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good call Fluid . 1M+ shs bought by a Nordic hedge fund counts as good news for me :)
looks like all the buying came from DNM today?
http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/ppaper.php?paper=SIAF-ME.MERK
Thx Benoit MM and Bellen. So ESO (SEB) has been the second largest net buyer in that period.Not sure if they represent new investors or old ones on Avanza or Nordnet who added recently on Merkur. Any idea?
is ESO (or SEB) Swedbank?
don't see SEB on the list. But ESO is also a big buyer so far. What broker/group are they?
210191 134418 75773
So it's mainly CAR against DDB?
possibly. A guy who is smart enough to register his fund in Cayman Island doesnt need to wait for Merkur to buy Siaf.
cool we need new eyeballs!
Smart thing to do indeed. News like Fredly, Incaret, Hanssen ... putting their own money into Siaf should resonate with many Scandinavians maybe even better than the Swedbanks analysis with EVs and EBITs imo...
Thx Fister. The table shows Apollo Limited's citizenship as CYM. What country is that ?
Probably not. Who feeds the prawn or fish when all the workers go home for the Chinese New Year lol?
If the 327k+ shs all belong to Fredly he must be the largest Siaf non-insider holder I personally am aware of. If he bought them all on Merkur that's really good news.
Is Apollo Asset Limited a fund with many individual investors or is it more or less a one-man entity owned by Fredly? A Google search shows no valuable result.
The table shows that BNY Mellon only owns 6.6% of Merkur listed shares, that's only about 3.4% of all Siaf outstanding shares.
another good question for Eril Ahl or Peter.
yes many debatable assumptions. Good to have conservative estimates that one can upgrade later on.
I guess the group around Fall-of-Italy who until a few months ago posted on this board.
no. I think he was just comparing Mellon's position (6%) at Merkur with RHI's on OTC that clearly places RHI at third place behind Avanza at 37% and Nordnet at 25%. We know that RHI owned about 10 to 12% of the company a long while ago but that was with the Italian group.
maybe somebody in Sweden should ask our Swedbank analyst who said he had just visited the MF in Dec. Gaard should know what the mess was really about. Also why he seems to be confident that production will increase to 50,000 MT by 2020 while RD expects just half of that is achievable. Better than us all secondguessing...
I would be interested to know if that's the case or did Mellon buy new shares for themselves (ie. for one of their funds) ? If latter is the case then it's definitely a very good sign of institutional interest. Anybody has a clue?
is RHI still shooting for 15-20% ownership of Siaf as you said last year even without the Italian group?
agree RD.
Assuming 2016 rev of 457M seems like ultra conservative to me. Even if the 2015 expected rev of 432M is correct I would expect 2016 rev to come in at about 432 x 1.4 = 605M conservatively based on a modest (for this company) 40% yoy growth. Also their model assumes "project development" profit to fall from 30M in 2015 to 12M in 2016 to zero after 2016. Do they really not make any money developing the MF to full capacity in the next 20 years? I doubt it.
I also donot understand how they can say : "if each 10,000t adds USD~38M to EBIT" based on $17/kg ASP of prawn. I would think : 10,000 x 17k x 50% NM ~ 85M x 75% stake = 64M profit plus resale of 10%(?) on total = 8.5M, totaling about 73M EBIT per year even if MF production grows only 10,000 MT per year after Phase 1 is complete as they assume. Am I correct?
yes Marius Gaard's name also appears on page 1 of Swedbank's report. But it's nice to see Analyst Coverage section added on Siaf's website :) Is he a well known name as an analyst in Sweden/Norway? The report also shows that Swedbank is Siaf's financial advisor wrt listing on Merkur.
Interesting to see Swedbank assume MF production growing linearly by 10,000 MT per year for the next 20 years reaching a max of 200,000 MT by 2035 or so. If I recall correctly the MF was designed for a max annual production of 300,000 MT in Year 20 right?
