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Haha ... and I won't hesitate a second to buy more of Kndi and Any with that kinda money at current valuation. To each his own RD.
If I am not mistaken the 5 largest stake holders are :
Rockhill Investors (largest holder as a group)
Solomon (has A shares)
Nisse
ECAB
Dan
Together with the other large holders you just name they may hold at least 2/3 of shares imo.
I doubt that these large holders will agree to sell at anything less than $100 per share in the near future. They all know well the LT valuation of this company. JMO
I saw that too. But what matters more to me is his assumption of 15x current MC (market cap) as a possible buyout price. That kinda makes sense to me although it's a tortuous way to look at things imo. I would expect the MC (=P =price) to be about 12x annual rev run rate ( 12x sales or 12xS) since for a RRR growth of 300- 400% the market normally assigns the stock a valuation P based on P/S of 12-16. So MC = 12x S.The b/o offer is then usually priced at a 20-40% premium to MC, resulting in a b/o offer of 12 x 1.3= 15x S. Note that if we meet the RRR of 160M in Q4 projected by Mgmt, that's an annual growth of = 3.44x or 344%.
another interesting point one can draw from this discussion is the divi that we can expect in 2017. If Siaf matches somewhat the average divi payout ratio of the 7 divi paying OSE companies I looked at, average payout= 15 (PE) x 3%(yield) = 45% of eps, then we can expect (???) a payout of 45% x 2016 eps of $8 = $3.6 per share. Even if they match it just halfway, we are still looking at $1.8 per shares or a yield of 1.5% on pps 120. Not bad for a start. 18 months from today...
yes. But look at 2014 Cash Flow statement "dividend paid" (5th line from bottom). They paid out over 4x as much divi in 2014 compared to 2013 with almost equal rev and gross profit (see Inc Statement). So the GM was not the problem. Looks like they had also a huge special divi payout back in 2011, so every 3 years while the years inbetween the divi was either zero or very low. So an erratic divi history that could explain the super high yield of 8.8% and a superhigh P/E reported in the data quoted by Redbull. The P/E may thus be extra high due to the resulting extra low Net Income "E" in that ratio.
http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=MHG:NO&dataset=cashFlow&period=A¤cy=native
even at a fee of 340K USD? I thought we are cash starved...
of course. Money attracts money. JMO
anybody knows what the "introduction course" is for? If they apply by Sep 30 for OSE, the introduction course is scheduled for Oct 1 but it takes more than two months (Dec 10?) to be on OSE if approved? like a kindergarten first-day class lol ?
If I also disregard Marine Harvest' s very high PE that skews the average PE to the high side ( I guess MH attracts lots of income investors with its skyhigh special divi that also boosts its pps to the stratosphere!) I get a more reasonable average PE of 16.56 for the other 6 companies. So we can probably expect an avg PE of 15-17 and yield of 3-4% for the average fish company listed on OSE.
True NJM. Those 3 farms are all in Enping not too far from each other. If I recall correctly FF1 and the open dam they used to raise sleepy cod for us are also not too far from these farms.
Thx Redbull for the prompt update. I recall that Marine Harvest , the largest company of the 9 OSE fish companies, paid a hefty special divi that artificially inflated its yield. So if I disregard its yield, the average P/E of the 7 companies with a positive earning in that list is 23.22 with a divi yield of 3.72%. Impressive results.
My conclusion from the discussion back inApril with Redbull and some others who provided data on PE and dividend yield of fish companies listed on OSE was that they tend to trade at an average decent PE between 20 and 30 and a divi yield of about 2%. Maybe Redbull or Trevor Trout can give us a more recent update on these companies?
boots on the ground literally... it will rain seven straight days in Guangdong. Hope you guys enjoy the trip though!
Swede: correct, it's not the deadline. I took RB's prior post on the subject by face value. The deadline is actually Sep 30. About 2 weeks after the planned CC. Close enough for me to hope that Bertil etal. is making good on their original promise to get us on OSE before the year ends.
