knows. I already flipped my shares after today's hefty gain. Would be a buyer again on a dip below $25, but might need a broader market selloff for that to happen.
Who cares on TAYD. The stock was available at the open at $24.02. I know because I bought some there. Now the stock is near $28. So those who bought the positive report this morning are up 16% in less than a day. While those whining about the liquidity just talked themselves out of a nice gain.
GEOS popping another 11% today to the $14's. Wish I'd grabbed a few on the positive news late Wed. Also was tempted to buy GEOS when it dipped to the $10's last month. But never pulled the trigger. Dang
Good luck on ESOA. Maybe it'll overcome the heavy seasonality. I just don't see Q1 earnings of .05-.10/share next month (and that would be a GREAT quarter considering the seasonality) moving the stock up very much from $6. And what happens if the numbers aren't so hot...they post a loss, or backlog takes a hit sequentially, etc...stock will get whacked. So the risk/reward into earnings isn't overly attractive up at these levels imo
I thought you sold ESOA in the $4.90's AH recently. Now you're bullish again near $6? Seems like you should be doing the opposite.
Stock was in the $3's a few weeks ago, so it's more of a trader for me up here. Still might be slightly undervalued, but the easy money has been made imo. I'd be a buyer again on a dip towards $5.
We'll know more when they report fiscal Q1 earnings next month. The next 2 quarters are seasonally weak. So I don't plan to hold a big position into the Q1 numbers. I think your earnings target of $1/share going forward is extremely aggressive. As they just posted fantastic results for the year, and earned .44/share.
Sold all but a token on OPXS. Just too tempting with the stock rocketing from the low $4's to the high $6's during the past couple weeks, on a Q4 we knew would be good. Q1 will be down a bit sequentially (though a fantastic year-over-year comp) and there's been no new order announcements since mid November.
Nice bounce on PFE lately. Congrats to those playing. But the stock was near all time lows? Hardly.
Gotcha on GCT. It's a volatile stock for sure. Good luck. No concerns on the high scam potential here? Another short hit piece and the stock could quickly get cut in half imo
GCT very promising at $20?? Calls make sense in case it's a total scam, but why not a month ago around $10?
I didn't see anything in the SIF 10K filing this morning. Was hoping maybe a 1-timer hit Q4 or something.
Their loan stuff not sounding great. Curious why management doesn't seem to feel a sense of urgency on improving the bottom line. When they'd better get to profitability soon...or the company may be in serious trouble...
From the 10K-
On November 8, 2023, the Company entered into the Eighth Amendment to the Credit Agreement with its lender which reduced the Reserves under the Borrowing Base in the Credit Agreement to $1,500, or such lesser amount, if any, as may be agreed upon in writing by the Lender in its sole discretion. See Note 5, Debt and Subsequent Event for more information.
On December 21, 2023, the Company entered into the Ninth Amendment to the Credit Agreement and the Fourth Amendment to the Export Credit Agreement with its lender. The Ninth Amendment amends the Credit Agreement to, among other things, (i) reduce the Revolving Credit Agreement to $19,000, (ii) modifies the loan maturity date to October 4, 2024; (iii) incurred a secured subordinated loan from Garnet Holdings, Inc., a California corporation owned and controlled by Mark J. Silk (“GHI”) of $3,000 (iv) full personal guarantee from Mr. Silk; (v) maintains the Reserves under the Borrowing Base in the ABL Credit Agreement at $1,500, increasing on the first day of each month by $250, commencing on May 1, 2024 and continuing until (and including) August 1, 2024, or such a lesser amount, if any, as may be agreed upon in writing by the Lender in its sole discretion; (vi) modify the Applicable Margin schedule to reflect the following applicable rates to 2.75% (CBFR REVSOFR30), 0.25% (CBFR Spread (CB Floating Rate)), 2.75% (SOFR Spread), and 0.50% (Commitment Fee Rate) The Fourth Amendment of the Export Credit Agreement, which lends amounts to the Company on foreign receivables remained unchanged at $7,000 million, and extends the loan maturity date to October 4, 2024. See Note 5, Debt and Subsequent Event for further information.
On December 21, 2023, the Company issued a Subordinated Secured Promissory Note (the “Subordinated Promissory Note”) in the original principal amount of $3,000, on the terms and subject to the conditions of: (a) a Subordinated Secured Promissory Note in the original principal amount of $3,000 issued by borrowers to GHI, (b) a Subordination and Intercreditor Agreement (the “Subordination Agreement”) by and among borrowers, GHI and Lender, and (c) a Side Letter by and among borrowers and Mark J. Silk (the “Fee Letter,” and together with the Subordinated Promissory Note and Subordination Agreement, the “Subordinated Loan Documents”). Interest accrues at a rate of 14% per annum. See Note 5, Debt and Subsequent Event for further information.
