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I didn't read them as "doubts" so much as legitimate concerns. Nothing about running a company, bringing a product or service to market is a given -- it takes hard work, experience, and a little luck.
JBI seems to have all the right ingredients so far to succeed. But when we all see that and then wonder why the stock hasn't soared (for most of us), we need to ask questions. Bueno ask and answers them, and... we can all contribute our ideas.
S.
To most on this board anything short of a blind-faith whole-hearted endorsement of JBI or J.B. himself is heresy.
Why don't people dissect & challenge bueno's post with facts, instead of just blasting it?
I say again, bueno's posts are thought-provoking and realistic (albeit with a pessimistic slant, I admit).
He has several things right: there are PLENTY of P2O competitors, and being such a new space it's likely there will come more. Just because others don't have a catalyst, doesn't mean they will go out of business. Also, there are others who recover tape data ... maybe not as well, but they are doing it and they are getting paid for it. That makes them a competitor. To say there is NO competition is just ignorant.
I agree that the revenue numbers for FY2009 will likely (IMO) not move this stock beyond its current range, for most of the reasons bueno gives.
Now if you feel differently and are intelligent enough to explain why, please do so on this board so we don't spend our time reading only flames.
S.
I wonder this myself. JBI has stated that with their catalyst then can generate oil for the equivalent of $10/barrel. They also state that without the catalyst, it's "not profitable".
But Envion claims $10/barrel also, and a yield of 1 litre per kg of plastic. The extra energy input for microwaves or heat that other processes use cannot truly account for more than a couple of bucks per barrel. I mean electricity still only costs 15c / kWh (well, last time I lived in North America anyway, 12 years ago). So I would also be very interested to know the difference.
However, I believe their super low up-front costs, the [tiny] size of the processor (only needs 80m2 / 800ft2), and their franchise model will be what make this take off.
Again.. I long for some clarity on the conf call.
S.
That's not a given. Granted, the "franchisees" are supposed to pay up-front $400k for 2 processors. But these are JV's, not franchises, so the word "joint" in JV tells me that the operator won't be paying all of that.
And of the $400k, how much does each processor cost to build & ship to the site? I don't imagine there's a ton of margin in there.
Just my $0.02 worth.
S.
IMO, the single (at this point) processor they have could generate some revenue for Q4, but the intent it to use it initially as a full-scale test bed for fine-tuning the process.
However, they could still process 5-10 tons / day and sell it to refineries, but for this FY, that wouldn't amount to much more than say $150k (based on math previously posted).
This is not significant as revenue, but it's very significant as the promise of the possibilities for the 50 JV processors that should come on-line in H1 2010.
S.
My guess is that it spits out $2m+ in annual revenue too!
S.
Anybody else just simply NOT get nervous at all when this dips to almost a buck? While I'm eager to see it rise, I'm more able to be patient with JBII than anything else I hold.
I only wish I'd some cash left over to pick up more at these prices.
Path to the moon:
1. conf call
2. institutional investors on-board
3. NASDAQ
4. quarterly profit > $5m
I've never been to the moon before, but with JBII I have a non-refundable ticket.
S.
Like a kid in a candy store.. I can't help myself.
s.
otcbb.com has a better history:
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/quote_module.asp?qm_page=85509&symbol=JBII
S.
I sure was.
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IMHO, a few things can help lift JBII into the limelight:
1. institutional investors on-board
2. PR, PR and more PR
3. listing on a better exchange
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Yes, the ISIN for XCEL is US98388V1070. I am in Switzerland, and this is the ISIN I used for my orders.
S.
Yeah, I guess I assumed the large processor was also the Blest design, but simply manufactured in China. If not, I'm afraid I don't recall reading more about this.
S.
I believe the processor is designed by a Japanese company called Blest. If I'm not mistaken, it's their processor design but with the JBI catalyst making it much more efficient and higher quality output.
Sorry if this is incorrect -- I may be confusing different companies here.
http://www.blest.co.jp/
Those of you with a premium iHub account can search for "Blest".. I cannot with my free account. Not sure where I read about this though.
S.
Oops, I stand corrected.
S.
Grantg2, I recall the posting about this theory indeed. Like I said, it's not surprising. Nevertheless, it has never been confirmed by a JBI employee. And while many of us get 95% of our information on this board, it's by no means an official news source for JBI.
Also, the e-mail that some of us got from Katie @ JBI saying that they are in the process of establishing 25 franchises in the USA and are NOT going to open up others until they have these operational, made no mention of Mexico being in the plans either.