Agreed. I realize just that when somebody pointed out that Sep 17, the day of the second CC within a few weeks, is also the deadline for applying for OSE this year. Just as Bertil promised to us when he took office. It makes also sense to have FD now on board to present an all star BOD to our new exchange. They must feel pretty confident about OSE to schedule the CC before even applying!
and you hear a guy with a heavy accent and speaking long confusing things that's him IIRC...
hah much better...
why multiply by 15?
go to company's website then:
- Investor Relations
- News and Press Releases
- Second item: Sino Agro Reschedules CC (with link to Webcast)
- W
- at bottom: hold "Control" key while clicking on link
Voila...
Anyway Bravo to have FD on board now. Some one who will push that in 12-18 months the company will be cash rich while growing its core business which is RAS. Feb 2017 can't come fast enough for me. I want to see my well deserved divi finally paid dammit.
I wouldn't take anything less than $100/sh to make up for the much larger loss of divi that I would be getting for decades. At an eps= $20 in say 5 years and a modest payout ratio of 20%, each share would earn at least $4 divi per year. If you own just 10k shs you would lose $40k income per year. What if the eps increases an average 5-10% per year for many years after that? Even at $100/sh and 10k shs you get $1M and that's it. Would rather keep my shares forever tbh.
oh we do lighter roofs than that too... just take a breeze to blow it off imo.
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/v/t1.0-9/11173373_878226272241539_2956227547413090461_n.jpg?oh=05b084e4870de72960cce56d3d37cd45&oe=566F34AA
doubt that a huge light roof like that can withstand any major wind nevermind a hurricane blowing at 100+ mph ... any flat or curved structure exposed to an air flow on both sides will act like an air foil that can lift a very heavy Boeing 747 IMO. They'd better be careful.
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/v/t1.0-9/11705281_914945755236257_3854367056197917327_n.jpg?oh=62d3d2e855d0c8a6aa56efe210899dce&oe=565F545C
that's something that the tour participants should ask S about. I donot believe S would have responded like that if there were truly a major relationship with CTM unless he is a damn good actor who doesn't care about credibility LOL.
As I recall from the CC Solomon confirmed on a follow up question that CTM is unrelated to Siaf. He first didnt even recognize the name of the company lol.
that's music to my ears Empty....
Hyper-converged systems look to preempt VMware's plans:
http://searchdatacenter.techtarget.com/news/4500252452/Hyper-converged-systems-look-to-preempt-VMwares-plans?utm_medium=EM&asrc=EM_NLN_46988982&utm_campaign=20150831_Hyper-converged%20systems%20move%20from%20data%20centers%20to%20ROBO%20_szaharoff&utm_source=NLN&track=NL-1811&ad=902644&src=902644
Didn't they say that the divi plan will be announced by the end of the year? So why expect it now?
I like that they have recognized the problems and have a way of mitigating them unlike many other companies who just manufacture some products and sell them but have no control on distribution or retail.
"As an agriculture company, revenue is subject to weather conditions, commodity and food prices, and seasonality,” he said. "Each detracted from second quarter financial results. We are structurally mitigating these factors by ramping up our distribution arm, which is unaffected by all three, and which will make significant contributions to the top and bottom lines, starting in Q3."
yeah the Chinese Consumer index has actually been on the rise acc. to the post below. Seems like the average chinese consumer doesn't own much stocks anyway. Bodes well for Siaf.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116510501
That just means no major change in total short interest in that period. But there was clearly some strong covering on certain days like on Aug 14 ( probably by weak shorts) that was offset by continued shorting by diehard shorts on other days. Just like many weak longs may capitulate on a day like today (margin calls, desperation...) while some diehard or new longs may seize the opportunity to add at the bottom... Anyway it will be interesting to see if the short ratio will be much less than 0.30 today (indicating net covering) as I predicted when the chart comes out tomorrow.
same here Empty. But I have often been wrong.
Yup shorts are a heterogenous group just like longs and some are pi&$&@ in their pants just waiting for the first major opp to cover... The short ratio chart shows that on Aug 14 when 1.7M shs were traded. I think we will see the same today.