I would really like to see RD comment on Swedbank's analysis which seems pretty conservative and "rock bottom' type to me although it is based on the assumption of Siaf owning 75% of the MF from 2016 on at a cost of 9M shares extra dilution. Since I have saved RD's original analysis of June 2015, I went back and compared the bottom line results re. eps of his analysis with Swedbank's (SwB). Here is a quick comparison of results of both prediction models wrt fully diluted eps for the next 5 years:
Year SwB RD
2015 2.8 6.5
2016 1.8 9.4
2017 2.0 12.6
2018 2.7 16.4
2019 3.4 20.2
2020 4.2 na
Would be interesting to know who or which group holds that many shares through BNY Mellon and why they decided to convert the shares? Somebody mentioned Nisse may have converted half of his shares. We know that Dan Ritchy (?) also owns many shs but why would he convert them?
Thanks for sharing the info Bellen.
Amazing indeed that Bank of New York Mellon at over 600k shares owns twice as much as Carnegie and Swedbank together and we haven't heard any mention of them on this board if I recall. Looks like Merkur has attracted some big name institutions so far. Nice.
He sure has his moods imo but I agree with you on that.
I remember (and I may be wrong) a few years ago Jan04 (our Belgian early and large Siaf investor) told me of some Brazilians in his group that were interested in Siaf. Not sure if it's the same folks but it wouldn't surprise me that the Martians could very well have come from Brazil.
Right. It's part of their know how. But MF took it to another dimension that they were probably not prepared to deal with imo.
nice find indeed RD. Perhaps the Chinese were using the method to build the land reclamation and airbase on the disputed Spratley island at the South China sea?
Agreed Doug. The same middle class consumer that also took China from a blip on the radar with less than 1/10 th of total electric car production compared to the US just two or 3 years ago to now the #1 in the world in 2015. How do I know? Because I am invested in a Chinese company that is widely considered as the leader of the ongoing Chinese EV revolution and is also the top producer of PEV (pure electric vehicles) of the past 2 years. And no, the people who bought the PEVs are not the super rich in China. I think the same will apply to Siafs products.
They may need another $80M or so in 2017 to complete Phase 1 of MF as RD has often pointed out. But after that the MF is self sufficient. They may also need more cash now to buy WC, PF1 and PF2. So I would not be surprised to see some more dilution in near future unless they get a bond. Hard to spin off something they donot majority own right? jmo.
thanks Snow. Is it possible that Carnegie is buying for some big clients ahead of some coverage or possibly loan?
Can someone give us some more info about Carnegie? Is it a major Nordic fund or bank or broker? TIA
Ok the analysis seems to be based mainly on some adjusted EV to EBIT ratio taking into account "trade comps" of peers and a healthy China discount. I see typical multiples of 6x to 8x which can in some extent be considered the equivalent of P/E mutiples. So yes it's not a direct P/E approach but sort of (since EV is comparable to Share Price or Market Cap although it is a more comprehensive financial valuation metrics that includes things like cash, debt and working capital...) and EBIT is comparable to E or net income. But more importantly it's a conservative approach that can be revised or upgraded as we go.
What P/E (or PEG) was assumed for 2020 in their analysis? A seafood company that can grow production by 10,000t per year for the next 10-20 years (based only on one asset) certainly deserves a double digit P/E at least in par with the peers on OSE which is 15-20 if I recall correctly. So even if the share count may be 50 to 100% higher by 2020 compared to today the pps may still grow at a higher rate than the EBIT itself. So I think there is room for an upgrade of the 2020 PT in Swedbank's projection.
can somebody post a link to the amendment? The only amendment i can see relates to Nordnet's filing of 13G dated 01/19/16.
RD : so does a small buy by an insider mean a bond or merger or spinoff may happen soon lol?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119968894
ah ok I found it now. The stated PT is most likely a ST target imo. No mention of a 2020 PT imo.