So like I said -- it's good news and not unexpected. I just wish (and I'm not alone) that we could get this kind of information in a more structured/formal way.
The CC will clearly be a tremendously insightful event -- to hear it from the horse's mouth!
S.
Anybody else find it odd that there is information on JB's Facebook posts that aren't otherwise published in a formal manner to shareholders?
Mexico... P2O? It's not surprising, but I'd have preferred to learn this earlier as a shareholder.
Also, a global monitoring network of P2O processors? a.k.a SCADA??
I guess this is the day I finally setup a Facebook account!
S.
DVD Documentary: Addicted to Plastic
http://www.crypticmoth.com/plastic.php
I ordered and have received this DVD, in which they pay a visit to the famous ocean plastic garbage patch. Although I have only watched the first 15 minutes, it's evident from the first scenes on-site, as it were, that there isn't going to be a JBI oil tanker there.
It may be an area of ocean the size of western Europe, but the pieces of plastic are few and far between, and 80% of their mass when pulled from the water is barnacles. So while JBI can do "unwashed and mixed plastic", I doubt it can do "waterlogged and laden with sea urchins" too
Nevertheless, seems like a good DVD to get if you're investing in a company that will reduce plastic waste.
S.
Just a personal preference, but if the CC has to around Nov 5,6, I have a strong pref for the 6th, and in the afternoon. Otherwise, my strongest pref is actually the week after.
But OK, I'm one guy and it has 0% to do with my availability and 100% to do with JBI management's.
Just for what it's worth...
S.
When I look at that address with google maps, it even shows "Dickler Chemical Laboratories", so .. seems like the right place.
http://tinyurl.com/yzjksw2
And since Google's never wrong....
S.
P.S. you can almost make out their logo:
http://tinyurl.com/yg8xblv
http://dclsolutions.com/DCL/images/dicklersm.jpg
He'll win it for sure if JBI pays the GPGP (Great Pacific Garbage Patch) a visit with an oil tanker loaded with P2O processors ... LOL.
S.
Any chance of more photos/video of the assembling of the machine and the site at which it will sit?
Would be nice to see more of what it is we're investing in!
S.
I have a couple more high-level questions I'd like to add.
P2O: Have you done a competitive analysis on this market, as P2O is making a lot of noise lately and there appears to be many up-coming competitors. Can you qualify and quantify JBI's competitive advantages and/or discuss barriers to entry for the competition?
General: Can you comment on the competitive analysis & potential market size for each of: Pak-It, P2O, Javaco?
Thanks,
S.
RPG, I guess it's not insider information if you publicly give us all advice on what to ask! You know more than us I suppose!
Feel free to contribute questions indeed!
Regarding Pak-It, I don't have real specific questions other than what's implied in my first one: what's the expected contribution to the revenue?
OK, actually, now I can think of some:
Where is Pak-It sold today (geographically), and where will JBII push it in the future.
How (e.g. selling it as white-labeled to a brand, licensing the concept, etc.)?
What is the target market (industrial and/or consumer) for the products?
Is the product line complete, or will it be augmented?
S.
Great additions bueno, thanks.. thinking long-term I see!
I forgot about those media credits!
S.
Questions for John Bordynuik, CEO of JBII
OK, here we go...... this is my list of questions that I'd like covered on the conference call:
Overall Business Plan Questions
. Explain the grand vision since acquiring a controling stake in 310 Holdings: what was the long-term objective, and has that changed?
. Explain each of the acquisitions thus far (Pak-It, DCL, Javaco), their strategic advantage & synergies with JBI as part of a combined entity, and their projected individual contributions to revenue.
. Are there more acquisitions planned? If so, what synnergies do you look for?
. listing on NASDQA -- still in the cards? Expected timeframe?
. You said there is interest from Funds or Institutional Investors -- can you shed more light on this?
. Can we hear from the other members of the new Management Team on the call, just to get a feel for them, their visions, and level of enthusiasm?
. Are you able to give any formal or informal guidance on revenue, costs, income for the coming quarters?
P2O Questions
. The full-scale processor has arrived -- what can you tell us about the tests thus far?
. Is it true the processor is "mobile"?
. What price will refineries give you for the fuel output?
. Please explain the timeframe and revenue expectations for the 25 JV's you're setting up in the US
. Please discuss the timeframe for rolling out the franchise framework globally.