Well said Mac. Personally I am expecting a little more than 25M in Q3 knowing of at least 4 new rev sources that were not there until Q3 had started. But even with 25M in Q3 that's a sequential rev increase of 35%. That's a significant ramp in my book. And the pps will react accordingly come Nov 15 even if we donot get any big news before ... JMO
"Chinese confidence - get this - rose this month": interesting Financial Times article saying that the worldwide financial meltdown will most likely have little effect on the chinese consumer.
copy from another board:
Take this as encouraging news: what happens in the stock market has little correlation with Chinese consumer sentiment.
The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose for a third straight month in August, despite volatility and steep declines in the nation's stock market.
The score rose 1.8 per cent to 116.5 this month, marking a new high since May 2014. MNI said household finances continue to improve, boosting sentiment for buying stuff.
One caveat, and a fairly big one: the survey was conducted before the renminbi was devalued on August 11, which played a big role in sparking an emerging market sell-off that spread around the globe. It's also before the Tianjin explosion.
Nevertheless the results are consistent with the FT's own on-the-ground reporting in China. It's anecdotal, yes, but the key conclusion: consumers are "unfazed" by the market rout.
As Capital Economics was at pains to point out during Black Monday, "only one in 30 people in China owns equities." The ripple effects to the real economy when China's market was inflating were small; so too for the decline.
yesterday shorts stepped up their shorting activity as one may observe from the increased bashing effort on this board and others. The short ratio turned out to be 0.416. Any short ratio value above 0.30 usually indicates prevalent net shorting while a value below 0.30 indicates net covering. For example on Aug 14, the day after the three forms F-3 were filed (one was the offering of $40M of stock and warrants and another was the registration of 6.2M shares for sale by certain "selling shareholders") the stock plummeted to an intraday low of 2.55 on 1.7M volume and the ratio was about 0.17, indicating net covering as many shorts took advantage of the low pps to cover.
http://shortvolume.com/chart_engine/draw_chart.php?Symbol=ANY&TimeRange=30&
Is that the 4.47M shs filed on the Form 3 I asked about today? If yes why McFarlane's shs are new shs and the other shs are old shs?
while reviewing one of the 3 F-3 forms filed on Aug 13 I noticed that of the 4.45M shs to be registered for possible sale by so called "selling shareholders" there are 2.77M shs to be offered as registered NEW shs to McFarlane Family Ventures at a price of $3.98/sh. I have two questions here if anybody can help answer.
1) is it correct to say that these 2.77M new shs offered to McFarlane as registered shs will be dilutive (added to basic o/s) while the remaining 1.68M shs being registered are non-dilutive since they were offered to private investors as unregistered shs?
2) does that mean that Company is getting $11M new money selling these shs to McFarlane at $3.98/sh?
Here is from page 9 of the F-3:
Beneficial Ownership (1)
Number of Percent Number of Percent
Shares of Shares of
Beneficially Class Number of Beneficially Class
Owned Prior Prior Shares Owned After
Name of Selling to the to the Offered After this this
Shareholder (2) Offering Offering Hereby (3) Offering Offering
MacFarlane Family Ventures LLC (4) — — 2,774,620 — —
GMP Securities LP ITF Lynn Factor (5) 1,757,390 4.2% 1,000,000 757,390 1.8%
Countryman Investments Ltd. (6) 1,373,500 3.3% 300,000 1,073,500 2.5%
Greenlaw International LP (7) 902,938 2.1% 220,000 682,938 1.6%
Laidar Holdings Ltd (8) 110,000 * 100,000 10,000 *
Delbrook Enhanced Return Fund (9) 315,000 * 20,000 255,000 *
Delbrook Capital Advisors Inc. (10) 315,000 * 40,000 255,000 *
just trying to be on the conservative side when estimating Q3 rev. I do hope to see small rev contributions this Q from GW/Az but they need to announce it before the end of this month.