SIF reported late Friday. And it was about what you'd expect from a Friday afterhours report before a long holiday weekend.
Q4 revenues were good, but the bottom line stunk. Was expecting another loss but seems like a deterioration from Q3 results. Yes there was a $1.5M gain that helped the Q3 bottom line. But even excluding that, the Q4 bottom line was weaker sequentially despite the revenue jump from $21.9M to $24.6M. Profitability looks like a long ways off. Backlog still strong, although down a touch sequentially. Stock selling off some premarket, as it should imo
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sifco-industries-inc-sifco-announces-000000250.html
LCUT popping 15% today. Don't see any news. Happy to flip my shares. Wish I'd grabbed more in the $5's just a few days ago!
Why I like the easy comp on GLGI. Gives us some leeway. Even if the quarter is kinda meh, could still be a hefty improvement vs last year.
One other potential catalyst on GLGI. They've talked about moving up to Nasdaq. Seem to meet all the requirements other than stock price (obviously would need a reverse split for that). If GLGI was able to get a Nasdaq listing in 2024, the stock would get a significant re-rating higher. Like a 50% gain or more imo. Won't hold my breath though.
Yep on GLGI. I got the same impression from the last CC. Numbers will be down a bit sequentially (fine with me as Q1 was a terrific quarter). Still should be a healthy jump from the prior year Q2 though, both top & bottom lines. I'm hoping for a .03-.04 quarter, but maybe that's too optimistic. Outlook should continue to be bullish based on the other CC commentary.
Yep pretty crazy on GCT & DRCT. Apparently traders can't be bothered by whether or not the company is a total fraud. Just a minor detail!
Wow DRCT over $16. And the company never refuted the fraud allegations. So the company might be a complete scam? Who cares...let's buy!
Oh I posted a link to the DBGI prospectus. Check the filings this morning. Major dilution. But not a surprise. Because that's what they do. Share count was 373,498 last quarter. Up from 21,150 the prior year. Over a 17 FOLD increase in the share count. According to today's filing, the share count is now over 1M. And it's going to keep rising. Til the next reverse split. I would run in the other direction from this dumpster fire.
Yeah maybe it'll be an unforeseen geopolitical event that knocks the market for a loop in 2024. Guess there's always that risk. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems inevitable...but hopefully that's a few years off.
And DBGI pops 13% on news of ~60% dilution. Haha markets not frothy at all...
GLGI sold off to the .80's. I picked up a few more shares. Looks like an attractive hold into earnings next month, as should be a great looking comp. But maybe today's seller knows something I don't.
What's with the selloff today??
Enjoyed your market discussion with researcher yesterday. I'm more in the early 2024 selloff camp, but who knows. A January correction would make sense with people harvesting such huge gains in recent weeks. Maybe it makes too much sense ha. Things usually don't work out so neatly. With the Fed talking rate cuts now, hard to see the markets selling off too much.
DBGI firing up the printing presses again. Doesn't sound like many shares. But when you look at the market cap...it is. Still say why mess with this dilution machine. The deck is stacked against you. As the share count goes higher & higher...the stock price will be forced lower & lower. Just look at the one year chart.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668010/000110465923129787/tm2333779-1_424b5.htm
Thanks for the list of tax loss plays. You seem to have a knack for finding Jan effect winners, so I'll take a look. As for FORD...I still think an ok gamble around .70 with the low float and rare CEO optimism. Saw in the 10K filing that they lost a large OEM distribution customer in March 2023. Used to be 12% of revenue. So that'll be a drag on top line comps for the next couple of quarters. Also they're doing a small reverse split next month to keep their Nasdaq listing. Probably a better buying opportunity either right before or right after the reverse.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/38264/000168316823009067/forward_ipre14a.htm
Nice FEIM pop over $11. Thought this one was still a bit undervalued in the mid-high $9's recently. Now not so much. Taking some profits today.
Looking forward to the new contest picks. So many stocks have run wild in this red hot market. I can't recall a time when it was so difficult to find attractive stocks to buy. Usually there's dozens & dozens, if not hundreds, that look cheap to me. But right now I'm struggling to find 4 stocks for the contest! And with the yearend ramp in progress, it looks like things will get even frothier by Friday.