Tape Data Recovery Questions
. The Cambridge tape reading facility with a capacity of 576 tapes per day ($250k/month) is this THE main facility, or will there be more?
. What is the current backlog volume of tapes to be read, and what is the expected volume for the years to come?
. Can you talk about sole-sourcing deal with NASA, and any other new/future data recovery clients?
Miscellaneous Questions
. What do you plan to do with the oil tanker?
. Will you be visiting the Great Pacific Garbage Patch anytime soon?
S.
Good idea.. better for us to aggregate our questions than require our very busy CEO to sift through all our emails! Thanks for offering to do that zardiw.
S.
And, would it be feasible for us to submit some questions to JBI management in-advance of the call, so as to keep the CC Q&A session (if any) to a minimum?
S.
It's because JBI's unique "ISIN" number is US88575M2008 (which remains constant independent of the ticker symbol)
S.
I just had a look at the Pak-It pricing! Wow.
http://www.pakit.com/Catalog/PDFs/PAKIT-Pricing0108.pdf
Not only are the Pak-It products "green" (ground and water pollutants officially rated as "none", biodegradable, etc.) but the cost is in the range of 20c to 90c per gallon (after adding water). That's about 20-50% of the price for the equivalent product at a retail store (of course you are buying bulk from 20-50 times a single bottle).
I see a lot of potential there, not just in the industrial space but if they can target consumers too. They could even afford to beef-up their margin IMO.
So P2O looking good, Pak-It looking good... but nobody's done much analysis on Javaco. Anyone have idea about that line of business?
S.
Another touted advantage is the quality of the output: pump-grade diesel with far below legal sulfur limits and requiring little/no refining. Also, JBI claims you can mix types of plastic and they don't need to be washed. Not to mention 7.5 tons/hour.
Again, it is expected that forthcoming tests shall demystify all of this.
In the schematic on their website (and on this site's iBox), there is no mention of where the residue (dirt, metals, food, other impurities) is extracted.
S.
JBI calls it self-powered because one of the by-products of the process is methane gas (or in that range...butane, etc.), and that gas is used to power/heat the system.
We're waiting for the full-scale tests to begin, but "self-powered" doesn't seem like too much of a stretch when you consider you're getting hydro-carbons out. Hydrocarbon fuels have one of the highest energy-densities (energy / mass).
S.
While I think the zero-energy input is different, it's not really clear how much actual savings this is.. i.e. how much cheaper the JBI process is. JBI claims that the net energy input is actually negative (since with the methane output from the conversion that is used to power the process, there is actually more created than is needed), and that means you could generate electricity or something from excess gas.
However it's not clear how or if the JBI processors capture or use this excess gas.
What's also not clear, is the actual cost savings from the net-negative energy input, because let's face it.. electricity is still dirt cheap. So Envion's microwave technology probably doesn't cost any measurable amount more than does JBIs. Both (Envion and JBI) are claiming $10/barrel as their cost-to-produce.
But, let's not forget .. JBI's processor is 200k, Envion's plant cost $5m to build. And... JBI's franchise model means self-financed growth. That to me is the most compelling part about their approach, not the catalyst or the energy savings part.
S.
In Europe, it costs some municipalities 103 Euros per ton (for somebody to take the plastic and dispose of it properly), which is over $150 (i.e. almost twice the price quoted in that article). And consumer recycling is very high too -- 90% in Switzerland, for example.
Can't wait for international franchises!
S.
Indeed - it's all icing on the cake for JBI if oil keeps rising, and most believe it will.
S.
OK, so then take the previous P2O revenue projections, and add 10%.
S.
ok, knickers!
If John thinks he's excited... he ought to know there are quite a few of us shareholders whose panties are in a knot just waiting to hear the results of the P2O processor!
S.
Not to mention the $5m price tag to build it. That's 17 thousand tons of plastic, or 3 years worth! The JBI processors pay for themselves after 6 weeks!
S.
Regarding revenue estimates for P2O...
In the article guzaling posted a few days ago (link below), in an interview with J.B. it states:
"The initial plant is expected to get through up to 20 tons of scrap per day."
So if we assume "up to" here doesn't refer to a "rated output" but rather a realistic and expected volume for a working day:
20 tons = 20000 kg = $6000 worth
so 25 JV's running 50 processors = $300k / working day
with 50% profit and 65% franchise fees, that adds up to about $22m / year in JBI revenue for the 25 JV's they're setting up now.
S.
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/plasticsincanada/news/industry/article.jsp?content=20090924_110713_6584