Yeah that was weird on UUU. Think it was down 30% that day it dropped to the $1.20's. After the stock had already sold off sharply from $4+. Guess someone puked out a large position for a tax loss.
Wish I'd bought more aggressively in hindsight. Won't kick myself too hard as the UUU results last quarter were terrible. The fiscal Q2 revenue plunge after a string of good quarters is also a mystery. Stock seems fairly valued around $2, as not much appeal other than the low float imo
Favorable PCE numbers this morning giving the market yet another boost. Although it's interesting that major stocks ORCL, FDX, and NKE have all gotten whacked this month after disappointing earnings reports. Maybe things aren't so great...
It's a fair point on ESOA. But they're also benefiting from the massive infrastructure bill. All I know is despite those monster Q4 numbers, the backlog went UP by over $40M sequentially. So it sounds like business is still pretty good short-term, if not booming.
There was a Form 4 filing today after the close. A director sold some shares this week. Looks like normal profit taking, but if we see more insiders selling shares...then it could be a signal we're closer to a peak.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1357971/000110465923128332/xslF345X05/tm2333554-1_4seq1.xml
Wow crazy rebound on DRCT! Company never refuted the fraud allegations in the short report. And with the stock recovering from down near $7 last Wednesday to almost $14 today...they didn't need to!
Speaking of low floaters below $1, thought FORD had an encouraging report late yesterday. Annual results nothing special, as revenues & earnings from cont operations both down. But if I'm crunching the numbers right, it looks like Q4 earnings from cont operations were over .02/share. And the CEO sounded the most bullish I've heard him in years-
Terry Wise, Chief Executive Officer of Forward Industries, stated “Having discontinued retail operations, the company’s continuing operations were profitable in fiscal 2023, cash positive and on a path of substantive growth. I am particularly pleased to report that our subsidiary within our design division, IPS, achieved historically high revenues and profitability. Having completed the turnaround of the business, during the next fiscal year we will seek to grow our organic businesses significantly. We will also pursue suitable acquisition/venture opportunities. Thus, I am excited for the Company’s prospects over the next fiscal year as I am optimistic it will be profitable and one of noteworthy growth.”
We'll see what happens. If they post Q1 earnings of .02+/share in February (hardly a guarantee...I mean it is FORD), stock should get a bump higher. I snagged a few shares and will be accumulating. Like our chances of a low float spike to the $1's sometime in 2024.
Full PR-
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forward-reports-preliminary-fiscal-2023-210900763.html
Yep OPXS now up 12%. Looks like we're gonna see $6+ by today's close! Def sold some too soon yest. Been a common theme all year with the market on steroids.
Yeah I was gonna post about MITQ breaking $1. Then they dropped the bid ha. Saw some people pumping it on stocktwits. Maybe this low floater will shoot higher just because the market is hot.
The OPXS run continues. Popping another 9% on volume. Nobody wanted it in the low $4's. But they love it up 40%. Will be interesting to see how high the momo crowd chases this one. $6's? $7's?
So you already bailed on ESOA? Guess not a surprise. Wish I'd known you were selling in the $4.90's yest AH. I woulda had some buy orders in!
Q4 was an absolute blockbuster. With revenues over $100M, earnings over .30/share, and backlog increasing sequentially by over $40M. Backlog up to a whopping $229.8 million as compared to $142.3 million last year. Annual revenues increased over 50%, with earnings nearly doubling to .44/share. Yes lots of seasonality, but same story with VIRC. And look at that chart. I don't see ESOA going to the $9's, but there's still plenty of upside potential from $5 imo.
Challenging the highs near $6 would be a quick 20% gain, which is better than most of the stocks I'm looking at. And momo players could take it even higher. Especially with the broader markets off to the races again. I'll gladly rebuy some ESOA shares in the $4's if given the chance.
Yep futures rocking this morning. Looks like we're gonna quickly regain the losses from yesterday. A brutal 2 hour correction ha
Ugly close too. Been on such a sugar high lately, think I'd forgotten stocks can go down. Will be interesting to see how she trades tomorrow. Quick rebound...or more pain to come?
Markets going very red all of a sudden. Is there some news out there?
Looks like good timing on the short so far!
Another good day for OPXS. New multi-year highs over $5. And blasted through some huge blocks on the ask. Still undervalued, but I sold a few into the strength.
Yeah nice pop on ADFJF. Thanks for finding this undervalued stock. Wish I'd grabbed more in the $4's now.